SGOTM 06 - Xteam

[ShannonCT]

"In the culture worldview, some Persian cities have what appears to be conflicting Arabian Culture?" Educate me, rrau. What is a 'cultural world view', and how do you see it?

Zoom out far enough so that the menu buttons in the bottom right corner change. Hit the button.

I'd like to know exactly how good a shape relative to other teams. Expect exact is too much to ask, but can we come up with the probability of coming in first if we finish in 7, 8, 9, 10, etc. turns? That would be especially helpful to JT, if he has to make a call between being agressive or conservative in taking the last city(s).

Murky Waters is looking very strong now. We may not have a chance for the Gold. OSS and Smurkz are right with us, so I'd say we should be reasonably aggressive in taking the last cities. So use cats for suiciding and not bombarding if it means having a strong chance of taking the city one turn earlier. Just be careful about being aggressive in a situation where bad luck will set us back several turns.

I will send the worker on the hill NE of Medina to find out what is in Susa next turn. If it is heavily defended, I may send the crossbow near Kufah to Susa (he's positioned so he can get there as soon as the axe). In that case, how do you like our odds if I send one of the Mecca swords to Kufah and one of the whipped cats to Damascus?

CR3 swords will be favored in Kufah after bombardment, and probably heavily favored if we suicide 2 cats.

Damascus should be quite easy to take if our sword and WE survive Medina. The 2 archers are the only units to worry about there. Chariots are going to mincemeat against swords and WEs.

So I think you can make a judgement call about whether to send the Xbow to Susa or Kufah.

 

[leif erikson]

"In the culture worldview, some Persian cities have what appears to be conflicting Arabian Culture?" Educate me, rrau. What is a 'cultural world view', and how do you see it?

The sceenie in rrau's post, #1293, shows it. North of Susa, near Kufah, you can see that the tiles are checked with the colors of both Arabia and Persia. To see in game, you can click on "Glove View", it is located on the extreme right above the mini-map, and then click on the culture view, it looks like two pink musical notes, and the display will come up.

I will send the worker on the hill NE of Medina to find out what is in Susa next turn. If it is heavily defended, I may send the crossbow near Kufah to Susa (he's positioned so he can get there as soon as the axe). In that case, how do you like our odds if I send one of the Mecca swords to Kufah and one of the whipped cats to Damascus?

When you double whip Mecca, will it be an Archer and a Cat, then a WE? You could replace the X-Bow heading for Susa with the whipped one and then send a WE to Damascus?

Becoming convinced that HBR is not worth it.

It is looking like it would not provide any return.

Would like some ideas about what to do with the GG now in Haithabu.

Once Birka is gone, we could send him towards Susa if it is heavily defended for promotions of units there before we attack. He can move faster than our units?

Another option would be to have him help with promotions to take Nidaros. I don't think using more Galleon space for him is worth it though. We need to get those units from home to Nidaros.

Our financial situation is not quite as bad as it looks in the save. CP has MMed Athens, Ironsite, and York for production and growth at the expense of working gold mines. We can switch back to gold mines in those three cities (and MM other cities for commerce) in a few turns when we've produced all the units we can use. We should be able to MM for another 30-35 GPT.

As we take cities, I think we will be OK. Not going for HBR will also help. As long as we can pay for Archer upgrades.
An Chariots cannot be upgraded to HA's, so we would have to pop-rush what we need.

 

[ShannonCT]

All other units can assemble SW of Pers. On turn 212, CR2 cat attacks from the north, all other cats attack from the SW, and then swords and WEs mop up. Need to study this. Not exactly what I had in mind. Survivors of the battle can help with Gordium.

If we keep most of our units SW of Pers, on the same turn that we take the city, we can load survivors onto a galleon and sail toward Gordium. Transfer them to the other galleon near Gordium (on turn 212) and land them on turn 213.

There probably is no rush, but, should no archer be built in Uppsala IBT (and I suspect it might be, or the archers and settler wouldn't have departed the city), what about attacking next turn with the three landed units plus amphibious assault? We'd take very heavy losses, but there is an abundance of units. Further, the Vikings might weaken themselvess by sending units to re-capture Uppsala and we could sail into the city to eliminate the counterattackers.

Sounds like a good idea if there are only two units in Upsalla next turn.

When you double whip Mecca, will it be an Archer and a Cat, then a WE? You could replace the X-Bow heading for Susa with the whipped one and then send a WE to Damascus?

Xbows are not so good against Mecca, with no melee units to kill. WEs can't be whipped without a connection to our network. So I'd say Mecca should whip only cats. There's no need to double whip Mecca, as it has plenty of food. I'd whip cats on turns 210 and 211, and then start building an archer (probably useless).

Once Birka is gone, we could send him towards Susa if it is heavily defended for promotions of units there before we attack. He can move faster than our units?

Another option would be to have him help with promotions to take Nidaros. I don't think using more Galleon space for him is worth it though. We need to get those units from home to Nidaros.

Sending the GG to Susa risks getting him killed by wandering units. I seem to remember an Arab archer wandering around somewhere. I would say just upgrade units in Haithabu. Some CR2/Accuracy cats would be nice.

 

[DJMGator13]

Just did a tile count. Damascus, Kufah, and Medina make 50 tiles, exactly what the demographics screen shows Arabia as having (51*3 - 71 - 32 = 50). There is no mystery Arab city. And there are no other unknown Viking or Persian cities either. The only thing we don't know is what units are in Susa.

I doubled checked and agree. Numbers match up. To get Rival Average of 51 means Arabia has 51 tiles this time, which is the total from the 3 visible cities. Difference may be attributed to a city that was captured that turn when I did the calculation last time, that was probably a beginning of the turn number.

Persia has picked up some tiles from expansion not from a new city, so no change there.

IBT:

Cat built in Nidaros, and the two Uppsala archers and settler move out of city.

I'd try to pick off those archers before they can found a city and get a defensive bonus.

 

[DJMGator13]

I don't think we can afford HBR and I don't think it will do any good either. Horse archers only get from Parsargadae or Mecca to their intended targets one turn earlier than cats. And cats are much more useful for taking cities.

Our financial situation is not quite as bad as it looks in the save. CP has MMed Athens, Ironsite, and York for production and growth at the expense of working gold mines. We can switch back to gold mines in those three cities (and MM other cities for commerce) in a few turns when we've produced all the units we can use. We should be able to MM for another 30-35 GPT.

HBR no good now. As SCT says in a few turns when production is done we can also do our civic change to either Police State or even better to Representative and Caste (3 turn of anarchy) then we hire Merchants and get extra happy people in our 5 largest cities.

 

[leif erikson]

Xbows are not so good against Mecca, with no melee units to kill. WEs can't be whipped without a connection to our network. So I'd say Mecca should whip only cats. There's no need to double whip Mecca, as it has plenty of food. I'd whip cats on turns 210 and 211, and then start building an archer (probably useless).

I think you're right. Missed that we weren't hooked up and won't be in a reasonable amount of time...

 

[DJMGator13]

I think you're right. Missed that we weren't hooked up and won't be in a reasonable amount of time...

It would take capture/raze of Kufah and roading of tile NW of Baghdad for Mecca to be hooked up. [EDIT: If Kufah & Mecca connected.]

BTW, the Civ4/Warlord Excel reference download file v1.61+W2.08
incorrectly shows chariots as upgrading to HA.

 

[Cactus Pete]

Having studied SCT's suggestions regarding PERS, I'm going to move the 2 swords SE of the city to the hill north of the city over the next two turns; otherwise, I'll play at as he outlined it.

There seem to be no outstanding issues unresolved, so I'm going to go ahead and play a couple more turns, then hand it over to JT.

 

[Jimmy Thunder]

Sounds good. I will be playing my turns very slowly with our thorough plan sitting on the desk next to the computer.

We should be able to play the last turns as an exact science and close this one out.

I agree with SCT's comment to play aggressively everywhere except for where a bad combat roll will set us back for more than a turn.

 

[DJMGator13]

Something to do while CP plays.

Murky Waters is looking very strong now. We may not have a chance for the Gold. OSS and Smurkz are right with us, so I'd say we should be reasonably aggressive in taking the last cities. So use cats for suiciding and not bombarding if it means having a strong chance of taking the city one turn earlier. Just be careful about being aggressive in a situation where bad luck will set us back several turns.

Been comparing the Score Graphs to the Power Graphs:

OSS: T189=762, T194=749, T199=724 while their power graph still show increase but at a slower rate. They may have overwhipped their population, but they may have amassed a large invasion force before attacking. Their power is still increasing but at a slower rate then when they were mass whipping. It will be interesting to see their next save's affect on the Power graph. They may not have enough population to replace units lost in battle. Compared to us they are behind in score but about even in power at 485AD.

Murky Water: T173=809, T178=899, T184=870. The 30 point drop surprises me. Did they overwhip, also or did they amass a large force and then launch attack on the other continent? Next save's Power graph might reveal. Ahead of us in both score and power at 260AD.

Smurkz: their graphs look more similar to ours, as in their growth in power graph did not come at the expense of their score. They may have whipped while attacking as we did. At 470AD they are only slightly behind us in score and power.

This may come down to things like did the AI build cities on hills in their games like most of the Arabian cities are here and did any AI get to Longbows.

 

[Jimmy Thunder]

I guess:
Smurkz's pace is about the same as us.
OSS are have had a similar pace to us pre-astronomy but are using the whip much more than us, even before finding the distant continent.
Murky Waters are ahead of us pre-astronomy and will likely have a decent pace for the final conquest phase too.

From the graphs, MW are in a strong position for gold and we are in the middle of a fierce contest for silver.

I think we employed a very strong strategy pre-astronomy with the early connection of metals and the early capture of Timbuktu. Without a few of our little mistakes and an unfortunate battle at Carthage, our score/power graph would have been off the charts

 

[ShannonCT]

I think we employed a very strong strategy pre-astronomy with the early connection of metals and the early capture of Timbuktu. Without a few of our little mistakes and an unfortunate battle at Carthage, our score/power graph would have been off the charts

The other thing I have been wondering about our strategy is whether it would have been better to chop the Pyramids in Athens than the gold we chopped there. It might have increased our average beaker rate with all of the scientist specialists we were using.

 

[DJMGator13]

Speaking of gold chops there is a 6 forest city spot by Carthage and Bantu, if we settle on the eastern most wine. Timb could poprush current sword build then use the 15 hammer overflow to start a settler. Let Timb grow back to size 5 while claiming the 36 hammer forest chop, then poprush the settler for 2 more pop. We only need to road 1 tile to provide stone off the river from Bantu and there are workers in the area of Timb, Bantu and Ivoryville that can all chop the wall.

 

[Cactus Pete]

Here is the save and my log for the last two turns . . . went well, though additional AI unit builds have made it more difficult, and additional ones would now be truly troublesome.

http://gotm.civfanatics.net/saves/civ4sgotm6/Xteam_SG006_AD0665_01.CivWarlordsSave

CACTUS PETE
SGOTM6 REPORT TO 665AD


IBT: Arab archer moves out of fog and onto roaded forest SSE of Mecca; additional axe built in PERS; new archer built in Upsalla, and the 2 roving Upsalla archers and settler disappear to the north.

650AD (turn 210):

Cannot whip more than one unit at a time in Pasargadae or Mecca -- must have misunderstood something.

Barb axe revealed NNW of PERS, threatening units we would like to move onto hill north of city.

Raze Tarsus, with loss of 1 WE and very little damage to other 2 units.

Gordium revealed to contain single-combat-promoted axe and spear, along with 2 cats (no culture).

Maneuvered units into position everywhere -- in particular, managed to cut off Viking archers (eliminating one with amphibious cat attack – first time for everything) and settler.

Prioritized gold production in cities.

IBT: Saladin learns Alphabet – glad he wasn’t researching Feudalism; barb axe near PERS stays put, leaving hill still available; another twice-promoted archer is built in Damascus and fog archer moves towards Damascus as well (will force wounding 3CR sword to stop him)

665 (211):

Susa revealed to be on grass, 50% culture, defended by 2 cats, 1 spear, 1 single-promoted archer in city, with an identical one in position to move in next turn. (Too many units!)

Birka falls without losses, replenishing treasury.

There is now only a cat, spear, and archer in Gordium, because an axe and archer (presumably built during the IBT) have moved onto the forest NW of city. They are revealed by our worker, whom I will leave with 3 tile moves left this turn (letting JT see what the situation is and also considering leaving him there to attract the two Persian units further away from the city). I have backed off Cactus Breeze to further encourage venturesome behavior.

With all the new AI archers being built, I decided to go ahead and attack Medina before another one appeared there. Sacrificed cat and badly-wounded sword, but WE razed city without damage. I have left MP’s Floating Lab unmoved to allow team to decide whether to use it to transfer Medina survivors to Damascus or to sail south to chain with Cactus Breeze, leaving the tired and wounded to trek to either Susa or Damascus.


QUICK NOTES TO JT

Cactus Breeze could get some, or all, of the three units aboard to Damascus in 4 turns (3, chaining with MP’sFL).

There is a worker that will finish a road next turn under the cat and sword 2 tiles NNE of Ecbatana. Those two units and the nearby Xbow could reach Gordium in two turns, perhaps freeing Cactus Breeze’s units for other missions.

Can’t be absolutely certain that the galley underneath the trireme near Bagdad is empty -- though it has been sitting there for a long time – and I am therefore a bit reluctant to move the Xbow toward Kufah. The team can decide how likely it is to be needed and if that’s worth the little risk.

The axe and Xbow near Kufah have been marched from Bagdad so that we have the option of using them against either Kufah or Susa. If I had the mouse, I would move the then-healed sword in Mecca the next two turns toward Kufah, as I moved the Xbow and axe onto the forested hill SE of the city. I would then attack Kufah, with both available for mop-up duty but hoping that neither would be needed and could continue on toward Susa, without having been delayed in their journey.

 

[Frederiksberg]

Seems like we are progressing well . Looks like we can beat the CRC date and it's going to be a really exciting finish with OSS and Smurkz. I think we deserve a laurel but I'm not sure they have the same opinion on that matter . Tough luck for the team that get's to be 4th by only a copule of turns.

Haven't had time to check the save yet so I don't have any suggestions except some general words of wisdom I picked up on the net:

-If you had purchased $1000.00 of Nortel stock one year ago, it would now be worth $49.00.
-With Enron, you would have had $16.50 left of the original $1000.00.
-With WorldCom, you would have had less than $5.00 left.
-If you had purchased $1000 of Delta Air Lines stock you would have $49.00 left.

But, if you had purchased $1,000.00 worth of beer/wine 1 one year ago, drank all the beer/wine then turned in the cans/bottles to the aluminium recycling REFUND, you would have had $214.00.

Based on the above, the best current investment advice is to Drink heavily and recycle.

Are you all ready to become investors?

 

[leif erikson]

Nice work CP!!

We are making progress. Now to push to a finish.

Roster:
Jimmy Thunder - UP
Leif - On Deck
ShannonCT
Frederiksberg
Gator
rrau
Cactus Pete - just played!

Need to study the save some more. It seems we need more troops in the north. How to get them there?

Cactus Breeze could get some, or all, of the three units aboard to Damascus in 4 turns (3, chaining with MP’sFL).

Chaining with MP seems like a good idea, while the survivors of Medina heal.

We need to get Persepolis taken and razed.

Can’t be absolutely certain that the galley underneath the trireme near Bagdad is empty -- though it has been sitting there for a long time – and I am therefore a bit reluctant to move the Xbow toward Kufah. The team can decide how likely it is to be needed and if that’s worth the little risk.

This is the Galley that brought troops up during rrau's turn set, iirc. I went back and checked the saves from turns 203, 205, and 209 and they have been there all along. I believe that the Galley is empty.

EDIT - Can we get the Medina Workers up to Mecca and chop in time? They can be chopping in two turns with two workers per forest.

 

[ShannonCT]

Bring us home JT!

The Baghdad Xbow should be free to help with Kufah. There's always some chance that a unit could come up the road from the south and retake it. We could keep one galleonload in reserve half-way between Baghdad and Nidaros, so that it could amphibious assault Baghdad to retake the city or assault Nidaros if mop up duty is required there.

Otherwise, I think it's feasible to take Kufah, Susa, and Damascus in 5 turns even without reinforcements from Cactus Breeze.

1) Kufah can be hit with 2 cats (1 being built in Mecca), 1 CR3 sword, and 2 Xbows. After the cats bombard Kufah to 0%, they suicide, reducing the archers to 1.8 and 1.5 strength on average. Assuming a conservative estimate that the archers have strength 2.1 and 1.8, the sword attacks the 2.1-strength 3-promo archer with an 88% chance of winning. Then an Xbow attacks the 1.5-strength 2-promo with a 79% chance of winning. Then we have another Xbow to follow up. The chance that both sword and first Xbow lose is 6%.

2) Damascus can be hit by two fully healed WEs, 1 cat, and 3 CR3 swords of varying health. Suiciding cat is 17% to win and will reduce the lead archer to 1.7 strength on average. WEs are 94%+ to win against the 2 archers collaterally damaged by cat. CR3 sword is 99% to win against a 1.7 strength archer. Even against a conservative estimate of a 2.5-strength archer (rather than 1.7), the CR3 sword is 96% to win. Weakened swords are 99%+ to win against chariots. We'd have to get some bad luck to not take Damascus on the first turn of attack, and taking it after one more turn of attack would be assured unless it builds several more archers.

3) Susa can be taken by the Xbow, cat, and axe approaching from Baghdad, and the WE, axe, and 2 cats from Parsargadae. Survivors of Persepolis can follow behind as insurance. I haven't worked out the percentages here but with three cats suiciding against Susa and with Susa not being on a hill, I think we should be in good shape here.

With 6 units available to take Gordium, and more units than I can count ready to take Nidaros and Upsalla, I think we have everything well in hand.

BTW-Parsargadae is starving. Whip an archer there now (or a sword after Pers is taken) and then shuffle the queue so that the cat comes out first.

 

[DJMGator13]

BTW-Parsargadae is starving. Whip an archer there now (or a sword after Pers is taken) and then shuffle the queue so that the cat comes out first.

No iron, so must whip archer.

Idea:
We have a 45 hammer overflow in London, if we switch to a settler build it for one more turn we can complete it for 2 pop. This would allow us to build a city on the eastern end of the Pers. Lake allowing us to sail our survivors from the Viking attack to the Susa Road in 3 turns vrs the over 8 turn land route. Also new units could sail directly to this area.

 

[ShannonCT]

No iron, so must whip archer.

Right. Somehow I was thinking that we could knock out Persepolis this turn, but it's actually next turn.

Idea:
We have a 45 hammer overflow in London, if we switch to a settler build it for one more turn we can complete it for 2 pop. This would allow us to build a city on the eastern end of the Pers. Lake allowing us to sail our survivors from the Viking attack to the Susa Road in 3 turns vrs the over 8 turn land route. Also new units could sail directly to this area.

Susa isn't that strong. If we can't take it with the 7 units I mentioned in my previous post, survivors from Persepolis/Damascus/Kufah/Gordium should be plenty.

 

[leif erikson]

When should we cease production of units?

Perhaps we should grow some population in farther away cities and focus that population on commerce? If the units can't reach a war theater in time to be useful, why pay maintenance on them?

Are we considering a change to Police State, and/or Caste System? What timing should we use for that? Once the cities on the enemy continent are tapped out and useless for pop-rushing or forest chopping?