-Prethread- NCNESIOT: Blackened Skies

Crezth, Nuke - ok, I see your point. Although we didn't consciously plan that the situation Europe develops the way it did, I could see why in the eyes of Italy it looks like barbarians are at their gates now. Probably, they've got their own version of Winston Churchill for a prime-minister in this timeline.

That's the idea. In fact, rather like Britain, Italy's primary wargoal is to ensure that this never happens again, and that's a far, far cry from a white peace.

To be fair, I feel Bolivias current state is entirely my fault. I sent my orders first now, and that had obvious consequences as the GMs were forced to play mye nation for me. I just pretend the emperor was busy living the good life in the palace.

Tbh though, I'm fairly tired of warring. Not because I don't want to, but because my army is small and exhausted, my industry is insignificant and I am literally millimeters from erupting into civil war.

I wish I could've been the imperialist tyrant of south-america you all wish for me to be, but alas, my stats are against me.

Nerve gas is nice war deter and infantry blob waster tho ;^))))

Shhh! Don't tell them it's nerve gas! ;)

As a heads-up, Tolni is convinced his chances of winning (being defined as anything but total loss, bafflingly) were literally 0%, so don't bother dispensing logic to the contrary.
 
I publically denounce Tolni and Jackelgull for so ingloriously betraying the character of their nation in instantly pursuing a peace that only undermines them. >:C

j/k but srsly guys you could have at least tried.
 
Orders are due in 36ish hours. If you have not received an answer to your question, please let me know via PM (I think we got everyone), I know I still need to help you Masada
 
I publically denounce Tolni and Jackelgull for so ingloriously betraying the character of their nation in instantly pursuing a peace that only undermines them. >:C

j/k but srsly guys you could have at least tried.

I was planning on giving the Winston Churchhill "we shall fight on the beaches" speech up until the formation of the GNU. And then it all fell apart with that and I realized it was either let the combined forces of the other Mexicos + US aid roll right over me, or join them and form a semi unified Mexico with significantly weaker opponents. Now I am working on writing a story for the Great Betrayal in which a Commune general stages a coup on the president with support from senior party officials to sign the treaty and "Let the fear be over".
 
Booooo
 
There's no President in Mexico to coup. There's an Emperor, a Cabinet and National Assembly. All of whom the Commune either wanted them dead on principle or actively tried to kill. So no dice there.

The GNU hold in the south is shaky so there is scope for Communard "generals" but only as pro-GNU southern warlords (sorry Governors) who wanted to continue to enjoy the good life. Nobody likes a traitor who by definition has to hunt them down, so their former comrades would want them dead.

Never mind the fact that the GNU has its own much more reliable troops. The Republicans didn't as of the start of last turn... but Riveria will have rebuilt his following. The Commune occupation would have made that easy. Really, the same would be true of all the other notables who have returned home. Socialist revolutionaries are really good at creating enemies.

The one coup that would make some sense would be Riveria overthrowing the Emperor. He's got good links to most of the GNUs army and a broad enough political base to make things work. It's something the United States would probably be okay with.
 
There's no President in Mexico to coup. There's an Emperor, a Cabinet and National Assembly. All of whom the Commune either wanted them dead on principle or actively tried to kill them. So no dice there. Given how shaky the GNU hold in the south is and how little they'd be trusted, what Communard "generals" there are would only really make sense as pro-GNU southern warlords (sorry Governors) who wanted to continue to enjoy the good life. Their former comrades would likely hate them rather a lot. Never mind the fact that the GNU has its own much more reliable troops. Riveria' boys died for him and like any good warlord (sorry Minister/Governor) he will have rebuilt his following. After a Commune occupation, it wouldn't even have been that hard to do so. The same would be true of all the other notables who have returned home. The one coup that would make some sense would be Riveria overthrowing the Emperor. He's got good links to most of the GNUs army and a broad enough political base to make things work.

I'm talking about for the Commune before I signed the treaty, not the GNU.
 
Sorry I misread what you wrote. My thoughts on Mexico stand, generally though.
 
I don't understand why everyone is still bickering about the God-Emperor of Mayankind's land. Don't you all know he can literally crush mountains in his giant hands? Why would you risk his appendagey wrath?
 
I don't know if the Commune, being essentially a worker mass movement would have the generals and structure that would allow that kind of coup anyway. Maybe after a statebuilding has begun but the people filling out their armies are likely fairly dedicated leftisys and aren't going to be receptive to "Let's overthrow the left wing government and surrender to the hard right!" Given that they defected and formed the Communist Party when their leadership tried.

Maybe if the general trying was some kind of super war hero or something, I don't know. I just can't see where the basis for such a coup would come from.
 
Workers can't have been more than a fraction of the movement. Modern Oaxaca and Chiapas are still majority rural. Guerrero is like 60% urban but that's a recent thing. Hell something like 20% of Oxacana is illiterate now and was well over 40% in the 1980s. The majority of the movement have to have been illiterate peasants. The party elites might be orthodox left wingers but peasants tend to be less than doctrinaire, if not outright indifferent. Seizing land, not paying taxes/doing corvee and being left alone are usually the limits of their political horizons. Having to contribute manpower to the commune's military was probably resented the moment the landlords/tax men/usurers were dead or fled. I'm also ignoring the Church issue.
 
Communists =/= urban workers. It is noteworthy that major Communist revolutions have mostly taken place in countries with a far more important rural worker sector than urban.

In Spain itself, the Communists were only really important in the south and center, where industry was almost non-existent. In industrial Catalonia, Anarchism was the thing.
 
I don't see how that's relevant? Sure Russia was an agrarian society. But the Bolsheviks political base were city dwellers, mostly industrial workers. Insofar as the peasants were concerned, the Revolution ended when the landlords fled and government ceased to be. Hurrah! The moment the Bolsheviks started requisitioning grain to feed the cities, peasant support for the Bolsheviks collapsed (not that it was ever strong. Peasants supported the SRs who were agrarian socialists but weren't Marxists per say. Russian Populism is kind of weird). A lot of Bolshevik energy was spent into the 1930s breaking the peasantry. The campaigns against the Kulaks. The destruction of the SRs. The crushing of the Tambov Rebellion. Hell Collectivisation itself. All were about destroying the peasantry as a force.

Same with China. The CPC until 1927 was focused on industrial workers. Following the purge, the CPC was forced to reevaluate its strategy. But it still took them almost a decade to settle on a strategy that could win them mass peasant support, Nevermind the fact that the CPC itself took that long to even accept that it was neccesary to do so. Even the mere fact that they had a strategy didn't translate into much peasant support. Sure they had areas where they could shelter and enjoyed popular support. But those were areas they chose as the ones most likely to be support them. Outside of those peasant support for the Communists was weak at best. It took the GMD wrecking the economy and losing the Civil War to gain peasant support. Spain might be a counter-example. I don't know a huge amount about the PCE.

But as a general rule, Communists tended not to rely on the peasantry because it wasn't a revolutionary class in the Marxist sense. As Lenin put it: The peasantry wants land and freedom.... [Land] means reckoning, not on a compromise between the peasantry and the landlords, but on abolition of landed estates... “Full freedom” means election of officials and other office-holders who administer public and state affairs. “Full freedom” means the complete abolition of a state administration that is not wholly and exclusively responsible to the people, that is not elected by, accountable to, and subject to recall by, the people. (Read: people as peasants because that's how the peasants read it). The problem for Lenin is that once the peasants had this, and it's quite a simple list of demands, they weren't prepared to support anything more. Peasants were revolutionary until they got what they wanted and then they became conservative - intent on protecting it.

Given the above, it's quite possible that the Communists lack a popular base. The peasants won. Fighting messes with things. And that number of troops are going to be requisitioning alarming amounts of food. There's like 300,000 Communist troops. That's, ah, like 70% of OTL Oxacana's population in 1930. A hard turn left also brings with it more friction across a range of things. Do the Communists shoot colloborators? How does one define colloboration? Does it include members of the elected commune governments that must pepper the south? How about priests? The Church signed onto the Treaty ending the war. It raises a lot of questions.
 
Well, I don't know a whole deal about the Russian case, but the CPC failed miserably until it abandoned its urban revolution strategy. I guess what we have to take from all this is that every case has its own particularities. Heck, even in modern Mexico they have these Zapatista sort-of communes? I don't know much about it, but I mean to say that the south is a hotbed of organised anti-government sentiment which at least right now has a strong leftist ideological component.
 
Not quite. The CPC was hugely successful between its 1921 and 1927. It wasn't a mass party (by design) but it was influential, organised and had a devoted set of cadres. It's importance in 1927 was such that Wang Jiangwei, the heir of Sun Yat-Sen, felt the need to court the CPC when he tried to remove Jiang Jieshi. When that failed, the GMD and Jiang turned on the CPC in strength. The Party didn't recover for like a decade after that. The Zapatistas are named for Emiliano Zapata. Zapata wasn't a Marxist. He was an agrarian reformer though. He also came out of the South. The Communes to me are just TTLs equivalent movement. There's just not a lot of need for socialism insofar as peasants are often concerned. Regular old agraian reform is usually enough.
 
I'm not saying the CPC wasn't influential or a threat to Jieshi's plans for China, which it certainly was. They failed miserably every time they attempted urban revolution, however, and that's what I'm getting at.

As far as I know, the communes are a sort of collectivized rural community initiative. I don't talk about the first Zapata because I know less about him than about these modern Zapatistas which as far as I'm concerned might as well have claimed the name purely for propaganda purposes.
 
I'm not quite sure what you mean by urban revolution? Like I think your referring to the Nanchang Uprising and how that fizzled out but I'm not sure. The modern Zapatistas do claim Zapata's name for propaganda purposes but are ideological successors to him.
 
Nanchang Uprising, yes, but also actions such as the establishment of the Wuhan government. Granted this was the leftist branch of the GMD rather than the CPC, but it operated in close collaboration with high-profile Communists and it might have been instigated by Communist cadres within the GMD. Now that last bit might not be true because I can't remember all too well, but taking into account that that's when Jieshi got serious with the purges of Communists, I'll throw it out there.
 
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