Would you rather take the risk that the people reviewing your report take a look, say to themselves, "This doesn't prove anything," and simply delete it and move on? It's it much better to have
me pick it apart first.
Wodan
.... Serving a vital need of the civ community.
You were right. I was a bit tired when I posted it. I should have added the numbers in the first place. The numbers + the graph would have been better.
Re: the 10% not being worth it
On that logic, why build Libraries? It's only 25%. If it takes on average 6 turns to research a technology (very dependent on game speed), then it will take you 24 turns to get 1 technology ahead of your opponents. And at that moment they will start benefitting from the research bonus that civlizations get for technologies that have already been developed by other civilizations.
And, it's even worse than that. You have to spend production capital to make the Library in the first place. Plus, you have to build them in every city to get the bonus civ-wide.
Wodan
.... Serving a vital need of the civ community.
I was arguing that it was not very likely that the science output of free religion would cause a dramatic science lead in the late game. The bonus is just too small. Nor Me is right that the relative bonus from this civic is closer to 5% because lots of buildings which increase science output have already been build this late in the game and the 10% science bonus is only applied to the base science output.
The bonus of organized religion is also not really 25% anymore in the late game in your old cities which already have large production bonusses. And it only applies when you're constructing buildings. It's quite hard for the AI to compare these civics.
The AI needs to do the following things:
1) put a relative value on 1 science point compared to 1 hammer.
2) calculate the increase in science per turn
3) estimate the amount of production going towards building production and calculate the increase in hammers per turn.
I don't know if the AI has access to all the numbers necessary to do the calculations. I don't know how easy it is to do this comparison. It's clear that the choise is not easy as we humans don't even agree what is the best option.
By the way, I agree with your city placement criticism. The AI should have placed that city one tile to the east. I also think that the AI picked that location because of the value it places on resources.
It is of course very difficult, maybe even impossible, to write a city valuation method which will result in the 'right' city placement. When humans place a city, they look at all the land around the city to see how it will fit in a continent wide city placement pattern. The AI uses a very local valuation method. And if this valuation method doesn't value resources highly enough, then it might not go for the cities with many resources early enough.
I would prefer a two step city placement algoritm. A first step where the AI divides the land into a city placement pattern so that very few tiles are lost and cities have low overlap. And a second step where the AI actually chooses which city in this pattern is the most attractive one to build first. The first step in the algorithm wouldn't value resources very highly but mainly look at city overlap and tile loss (tiles inbetween cities which will never be used). The second step would value resources very highly to determine which city is the most attractive one to build first.
I don't know how feasible such an algorithm would be. Especially the first step might be difficult because it requires a significant amount of calculations to determine an 'ideal' city placement pattern. Every city placement is dependent on the city placement of other cities and the number of combinations of city placement grow very large very quickly.