Summary: It's not over yet.
Just to refresh myself on all the units available:
Cataphract: 4-3-2 / 70 (Like Charis, I'll call them cavalry / cavs)
Spy: 2-2-1 ATAR, detect invisible / 20
MDI: useless with Crusaders
Crusader: 4-3-1 / 40
Assassin: 5-1-1 stealth, invisible, detect invisible / 60
Longbow: 6-1-1 / 40
Swiss Merc: 3-5-1 / 50
Inquisitor: 4-1-1 ATAR, detect invisible / 30
Start by figuring out diplomatic status. We are currently at war with nobody, for the first time in quite a while. The Turks are at war with Abbasids, Magyars, Rus, France, England, Norway, Poland, Fatimids. Abbasids are at war with Turks, Germany, Poland, Fatimids.
The Abbasids aren't our only target - the Bulgars are also still around. They will certainly have fewer, weaker units than the Abbasids, and no assassins. We do have a fair number of offensive units in the northwest area, mostly slow units. I will gear up to attack them very quickly, possibly as soon as 3-4 turns in. An alliance against them will be a must to burn up some of their units. The MDI army will also be directed to go this way.
For alliances against the Abbasids, the AIs will only offer gpt, not lump-sum, and only the Turks have anything to pay. Before doing that, I decide to spend to investigate Septum. I've absolutely no idea whether there are 2 or 20 units in that city.
Five units, all Swiss Mercs. Most importantly,
no assassins. That means that we don't have to attack this turn; we can wait a turn for the more powerful slow attackers to move up to the city.
Also investigate New Jerusalem for the same reasons. This city has three mercs, one assassin, and another assassin scheduled to complete this turn. Translation: nail it right now, with the fast cataphracts.
We sell our map to the Abbasids for 3 gold, and make our alliance deal with the Turks, getting 32 gpt to declare war on the Abbasids.
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The battle for New Jerusalem... is inconclusive. Several cavs retreat. We kill all three mercs, losing four cavs, but the city holds with its assassin. Well, all I can do is move the available slow attacking units up to hit the city next turn, plus the two cavs that were doing nothing up by Sinope.
For Septum, the stack of slow units moves up next to it, covered by a merc, and the stack of cavs there moves into New Sidon, from which they can attack either target city next turn.
Dromons at home bombard and sink that one Abbasid curragh.
I buy the Magyars into alliance with Religious Persecution; they also give us 4 workers in the deal.
Time to turn my attention to build orders. I hate to do this, but I veto most of the Sheriff's Offices and waste shields to build cataphracts instead. Adrianople will get precisely 4 shields/turn from the Office - for those scoring at home, that means 60 turns to pay back for the shields invested. The pennies of income won't matter either at this late date.
I also spend down the treasury rushing several units. By the time I'm done with all this, we have due to complete this turn 6 cataphracts, 3 longbows, two assassins, two spies, and two barracks.
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BT - Abbasids buy the Rus in against us. Rus then buy the Celts in against us.
Several Abbasid Assassins pop out - and kill all the assassins we have in the combat area. Good thing I rushed a couple spies.
Inquisition completes, raising our income by 20gpt.
1179 AD: New Jerusalem got a fresh elite merc on defense (?), but the RNG is kind and we lose only one cav in taking the city. We raze it; we can't defend it, and do not want to be fighting uphill again to recapture it.
The battle for Septum begins, and is it ever bloody. We lose four slow units and 5 cataphracts in killing the six defenders. Speaker and I both misjudged the troop allocation pretty badly. We need our ENTIRE stack at each city to take it; we can't split anything up. We also need about 50 catapults, but I don't think we're going to get that.
Up towards the Bulgars, shuffling and positioning and upgrading to get ready. Change most military production over to longbows; they're MUCH better bang for the buck than cataphracts.
In diplomacy, it's time to make sure we don't get piled on all over again.
Give Seamanship to Poland for a triple-alliance against Abbasids, Rus, Celts.
Give Wines + Dyes to France for alliances against Celts and Rus. (Against Abbasids would cost 40gpt, too much.)
Give Seamanship + 1 gpt to Fatimids for alliance against Rus. (they're already fighting Abbasids and Celts.)
VP score now:
21380 (+ 340) Turks
18615 (+ 500) Abbasids
17670 (+ 135) Rus
17295 (+2200) Byzantines
15525 (+ 120) Sweden
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BT: Only one Abbasid counterattack! An assassin kills one cav. A stack of four pikemen moves towards Sinope. My initial thought is that they must be hiding assassins, but that's not so...?
Bulgars ally with someone against Castile - this is great, it'll draw off their offensive units.
1182 AD: Healing and consolidating on the Abbasid front. One cataphract bumps into an assassin and goes elite.
On the Bulgar front, it's about time for action. Pitesti just dropped from size 12 to 10 - how did that happen?
Well, I need to know where their king is, to go for that city LAST. It starts in Pitesti, but may have moved to Vidin, their current capital. We investigate Pitesti - it's still there, so we're going for Vidin first. Not this turn, but next turn, we're moving.
The investigation also showed that they have only one iron source, and we can pillage that quickly.
21985 (+ 600) Turks
18780 (+ 160) Abbasids
17790 (+ 120) Rus
17295 (+ 30) Byzantines
15665 (+ 140) Sweden
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BT, Abbasids buy both Denmark and Norway in against us.
1185 AD: I begin to start advancing towards New Samaria. I move in a spy, which reveals a pair of assassins; we'll have to deal with them first or they'll stealth-slaughter longbows. I can move a Merc and a stack of cataphracts onto a mountain, which should be able to deal with them.
Then I realize the *spy* can actually kill one of the assassins, so it does.

I rush another couple spies in the area for exactly this purpose.
On the Bulgar front, it's time. We declare war on the Bulgars, and trade Prof Armies + Wines + Dyes to the Magyars for a quad-alliance against Bulgars/Rus/Celts/Norway. This deal will END with the death of the Bulgars. We advance a SoD, including the MDI army, towards Vidin.
22490 (+ 500) Turks
18895 (+ 120) Abbasids
17890 (+ 100) Rus
17485 (+ 190) Byzantines
15770 (+ 100) Sweden
By the way, I just realized that we can win this anytime we want. Just park units right outside all our cities, give them all away to somebody, declare war and "conquer" them right back. I won't do that, though.
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BT, few counterattacks, but the Abbasids move a stack of EIGHTEEN assassins up to New Sidon!!
1188 AD: Argh - the only thing I have that can attack the stack is three cavs in New Sidon. They each kill an assassin and run to safety, and then the only thing I can do is abandon the city. There's also a stack of five Swiss Mercs about to reach and reinforce New Samaria, so we can't advance that way either.
Bulgar front: the MDI army knocks two defenders off of Vidin, and the rest of the SoD catches up.
22820 (+ 430) Turks
19090 (+ 200) Abbasids
18080 (+ 200) Rus
17615 (+ 130) Byzantines
15945 (+ 170) Sweden
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BT, beat one counterattacking Bulgar longbow. Danes buy Castile into alliance against us. Abbasids move massive stacks but don't attack anything.
1191 AD: Start slaughtering assassins. Our longbow helpfully takes out the single merc guarding them without a scratch, and there are now seventeen new assassin corpses littering these mountains. I was one attacker short of wiping out the stack.
Also kill two assassins and a pike coming towards Sinope on the northern end of the Abbasid front. Also, I notice that New Samaria dropped from size 8 to 7. Can we get it to 6 to make it much easier to attack? Our Dromons block the fish tile and bombard out an irrigated tile.
Bulgar front: Our army kills another defender in Vidin, then attacks again... and loses 8 straight HP. But then it retreats! I didn't know infantry armies could do that, but we'll take it! A longbow attacks and wins; the next loses; the next wins... and we capture the city!
All the rest of the 1-move units in that stack move down towards the other Bulgar city of Kutmi-something, size 4. The cataphracts will defend the army until it can heal, then all of them and several newly-built longbows will move towards the last Bulgar city.
And that puts us up to second place!
22995 (+ 170) Turks
19410 (+1800) Byzantines
19405 (+ 300) Abbasids
18245 (+ 160) Rus
Sweden's pretty much out of the running, so I won't list them anymore. Also, because they're behind, I don't mind getting them into more wars. I give Sweden Seamanship for a
septuple alliance (!) against Celts,Castile,Abbasids,Rus,Danes,Norwegians,Bulgars. This deal will also end when the Bulgars die, leaving our options clear.
WOW - that just pulled Sweden from Furious to Gracious in one deal!!!
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BT, the Abbasids want peace, which we decline of course. We then lose a couple units to attacking assassins... then the AI gets smart and uses a bunch of MERCS to kill several of our offensive units!
1194 AD: Kill yet more assassins all over the place. No headway, but we're not losing any ground. A stack of Swiss Mercs is entering our territory, though. Trying to get some catapults and longbows and mercs down that way to deal with them. (Switzerland isn't even on the map! Where in the world are all these mercs coming from?!

)
I've had to pull police from lots of cities towards the war front, and lux tax has to go to 20%. A Dromon bombards out a tile with wines that's also a key road link for the Abbasids.
Bulgar front: Thanks to a bunch of captured workers doing Ctrl-R, our army can reach a barracks city this turn to heal. Advancing and positioning.
23215 (+ 220) Turks
20115 (+ 700) Abbasids
19655 (+ 250) Byzantines
18395 (+ 150) Rus
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BT, the RUS AND TURKS MAKE PEACE! Let's hope hope hope that slows down both of their VP accumulations!
Abbasids buy Cordova against us.
I didn't mean to do it, but we pulled the AIs' puppet strings. I pulled all the defenders out of Caesarea because they were needed elsewhere, and all the Abbasid mercs just immediately began a new vector towards that city.
1197 AD: Attack Kutmi-whatever. An uber-pikeman beats three straight longbows, but we capture the city. Start marching towards last Bulgar city.
Nothing on the Abbasid front this turn.
23705 (+ 500) Turks - but that gain was mostly them getting Milling tech
20440 (+ 330) Abbasids
20140 (+ 500) Byzantines
18600 (+ 200) Rus
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BT, the Abbasids start bringing longbows instead of assassins as attackers. I'm okay with that, though they are worth fewer points for killing.
1200 AD: Maneuver and kill a pile of Abbasid units yet again. We're able to take out their attacking units easily enough, but there's still more Swiss Mercs than I can really deal with.
Bulgar front: move on up next to their last city.
23805 (+ 100) Turks - they've slowed down!
20765 (+ 320) Abbasids
20400 (+ 260) Byzantines
18740 (+ 140) Rus
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BT, beat an Abbasid longbow on defense but lose to a second, no other attacks. Rus start Magna Carta
1203 AD: We're on the verge of eliminating the Bulgars. I scour the diplomatic lines in search of any way to take advantage of a temporary alliance - ideal would be to pay gpt for a tech plus an alliance against the Bulgars, then we don't have to pay when the Bulgars get eliminated - but there isn't any. I look again, and there still isn't any opportunity.
So we go ahead and attack the last Bulgar city. One army, six longbow, and five cataphract attacks later, I have to use a Swiss Merc to deliver the final blow to their king. Nuts - now I remember you don't get the VPs from capturing the city with their last king, since the civ gets eliminated before the city changes hands.
It's really late now, and I want to let Arathorn plan out the next step, so I'm going to call it quits. The 1203 AD turn is unplayed except for finishing off the Bulgars.
24320 (+ 510) Turks
21780 (+1010) Abbasids - ouch!
20830 (+ 430) Byzantines
19920 (+1200) Rus
On my turn, we caught up from 6000 behind the Turks to only 3500 behind, but that's still a long way to go.
I think our only chance now is to declare on the Magyars (it'll break a deal, but who cares now) and keep attacking northwards. I started moving longbows towards juicy size-12 Belgorod to get that started. Expect 4-6 Swiss Merc defenders in each city; that takes about 8-10 longbows or 12-15 cataphracts to defeat.
The Abbasid front is a total stalemate. We can fend off their attacks well enough, but I haven't been able to think about making any forward progress at all. We do still pick up VPs from unit kills. Make sure to move spies around to check for assassins, although they seem to have switched to mostly longbows.
Remember that techs are worth VPs too if we can somehow - anyhow - get them. In 4 turns a large payment to the Turks runs out, and we can probably renegotiate peace to buy another tech from them to broker around.
Some peace deals, like Celts, are available - do whatever you want with that.
Arathorn, it's in your capable hands. Take however long you need to get some time to devote to the game; I wouldn't want to see this played at anything less than peak form.
http://www.civfanatics.net/uploads7/rbc13a-1203ad.zip