There's a lot going on here, so I'm going to break this up into two parts: long-range plans and what I need to do for my next turn set.
Long-Range Plans
Domination Threshold: Don't panic! First, remember that water doesn't count towards the land threshold. Second, consider that we need to get about 60% of the population with 50% of the land. We're human players, this isn't using BetterAI so the AI has no idea how to grow its cities, I am in no doubt that we can achieve backdoor domination without triggering real domination, if we're careful about it.
The Map's Tech Rate It appears the Hagia Sophia got built not long ago. (I was hoping to put that in Moscow, for more GE points.) We have a tech lead, but not much of one. This, honestly, is my largest worry about our current position: pikes behind culture defenses can stop a cossack rampage, and rifles, once the AIs get them, end the era of cossacks altogether. I'm worried that we may not be finished with backdoor domination before this happens.
Back-Up Plans: One thing I haven't mentioned up to this point is that up to Mass Media, the fastest space race and fastest backdoor domination tech paths look similar. I generally shoot to early Computers, to build laboratories to increase my tech rate, then go back and get Rocketry via the Chemistry-Steel-Artillery path, then Fiber Optics to build the Internet and get the techs on the Assembly Line path. The only wrinkle is that on production-poor maps, sometimes finishing the parts rather than finishing the tech is the limiting factor on space speed. This archipelago is better than usual for production, but if we want to switch to space race, we'll want to consider if we should pursue Assembly Line and Industrialism earlier, prioritizing production over tech.
The other thing I should note is that warring for more production and faster tech is also a typical part of an early space victory.
Religion and Diplomacy: We are about 8 turns away from Liberalism, and we still don't have a state religion. I would much rather pocket the extra happiness, culture (with Free Religion, it doesn't matter what religion is in a city, religion will produce culture; and we also get the culture from any holy cities we capture), and science from Free Religion than bother with a state religion: I remain skeptical that even with the religious bonuses, we're going to have much luck getting AIs to vote for us because of the hidden -4 penalty. Remember, they have to be Friendly with us, and not have better relationships with our diplomatic opponent. If there's one thing I've learned through bitter experience in Civ4, it's that engineering someone to be your diplomatic opponent is a risky gambit: if there's a clear leader in the AIs, it can work, but usually, there are two or three AIs in close competition.
In this game, not only do we have several AIs in close competition, but we have three major religious blocs to deal with. The current crop yield chart, usually a good proxy for population, has Hatshepsut in the lead, with Kublai Khan, Mao Zedong, and Tokugawa close behind. A war or differential growth rates later in the game could change our diplomatic opponent, and I wouldn't count some of the other powers out, either. Beyond this, I suspect that once the AIs develop Liberalism, some of them will switch to Free Religion too. With so many opponents, most of them don't have a self-founded religion; and with competing religious blocs, the AIs who've founded religions will probably make efforts to spread them, and this means AIs with multiple religions and no self-founded religion, and thus a possible incentive to switch to Free Religion.
Who to Kill: I think we need to start making plans for who to kill next. I see four components that should go into deciding who to kill. The most important is geography, in terms of who's close to where our army is, and who we want to eliminate to eliminate culture crush on our cities. The second is relative power ranking: do we go after the strong AIs to slow the map's tech rate or eliminate dangerous enemies, or weak AIs to add them to our empire without much effort? The third is wonders: are there any wonders we want to acquire? The fourth is diplomacy.
I think we should take the rest of the Roman island, then make peace with Caesar while leaving him Ravenna. Who's our next target then? I see a couple of candidates:
Egypt is the score leader and adjacent to our island. It has no useful wonders, is sandwiched between Mali and Inca, and is part of the small Hindu bloc.
Inca has the Great Lighthouse(!) and is reasonably close to us, past Alex, and is in the top third for score. However, it's next to Creative Egypt, and farther than other possible targets.
Japan has the Hagia Sophia and an island to itself, is part of the large Buddhist bloc, and is one of the score leaders. It's past Gandhi, about the same distance away as Inca.
Alex and Mao we've already talked about.
Next Turnset
The War: I'll keep killing Caesar until he's dead. I plan to hit Neapolis, then Antium if I have time.
Cities: I'm going to finish the market in Novgorod, then have it build military. Why is Yaroslavl' building military without a barracks? I'm going to change that immediately. St. Pete has a huge amount of whipping unhappiness to burn off. I'm going to whip libraries and universities in our Roman cities ASAP: we need to get Oxford started. I think we need to be more sparing with the whip, where possible: our cities need to grow when possible.
Next GP: We are due for a GP in 6 turns from St. Pete. This will either be a great artist (20%) or great scientist (80%). A great artist will discover Theology then Divine Right then Nationalism. A great scientist will discover Printing Press, then Astronomy. What do people feel is the appropriate use of our next GP?
Tech: We can go for Liberalism to Astronomy, as per the original plan. France and China already have Paper, which makes me think that we won't be able to sandbag Liberalism to the point of getting Military Tradition with it, but maybe I'm wrong about this. Astronomy will widen our choice of next targets, and increase our tech rate. (Don't forget an observatory in St. Pete will let us hire another scientist there!) I still lean to Astronomy, but do we want to try something else?
Tech Trading: We need to start trading for other techs here. We're going to need Drama for theaters when we start waging culture wars, Music for Military Tradition, and we need to Feudalism to see how far up the Feudalism-Guilds-Banking line the AI is. Subsidiary to this, is it worth trying for Economics? Does anyone have suggestions for trades I can/should make? I don't know we're going to get worst-enemy penalties for trading with. Another thought: if we get a great artist, is it worth trying to trade for Theology/Divine Right to unblock Nationalism for a lightbulb, or is this too much effort? Alternately, we could trade for Theology and lightbulb Divine Right to make Nationalism cheaper.
Heroic Epic: We can build the Heroic Epic now. However, I'm inclined to delay it, for two reasons. First, Pisae has marble, so we'll be able to build it at double-speed in not too many more years. Second, I think we ought to look at turning a city into a Heroic Epic/Globe Theater whipping center. The obvious candidate for this is Athens: with three clams, cows, water for irrigation, and nothing else, we can probably whip out a cossack every couple turns, and there's precious little else that city can do.
Any other things people want to raise are appreciated. I might play tonight, if I hear consensus on these issues.
Long-Range Plans
Domination Threshold: Don't panic! First, remember that water doesn't count towards the land threshold. Second, consider that we need to get about 60% of the population with 50% of the land. We're human players, this isn't using BetterAI so the AI has no idea how to grow its cities, I am in no doubt that we can achieve backdoor domination without triggering real domination, if we're careful about it.
The Map's Tech Rate It appears the Hagia Sophia got built not long ago. (I was hoping to put that in Moscow, for more GE points.) We have a tech lead, but not much of one. This, honestly, is my largest worry about our current position: pikes behind culture defenses can stop a cossack rampage, and rifles, once the AIs get them, end the era of cossacks altogether. I'm worried that we may not be finished with backdoor domination before this happens.
Back-Up Plans: One thing I haven't mentioned up to this point is that up to Mass Media, the fastest space race and fastest backdoor domination tech paths look similar. I generally shoot to early Computers, to build laboratories to increase my tech rate, then go back and get Rocketry via the Chemistry-Steel-Artillery path, then Fiber Optics to build the Internet and get the techs on the Assembly Line path. The only wrinkle is that on production-poor maps, sometimes finishing the parts rather than finishing the tech is the limiting factor on space speed. This archipelago is better than usual for production, but if we want to switch to space race, we'll want to consider if we should pursue Assembly Line and Industrialism earlier, prioritizing production over tech.
The other thing I should note is that warring for more production and faster tech is also a typical part of an early space victory.
Religion and Diplomacy: We are about 8 turns away from Liberalism, and we still don't have a state religion. I would much rather pocket the extra happiness, culture (with Free Religion, it doesn't matter what religion is in a city, religion will produce culture; and we also get the culture from any holy cities we capture), and science from Free Religion than bother with a state religion: I remain skeptical that even with the religious bonuses, we're going to have much luck getting AIs to vote for us because of the hidden -4 penalty. Remember, they have to be Friendly with us, and not have better relationships with our diplomatic opponent. If there's one thing I've learned through bitter experience in Civ4, it's that engineering someone to be your diplomatic opponent is a risky gambit: if there's a clear leader in the AIs, it can work, but usually, there are two or three AIs in close competition.
In this game, not only do we have several AIs in close competition, but we have three major religious blocs to deal with. The current crop yield chart, usually a good proxy for population, has Hatshepsut in the lead, with Kublai Khan, Mao Zedong, and Tokugawa close behind. A war or differential growth rates later in the game could change our diplomatic opponent, and I wouldn't count some of the other powers out, either. Beyond this, I suspect that once the AIs develop Liberalism, some of them will switch to Free Religion too. With so many opponents, most of them don't have a self-founded religion; and with competing religious blocs, the AIs who've founded religions will probably make efforts to spread them, and this means AIs with multiple religions and no self-founded religion, and thus a possible incentive to switch to Free Religion.
Who to Kill: I think we need to start making plans for who to kill next. I see four components that should go into deciding who to kill. The most important is geography, in terms of who's close to where our army is, and who we want to eliminate to eliminate culture crush on our cities. The second is relative power ranking: do we go after the strong AIs to slow the map's tech rate or eliminate dangerous enemies, or weak AIs to add them to our empire without much effort? The third is wonders: are there any wonders we want to acquire? The fourth is diplomacy.
I think we should take the rest of the Roman island, then make peace with Caesar while leaving him Ravenna. Who's our next target then? I see a couple of candidates:
Egypt is the score leader and adjacent to our island. It has no useful wonders, is sandwiched between Mali and Inca, and is part of the small Hindu bloc.
Inca has the Great Lighthouse(!) and is reasonably close to us, past Alex, and is in the top third for score. However, it's next to Creative Egypt, and farther than other possible targets.
Japan has the Hagia Sophia and an island to itself, is part of the large Buddhist bloc, and is one of the score leaders. It's past Gandhi, about the same distance away as Inca.
Alex and Mao we've already talked about.
Next Turnset
The War: I'll keep killing Caesar until he's dead. I plan to hit Neapolis, then Antium if I have time.
Cities: I'm going to finish the market in Novgorod, then have it build military. Why is Yaroslavl' building military without a barracks? I'm going to change that immediately. St. Pete has a huge amount of whipping unhappiness to burn off. I'm going to whip libraries and universities in our Roman cities ASAP: we need to get Oxford started. I think we need to be more sparing with the whip, where possible: our cities need to grow when possible.
Next GP: We are due for a GP in 6 turns from St. Pete. This will either be a great artist (20%) or great scientist (80%). A great artist will discover Theology then Divine Right then Nationalism. A great scientist will discover Printing Press, then Astronomy. What do people feel is the appropriate use of our next GP?
Tech: We can go for Liberalism to Astronomy, as per the original plan. France and China already have Paper, which makes me think that we won't be able to sandbag Liberalism to the point of getting Military Tradition with it, but maybe I'm wrong about this. Astronomy will widen our choice of next targets, and increase our tech rate. (Don't forget an observatory in St. Pete will let us hire another scientist there!) I still lean to Astronomy, but do we want to try something else?
Tech Trading: We need to start trading for other techs here. We're going to need Drama for theaters when we start waging culture wars, Music for Military Tradition, and we need to Feudalism to see how far up the Feudalism-Guilds-Banking line the AI is. Subsidiary to this, is it worth trying for Economics? Does anyone have suggestions for trades I can/should make? I don't know we're going to get worst-enemy penalties for trading with. Another thought: if we get a great artist, is it worth trying to trade for Theology/Divine Right to unblock Nationalism for a lightbulb, or is this too much effort? Alternately, we could trade for Theology and lightbulb Divine Right to make Nationalism cheaper.
Heroic Epic: We can build the Heroic Epic now. However, I'm inclined to delay it, for two reasons. First, Pisae has marble, so we'll be able to build it at double-speed in not too many more years. Second, I think we ought to look at turning a city into a Heroic Epic/Globe Theater whipping center. The obvious candidate for this is Athens: with three clams, cows, water for irrigation, and nothing else, we can probably whip out a cossack every couple turns, and there's precious little else that city can do.
Any other things people want to raise are appreciated. I might play tonight, if I hear consensus on these issues.
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