SGOTM 07 - Fifth Element

BLubmuz · May 23, 2008

Merum said:
I'm in favor of a blend of 1 and 2.
Edit: For now, I think we need to kick GW's ass.

The last row is a vote for 2, not a blend. Be more clear, or specific.
Dutch was clear.
IMO Wash ass is NY.

Astro is the Lib target 'cause we can't hope to pop a better tech.
Of course to contact the other civs optics is enough, but we need it for astro and we lack 3 prerequisites:
compass
MC/machinery

the observatory is great benefit and don't forget that if we win the race we'll have a big advantage over the AIs: we won, not them.

In case we do not reach optics we can try to hold Lib at 1 turn and research something else.
But it's soon to debate this.

WastinTime · May 23, 2008

I'm going to be out for the long weekend (back monday maybe). I hope you guys don't get past Education by then. I don't want to talk about Liberalism until then.

Obviously I vote #1. You are getting far too emotional over this "kick George's ass". We are not going to "teach the AI a lesson". Taking a city does not make them fear us. And if you want to talk about "a big fat nothing". That what we will get by wasting a half dozen units destroying NY. We'll need at least 20 units to even do it because we need to leave 5 home for happy/defense. Staying in war longer (especially longer than Izzy) just invites more trouble. We need to get back on track.

There are many diplomatic reasons for the Izzy situation. I wasn't even going to mention possible PA partner. So add....
4) She could bring her buddhist friends to war with Wash.
5) Wash could bring is friends against Izzy (better her than us.)
6) Does anyone here trust Izzy?, of course not, she will attack someone eventually, now it will most likely be George.
7) If she did want us, she'd have trouble getting thru George's land now.
8) There is a chance we could get a dogpile on Washington. That's the best way to see NY fall and get tons of "shared military struggle" bonuses with everyone.
9) Washington may have to keep a few more units home with the threat of Izzy from the south.
10) Washington could divert a stack toward Izzy. I've stopped the flow of units to my land all the time with this tactic.
11) We didn't declare war, Izzy did. That means she got all the -1 "you declared war on our friend George"
12) The AI hates to be in 2 wars. It will be easier/cheaper to get peace from Wash. Izzy can't get peace before we can.
13) Izzy will ask people to stop trading w/George, they probably won't stop, but they'll get a -1 from her. 13b) Same for George.

I could go on...
With good diplomacy I was able to do a UN race and a space launch on our test map without getting attacked. So these little things add up. Some are trivial, some are huge benefits like #12. And if something like #5 or #8 happened. You'd change your story. On the flip side, we haven't added any danger to our situation. This MA was the best move we've made the entire game, hardly random. If Alex would happen to make peace w/Capac, he'd be easy to drag in too...not that we should.

Whomever we choose for PA, it has nothing to do with their religion. Free Religion will be all over by then. Also getting OB now has no relevance to PA selection way down the road. There is plenty of time to get the +2 from OB.

gtg for the weekend soon, don't get killed!

culdeus · May 23, 2008

I don't see the big harm in getting izzy in even at the cost. If she's to be groomed for a PA she needs to be caught up in the key techs as the AI for Izzy seems to take a meandering tech path ill suited for the early game. I would have preffered to get KK in the MA, but so it goes.

I'm against any attack on NYNY. It will be expensive both from a production standpoint and the fact that we'll not be able to run 100% science with the unit costing us dearly. Washington is cooked and will be getting pressure from all sides soon enough. I agree that taking nyny alone will not cripple him in any meaningful way and will really only serve to get us the fur long term. He's got no metals so the worst case is he comes over with some rifles on down the line.

greatbeyond · May 23, 2008

This seems to be the norm for the games I play. Lots of complications and no easy choices. I have yet to find a military strategy that works against a Deity AI in the first half of the game.

We don't really stand much of a chance going on the offensive. As WT notes, if Washington keeps just 7 LBs in NY we would need at least 10 Cats and 10 Axes as our attacking force while keeping a substantial defensive force in our Capitol. How did I figure the # of Cats? I just guessed using experience that show a cat damaging anywheres from 2 to 5 members of a stack and that # decreases for each successive Cat attacking. Each cat may do anywheres from 10% - 20% damage. If anyone has better figures, then we'll use them.

This emphasis on excess military detracts from our goal. That being said we have to have a strong defensive force that deters anyone from attacking. Right now, a few more units should secure our safety against Washington's stack of LBs, if he doesn't get Construction and starts building Cats. We need to build some more Archers as they can be done in 1T and have a defensive advantage over Cats. I 'm guessing another 4 Archers should suffice at which time we either go for Walls to increase their defensive bonus by 50% (1.5 pts-Archers, 2.5 pts-Axes) or we build 4 to 6 cats so if Washington does attack with a stack, we can decrease their strength. The best we hope for is that we get Feudalism and upgrade our Archers to LBs.

If we do decide to attack Washington, it only makes sense to do so, after he spends the majority of his forces against our defenders. We will also need to get some better offensive units such as Macemen. Axes against LBs requires lots of cats to cut the LB strength in half. It appears his LBs in NY would have a defensive strength of:
base - 6
City defense - 3
fortify - 1.5
CG1 - 1.5

min defense will be 12
if he has walls add another 3pts for a total of 15

Finally the deals that are done are done, and we will have to develop strategies for the future. Right now we want our war with Washington to be over quickly. He can continue to fight Isabella forever, for all I care. If we press our culture advantage, eventually NY will be assimilated and autorazed.

I will play another turn shortly and let everyone know the results.

Merum · May 23, 2008

I'm not emotional about warring with GW, it's just the way I talk. I also don't have any illusions about teaching the AI a lesson, I know it doesn't work that way. For me the obvious benefit to building military is lessening the risk of future attacks, and razing NY is a means for us to expand our territory and cash in on some gold at the same time.

I really think you underestimate the power of cats, and I don't believe 20 units would be required to take NY, although it would take probably 7-10 cats to grind down the LBs there.

The other obvious bonuses of a strong military are that we don't need to worry so much about having our resources pillaged (and our cottage is next folks) and we can take the offensive in the case that somebody does try to war with us. Also, if we get a unit of 10xp, we can build the HE if we choose to do so.

You raise some valid points in 4 through 13 that provide some benefit to the current MA. I still don't know if I would have made that choice, but you've at least presented a defensible argument for doing so.

To be clear, I favor building military, and I favor offensive warfare over defensive warfare. I'd much rather fight wars in somebody else's territory and not ours. I favor a buildup to an attack on NY, and a relatively even split between military and domestic builds in our city after that.

MacBalt · May 23, 2008

BLubmuz said:
2 more archers are mandatory, then cats if we decide to follow my proposal.
The Academy Wash is popping in NY will not help our control over the furs, precious for our research.

I like the two more archers and then start cats idea, but I think we ought to pause then and reassess. That should be about time for the player change too, shouldn't it? Also, I think you might be worrying a little too much about the furs. An academy is only +4 more culture in the tile. I'll have to look again to get the count right, but unless New York's borders have popped another time since our last check, it will still only put George at about +27cpt to our +21cpt in the tile (and in the city itself too, I might add) [edit: actually this can't be right. His culture output is the same in the city, but ours is 20 points lower. Got to reconsider this...]. That means he'll only be gaining 6cpt on us. Even at only 52%, it is going to take him a long time to flip the tile. I expect we'll have more culture buildings by then (NE, Oxford?), and even if we don't, something we've built is bound to double its culture output by then anyway.

BLubmuz said:
So vote please:
1) peaceful strategy, passing the game to hoping and fear
2) aggressive strategy, so the AIs learn the lesson

If I have to vote with these choices then I vote #1, but I still think it would be smarter to build our 2 archers, begin building 1 or 2 cats, and then reassess.

I'm going to be away for the long weekend too. I might be able to check in once or twice, but my connectivity is going to be iffy starting tomorrow morning. How many turns do you have left in your turnset GB?

EDIT: cross-post with GB & Merum

WastinTime · May 23, 2008

Not much time to discuss this, but if offensive warfare is desired by the group, then we should look ahead to cavalry. When I do war, I like to crush them quickly without losing many units. I don't go for disposable units and cats are too slow for cavalry. Let's get Edu, Univ. and Oxford and then see what it looks like.

BLubmuz · May 23, 2008

The "lesson" thing was just to emphasize my thought, i know it's meaningless in CIV.
But WT has some good points: with 6-8 LB stationed in NY, we need too many units to take it. Perhaps we can consider with maces, but now it's soon for this.
Cavalry? without any (visible, at least) source of horses in the whole continent? Not so easy.
Anyway, for now i think there's no need to continue play 1 turn and then discuss.

So, if the team agrees on this go ahead GB, try to keep the stronghold (?) and finish your TS.
After you Merum is UP.

What is this long weekend?

culdeus · May 23, 2008

Merum said:
babyarm

greatbeyond · May 23, 2008

1 more turn down, 1 more to go for my TS. 1 LB attacked and was defeated by our Axe. (Perhaps we should be making more Axes?) Probability of victory according to the log was 93%.
1LB has moved to the PH 1W, 1LB to our Cottage 1E, 6LBs to the Marble 1SE.
It appears he will attack before he gets enough units to guarantee success. Let's hope the RNG does not turn on us. 2LBs have pillaged our cows.

IBT HC asked for open borders. I went back over the last 5 pages and couldn't find any guidance about what we wanted to do, so I declined.
There still isn't anyone else who will sign a MA against Washington. Caesar tells us to watch out for our worst enemy, Washington.

Paper is in 1T. There aren't any new techs being offered for trade at this point. Washington has picked up HBR.

Questions:

#1 - What do we build? Another Archer (1T), Cat or Axe (2T)
#2 - Trades or OB?
#3 Research, what next?

I will finish my TS tonight unless advised otherwise.

BLubmuz · May 23, 2008

Build an archer, it takes 1 T
Then a couple cats.

MacBalt · May 23, 2008

greatbeyond said:
Questions:

#1 - What do we build? Another Archer (1T), Cat or Axe (2T)
#2 - Trades or OB?
#3 Research, what next?

My 2 cents:
#1) Agree with BLub -- another Archer, then cats (or axe?)
#2) No more trades for now, no OB.
#3) Research Education

Sweetacshon · May 23, 2008

greatbeyond said:
Questions:
#1 - What do we build? Another Archer (1T), Cat or Axe (2T)
#2 - Trades or OB?
#3 Research, what next?

1. Archer
2. Certainly just get some pics, and the next TS can deal with this. Paper usually trades well, not that I see us doing that until we get a good headstart towards lib.
3. Edu, for sure.

On the offencive/ defencive debate, we do have a small window of opportunity on Washington which requires the construction of 10+ cats, which means 20+ turns. As long as we stay the course on Oxford and lib, that's ok with me. However, wouldn't this cat construction conflict with the building of uni/oxford, and probably soon after, theatre/GT? We can probably hedge our bets and build cats during the edu research and just see what happens. If by some miracle Izzy commits some troops and distracts Wash, we'll have something to throw at NY, which would be great, as we all agree.

As for Izzy as a PA, she's just a bit unpredictable, so let's keep our thoughts on Asoka and Liz as well as Izzy. Always check the glance screen for worst enemy implications on every trade. For me it is still too early to decide.

@Merum: Thanks, mate, I'll forward the saves when the time arrives.

Merum · May 23, 2008

BLubmuz said:
What is this long weekend?

Monday is Memorial Day in the US.

I'll be working, since they don't have memorial day in Japan. Shove it in the vacation bank for me.

greatbeyond · May 23, 2008

Good news first. We have Paper and are starting on Education. IBT HC asked for Lit which I gave him. It has paid off for us in that he will trade us MC and World Map for CS. Julius and Asoka both have Feudalism but neither will trade us. Washington will not speak to us yet.

We killed 3 LBs vs our Axes (6.1% odds), and lost 1 Archer to a LB (25% odds), perhaps we should be building Axes. Washington has moved his 2 LBs 2S of Beijing and his stack of 5 LBs (one half strength) is still on the Marble 1SE.

I have attached screen shots and Log.

The log is in parts as I was completing GOTM 30, and I can't seem to find the first parts.

Spoiler :

The Save: http://gotm.civfanatics.net/saves/civ4sgotm7/Fifth_Element_SG007_BC0525_01.Civ4SavedGame

The turn log :

Spoiler :

MacBalt · May 24, 2008

Wow, we have gotten lucky. I guess that LB must have attacked Beijing instead of plundering our cottage? :thumbsup:

Way to go GB! Maybe loading up on catapults now wouldn't be such a bad idea after all.

I think getting Metal Casting would be a good idea too. I don't like passing around CS like we've been doing, but HC will probably just demand it from us in a few turns anyway. With luck, George may give us feudalism himself when he comes crawling back to us begging for peace.

Question: When is the best time to burn our Great Scientist on Education? Should it happen early or late in the research process, or does it even matter?

EDIT: I'm away and can't load the save. Can anyone tell me if the % ownership has changed on the fur, or the two tiles East and South of the fur, for that matter? Did that Academy actually get built in New York? With 3 Beijing border expansions the fur tile (2 tiles distance) should be getting 2x20=40+21 Chinese culture per turn, compared to New York's 2 border expansions (1 tile distance) 2x20=40+8 American culture per turn (8 = 2 from Library, 1 from Obelisk, 4 from Academy, 1 from Religion). Our 40+21=61 is still +13 Chinese Culture per turn over America's 48 cpt. Unless they've had another border pop, we should still be gaining on them in that tile AND in the two tiles 1E & 1S AND in the City tile itself. [EDIT: Oops, same mistake as before, the other tiles are all one additional tile distant, so our cpt is -20 compared to the fur tile & we're not "gaining" -- but not trailing by much either.] Even if they had another border pop, we would only be trailing 61 to 68, or -7cpt, which will take a long time to add up enough to flip the tile back. In fact, that just ain't going to happen unless we get conquered, because Oxford and the Globe Theater are coming up soon now (not to mention the National Epic, if we ever get back to it).

BLubmuz · May 24, 2008

OK, stronghold kept!
Don't leave the units without promotion!
Give C1 to the axes and G1 to the archers.
Cats will have D1, or wait for a promo.
The GS gives us an amount of beakers proportional to our science production, i guess that the turn before pop you must go in max science working the best commerce tiles and using the max number of scientists you can. Then pop and go back to wartime production.

I'm curious too about the academy in NY.
Also, how many units are defending NY now?

Merum, if you missed it, you're UP!
try to kick some ass.

MC for CS? a poor trade, but we must take it, IMO.

culdeus · May 24, 2008

BLubmuz said:
The GS gives us an amount of beakers proportional to our science production, i guess that the turn before pop you must go in max science working the best commerce tiles and using the max number of scientists you can.

Are you sure about this? I thought this was changed in one of the updates.

In any situation I don't like the cat SoD idea at all. Washington will give up on this war shortly and we need to be in rebuilding mode with workers and the University needing what? 8-10 turns as well?

dutchfire · May 25, 2008

The GS gives us an amount of beakers proportional to our science production, i guess that the turn before pop you must go in max science working the best commerce tiles and using the max number of scientists you can.

I'm fairly sure the # of beakers from a Great Person is only related to the current population in your empire.

http://forums.civfanatics.com/showthread.php?t=221808

Great Scientist: 1500 + 3*CivPopulation

(of course there are some map size/game speed multipliers, but the fact remains that the only factor we can influence is CivPopulation.

I don't think we should be building an offensive army. Just defend and make peace 10 turns after he declared.

BLubmuz · May 25, 2008

So, it depends on populaton, not science.
If we're growing in the next few turns (4-5) we can delay until growth, otherwise, let's pop immediately and we save maintenance costs.

Offensive only if Wash let NY lightly defended, but we have to consider this.

SGOTM 07 - Fifth Element

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