SGOTM 03 - The Real Ms. Beyond

A picture of our expanded empire:

lak1197bs6.jpg
 
Looks like clockwork to me :)

Taking another look at the roster, I believe grangerm is up. Let us continue discussion!

Compromise
greggo
LKendter (just played)
grangerm (UP)
Kodii (on deck)
Sir Bugsy
Iainuki

The addition of the photo makes me very reassured in our situation. Don't forget to upload the save :)

Blue Dot has horses, making it even more of an important location that before.
 
Nice fogbusting! (LK, I think the save is still the old one, not the latest.)

Edit: I bet Gyathaar put Iron over there too....
 
Thoughts for the next round:
1) Moscow is on warrior to let it grow again. We still need 1 more fog buster. After that I feel Moscow needs to STOP building military. When going for settler #3, I prefer the Pyramids as a place holder until we are ready. We need to get going on them. We still need to generate 338 shields for them even with the stone connected.

2) As soon as the pasture is completed, send the worker back to Moscow.

3) I would like mysticism as our next tech, so that obelisk is available to St. Petersburg after the worker completes. Beyond that tech is a toss up for me. Iron working would be nice, but we have a long way to go before we can spare worker turns for jungle clearing. Agriculture is a waste until after we have iron working as both rice tiles on jungle tiles. Sailing makes no sense at this time. I think we will all agree there is NO way we can pull of the lighthouse and the Pyramids. Therefore, I want potter after mysticism.

4) I would crank science back up to 100% to get rid of the couple of stray bucks we have.

5) This one WILL shock the team, but I now feel we MUST get the copper city settler before the Pyramids. Therefore let's pull of another size 4 settler whip, and then start chopping for the Pyramids.
Don't chop the settler. Our chops are twice as powerful for the Pyramids.

What changed my mind? It was the location of the horse resource. If we missed this city, we lose the game IMHO. Even the Pyramids are worth that. If the horses were by Moscow or St. Petersburg I would stick by my original plan.
 
I think that sounds like an excellent plan. I think I'll bump up the summary post to make it the third :)

And the save! Don't forget to upload the save!

EDIT: NM, you did :)
 
Nice fogbusting! (LK, I think the save is still the old one, not the latest.)

Edit: I bet Gyathaar put Iron over there too....

I uploaded the correct version. I will contact Alan about the bad attempt.
 
SUMMARY POST #3

Compromise
greggo
LKendter (just played)
grangerm (UP)
Kodii (on deck)
Sir Bugsy
Iainuki

Diplomacy -

At the moment, we only know Mao and Alex. Both are currently unfriendly. We probably want to remove them from the planet in the future.

Technology

Mysticism - Pottery - Sailing

Settling -

sgotm3dotmap2.jpg


Blue Dot – First Priority
Green Dot - Second Priority
White Dots - Fishing Villages

Builds -

Moscow
Warrior (to grow) - Pyramids (begin + chop) - Settler (at size 6 + whip) - Pyramids (chop + finish)

St. Petersburg
Worker - Obelisk - Workboat

Religion

Let it spread to us.

Great People

St. Petersburg is our GP farm, but not until we can get writing

Civics

We’re in Slavery right now. Once the Pyramids finish, we probably want to switch to Representation.

Fogbusting

Only one more dot left to fill. The warrior that will be produced by Moscow should go to that dot.
 
Looks good LK!

Afraid I have an exam on Wednesday, so not too much time to comment at the moment, but I'll have much more time after the exam.
 
Looks like a great turnset, LK.

Checking in with grangerm: Do you think you'll be able to play a few for us on Wed or so after some discussion?

Tentatively: Agree on Mysticism then Pottery. Agree that last military for a while is current warrior in Moscow.

Still not sure about the settler vs. pyramids. Yes, blue dot is imperative, but with all this busted fog, I'm not sure if there's any risk of losing it.

In 8 turns, we see if south spice city will have any more seafood.

Maybe I'm being paranoid (justified, I think, after SGOTM2), but Mao seems to be doing *very* well here....

Yikes! Just checked diplomacy and both Mao and Alexander have "enough on our hands right now." That usually means war!

And Mao has elephants! At least it's unlikely that he has Construction yet.

Hmmm.

We might need to prioritize not only the settler, but also Sailing to connect resources to the capital.

More thoughts tomorrow.
 
I'll check the save when I get home from work. I'm sure I'll have time to play Wed. night EST.

As I see it now (without checking the save), that land mass to the SW is still empty, so civs looking to settle from that direction will fill up that land first, before trying to settle on our continent. Can Mao or Alex even reach our land w/o OB with us? Once our capital pops its borders again, they may not even be able to get there without our consent (which we'd never give). If that is all true, then settling blue dot now is less pressing. Of course, none of that could be true. :)

So the plan is to move the worker back to Moscow and mine the hills right? I guess the 2nd worker would do the same when he completes? And as for whipping the 2nd settler, are we talking about a 2-pop whip or a 3-pop whip? (EDIT: I see there's a suggestion to grow to 4, start settler and 2-pop whip it when it's ready)

If Mao and Alex are at war with one another, we'd be able to tell from the domestic adviser or diplomacy wouldn't we?

EDIT: If we really want to speed up the Pyramids, we should just chop forests (preferably grasslands, ideally those with rivers) instead of mining hills. Mining hills costs 12 (5+6+1 ?) turns and will return 60 hammers and +1/turn from then on. Straight chopping will take 6 turns (5+1) turns and will return the 60 hammers (of course we wouldn't want to chop the plains hill cause that would cause us to lose hammers/turn). So we could double our chopping hammers for the short term while clearing room for our inevitable cottages.
 
Technology

Mysticism - Pottery - ?
I would add sailing after pottery. I forgot who said it, but we DO need coastal trade. I would like an Axe in Moscow for our enemies across the way to see.


St. Petersburg
Worker - Obelisk
I would #3 as a workboat. Adding the fish after border expansion gives the city another good tile before iron working. It also sets up the copper city to get strong sooner.


Still not sure about the settler vs. Pyramids. Yes, blue dot is imperative, but with all this busted fog, I'm not sure if there's any risk of losing it.
I still think we could lose it to an AI that shows up from the west. More important is our two aggressive neighbors. We *need* real military sooner, then later. Getting the Pyramids, but losing Moscow isn't worth the trade.
 
I would like an Axe in Moscow for our enemies across the way to see.

I don't think that the AI cares about one unit. I think it makes its military decisions based on raw power, not seeing an axe and saying "crap, we don't want to tangle with him". I have never seen the AI adapt and build all axes when I am invading with mostly swords, it still builds archers.

#3 as a workboat.

Agree with the WB next after the obelisk in St. Pete.

I still think we could lose it to an AI that shows up from the west.
That is possible, but until we see an AI from that direction and see that other land mass fill up, I think it's a remote one. And even if the AI did settle there, it couldn't bring with it more than 1 archer in the galley, so it would be easy pickings for a couple of our own archers. Anyway, I think we can wait to settle, but should be prepared to change our plans if we suddenly meet an AI over there.
 
I don't think that the AI cares about one unit. I think it makes its military decisions based on raw power, not seeing an axe and saying "crap, we don't want to tangle with him". I have never seen the AI adapt and build all axes when I am invading with mostly swords, it still builds archers.
I concede that I phrased it wrong. I was getting at the same thing with increasing our power rating.
 
We still don't have a tech that pops borders and blue dot absolutely has to have a border pop to be useful.
 
I largely agree with what's been posted since LK's turnset.

This is sort of a think-while-you-type post, so please bear with me.

We want to build the pyramids and our other cities on this island as soon as we can for two types of reasons: Fear of loss and hope of gain. (We want other things too, but the issue of settler vs. pyramids seems primary.)

Loss reasoning: If we don't build the pyramids quickly, some other civ will. If we don't found blue dot quickly, another AI will found a city that will--even if we take it later--result in poor placement of that strategic resource city. If we don't found green dot quickly, another civ will, again possibly in the wrong place.

Gain reasoning: We want the pyramids so we can start earning the GPP and switch to representation. We want blue dot so we can start building a modern military. We want green dot because it will be profitable.

We're currently at turn 69. Turn 100 is 1000BC and my (our?) tentative goal for completing the pyramids to make sure we get them.

The fastest way to get another settler is to grow to size 4, then build the settler until we can whip it at that size. With our worker away putting pasturizing the St Pete cows, he won't be back near Moscow in time to chop any forests to speed that up. This should be about 17T (4T to size 3, 6T to size 4, 6T work on settler, 1T whip.

The fastest way to get the pyramids is to start work on them immediately after finishing this last warrior build in Moscow, then just crank away at it. Both workers should be able to add chops which will expedite the process.

I'd like to propose the following option, which is sort of a compromise between optimizing either build: After finishing the warrior, start the pyramids. Work our best (F+H) tiles (C is the tiebreaker) at all times. When we hit size 6, which I expect we'll do before we finish the pyramids, switch to settler, put a turn into it, and whip it. Then, back to the pyramids and finish them up while we grow back. (Note that before any mines are finished, our flood plain is our #4 tile, after a mine, the mine will be better.)

(I'm not convinced this is the best approach, but I want to have the team vet it.)

I don't really fear losing either the pyramids or blue dot. (Green dot is a remote possibility, but considering that the AI would almost certainly be initially defending it with a single archer, I'm sure we could build a couple blue-dot axemen and take it out. When we have a settler, we should note where any blue circles are; that's where the AI will found its cities.)

Because I don't really fear timing, I don't see a need to prioritize one of these goals over the other. While blue dot brings us resources, it also incurs maintenance and will probably require an accompanying worker to pasturize the horses immediately.

It seems to me that the best approach is to maximize our tile usage. Before a granary, 1F ~= 1H, so I think the best production approach is to use our highest (F+H) tiles all the time.

Founding blue dot is a must and is a high priority. But, it will cost us too. Because of maintenance, it'll slow any tech discovery after it. I guess if we have (or nearly have) every tech we critically need by the time blue dot is founded, then we may as well get the initial dip in empire productivity over with and get it founded asap. That leads me to pose the following:

Question: If our research rate plummeted, what techs would we want to be sure we had by then?

I'm thinking: Bare minimum: mysticism (10T, obelisks), pottery (14T, granary, cottages), sailing (17T, trade routes, galleys, lighthouses).

Next: Writing (21T, libraries--research, specialists; open borders for exploring), IronWorking (35T, jungle chopping, Can we bring swords to the party?)

(I just used the in-game research times for the latest save to get the research times, actual numbers will probably be bit less.)

Our fastest-settler option starts building after 4T, completes in 17T, takes 12T to move and found. We'd be about halfway through sailing at that point.

A couple of other notes:

If we see an archer and a settler on an AI galley, they won't attack, but will found a city. If we see 2 archers, we are going to get attacked.

In 8 turns, our culture protects us from at-peace, closed border civ settlement parties from the east.

No sign yet of anyone to the west. That's probably good.

Mao is the powerful AI we've met. He has 3 cities already. He looks somewhat impressive on the demographics screen. He'll probably be our first target.

We need to discuss (though not right away) what kind of infrastructure we want in place before we go acquiring must-keep cities.

The jungle keeps advancing and filling in spots that might have had iron. We probably don't want to found green dot until we have ironworking. Both because it'll only have a seafood to work before then and because we might have iron near a fishing village. (Maybe that's okay though. If we're close to IronWorking, we can get a jumpstart on the city by starting on the seafood. And we can possibly found another city near iron or go capture it from our neighbors! :devil:)

Edit: One last thing: I noticed while browsing the previous save that in the UN resolutions, it was 30/59 for all resolutions except victory which was 36/59. I think this means that we need 60% (not 2/3rds) of the world population for the diplomatic victory vote that we seek.
 
Just a quick note: Our net (F+H) productivity is about 13hpt. We have 3T till we start working on settler and pyramids. We need (338H+150H=) 488H total before then.

In total, that's about 40T. Each forest chop saves us about 2T. I figure we might get 2 chops in before the end, so 36T. That puts us at 5T (x 15yrs each) past 1000BC or 925BC for finishing both.

These numbers are rough.
 
There's lots of stuff going on here to talk about, but I don't really have time now to go in-depth, so I thought I'd address one or two things first: there is a route for closed-border settler parties to take to blue dot. Moscow's borders will cover the spice peninsula, 1E, and 1W, but a galley could still sail due south of to 1SE of the clams, then head due NW and make a landing. I don't know how likely this is, because there's other land to the south there the AI may like more, but I think it's a possibility we should guard against, especially since it will take so long for our settler to walk to blue dot.

Both of our enemies have Sailing already, because they have trade routes with us. The "we have enough on our hands" also means they're almost certain to declare war on us. They haven't mentioned any unit better than archers, though, and behind culture defenses warriors can stop those. Our lack of military is making me quite nervous, though. The AI's ability to launch amphibious invasions sucks, but it only takes one axe to kill our entire civilization at the moment. I think we have to detour to Archery: even if we get blue dot out ASAP, it will take ~8 turns for whip unhappiness to build the settler, another 10 to walk the island, 6 turns to grow (provided the fish are up by that point) and whip the obelisk, 15 to expand the border, and 12 to build the roads and mine to hook up the copper. That's 51 turns total where we'll be defenseless. If Mao and Ghengis still don't more than archers in that time, we'll be safe, but that's not something I feel good about counting on.

I'll be freer tonight to mention my other thoughts, but for now I need to go.
 
There seriously should be a Civ4lert for that change of AI response.

Does anyone know how long it is before the war occurs when the AI "has enough" on their hands? Also, does anyone know if there's a "no attack before" date on Monarch/Aggressive AI?
 
Something fishy is going on here. I'm trying to figure out what the odds are that the AI attacks us early.

I whipped up a sample game where I put Mao and Alex on a continent right next to me (Peter). Just like in our game, they are the only civs on their island, and I'm well within range of theirs. I ran the game out to 700BC by building a single warrior and then building the pyramids (at a slow rate; some AI built them in 895BC!). Not only did both AIs eventually go to +1 peace (Cautious), but neither one developed sailing by then.

So, I went back to 3100BC and gave them both all three early strategic resources (horses, copper, iron) in their fat cross. And I gave them Sailing. Same thing. No worsening of relations, no "enough on hands".

It's possible that I was so close to them that they got the +1 long-time peace diplo bonus before they planned a war, but....

Anyway, I'm just having a tough time interpreting what that "enough on hands" means for us.
 
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