SGOTM 05 - Misfits

[cnwjr]

The AI civs will get to move after we do, even on the last turn. There just won't be an IBT phase. The cities we take will be in revolt, so the only expansion we would gain for land would be where our culture outweighs Asoka's. I also don't know if population in revolt counts for us at the end. Also, I think, but am not sure, that the culture expansion might occur in the IBT, so we would not get an expansion if we did it on the last turn. I don't think we could make enough tanks to take the city in a single turn. With the defense of the unit, plus culture defenses, it will be tough. I would not rely on doing this. Especially if it is at the expense of what seems to already be working for us, which is the research. If we have to divert anything to build units, it needs to be more cost effective than getting another tech. As we are getting some barb tech bleed, I think we have a decent chance of getting the 5 techs researched. Especially if we work hard to maximize all the research points we can get now. Again, I have to check to see exactly where we are and what we can gain vs what Asoka is likely to gain by his researching of future techs and population growth. Of course, if we are behind on the last turn, we will do what we can, but at that point, it is too late. As a reminder, tech research is in the IBT, so research in the final turn won't matter (2050).

 

[Mastiff_of_Ar]

One thing to think about. There are times when cities don't go into revolt... when they are re-captured by the original owner. Is that based on the population of the city? Say, if over 50% of the pop is still Mongolian, will it just revert back to us? We can get a spy over to check out the situation...

As far as the attack, it should be the same number of turns as a sea attack if we unloaded troops. We can position 2 spots to the NE, DoW, move onto the hill NE in turn #1, then attack turn #2.

If Asoka doesn't fly in more jets, (he has one jet, one ME, and a SAM) then every bomber past the third has a free shot. So, at 15%, wouldn't 7 bombers reduce the defenses to zero? Then, whatever survives can attack the units the next turn.

 

[cnwjr]

The only time I have seen a city not revolt upon recapture is when the recapture is fairly soon. It has been a long time since the city was captured by Asoka.

For the rest, I need to check actual numbers to see what can be produced and arrive in time. The existing ships can certainly make it anywhere in the world in the remaining time.

The questions become: do we need to have combat at all? If so, how much do we need to take to make a difference in the final result? How much research would be lost to produce sufficient units to accomplish the necessary tasks? Is the trade off of taking one or more cities worth the difference in city tasking?

We have 8 days left to finish this game, so we have time to do a bit of testing to see how much land, population, and research is worth respectively.

 

[Mastiff_of_Ar]

Actually, it wasn't captured... it was given away for peace. None of our population will be there.

So, if we raze it, Asoka loses the pop, and the next turn we gain the land. I think we'd have to attack in 2047 if at all.

 

[cnwjr]

Attacking too early is very, very bad. Cyrus and Asoka would have time to squash us on the shared lands. I am assuming they have airports and transports somewhere and 2047 gives them 4 turns to move and attack. That's enough time to send troops to our mainland as well. We are very lightly defended there, so not a good idea. I still think our best chance is research. 1 tech is around 120-200 points combined with us and the barbs, where a city is only its population and land values, which is puny in comparison. I would really, really prefer not to attack at all, but that depends on whether we can get there with research alone.... and assuming that Asoka, et.al. don't decide to attack us anyway. The only reason attack is even in the realm of possibility is if we come up short in research. We are only about 250 points behind, so if we are getting techs faster, we will win. I hope. I will check the actual number of techs we can get without barb bleed in a few hours when I get home. I will check how close we are. I think (hope), if we can squeeze out 5 techs instead of only 4, we should certainly win

 

[Mastiff_of_Ar]

I'll set everything back to research, and hope for the best. But, I do think we should have some contingency plan if we're a few points short.

I don't think Asoka will attack. Cy? Maybe, but that breaks his bond with Asoka... If Asoka is leading right up to the end, why would he risk attacking? If we get that last tech that edges him out, he won't have time...

I'll play when I get home a little later, setting everything we have to research. I still think Medina is the best "contingency" plan, though.

 

[cnwjr]

I just ran some numbers. I switched everything in the cities to maximize research. Assuming we can maintain 60% or at least 600 research per turn and assuming that the barb bleed stays constant or accelerates, we should be able to research all 6 remaining techs in the next 21 turns. At 60% with this change, we produce 1030 research per turn. I think we should win if we don't have a war. If we do, Medina is only a population 6 city and would be worthless for the most part. Barb bleed alone should give us Robotics and Fusion.

Edit: I would check the barb bleed every turn to see if there are any changes so we can recalculate if needed.

 

[cnwjr]

If we do decide to invade, I still think Calcutta is the best choice. It can be isolated, has few defenders, and is 20 population.

We have:
Gunships - 5
Infantry - 9
Sam Infantry - 2
Tanks - 4
Artillery - 23

I would put blocking forces in tiles 1-3 and split the attacking forces in 4 & 5. The blocking forces should be a tank and a gunship and an infantry in each of 1-3. This should slow any assaults. This leaves 2 gunships, 6 infantry, the 2 sams, 1 tank and the 23 arty for the remaining two hexes. This also assumes we put everything we have into a single attack. Of course, we could also stack everything remaining from the blocking forces in a single hex, which might be better. This is 33 units to attack. There is even enough arty to knock down the city culture defense to 0 before actually attacking. At 25%/attack, this should only take 4 arty, leaving 19 to kill the defenders (currently a marine and two sams).

 

[Mastiff_of_Ar]

Okay... full research, leave troops where they are! I'm on it...

 

[Mastiff_of_Ar]

Five techs are 24 turns... 3 turns of barb bleed, I assume?

Also, the battle plan doesn't account for 9 jet fighters and 5 stealths in the area... Can you take another look at Medina? It might be the six points we need to win it all.

EDIT: Oh, one more thing. If we up the culture level and drop science near the last turn, several of our unhappy citizens will become happy... could be important

 

[cnwjr]

Measure the barb bleed each turn (check the accumulated points toward each of the techs). The aircraft are not enough to totally wipe out a force, though they can hurt it. That's one reason I suggested a medic in each stack. It's not a lot, but it can't hurt. The sams are good for two aircraft (probably fighters). We will take casualties. Assuming we need to. I think we will be ahead in score possibly by the end of your 10 turn TS. Or close to it. You should be able to acquire a minimum of three techs in those 10 turns.

That's assuming you make the techs for money trade and go to 80% for several turns.

A reminder: watch Jaipur and the towns/oil well around it. That's one reason I was looking at 60% long term. We need a bit of cash to hit the well and towns as they are rebuilt. Jaipur has only 16 production/turn right now, but each additional hammer is doubled due to the factory and only 512 hammers are needed to finish the last spaceship part.

 

[Mastiff_of_Ar]

I'm keeping an eye on Jaipur.

My math sucks, but I'm reading a -182 after 1 turn, but Asoka is about to get... Future Tech 9. Nine! Hope it doesn't count for much!

Edit: We're -216 with 16 turns to go. I'm putting up 2034.

 

[Piko]

go mastiff yes umm saladland is vulnerable, do not forget, we declare war, they can knock out a city there!

 

[Piko]

at current rate to win based on turn 21, we should be on -186 points if on track for a victory. If population is worth so little, shouldnt we do a mass specialist economy now with the population we do have? scientists in every city? to a maximum, even if the city is losing food reserves, if they wont starve within 16 turns, make another scientist yes?

 

[cnwjr]

A specialist economy is what I already suggested with the maximize research approach. As it turns out, we have points to spare assuming barb contribution is constant. I won't have time to look at the save until really late today, so I can't check the bleed rates. I think we are okay, but it really depends on how fast Asoka is gaining future tech. He was so far ahead in techs originally that it is hard to tell how many future techs he can research. I hadn't seen any future tech bleed last I looked, and they are so expensive that we can't finish one without it.

Mastiff, are you done or pausing? If pausing, please wait for me to check the numbers. If you have them, post the research totals turn by turn.

 

[Piko]

i have to admit, considering every other team is waiting for us to finish... it would be funny to get the win on the very last turn show them it was worth it lol

I'm all up to be in the same team next game, i'm loyal well we know our strengths... well we know our weaknesses hehe I am slowly getting more comfortable with monarch, though i havent played as much as i would like. If i find a start i'm happy with i can usually get myself a victory, i don't think i've ever had a final turn points victory ever hehe, however unless you are planning on a cultural victory, you certainly have to kill your nearest neighbour ASAP and from there you are always in a top position aslong as you manage your economy.

 

[cnwjr]

I guess Mastiff is done.

Piko, you and I can split the last 16 turns. I will do 8 later today. I

f we are on pace, we should get a tech this turn to make sure we are progressing. I will carefully check our barb bleed to recheck my calculations.

 

[Mastiff_of_Ar]

Yeah, I was a bit uncomfortable after a few turns... so I put it up. I also had to be away yesterday, so I assumed you guys would grab it. Next time I'll make sure to say I'm done, and not just pausing...

Everyone is waiting on us?! Some of them were way behind last I checked!

 

[Piko]

heheh yer i just double checked we not the slowest team by any margin, of any team that hasnt finished yet, we are the closest Can we avoid wooden spoon?

alright, i'll trust your calculations cnw, it will be a close finish. cross your fingers guys

 

[cnwjr]

Played out my 8 turns to 2042.

We are currently researching the last tech we have to put points into. Another 3 turns is necessary on Genetics. All the other techs will be produced by barb bleed as follows.
Composites - 6 turns
Ecology - 7 turns
Robotics - 3 turns
Fusion - 2 turns
Edit: These might speed up if Toku and/or Cyrus research them.

That will give us five turns for cash for upgrades if we get attacked, or for culture if we don't. Either choice is reasonable. It appears that population is worth about 5 points per pop point to the score.

The troops are on station if we decide at the last minute that we want to attack. Calcutta has 20 population, so that would be a 100 point loss to Asoka. I seem to have miscounted a bit somehow and we only have three tanks instead of the four I mentioned earlier.

Keep a watch on Jaipur. I had to hit the oil well and three villages that had turned into towns. At the moment the last spaceship part is 15 turns away with 8 to play, but beware and check it carefully. We might have to accumulate a few turns of cash to hit the city's production itself if Asoka decides to throw engineers and/or priests into the mix. That will cost about 4 turns of cash.

I'd suggest starting to switch research to cash in another turn or two. We have a cushion of about 500 points of research in our next three turns to get to where the barb bleed finishes genetics.

It's also worth it to switch back to food production if we can get growth in the next 8 turns.

Piko, you're up next. And last, it appears. Don't forget to play another turn (just one more turn) after the victory in order to get the final save.