SGOTM 06 - Xteam

[ShannonCT]

Tell me where, and I'd sure like to see an updated whip schedule for the other cities.

Switch Athens and Ironsite to galleons now. Whip on turn 208. Along with York's galleon, this will allow us to deposit 9 units next to Nidaros or Upsalla on turn 210.

 

[Cactus Pete]

Switch Athens and Ironsite to galleons now. Whip on turn 208. Along with York's galleon, this will allow us to deposit 9 units next to Nidaros or Upsalla on turn 210.

Will do.

"What should stop the AI from using an attacking unit either way? Will it only attack if this can be done in 1 turn?" I was reasoning that it would get another turn to heal (and would heal other units) if it defended successfully.

Taking leif's suggestion, I moved the worker to look at Perepolis. Not good . . .

Let's discuss temporarily abandoning the city after attacking the archer (90% success, then could move all three units out of reach of cat). Getting Persian units out of Persepolis to defend Pasargadae could facilitate capture and holding of both

(I'll delay playing.)

 

[Frederiksberg]

Doesn't look too bad either. I see a galley inside Persepolis so we can sail our attack force right up to the city.

If we abandon Parsargadea I think the cultural defense will return and when we recapture the revolt period will be longer than it is now so I don't really like that Option (We loose turns before we can whip units). How long before Fred's Ferry can deliver units outside Persepolis? That would probably keep the axe inside the city.

 

[ShannonCT]

Let's discuss temporarily abandoning the city after attacking the archer.

The main drawback to abandoning the city is that it will add on several more turns of revolt and reduce its usefulness as a place to whip units (for attacking Susa/Medina/Gordium).

What if we left the WE in Parsargadae and gave it a chance to keep the city, but moved the axe and sword onto the road SW of the city? Persia only has one unit that can attack next turn. If the cat loses, we keep the city and are just 4 turns away from being able to whip it. If the cat wins, our sword attacks the lone cat next turn with a high chance of killing it (CR3 will dominate in this scenario).

I also notice in your screenie that Persepolis is on a bay. Units on Fred's Ferry should land north of the city in 2 turns. Landing in 1 turn won't do much good.

 

[Frederiksberg]

If we leave only the WE in the city we could loose it to a double attack by the cat followed by the Arab archer.

If we attack the cat with the WE we have reasonable odds of winning. If we win the AI might send a spear to kill the WE but it may not send two units (both axe and spear). The spear wont be able to threaten Parsargadea and it may give us time to bring the Fred's Ferry stack in position. If the axe comes out we still have time to abandon Parsargadea if the odds look bad. Should the WE fail to beat the cat it will be badly wounded and not able to attack. In that case we should probably do nothing and hope that the axe doesn't advance. If it does we may have to bail out.

In other words, I think it's premature to give up Parsagadea this turn.

 

[leif erikson]

None of the Galleys can reach Persepolis until turn 2. Depending upon the configuration of the shoreline, the three Galleon group may require a third turn before they can unload beside the city.

First, Pasargadae. I think Fred's analysis is a good one. Let's not give up the city too soon. I think we should attack the Cat with the WE. I don't see how the Arab Archer can have that great of a chance attacking across a river.

Second, I would suggest that we move the Galleon stack of three up to Fred's Ferry's position and exchange a WE for a Sword in case Fred's is the only Galleon that can offload next to Persepolis on turn 2. A Sword, WE and Cat seem to be the best combo.

Before we exchange units, how many of the units do we need to take out Persepolis? If it is 9 or less, then perhaps we should take one of the Galleons in the stack and configure the unit load to take on Tarsus? That would get the ball rolling to head up towards Gordium?

Fred, I like your idea concerning some detailed planning by War Theater. In doing this, we can identify the capabilities of what we have in each theater and what we are short of. Then the planning would be about filling the shortages as efficiently as possible, perhaps even taking from one theater and giving to another, then deciding how to make that up. Perhaps later today I can play around a bit and see if anything comes from it?

 

[ShannonCT]

I put together a master plan as a talking point:

Southern Theater:

Fred's Ferry drops off the cat and swords north of Persepolis on turn 207. The 3-galleon floatilla drops off 2 cats and the chariot SE of Ecbatana on turn 206 and sends the other 6 units to be dropped off at Perseoplis on turn 208.

Persepolis should be taken and razed on turn 210 or 211. Survivors from Persepolis/Parsargadae can help with Gordium or Medina (both of which we should be able to see by turn 211). If those cities are in hand, the survivors can move toward Susa. Parsargadae can be whipped for cats on turns 210, 211, and 212 (if we don't lose it on turn 206).

Thunder Rider picks up a CR3 sword and 2 WEs from Athens on turn 206 and heads west with them. Next turn, it transfers them to Leif's Longship, and then to one of the three ships in the main floatilla that has been emptied. This last ship in the chain arrives at Tarsus on turn 208. After Tarsus has been razed, the surviving units get shipped to Gordium. Empty Thunder Rider heads north to serve London. Empty Leif's Longship goes east to serve Athens.

On turn 206, the three units in Ecbatana move north toward Birka. On turn 207, whip an Xbow in Ecbatana and on turn 208, the Xbow, 2 cats, and chariot also move toward Birka. Birka is attacked on turn 210-211, and razed. The surviving units can help with the missing Arabian city if needed, or be loaded onto galleons for the final assault on the Vikings.

On turn 207, the galleon from York lands its 3 units NW of Haithabu to avoid detection by the Vikings. The York galleon returns to serve London. Haithabu is razed and the survivors move NW to look for the missing Arabian city.


Northern Theater:

Gator Buggy takes a cat, sword, and WE around the peninsula and lands north of Medina on turn 208, taking the city soon after if possible. Gator Buggy stays between Medina and Damascus to transfer units when necessary. MP's Floating Lab waits to move units from Mecca to Damascus. The 8/8XP WE promotes to Medic next turn and all units around Mecca heal. Mecca comes out of revolt on turn 210 and should be whipped for cats on turns 210, 211 and 213. The army in Mecca then attacks Damascus (or Damascus and Kufah simultaneously, depending on what happens with Medina).

The cat, axe, and Xbow in Baghdad move west on turn 206 to begin the assault on Susa. The Xbow north of Baghdad stays put until turn 208 when we whip an archer. The new archer can be upgraded to an Xbow and 1 Xbow can move toward Susa. The Susa party attacks Susa if it is weak, or bombards and waits for reinforcements from the south if it is heavily defended.


Viking Theater:

Whip galleons in Ironsite and Athens on turn 208 and then continue production of the cat in Ironsite and the WE in Athens. Load these 2 galleons on turn 209. Load three accuracy cats onto the York galleon (returning from Haithabu) on turn 209 as well. Use the GG to promote the 0XP cat west of London, the 3XP cat and 3XP WE north of London, and the 3XP WE SE of London. Ironsite galleon, York galleon, and Athens galleon land 9 units north of Upsalla on turn 210, and then return to their respective ports for a second wave. These 9 units attack Upsalla after bombardment, and the survivors walk to Nidaros. Athens galleon and Leif's Longship bring a final shipment from Athens, Ironsite galleon brings a final shipment from Ironsite, and York galleon and Thunder Rider bring a final shipment from London, all to Nidaros.

 

[Frederiksberg]

Second, I would suggest that we move the Galleon stack of three up to Fred's Ferry's position and exchange a WE for a Sword in case Fred's is the only Galleon that can offload next to Persepolis on turn 2. A Sword, WE and Cat seem to be the best combo.

Excellent idea . The WE will protect against the axe.

Before we exchange units, how many of the units do we need to take out Persepolis? If it is 9 or less, then perhaps we should take one of the Galleons in the stack and configure the unit load to take on Tarsus? That would get the ball rolling to head up towards Gordium?

Good question. 9 against 4 may be to few and 12 against 4 more than needed. We also have 3 units in Ecbatana that can be brought fast into play.

I put together a master plan as a talking point:

This is a good starting point for discussion .

 

[Cactus Pete]

If we leave only the WE in the city we could loose it to a double attack by the cat followed by the Arab archer. Yes, and that would put a double-promoted archer as a city defender.

If we attack the cat with the WE we have reasonable odds of winning. If we win the AI might [My experience leads me to think that the spear will almost certainly attack. Anyone else have an opinion on this?]send a spear to kill the WE but it may not send two units (both axe and spear). The spear wont be able to threaten Parsargadea and it may give us time to bring the Fred's Ferry stack in position. If the axe comes out we still have time to abandon Parsargadea if the odds look bad. Should the WE fail to beat the cat it will be badly wounded and not able to attack. In that case we should probably do nothing and hope that the axe doesn't advance. If it does we may have to bail out. Certainly agree that we will have to bail out under an axe attack. Unfortunately, I think that is very likely to happen.

In other words, I think it's premature to give up Parsagadea this turn.

Still not completely convinced that abandonment should be abandoned. Really like to know the answer to these two questions before deciding what to do: If the axe re-takes the city unopposed, will it go into anarchy for a turn(s)? Does the cat get any defensive benefit from culture?

 

[Frederiksberg]

If we abandon the city it could also be captured by the Arab archer and that would make it more difficult to recapture.

 

[ShannonCT]

Still not completely convinced that abandonment should be abandoned. Really like to know the answer to these two questions before deciding what to do: If the axe re-takes the city unopposed, will it go into anarchy for a turn(s)? Does the cat get any defensive benefit from culture?

If a Persian unit takes the city while it is still in revolt, the city will not be in anarchy for the Persians. The culture defense bonus will be whatever it was before we took the city plus whatever culture it would normally recover (maybe +6%). Cats receive no defensive bonuses.

Killing the Arab archer and abandoning the city this turn would give us a good chance of saving all three units and earning a promotion for the sword. The sword will be 99.99% to beat the cat inside the city, and if our elephant survives the battle with the Arab archer with at least 4.6 strength remaining, it would be favored against a counterattack by the axeman in Persepolis. If we have a good chance of saving the axe, sword, and WE, are we willing to give up the cats that we could whip in Parsargadae?

If we just keep our units in Parsargadae, I calculate that the Persian cat would be 65% to kill our WE. If we attack the Persian cat with our WE, win or lose, we're very likely to lose our WE. If the WE is killed, our sword and axe would be in serious jeopardy from the Persian axe, which may or may not stay inside Persepolis when it sees our galleons approaching. If our WE survives the attack from the cat, we have a pretty good shot at holding onto Parsargadae. The Arab archer will have a hard time killing our sword attacking accross the river. And if we have 3 units standing in Parsargadae, I don't think Persia will send out both the axe and the spear with our galleons approaching from the SE.

So if we stay put in Parsargadae, we probably have a 30-35% chance of keeping our three units and a 35-50% chance of being able to whip 2-3 cats that will actually come in time to help us win faster. If we abandon Parsargadae, we probably have a 80-90% chance of keeping our three units but a 0% chance of being able to whip cats there in time.

It's a tough call.

If we abandon the city it could also be captured by the Arab archer and that would make it more difficult to recapture.

If we abandon the city, the WE should attack the Arab archer.

 

[Cactus Pete]

Southern Theater:

Fred's Ferry drops off the cat and swords north of Persepolis on turn 207. Would like clarification that we are now nearing the end of turn 205. As F'sF passes Ectabana, I'd like to exchange a WE for a sword there so can drop off WE, cat, and sword SE of PER, thereby allowing the galleon to return quicker and the tile will be protected, allowing subsequent galleon(s) to drop off in just two turns.
On turn 207, the galleon from York lands its 3 units NW of Haithabu to avoid detection by the Vikings. The York galleon returns to serve London. Haithabu is razed and the survivors move NW to look for the missing Arabian city. Uncomfortable with this. What do we think defends Haithabu? The Viking HA's could trail our surviving units and pick us off. Rather get a WE there to contain the Vikings and perhaps keep city to faciltate troop movement.


Northern Theater:

Gator Buggy takes a cat, sword, and WE around the peninsula and lands north of Medina on turn 208, taking the city soon after if possible. Gator Buggy stays between Medina and Damascus to transfer units when necessary. MP's Floating Lab waits to move units from Mecca to Damascus. The 8/8XP WE promotes to Medic next turn and all units around Mecca heal. Mecca comes out of revolt on turn 210 and should be whipped for cats on turns 210, 211 and 213. The army in Mecca then attacks Damascus (or Damascus and Kufah simultaneously, depending on what happens with Medina). That's what I had in mind, though I'm going to see what the Damascus chariots do IBT before committing to it.

The cat, axe, and Xbow in Baghdad move west on turn 206 to begin the assault on Susa. The Xbow north of Baghdad stays put until turn 208 when we whip an archer. The new archer can be upgraded to an Xbow and 1 Xbow can move toward Susa. The Susa party attacks Susa if it is weak, or bombards and waits for reinforcements from the south if it is heavily defended. Comfortable with that.


Viking Theater:

Whip galleons in Ironsite and Athens on turn 208 and then continue production of the cat in Ironsite and the WE in Athens. Load these 2 galleons on turn 209. Load three accuracy cats onto the York galleon (returning from Haithabu) on turn 209 as well. Use the GG to promote the 0XP cat west of London, the 3XP cat and 3XP WE north of London, and the 3XP WE SE of London Don't we want this WE to board Ironsite galleon? There is a WE 6 tiles NW of London that I think we can have promoted and in place by 209. . Ironsite galleon, York galleon, and Athens galleon land 9 units north of Upsalla on turn 210, and then return to their respective ports for a second wave. These 9 units attack Upsalla after bombardment, and the survivors walk to Nidaros. Athens galleon and Leif's Longship bring a final shipment from Athens, Ironsite galleon brings a final shipment from Ironsite, and York galleon and Thunder Rider bring a final shipment from London, all to Nidaros.

I have an alternative plan for he use of the three stacked galleons-- see below.

 

[Frederiksberg]

Certainly agree that we will have to bail out under an axe attack. Unfortunately, I think that is very likely to happen.

This is probably a key point. Will the AI be willing to leave its capital defended by only two units?

 

[DJMGator13]

I see a galley inside Persepolis so we can sail our attack force right up to the city.

The water access explains the difference in the land area count also.

 

[Jimmy Thunder]

Appreciate the work with the master plan This is the vision and framework that we need to coordinate our war theatres so each can be completed in time. I agree that we need some redundacny for city attack forces that cannot be reinforced easily (is this the Medina situation where we want to send 3 units right away but need to keep some backup units within reach?).

The situation in Parsargadae is a tough one indeed.

We could leave the WE and Axe in the city to heal while suiciding our sword on the catapult. The sword should badly wound the cat so that it won't attack next turn. The healed axe and WE will be able to keep the city from harm until it is out of revolt, and we will eventually get those three whipped cats that we want. The arabian archer will be insignifcant if we have our WE stay in the city.

 

[Jimmy Thunder]

This is probably a key point. Will the AI be willing to leave its capital defended by only two units?

I have a strong feeling (from experience) that the AI won't leave a size 13 city defended by less than 3 units. Haven't tested though. Did klarius provide some kind of analysis on this in the last sgotm for Murky Waters?

 

[Cactus Pete]

"Thunder Rider picks up a CR3 sword and 2 WEs from Athens on turn 206 and heads west with them. Next turn, it transfers them to Leif's Longship [No, not to LL but to Shannon's Raiders, which, after dropping units on ECT hill and heading west, will be perfectly positioned in 2 turns to chain with Thunder Rider. Moreover, this frees LL to reach the tile SE of London in just 2 turns where it can pick up 3 units that I'll have moved there.], and then to one of the three ships in the main floatilla that has been emptied. This last ship in the chain arrives at Tarsus on turn 208. After Tarsus has been razed, the surviving units get shipped to Gordium. Empty Thunder Rider heads north to serve London. Empty Leif's Longship goes east to serve Athens."

"The 3-galleon floatilla drops off 2 cats and the chariot SE of Ecbatana on turn 206" (Shannon's Raiders, specifically -- definitely want to do this)

"and sends the other 6 units to be dropped off at Persepolis on turn 208." I prefer the following alternative (mainly because I don't like tying up 3 galleons transporting all the way to Persepolis, when there is much else to be done and 2 galleons can get the job done in a timely manner through staging): Cactus Breeze follows F'sF to drop off WE and 2 cats in PER (cats should be particularly effective here and immediate bombardment is needed) and then, again following F'sF, returns to Ecbatana in just one turn to pick up six units there and transport them to PERS. rrau's raft is first sailed 3 tiles NW to find out what's in Birka and then towards Haithabu, where its troops will combine the following turn with those from the York galleon and then take the city the following turn with enough strength to hold it and hem in the Vikings. Leftover cats can subsequently be moved toward Birka or the Arab fog city as needed and rrau's raft will be free for other tranport as needed.

"Persepolis should be taken and razed on turn 210 or 211." Don't expect to get this done before 212, but the trade-off is being in better position elsewhere.

On turn 206, the three units in Ecbatana move north toward Birka." Birka will be delayed in favor of taking Haithabu, but its location makes it an extremely easy place to move available troops to.

 

[Cactus Pete]

The situation in Parsargadae is a tough one indeed. We could leave the WE and Axe in the city to heal while suiciding our sword on the catapult. The sword should badly wound the cat so that it won't attack next turn.

Never even considered sacrificing a 3CR sword, but that may be the best option. SCT, the odds of victory against the cat are only 11%, what is the expected damage in defeat?

 

[ShannonCT]

Never even considered sacrificing a 3CR sword, but that may be the best option. SCT, the odds of victory against the cat are only 11%, what is the expected damage in defeat?

Cat would average 2.6 strength remaining after the battle. It would probably be healed to attack again after turn 207 (it will heal 1 strength per turn).

 

[Cactus Pete]

Cat would average 2.6 strength remaining after the battle. It would probably be healed to attack again after turn 207 (it will heal 1 strength per turn).

By 207, we could attack it with a healed WE and still have a nearly-healed axe in the city. Moreover, we'll have landed Fred's Ferry, so they might not even try to counterattack the WE if it wins.

Anxious to hear what the team's choice of the best bad Pasargadae option is, as well as comments on the routing of galleons for troop transport.

If we can get these two issues in agreement, what about my playing mid-morning tomorrow (about 16hours from now). Like to have the freedom to play 5-7 turns, depending on how it goes, but I would pause for consultation should new problems arise, as I expect they will.