Player stats, sales, and reception speculation thread

  • Thread starter Thread starter user746383
  • Start date Start date
it's a delicTe balance. snowballing is the reward for winning the actual true game of civ, which is getting to the inflection point of the snowball. hard to point the finger too hard at 7 when in 6 you could pretty much autowin on turn 1 (Peter with a strong tundra map). at least in earlier civs they thrw everyone declaring war on you. in later civs, again really getting bad with 6, the ai just seemed to give up - lost the will to civ, padme style.
 
In player number news, the drops have continued since the start of the month, and we're now just scraping over 6,000 concurrent players at peak and 3,000 players at trough.

At the current ratings of decline we could well see our first sub 6000 peak and sub 3000 trough days next week.

What I'm taking from this is we still haven't actually found a floor for the games audience. The last couple of months frequent patches and dlc releases and sales have artificially bumped numbers. Feels like the Devs are consciously trying to defibrillate some life into the player base, and whenever they stop the pulse starts weakening again.
 
Ok buddy, I'll leave this at me not agreeing that intent matters in terms of whether something is or is not a problem.
Fair enough! I meant in terms of solving it, just to clarify. Not in terms of identifying it.
 
Yes, they'll probably hurt simultaneous player number, but I don't think they will have any significant effect on Civ7 sales.
Is this because you think there is no crossover? Or because you think that Civ VII sales are kind of “complete” or fully realized as of now due to the amount of time since launch?
 
Is this because you think there is no crossover? Or because you think that Civ VII sales are kind of “complete” or fully realized as of now due to the amount of time since launch?
There's some crossover, but there are always some crossovers, no one plays Civilization exclusively. So, it's kind of included into sales estimations - some people will move their attention to those games, but some will move their attention from other games to Civilization.

So, basic sale flow will continue and big sales will more depend on discount actions.

EDIT: I reread and it doesn't look quite clear. The idea is that some people who already own Civ7 will switch to those new games at least for the time and we'll see it on player counts, but those people already have Civ7 and without new content this has no effect on sales. The next big milestone for Civ7 will probably be once they'll have next DLC and big discounts, which would probably be around November - December (I don't think they'll skip the holiday season, so the bigger question is whether they'll pack first part of the DLC there or the second one).
 
Last edited:
Personally since purchasing Civ 7, I have subsequently bought Victoria 3, Anno 1800 and numerous CK3 DLC.. however I think if Civ 7 had lived up to my expectations I would not have bought any of those. It was the disappointment in Civ 7 that meant I went hunting after other games that might scratch that itch.
 
Thank you for the thoughtful reply.

Like others have said, snowballing does seem to mean different things for different people. For me, it just means steamrolling the AI when I have 2x or more higher yields than any AI player. The other issues you mention like pacing, balance, and structure are separate issues that can lead to snowballing, but they aren't exactly snowballing.

I do agree with the late game issues you mention. I hate that the AI, when is racing towards a cultural victory sells its great works to me. Or that when I'm on the verge of a science victory, it invades with GDRs and instead of pillaging Spaceports, Campuses, and razing cities, it just moves the GDRs around like a fool. Or that it can't use anti air defense at all. But are these examples of snowballing, or just incompetent AI?

It’s definitely a matter of personal taste. Personally, I still see balance and pacing as fundamental issues of snowballing — if you're aiming for a challenge at a specific difficulty level (let’s call it X), then snowballing disrupts that. A large portion of the game ends up being played either well below or far above that intended X level, creating an instrisic balance issue. That said, as others have pointed out, some players enjoy that sense of dominance or rapid progression, while instead I prefer a balanced challenge through all the game.

As for the late-game experience, there's no doubt that Civ VI (and Civ VII, and even Civ V) struggles with AI performance, but that’s a consistent issue across all eras, not just the late game. The real problem with late-game content caused by snowballing isn’t the AI itself; this becomes especially clear in multiplayer, where you're up against human opponents who are far more competent than any Civ AI, and the problem I mentioned stay the same.
Even against humans, features like air combat tend to feel underwhelming. You often unlock them too late to make a meaningful impact, or the game is already decided by then, so they’re rarely used to their full potential. The air combat is intended to be played with fighter to explore and defend vs others air units, with bombers to be used vs cities and improvements, with aircraft carriers for the seas, but none of this matters because at that moment someone will have already won and/ or will simply be able to steamroll the opponent (I repeat, I chose air combat of Civ VI as an example, but this works with MANY others mechanics and with many other games).
This issue is somewhat mitigated in scenarios with a late-game start, where players can’t snowball from the Ancient Era and are forced to engage with modern mechanics more directly, making clear that this is a direct consequence of snowballing.


Yes, they'll probably hurt simultaneous player number, but I don't think they will have any significant effect on Civ7 sales.

You keep saying that player counts don’t matter, which we’ve already discussed and I still find that idea really absurd. Especially in this case, it seems quite clear to me that:

- Not everyone in the world has already bought Civ VII, so more competition likely means fewer new players will choose it, especially if the competitor will have positive reviews while Civ VII lately struggle to reach 50%. Civ VII (like every other game) has not been created with the idea to be sold only on day 1.
- If the goal is to sell DLCs and expansions—which has been the core business model for the Civ series over the past decade—then having an active and engaged player base is essential. That becomes much harder if similar games are released and draw attention away, potentially leaving almost no one playing Civ VII.

The only potential upside I can see is that if EU5 or Endless Legend 2 are released and well received, they might draw renewed attention to the genre as a whole—which could benefit other similar games, including Civ VII. However, even in that scenario, it still seems obvious to me that Civ VII would struggle. Given how poorly it’s been received so far, it would likely be the last title people recommend among the genre.

Honestly, saying “if similar games come out and are well received while Civ VII continues to get poor reviews, it’ll be in trouble” feels like basic logic. You don’t need a degree in economics to see that—it’s just common sense. I mean no offense, but sometimes it feels like you’re avoiding the reality that the Civ series is facing serious challenges right now and keep defending the most absurd ideas to avoid accepting how bad the actual situation is.
 
Endless Legend 2 probably won't have a very big impact on the player count. EU5 & Anno 117 both releasing within 10 days of each other in November willy likely have some impact.
 
Week 32 of Civ VIIs life has just ended. Week 15 to Week 30 remained mostly consistent, fluctuating between a low of 7,903 in Week 19 & a high of 9,828 in Week 21. The past 2 weeks have both been new lows at 7,710 & 7,298 respectively. So far the average player count has seen a drop of 8% this month. In comparison, Civ VI has seen a 5% drop while Civ V has seen a 2% drop. Presumably this reflects the average age of each of these Civ games as kids go back to school. This won't just affect Civ, but Steam as a whole. If we take a look at 2024, the first week of September '24 had 234,000 less players on average than the last week of August '24. The first two weeks of September '24 had 300,000 less players on average than the last two weeks of August '24.

1758198363700.png
 
In player number news, the drops have continued since the start of the month, and we're now just scraping over 6,000 concurrent players at peak and 3,000 players at trough.

At the current ratings of decline we could well see our first sub 6000 peak and sub 3000 trough days next week.

What I'm taking from this is we still haven't actually found a floor for the games audience. The last couple of months frequent patches and dlc releases and sales have artificially bumped numbers. Feels like the Devs are consciously trying to defibrillate some life into the player base, and whenever they stop the pulse starts weakening again.

The number of reviews have also declined in the past week, suggesting that people who bought the game when it was on sale may have, on average, reviewed it quickly rather than waiting a while.

The positive/negative has gone back to being closer to July numbers, still negative but not as negative as during the discount period. Total reviews over the past seven days are 71 positive, 95 negative, 42.8% positive rating.
 
I doubt “kids going back to school” has anything to do with games that are older than those kids.

The industry is 40+ years old and people still think it’s primarily still a kids activity. Guess that’s why we get slop like civ7.
 
I doubt “kids going back to school” has anything to do with games that are older than those kids.

The industry is 40+ years old and people still think it’s primarily still a kids activity. Guess that’s why we get slop like civ7.
I started playing Civ 1 when I was 10 (or thereabouts). This isn't a great argument.
 
The industry is 40+ years old and people still think it’s primarily still a kids activity. Guess that’s why we get slop like civ7.
You're on to something here. I get the impression all the talk about "micromanaging = bad" and "streamlining = good" is for people with attention spans shorter than a tweet. For me, turn-based strategy games are appealing precisely because they can have strategic depth and you can take your sweet time to ponder what the best choice is. Real time strategy games move fast so generally, for me at least, they seem to have less strategic depth. Many players didn't like managing workers in Civ6, but to me, workers bring strategic diversity to the game.
 
I doubt “kids going back to school” has anything to do with games that are older than those kids.

The industry is 40+ years old and people still think it’s primarily still a kids activity. Guess that’s why we get slop like civ7.
Aye seen it all now, average player count effected by school kids ! lol

Also not sure what part o the world this dude is from my kid was back in school by the last two weeks of August..
 
Last edited:
You keep saying that player counts don’t matter, which we’ve already discussed and I still find that idea really absurd. Especially in this case, it seems quite clear to me that
I'm not saying that they don't matter. I'm saying a lot of other things about them. Like they have pretty weak correlation with sales or that we can't agree on which particular metric to use (low/top/average, daily/weekly), etc.

Here is the particular case demonstrating this weak correlation, because this external event affects player numbers directly (many people will play those new games instead of Civ7), but without any clear effect on Civ7 sales (are there any people who will not buy Civ7, because of those games? maybe, but I doubt there are many of them and we don't have any info on this connection anyway).
 
Aye seen it all now, average player count effected by school kids ! lol

Also not sure what part o the world this dude is from my kid were back at school by the last two weeks of school.
Your kid went back at school by the last two weeks of school? What?

I doubt “kids going back to school” has anything to do with games that are older than those kids.

The industry is 40+ years old and people still think it’s primarily still a kids activity. Guess that’s why we get slop like civ7.
If you don't think students aged 10 - 25 across most of Europe, China, Russia & a lot of US states who all go back to school in early September and therefore have less time to play games doesn't affect the player count then I don't know what to tell you. It's common sense.

Can you explain why the Steam in-game player counts consistently drop in early September compared to late August if not for students?
I started playing Civ 1 when I was 10 (or thereabouts). This isn't a great argument.
These people don't think gamers who are students under the age of 25 exist. :hammer2:
 
I doubt “kids going back to school” has anything to do with games that are older than those kids.

The industry is 40+ years old and people still think it’s primarily still a kids activity. Guess that’s why we get slop like civ7.
I started playing Civ 1 when I was 10 (or thereabouts). This isn't a great argument.
I started Civ 1 at 13. Additionally, ages 16-20 usually have more disposable income because they have a paycheck and usually no mortgage or much of a financial responsibility. There are exceptions to the rule, but generally speaking most media aims for that demographic for a reason. As well, kids are more likely to want "Roblox roBucks" (read:digital media) as birthday and Christmas presents. Those of us older with kids and mortgages and utility bills as well as time/social obligation responsibilities usually dont have as much time to game and have a hard time justifying the purchase. Whereas kids are also more impulsive and also feed into hype faster usually.

Adult gamers are also a factor, but the weight of minors as a demographic should be taken note of.
 
Back
Top Bottom