Questions for turn 238

[Yilar]

Also a few questions. Can you bomb radar towers away?

And if you plan on rushing AT, remember to short rush something cheap and let the shields finish the build, so we don't waste to many shields, and no rushing in cities with 0 shields either since that is double up.

Also get our bombers back to the mainland, no point in bombing useless boats when we can bomb usefull units next turn

 

[Paul#42]

Yep, seven tiles from The Nursery seems like a clear mistake now.
I wonder if they got some surprise proving me wrong...

At least we'll live another turn...
Should we build a settler and send it to FREE?

 

[Aigburth]

Do Saber have Magellan's?

Edit: Of course they don't, we do!

 

[Paul#42]

Do Saber have Magellan's?

Do they know Electricity - just in case they captured GLH from BABEs

Ah, checked.

I'd even think the movement displayed with the stack already includes any wonder or trait provided bonus, right?

 

[donsig]

I have attached the results of scouting to the south and west. This stack (2 carriers, 4 cruisers, 1 destroyer and 9 transports) are the only attack force that can land.

...

it looks like there isn't anything attack SCI, so, unless they have another stack someone I can't see, they will probably ship chain 54 units (9*6).

they can directly attack The Nursery with 8 bombers and what I think are 12 marines, some cruiser/destroyer bombardment. We can put enough in the Nursery so that they cannot possibly take it.

Alternately, they can land on the sugar next to the nursery or either of the grassland tiles between The New Yard and The Pier.

My first question concerns our EWS. Were we able to do a full recon of our perimeter (including the area around SCI)? You seemed to hedge a bit on SCI.

Assuming there are no other transports in range it would seem the most SABER could bring to bear next turn are 12 marines and 8 bombers. Assuming they all attack and win (not likely but a worst case scenario) we would need 21 units on a tile to prevent a landing. With four potential landing tiles we'd need 84 units. We have 101 (counting marines, tanks, armor and mech infantry) but 25 of the mech inf is on islands. That leaves us 76 units which is 8 short, though this can be easily made up through drafting.

Can they bring more?

Well, we must remember that The Nursery is within bombing range of the rubber tile SE of Cattaraugus. Do we have any recon of that area regarding the presence of an airfield there? If they have one The Nursery could be facing another 10 bombers.

I'm not quite sure how ship chaining works but it seems to me SABER could build a few transports on their next turn that are in range of that stack of 9. New Saber Babes, Dirk and Estoc are port cities six tiles away from the transport stack. Does that mean any units loaded onto transports there could not attack on that turn since they would have to use their movement allowance to transfer to other transports? Kukri is only 5 spaces from the stack so a new transport there could carry more units that could attack. Since SABER can also build more marines we could be looking at 9 transports full of marines.

So The Nursery could potentially be hit by 18 bombers and at least 12 marines. We can see 17 SABER cities on their mainland (besides Kiruk). If each makes a marine that would be 39. They may or may not have 15 more cities to build marines. I doubt they would bring 54 marines any way. The value of taking a city lies in what can be done the same turn and that requires some fast moving units.

Still, in order to ensure we don't lose The Nursery next turn we'd need a 73 unit garrison. (They could possibly bring 18 bombers and 54 marines to attack.) We have 76 units, can draft 22 and airlift one back from SCI giving us 99 units to work with. That leaves only 26 units left to cover the other three tiles where SABER can land.

Some recon on that tile near Cattaraugus would be valuable. No airfield there now means The Nursery wouldn't have to work about being bombed from that point. We should keep in mind also that SABER has another carrier somewhere that could possible add 4 bombers to the attack even without a Cattaraugus airfield. Can we tell where their bombers are based on the ships they bombed?

It just doesn't seem we can categorically prevent a landing. We can prevent them from taking The Nursery but can't do that and stop them from landing on one of the other three tiles.

Do we play the odds and try to garrison The Nursery with what we think is enough and do the same on the other landing spots

OR

Do we stuff The Nursery with as many as 73 units to ensure its safety while leaving the three landing spots at risk?

If we choose the latter strategy, how to we handle the three landing spots? Do we leave them entirely open OR defend them as best we can? They may be bringing armies to land.

I've concentrated solely on worst case scenarios here, mainly because I am ignorant of combat odds for these units. We do have our SAM battery in The Nursery and one mobile SAM that can garrison The Nursery. The Nursery doesn't have a barracks so we can't move the tanks there and upgrade them this turn.

The number crunchers will have to take it from here.

 

[AutomatedTeller]

I was planning on letting them land on open ground - I think any forces we put on the ground will get bombed and beat up. I'd rather have them land there than move to a position where they can threaten multiple cities and perhaps actually take one.

As for SCI - I did run an EWS around it and found no stack of ships.

 

[Paul#42]

I was planning on letting them land on open ground - I think any forces we put on the ground will get bombed and beat up. I'd rather have them land there than move to a position where they can threaten multiple cities and perhaps actually take one.

I agree. A landing in the open is the best we can expect.
Actually it's too good to become true.
Even if it is a couple of armies stacked with mobile SAMs we should be able to kill them with MA.

The whole thing smells like a feint. They could have easily threatened multiple towns and even put their ships into range so they threaten to land-and-move from several cities. This would have been a real nightmare.

What would we have to pay for their military plans?
Maybe it's worth an investment. Or did they uncover our spy? I'd have if I were them...

 

[donsig]

We can still see the make-up of SABER's military so our spy must still be there.

It would cost 3698 to immediately steal their plans. It would only cost 44g to investigate Cattaraugus. Would that show an airfield if there was one? It would cost 100g to investigate Kukri. We have 1937g and rake in over 660gpt with research off.

 

[AutomatedTeller]

I think it might - i think investigating them both makes sense, and I'll do so before playing on - I think we'll find the other transports (and probably carriers) in Kukri.

 

[General_W]

I haven't had a chance to look at the save myself, but I agree with the general chatter here - main thing is to have our cities well enough defended to avoid losing one to bombers and 12 marines. That should be easily doable.

If we stack our Mobile SAMs in the vulnerable cities, maybe we can take out some of their bombers if they try!

If they can't land all 120 units (it does seem too-good-to-be-true that they've only got 9 Transports in range... but as long as we've double checked, I'll take it!), then we should definitely let them land in open terrain unopposed. [EDIT: by "open terrain" - I'm assuming we'll try to block any mountains and preferably hill tiles on which they could conceivably land]

Even if they bomb around the landing site, our MA should still be able to roll over the damaged terrain to get at their stack, right?

If we shore up our vulnerable cities, draft MECHs like crazy, and rush buy everything we can lay our hands on (focus on tanks & Mobile sam) then maybe we'll actually have a shot at this?

 

[tomasjj]

I'd say get as much units as possible in any kind of way now. There is no point in waiting to see what is gonna happen now. There is no time to lose. Bulk up for the bumpy ride.

 

[AutomatedTeller]

I will move workers around so they can reroad any tiles that get pillaged by the bombers, since workers can't get hurt by bombers.

If they land this force next turn, I feel pretty confident we will repel them or at least beat holy hell out of them, enough that they may drop to weak vs. FREE, which might scare them a lot.

If they do NOT land next turn, life gets more complicated

 

[donsig]

Should we be moving our transports so we can ship chain some mech infantry back from SCI?

We have to be aware that SABER may bring more than 12 marines. If they are ship chaining from Kukri they can bring the 12 marines they have now as well as any they finish making on their next turn. Any chance we can get those investigations done and the info posted before playing out our turn?

Chamnix must know how many units we have available. Do we really expect him to land 54 units just for us to kill them?

 

[AutomatedTeller]

sure - I can ask for an extension and play the game tomorrow.

 

[dl123654]

I'm thinking at the end of the turn if there is money left try to expose a SABER spy.

 

[General_W]

We have to be aware that SABER may bring more than 12 marines.

You've made this statement a couple times now. But we know, from our spy, that as of last turn Saber only has 12 marines. They could build more, of course. But for now –that's all we have to worry about.

If they do NOT land next turn, life gets more complicated

Chamnix must know how many units we have available. Do we really expect him to land 54 units just for us to kill them?

This is what's worrying me also.
There are 2 possibilities…

A) Chamnix does NOT know how many units we have, and they've underestimated us, thinking we've focused to much on economy for the space race. They will land this turn and get a nasty surprise.
B) Chamnix is NOT planning to invade next turn, but in 2 or 3 turns.
​

I'm not sure which is more plausible actually. I still can't believe our good fortune that there's no stack of all 17 Saber Transports in one place. Very very happy, but also shocked.

Either way is good for us… but we need to prepare for Option B.

How do we do that?

Rush a couple Nuke Subs maybe? To survive any new ships will probably have to stay in port – but if we rushed a couple nuke subs, with our Magellan Bonus, they have a range equal to Saber's transports… maybe they'd work?
Maybe the money would be better invested in Mobile SAMs? If we can prevent Saber from making good use of their Bombers, we'll be a long way towards defending our island.
Or finally – perhaps some rush-built Artillery is in order? We can't possibly get enough to pound a stack down in a significant way, but it could sure help us in taking out the Armies Saber is likely to land.
​

Thoughts?

 

[AutomatedTeller]

ok - ran some investigations of Kukri, Cattaraugus and also Estoc, from which they could also reach the stack.

I;ll post the screen shots - highlights of information we gleam:

1) Neither Kukri nor Estoc having any transports in them - Kukri is building a battleship, Estoc a marine.
2) SABER is running 80% tax, 20% lux - no research, at all.
3) SABER has some serious weariness issues - even with 20% lux, estoc has 2 clowns. SABER is in mobilization, as well. Maybe we should have offered to negotiate peace between them and BABE?
4) SABER has only 1 source of aluminum hooked up - it's on one of the 1 tilers, up north. I think they have a 2nd aluminum on former BABEland - I assume they don't have any on their home island. If we cut that, we might get a bit of a break.

Well, I was going to take some more screen shots of the world, but I closed the game by accident. I spent 268 gold on investigations and the 7 armor upgrades will be another 420 gold, so there is another 1200 or so for rushes.

My worries:

I can only account for maybe 8 of the 33 SABER destroyers. I also have no idea where their other carrier and 8 transports are, nor where maybe 1/2 their cruisers are. They may be planning a secondary assault on us, they may be planning an assault on FREE... they may just have decided that they had to attack us now and the rest of their forces were out of position.

SABER forces from F3

12 marine
9 inf
10 tank
73 mech
71 MA
18 arty
17 trans
3 carrier
33 destroyer
8 MS
18 bomber
12 jet
5 army
13 cruiser
1 sipahi
13 captured arty

 

[donsig]

You've made this statement a couple times now. But we know, from our spy, that as of last turn Saber only has 12 marines. They could build more, of course. But for now –that's all we have to worry about.

I'll buy that now because AT investigated Kukri and Estoc and found no transports. But before we knew that there was the possibility that SABER's other 8 transports were in Kukri with another set to complete next turn. SABER could also have been building more marines set to complete on their next turn (in other cities). Any new marines could move by rail to Kukri and board the transports there (without using movement points), these transports could then sail to the other stack of transports, the marines could have boarded those transports without using movement points, the newly loaded transports could then have moved next to our shores and all those marines could then have attacked - and all this could have happened on SABER's next turn. (If I'm wrong on this will someone explain it to me - I never use ship chaining myself but I think this is how it works.)

Since we checked the cities that could possibly ship chain and found no transports we can now safely assume that the most SABER can bring is the 12 marines they had on their last turn. This is good since we can easily protect The Nursery. It also means that if they move so as to threaten other cities next turn (rather than land next turn) we'll (probably) still have to deal with only 12 marines.

This is what's worrying me also.
There are 2 possibilities…
A) Chamnix does NOT know how many units we have, and they've underestimated us, thinking we've focused to much on economy for the space race. They will land this turn and get a nasty surprise.

If they have a spy (which costs only 100g) they will know how many units we have and how many of each type just as we know how many they have. With SABER sitting on a huge pile of gold how I don't see how they would have failed to plant a spy. Poor as we are we scraped up the gold. I'd say this possibility is very small.

So it seems more likely that SABER will invade in two or three turns. The longer the better for us. Is it possible this is a feint to get FREE to attack us so SABER can attack FREE? We'll have to just cover our behinds and wait and see.

There are two bombers in Cattaraugus and 5 in Kukri. Doesn't look like there is an airfield on that rubber tile. So the most SABER can bring next turn is 12 bombers - maybe not even that cause the third carrier isn't within our EWS.

 

[AutomatedTeller]

I don't think they have 12 bombers on their carriers - I hope they do, to be honest, cause if they do, our 17 bombers and 4 or 5 fighters will make mincemeat of their carriers after they land.

My guess is that they only have 2 carriers here with 2 jets and 6 bombers. I'm also pretty sure they will land this turn, cause if they don't, they run a risk of having those transports sunk by bombers.

I'm actually pretty surprised how light the defense of that stack is.

 

[AutomatedTeller]

These are a main production centers, their spt and how many shields in the box they have:

The Treasury 122 0
The Chamber 122 0
The Gulag 120 0
The Institute 80 0
The silo 78 78 (pollution - over 80 without it)
The admiralty 64 64 (building MA)
The Aerie 62 62 (buildnig MA)
The Arboretum 54 0
The Iglo 54 54 (Jet)
The Meeting Room 36 72 (sub in 1)
The Bayou 29 97 (destroyer in 1)
The Red Tape 25 25 (Sub in 3)
The Pier 23 112 (destroyer in 1)
The Phoenix 17 0
The New Yard 17 51 (Mobile Sam in 3)
The Ways 17 78 (Sub in 2)
The Nursery 14 14 (sub in 7)
Chamsuri's Cove 13 78 (sub in 2)
The beach 5 79 (sub in 5)
The marina 9 9 (transport in 11)
The Dislodged 5 85 (sub in 3)
The squeeze 5 41 (sub in 12)
The Whale Pond 4 (sub in 25)
The Tower (SCI) 3 33 (harbor in 9)

My thoughts:

The top 7 all have barracks and are producing our MA. Two of them which are producing 2 turn MA could produce 1 turn artillery, which may be a better use of them - 4 artys might be better than 2 MA in 2 turns.

We have 5 mobile sams, but 4 of them are on SCI - I can airlift 1 back to the mainland each turn.

I think subs, right now, are not all that useful for us.

My thoughts:

Turn The Arboretum to 1 turn artys
Let The Silo finish it's MA, then artys
The admiralty and Aerie build 2 turn MA
The Arboretum switches to a bomber
Meeting room and switch to mobile sam.

New yard has it's SAM rushed.
The Nursery is switched to a SAM and is rushed.

Chamsuri's Cove, The beach, The marina, The Dislodged, The Squeeze and The Ways switch to artys, rushing where needed.

if I can, short rush another SAM in The Phoenix, but with nothing in the box, that might be expensive (short rush a worker, than whatever is left)

The Bayou and the pier switch to bombers.

Basically, stop building jets and subs, get some artys and more bombers.

This will give us a bunch of mobile sams and some 20 odd bombers on the mainland.

The northern cities all get switched to artys which will be useful against an attack.

Thoughts?