SGOTM 07 - Murky Waters

[LowtherCastle]

The most attractive cities for GW are Bombay and York because he has a lot of plot culture in them and they are so near. Murky and Delhi will not be target city. But pillagers may come. These might attack Delhi then.
From Washington DC it's unlikely that any troops can pass by Bombay on the way to Delhi.

Good info. Now, rather than me blundering through it, is there any chance NY pillagers attack our cannons/grens in the forest or on the hill, or will they sidestep them and go to the plains tiles to pillage? In other words, do we need more than 1 unit on the furs, marble, and deer?

EDIT: I can't resist.
If we put our CIII gren on the furs, no time to fortify. W's CI musket feels his odds are 29-37% against our gren.

CI musket COUNTER (40 threshold): final threshold w/7 adjacent = 24. COUNTER musket attacks.
CI musker ATTACK or PILLAGE (65 threshold): final threshold = 39. No attack.

EDIT2: A COUNTER mace will also attack at 25-33% odds.
A COUNTER lbm will attack at 20-28% odds if the random is >=4.
A COUNTER cat will attack at 17-25% odds, if the random is >=7.
Can maces, lbms, and cats be COUNTER?

So if the mace or the musket go first, W might attack with all 5 units, right?

How'd I do, klarius?

 

[klarius]

Galleon --> Galleon would be for Nott, not for NY. NY will be taken by KK from S. Waiting for a KK unit to get to Nott while we pillage every S English tile would be painful, so I am considering building 3cannons, Galleon, then 6cannons. I don't want to leave Murky empty, so I will probably load some wounded unit halfway. Is that ok for you, klarius? Or would it be too late? I want 3 cannons in the furs. I fear less could die to Wash's initial assault.

If you build the galleon first you have 2 KK grens to help defend Murky in 4 turns. You don't have to unload them immediately. In addition you can fetch a wounded unit from the London region, which will otherwise not enter action anytime soon.
Why not leave Murky empty for the next few turns?
The interesting times come only after the DoW on GW.

 

[jesusin]

The galleon is for Nott. After CF Liz, we will want to take Nott later on and that's when we don't want KK to pillage English tiles. If KK is only at war with Wash, he will send something to NY once WashDC and London have fallen, won't he?

But this is all really confusing anyway. Right now we have 12 cannons and 12 grens. After London, how many of each will you have at York, Bombay, MurkyLand and Delhi? (including the London units going to York or teleporting to MurkyLand)

Changed my mind, if only 1 healthy Gren is teleported home then...

Home: 3 units plus all the new units (gall and 2 cann). cannon in furs, gren in marble, gren just teleported form S.

London: 3+2 units. They will go to America afterwards, except the most wounded who will join Grog in the Galleon.

Bombay: 4wounded units + 1 medic.

Delhi: 0 units

York: 11 units (2 healthy grens+ wounded from England+silver cannon+1 wounded gren of the pair+3 wounded around York+3 from Cuzco).




Wait a second, How many units do we need in the galleon? Isn't 1 enough?

 

[jesusin]

If you build the galleon first you have 2 KK grens to help defend Murky in 4 turns. You don't have to unload them immediately. In addition you can fetch a wounded unit from the London region, which will otherwise not enter action anytime soon.
Why not leave Murky empty for the next few turns?
The interesting times come only after the DoW on GW.

In 4 turns? T162 the galleon is built. T164 it enters KK waters. With luck, T165 the unit(s) are upgraded and the travel back starts. They get to Murky T168, 7 turns from now. That's 4 turns after the fun has begun with Wash. I am not leaving Murky undefended. It is the only city, appart from Antium, that I don't want to lose (shudder).

 

[klarius]

EDIT: I can't resist.
If we put our CIII gren on the furs, no time to fortify. W's CI musket feels his odds are 29-37% against our gren.

CI musket COUNTER (40 threshold): final threshold w/7 adjacent = 24. COUNTER musket attacks.
CI musker ATTACK or PILLAGE (65 threshold): final threshold = 39. No attack.

EDIT2: A COUNTER mace will also attack at 25-33% odds.
A COUNTER lbm will attack at 20-28% odds if the random is >=4.
A COUNTER cat will attack at 17-25% odds, if the random is >=7.
Can maces, lbms, and cats be COUNTER?

So if the mace or the musket go first, W might attack with all 5 units, right?

How'd I do, klarius?

The relevant threshold for attack is 45. Only pillaging the tile they are on would come before, not pillaging the next turn. Counter units are not the problem as they will be grouped to another unit who does the decision.

OTOH, we don't know how many units will be really there when the decision is taken (attack city might already be under way to Bombay). And city defense, city counter and city special don't count as adjacent potential attackers (which makes sense as they never attack).
A mace might be a city counter.

Edit:
In fact, I think, the mace has to be city counter. Other types would have been upgraded to gren.

 

[Erkon]

Why care if Washington pillages any of our tiles??? We can build Maces in five turns, and upgrade them to grens if we shut down our research.

 

[klarius]

Btw, guys, looking at the SG7 score graphs, because of OCC, I have a feeling that fastest finish might also get lowest score...without even doing the SG5 klarius expunge!

No chance for the wooden spoon. This time we will get an in game victory condition and by that a final score. That will most likely be highest for the earliest finishes.

 

[LowtherCastle]

Let's do the Gnejs thing and see if we can determine the UNIT_AI of W's units.

New York has:
Non-attackers
CI musket -- CITY_DEFENSE or PILLAGE (if ATTACK, COUNTER, or RESERVE it would be stacked to a cat)
mace -- CITY_COUNTER (not upgraded to gren)
lbm -- CITY_DEFENSE (upgraded from original archer)
lbm -- ? (also upgraded from original archer, but could be CITY_DEFENSE, CITY_COUNTER and CITY_SPECIAL, or what?)

Possible attackers
CRI cat -- CITY_ATTACK
BarrageI cat -- COLLATERAL
CRI cat -- CITY_ATTACK

Washington has:
CII musket -- CITY_DEFENSE or PILLAGE (if ATTACK, COUNTER, or RESERVE it would be stacked to a cat)
CI musket -- CITY_DEFENSE or PILLAGE (if ATTACK, COUNTER, or RESERVE it would be stacked to a cat)
CI musket -- CITY_DEFENSE or PILLAGE (if ATTACK, COUNTER, or RESERVE it would be stacked to a cat)
CI CGII lbm -- ?
CGII lbm -- CITY_DEFENSE
CGI lbm -- CITY_DEFENSE
lbm -- CITY_DEFENSE (upgraded from original archer)
lbm -- ? (upgraded from original archer)
lbm -- ? (upgraded from original archer)
CGI lbm -- ? (stacked to above lbm?)
CGI lbm -- ? (stacked?)
barrageIII cat -- COLLATERAL
CRI cat -- CITY_ATTACK
settler (why is nothing stacked to this?)

I don't see any attacking units other than the cats. klarius? EDIT: Yeah, I know, the order they are listed doesn't tell us anything about their stacking, right?

Does this explain why all those units just sat there during the Cuzco wars?

 

[LowtherCastle]

No chance for the wooden spoon. This time we will get an in game victory condition and by that a final score. That will most likely be highest for the earliest finishes.

Thank goodness.

 

[klarius]

In 4 turns? T162 the galleon is built. T164 it enters KK waters. With luck, T165 the unit(s) are upgraded and the travel back starts. They get to Murky T168, 7 turns from now. That's 4 turns after the fun has begun with Wash. I am not leaving Murky undefended. It is the only city, appart from Antium, that I don't want to lose (shudder).

The galleon is in London T163 (assuming it's taken by KK ) and the units are gifted. In the IBT KK will upgrade them and the galleon leaves immediately for Murky.
T165 they are back in Murky. And BTW, it would not be necessary to wait for upgrade, it just fits nice with the distance to London. The units can be upgraded loaded on the ship in Murky.

 

[Erkon]

Pre-Play-Plan T161-171 v1.0

OVERVIEW - looks good, perhaps DoW JC if it looks suitable?

BUILD QUEUE - start with Galleon this turn, then cannons, and then maces if we don't have the production (if we want to grow a pop for example).

UNIT MOVES - please kill the LBMs!!! Else they will return to London

Please take a look at Moscow to get an idea if it will fall soon.

Please don't move the Hamburg units until they are healed to keep options open.

 

[LowtherCastle]

The galleon is for Nott. After CF Liz, we will want to take Nott later on and that's when we don't want KK to pillage English tiles. If KK is only at war with Wash, he will send something to NY once WashDC and London have fallen, won't he?

My prayers are with you, Mr, Die-Hard Optimist. KK's units will need 4t minimum to get to NY from anywhere except our galleon. So you DoW W on T164, you red-line and KK captures WashDC on T166, KK starts moving toward NY on T167, you red-line and KK captures on T170. Best-case scenario (but unlikely because of pillaging).

In 4 turns? T162 the galleon is built. T164 it enters KK waters. With luck, T165 the unit(s) are upgraded and the travel back starts. They get to Murky T168, 7 turns from now. That's 4 turns after the fun has begun with Wash. I am not leaving Murky undefended. It is the only city, appart from Antium, that I don't want to lose (shudder).

No.

With the galleon: Built T162, moves into London at first opportunity (T163 posssible, but more likely T164). KK upgrade units in IT (every time in testing, plus he can do it in our territory anyway, we just can't gift them in our territory), and back in Murky T166 (or T165). You red-line and KK captures NY on T166 (or T165). Best-case (and most likely) scenario. Then the galleon goes back for another KK unit, arrives back on T170 and you capture the other city. You don't even need to be lucky. You just build the galleon and red-line the cities.

I'm not even sure how the gifted KK units will work for Nottingham, because it's actually 2 turns away from Murky.

But I think there's one thing you're missing here, jesusin: Capturing London, Nottingham, and New York have always been nightmare scenarios because of the distance KK has to travel across pillageable land. We got lucky on London, because the assault galleons. Then klarius came up with this brilliant shortcut using the galleon. Please don't underestimate the distance from Delhi, Bombay, and WashDC to Nottingham and NY. It's huge. Believe me. The only other short-cut that we know of is using Gnejs' path method, but that requires huge amounts of pillagers.​

>>> crossposts are fun, to quote klarius <<<

 

[jesusin]

The galleon is in London T163 (assuming it's taken by KK ) and the units are gifted. In the IBT KK will upgrade them and the galleon leaves immediately for Murky.
T165 they are back in Murky. And BTW, it would not be necessary to wait for upgrade, it just fits nice with the distance to London. The units can be upgraded loaded on the ship in Murky.

You mean KK can upgrade them if they are in Murky...

And travelling only to London and gifting there...so you have faith in KK taking the city... and you don't believe LC's "they got down the ship I saw it with my own two eyes"?

Who should I believe, KK or LC? Hmmmm

 

[LowtherCastle]

jesusin, another thought for your PPP: How about suggesting to KK to attack Nottingham, starting this turn? You might get lucky and have a CITY_ATTACK unit there before you know it.

Target City is lower priority than attack city, so that shouldn[t affect any of the units next to London, right klarius?

 

[LowtherCastle]

You mean KK can upgrade them if they are in Murky...

And travelling only to London and gifting there...so you have faith in KK taking the city... and you don't believe LC's "they got down the ship I saw it with my own two eyes"?

Who should I believe, KK or LC? Hmmmm

NO NO NO NO NO.

You misunderstood. The point of that is that when the galleon gets to Murky, they will disembark and go whether you unload them or not. But you want to red-line New York that turn anyway, so you want to unload them anyway. If you have red-lined the city, you want them to go and don't forget to unload them!!!!!!!!!!!!!

If you haven't red-lined the city yet, don't put the galleon into Murky until you do, or walk the plank and don't blame it on klarius, because I warned you.

 

[jesusin]

With the galleon: Built T162, moves into London at first opportunity (T163 posssible, but more likely T164). KK upgrade units in IT (every time in testing, plus he can do it in our territory anyway, we just can't gift them in our territory), and back in Murky T166 (or T165).

Who's the optimist here? It was you how kept telling the units unloaded on their own. If I gift in London without unloading the units, don't you think they would go away based on your testing?

 

[LowtherCastle]

Home: 3 units plus all the new units (gall and 2 cann). cannon in furs, gren in marble, gren just teleported form S.

So why don't you just red-line New York on T164 and not worry about defending the g'dam furs?

 

[jesusin]

NO NO NO NO NO.

You misunderstood. The point of that is that when the galleon gets to Murky, they will disembark and go whether you unload them or not. But you want to red-line New York that turn anyway, so you want to unload them anyway. If you have red-lined the city, you want them to go and don't forget to unload them!!!!!!!!!!!!!

If you haven't red-lined the city yet, don't put the galleon into Murky until you do, or walk the plank and don't blame it on klarius, because I warned you.

You misunderstood, I didn't misunderstood, nah nah nah naah nah nah

I meant they would unload on their own IN LONDON

 

[LowtherCastle]

Whose the optimist here? It was you how kept telling the units unloaded on their own. If I gift in London without unloading the units, don't you think they would go away based on your testing?

Nope. That's a different test. There are two tests: Our galleon with KK's gifted units in KK's city and our galleon with KK's gifted units in Murky.

In KK's city, two things happen:
1. First turn they upgrade, so they can't move anyway, can they?
2. Second and every turn thereafter (I hit enter for about 20 turns), the chumps just sit in the galleon and play with themselves, like all good sailors.

DOn't ask me why. Test it yourself, if you don't believe me. It's easy enough. Takes about 2 minutes.

 

[LowtherCastle]

You misunderstood, I didn't misunderstood, nah nah nah naah nah nah

I meant they would unload on their own IN LONDON

I get it. Okay. SO if you want to play it safe, gift them the next turn, just before you leave London. As klarius says, they'll still upgrade themselves.