SGOTM 07 - Fifth Element

[dutchfire]

- complete library, as quick as possible, while working the tiles that give us the highest possible commerce (but the main goal is the library, i think Balth plan),

Just to re-iterate: Highest production is most important, right?

 

[Sweetacshon]

I meant to mention that... we are connected to her for resource trades, but not for the money trade route. Unfortunately we need sailing for that, or a connected road. Anyway, I'll look for a happy trade. Will play tomorrow.

 

[BLubmuz]

@ WT
I know the 10 turns thing, and probably they are gone.
Why worried about OB with Fred? 'cause he's in bad relation with anyone but Izzy.
If our scouting warrior is already goin' East, ok let's go East, but we can anyway negotiate an OB with Alex: he's completely neutral, and this can help.
I still remember a game where my best ally was Monty (until i destroyed him).

I don't think Lizzy can give us an happy resource soon, but i agree it's worth to watch this.

@ Sweeta
Strange, if she's connected we should have a trade route

 

[greatbeyond]

From the amount of land we have explored already, it is beginning to look like this map will be one of those with one Large Continent and either 1 or 2 much smaller continents. This occurred about 20% of the time in map creation. See my post #108 for details.

What this means is we may be able to meet as many as 10 - 12 Civs on this continent.

Stop when we get Alpha, let's see what we can get in Trades and work a strategy up.

What about building a Scout right after the Library is finished? With all the open borders we have we could do a tremendous amount of exploration.

 

[WastinTime]

Hmm. I don't think I've ever built a scout. Biggest drawback is that he can't go home and make people happy. Since it's Tiny, we should have everything mapped soon.

 

[BLubmuz]

Just to re-iterate: Highest production is most important, right?

Yes.
And i agree with WT: no worth to build a scout.
But the land should be as Balth said, and probably we'll meet one or two more civs.

 

[Merum]

I agree that building a scout now is probably wasted hammers.

I also think closing the borders with Fred is a good idea. We may not mind it so much, and even benefit to a certain extent, if somebody asks us to stop trading with Fred, but if Fred comes asking us to stop trading with one of his enemies, we may not fare as well, especially if it's George, who is right on our doorstep.

 

[WastinTime]

Does anyone know what the threshold is that makes them ask to cancel deals? I play a lot of games with just the "friendly ai". They are usually different religions, but I OB with all and not one ever asks to cancel deals or gives a -1 for traded with worst enemy. So just because there is one Civ that they like less than any other, doesn't make that their worst enemy, it's just their worst friend. I'd guess they need around -4 before they'd consider someone an enemy. In other words, Fred won't ask us to cancel Wash deals. They are both in the "friendly AI" group. Fred could ask to cancel with Capac, so if you want to close borders w/Fred, I can see that. However, I'd rather look long term. Fred will eventually vote for us (if we don't do something silly, like cancel deals with him.) Capac, probably not.

So I guess my advice is: Keeping OB with all of the "friendly AI". Deny all requests to cancel deals. Try to keep the crazy AI happy with tech, but kill them off if they get out of control. Then the friendly ones get more space.

 

[MacBalt]

You mentioned resource trades in the 2nd turnset. Sweeta, you need to look for those now--every turn. Liz is already connected and could have something for our crab any time.

I wonder if it might be better not to trade the crab right away. I'd almost rather have Washington "demand" it from us and get the +1 relations (& 10 years of assured peacefulness) from him for "giving him tribute." We won't be able to use the +1 happy from a good trade until turn 45 or 46 anyway. Even if the demand comes from Liz or Asoka we would benefit because they might be potential PA partners or UN votes in our column. Having the extra crab on hand might also be valuable if the first demand comes from one of the crazies and happens before we get alphabet, because then we would have something to give them and could avoid a relations hit and/or maybe even getting "marked" for a DOW.

Does anyone know what the threshold is that makes them ask to cancel deals? I play a lot of games with just the "friendly ai". They are usually different religions, but I OB with all and not one ever asks to cancel deals or gives a -1 for traded with worst enemy. So just because there is one Civ that they like less than any other, doesn't make that their worst enemy, it's just their worst friend. I'd guess they need around -4 before they'd consider someone an enemy. In other words, Fred won't ask us to cancel Wash deals. They are both in the "friendly AI" group. Fred could ask to cancel with Capac, so if you want to close borders w/Fred, I can see that. However, I'd rather look long term. Fred will eventually vote for us (if we don't do something silly, like cancel deals with him.) Capac, probably not.

So I guess my advice is: Keeping OB with all of the "friendly AI". Deny all requests to cancel deals. Try to keep the crazy AI happy with tech, but kill them off if they get out of control. Then the friendly ones get more space.

I agree with this analysis, but I think it only will be able to work right after we get alphabet and have extra techs laying around to pacify the hotheads. Before alpha we are so weak that I'm afraid refusing any "hothead" AI demand will lead to a DOW. In the test game Khan DOWed me again and again -- even at +2 relations and higher, and even when I was trading resources with him (and techs for that matter), ESPECIALLY IF I tried to keep an open borders agreement with him. Even Peter and HC had fun doing that to me sometimes. I don't trust the glance screen when it comes to AIs like Khan, Alex, HC, Izzy, Monty, Napoleon, Peter, etc. Before we have alphabet I think it would be best to give in to any demand we can (NOT religion or others that could have devastating long-term consequences), but if we can make it possible for them (whoever it is) to only demand the crab, then why not? As I see it, we only need to take this approach until about turn 50, then we can use the strategy you've given above because we won't be so weak we look like pushovers anymore. Right now we are so weak that I fear the hotheads will see any refusal as an excuse to wipe us out, simply because the opportunity costs appear to be so low. (But that equation will change dramatically after alphabet.)

 

[WastinTime]

Well, I agree somewhat with keeping crabs. Very good point about them demanding crabs. They won't demand something we only have 1 of.
However, if there is happy resource for trade we have to take it. If we get deer or something hooked up, I'd rather trade that than crabs for the reason above and because having an extra resource means the AI can initiate a trade. This is much more important when you're not checking the resource trade screen every turn. In SG games, we're more likely to check it often.

 

[BLubmuz]

Hey, don't be "BtS influenced": no trade guarantees 10 turns of peace in vanilla/warlords.

For the rest, perhaps WT analysis can be OK, but i remember some game at lower level, where i was the "world power" some usually friendly AIs ask to stop trading with Hannibal or Mehmed, with no apparent reason.

Anyway i don't have too much experience in this kind of diplo finesses, usually i ignore them, even if i'm planning a war with the object ot their demands... but this happens at lower levels (noble/prince).

Looking at the power graph i guess that the most part of the teams went for some military tech, no way their power grew like that.
And probably US traded for a lot of military techs from turn 60, i think it's the only way to explain that vertical growth in power.
Let's wait and see how our growth will be after turn 47 or so.

Anyway looking at the impressive row of WT's diplo victories at deity, i guess we must follow his advices (in the end this is the main reason i invited him to join).
Just a question, WT: how many of your attempts (if any) were ruined by an early war?

 

[culdeus]

Since when does no trade = 10 turns of peas? I've never seen this anywhere. Not that I don't believe it, but it would be good to know.

 

[culdeus]

Looking at the power graph i guess that the most part of the teams went for some military tech, no way their power grew like that.

Actually I think the graph being linear means that they built all warriors. If they built archers it would be more vertical.

 

[BLubmuz]

Since when does no trade = 10 turns of peas? I've never seen this anywhere. Not that I don't believe it, but it would be good to know.

Since BtS (and only in BtS), and it ruined one of my first games, too: usually i ask for money before to declare, and i did this, with lots of troops eager of blood, so i discovered you got 10 turns of peace after a unilateral trade, exactly as you sign a peace treaty after a war.

The other important change in BtS is that a GA gives you the freedom to change civic or change religion without anarchy, and that it doubles the GP generation (i missed this too, in my early games).

 

[MacBalt]

Well, I agree somewhat with keeping crabs. Very good point about them demanding crabs. They won't demand something we only have 1 of.
However, if there is happy resource for trade we have to take it. If we get deer or something hooked up, I'd rather trade that than crabs for the reason above and because having an extra resource means the AI can initiate a trade. This is much more important when you're not checking the resource trade screen every turn. In SG games, we're more likely to check it often.

Yeah, I agree. Trade the deer or the sheep before the crab if at all possible.

OK, so i refresh the goals for Sweeta's TS:
- go in the F4 and cancel OB with Fred!
...
- you can also sign an OB with Alex, just to scout his land: this can also bring us to discover new Civs West, and since we got only a scouting unit we must choose a direction, and west looks good like East, but it gives us knowlegde of Alex's land.

Don't forget about canceling the OB with HC once the ten turns are up. In fact, I think we ought to consider canceling as many OB agreements as possible until we've done our alphabet trades. My main reason for suggesting this is so that we can avoid both (A) having to say "no" to any political demand from an aggressive/crazy AI before turn 50 or so, and/or (B) having to take the relationship hit with a potential future partner that comes from giving in to a political demand against them coming from a crazy AI. Hopefully, the first demand will only be for something like the crabs anyway, but you never know. Do we really want to have to face the choice between, say, giving in to HC's demand to stop trading with Asoka or not giving in and risking a DOW, when for no relationship penalties we can temporarily cancel the OB with Asoka until after turn 50 and not have to face the possibility of a getting a demand against him at all?

What we start after Alpha? Literature wants Poly, and it comes in the 2nd round, if we're lucky.

I agree that Poly is the right choice for our next tech, but even if we prioritize getting Mysticism on the first round I think we'll still end up with one turn after Alpha in which we won't be able to research Poly or trade for it. (There is a good chance it won't even be available for trade the next turn -- especially if we can't find Mansa. ) Unless we find some way around that "dead time" I think WastinTime's strategy of setting research to 0% for one turn in order to generate some gold would be a good plan.

Also, i propose to shorten our TSs, say 7-9 turns: we're on normal speed, and after Alpha a lot of things can happen in a TS.
I plan to play my TS (i've not seen negative comments, so i'm up after Sweeta) in 2 rounds, just to inform you about the trades and resources (hopefully we can obtain BW, but not for writing only, i think i must wait the 2nd round to add something to it).

In the test games, I was able to get BW in the first round a few times from HC by trading him both writing and Animal Husbandry. Given the Alpha date we expect, I think there is a reasonable chance this could happen again. (Once he even traded both Mysticism and BW for Writing & AH.)

Any comments, corrections, am i forgetting something?

Your plan sounds good to me Blubmuz. One thing I would suggest after thinking about the last few posts is whether it might be good to have a plan ready for dealing with political demands -- particularly those coming from the aggressive AIs. Unfortunately, I didn't begin noting the date of the "first demands" until my last few test games, but they almost always started at about turn 50. In fact, the earliest one I actually noted came on turn 50, but I think one might have come a few turns earlier in a few of the other games I played. That may be trying to do too much though. What do you think?

Trash Team seems to have had 3 cpt between turn 30 and 40. A very early library?

The palace gives +2 culture, so I don't think it could have been a library. Maybe they had an early religion spread to them or they decided to build an obelisk for some reason? (The latter part of those two culture curves sure look a lot like very early Pyramids though...)

If our scouting warrior is already goin' East, ok let's go East, but we can anyway negotiate an OB with Alex: he's completely neutral, and this can help.
I still remember a game where my best ally was Monty (until i destroyed him).

I still don't trust Alex at all. If there is no reason to OB with him then let's at least let it wait a while. I don't think we can explore East without going all the way around Tokugawa to the North and through Asoka's lands. Why do that when there is a chance we could still find Mansa hiding somewhere in that fog to the Southwest of our warrior's current position?

From the amount of land we have explored already, it is beginning to look like this map will be one of those with one Large Continent and either 1 or 2 much smaller continents. This occurred about 20% of the time in map creation. See my post #108 for details.

What this means is we may be able to meet as many as 10 - 12 Civs on this continent.

Yes, I think this is a good call. It is possible Mansa could still be within reach somewhere nearby...

We're already heading east, so we should explore fred and farther east, and then north from there. Alex is most likely on the coast and there won't be anyone to find over there (maybe). This is Tiny Continents -- there has to be an ocean somewhere, so looking at our land and Liz, we seem to be on the upper-west side.

Did you mean West? It looks to me like Fred's lands are pointing us West into the fog. Isn't that Tokugawa's red leaking out under the fog to the East?


EDIT: Wow, spent too much time on that post -- cross-posted with BLub, culd, culd, & BLub!

 

[MacBalt]

Since when does no trade = 10 turns of peas? I've never seen this anywhere. Not that I don't believe it, but it would be good to know.

Since BtS (and only in BtS), and it ruined one of my first games, too: usually i ask for money before to declare, and i did this, with lots of troops eager of blood, so i discovered you got 10 turns of peace after a unilateral trade, exactly as you sign a peace treaty after a war.

Oops! I stand corrected... another victim of too much BTS! Sorry guys. Just out of curiosity though, have any of you ever experienced an AI attack following within ten turns of giving in to one of their demands for tribute? I don't think this has happened to me before, but can't say I've had a lot of experience giving in to demands for tribute because of my usually playing at much lower levels of difficulty.

 

[MacBalt]

Anyway looking at the impressive row of WT's diplo victories at deity, i guess we must follow his advices (in the end this is the main reason i invited him to join).

Just to be clear, I think it is best to give WT the final say on these issues too, unless maybe everyone else on the team disagrees with him about something. My experience is pretty much limited to the test games, and that doesn't amount to much of anything compared to his experience at this level. It is fun to try to contribute though, as I have very much enjoyed the opportunity to learn from his experience -- even when (maybe especially when) he shows me how wrong I am about some things!

 

[WastinTime]

First off, if you've played a half dozen test games, your experience might be as good as mine. 90% of my games were with friendly AI only, so my intuition could get us into a lot of trouble. Because of this, I'm going to play thru a full test game. Do we have a test game that has the same AI that we have revealed so far in the real game?

To answer an earlier question : My attempts have almost never been stopped by a DOW (with my friendly ai picks). If I ever did get an early DOW it was because I tried to cram too many AI on a small map. So I'm definitely more worried than ever that this map will cause an attack from anyone.

I like how this group thinks. Let's just keep the ball rolling. Speaking of that. When does this end?

 

[MacBalt]

I think Sweetaschon said he was going to play tonight. From what I've seen, the debate ends about when whoever is "up" decides to damn the torpedoes and just play the game. I like that usually this team seems to settle on at least some kind of rough consensus before moving forward too quickly though. (It is going to get especially tricky for whoever is up these next few turnsets too, because they are likely to be among the most dangerous ones we'll face, I think.)

The test game I played the most is here, but it does not have all the same AI that we've revealed so far and the goody huts have not been removed, so the AI sometimes get some surprising tech jumps. Another version of the testgame I played a lot (with more of the starting position revealed and with the goody huts removed) is here.

Greatbeyond is better at creating testgames than I am, but if he doesn't offer and if I can find time tonight I'll go into WB and switch the AI around so they will match the ones we've discovered so far.

EDIT: Actually, earlier on this page Sweetaschon said he was going to play tomorrow, not tonight.

 

[greatbeyond]

First off, if you've played a half dozen test games, your experience might be as good as mine. 90% of my games were with friendly AI only, so my intuition could get us into a lot of trouble. Because of this, I'm going to play thru a full test game. Do we have a test game that has the same AI that we have revealed so far in the real game?

You make a very good point, I have play tested this scenario 14 times and have been able to stay peaceful in only 2. When you get to pick your Civs it makes a big difference.

I have a test game brought up to the end of My TS, but won't get to upload until probably Sunday night. As more of the map and AIs are revealed I edit the Map and Civs to reflect what we know.

We need to have the Trade and Diplo tactics set. IIRC, I had demands to give Alpha in tribute during the IBT that I learned it. I have also found (so it seems) that it is better to not outright refuse a trade, but to negotiate and then say no. Perhaps it was just me but it seemed to keep the other AIs happier.

I am out of town for the day, in about 5 hours.