SGOTM 09 - Smurkz

r_rolo1 · May 28, 2009

To say the truth, I'm very reticent to start making SS parts without Labs. It is a HUGE waste of hammers. that is my main point against going Rocketry fast.

And there is another issue: we can't trade for MC now and only heaven knows when another AI will think on teching it with the techs they have open.

Niklas · May 28, 2009

Xcalibrator said:
Wha? It's probably foolhardy for me to comment on the tech path without opening the save and seeing how the non-standard tech start has messed with things, but what are the "costs" of getting Astro?

The cost of getting Astro is the beaker cost of Compass + Optics + Astro. Since we already have SciMeth and Physics to start with, Astro is a dead end for us. Sure it comes with Observatories that are needed for Labs, I keep forgetting that. But I'm still not convinced we wouldn't be better off waiting for it to appear on the tech trade scene. I honestly doubt we'll get much help from the AIs with research of later techs, so giving Astro around to increase their research rate isn't going to do much. We'd get more help simply by trading for Astro in the first place.

And BL, thanks for doing that analysis. I don't really agree that Rocketry is an immediate priority, I would much rather use Lib for Genetics due to the higher cost. But I think the case for not Lib'ing for Bio is well made, and pretty much as I had expected.

We should ensure that all AI have Paper fairly soon, so they can research PP for us. It's not that we need the tech itself (we don't), but it blocks our bulbing path.

Xcalibrator · May 28, 2009

Very nice analysis, BL! And good discussion all around. OK, I buy that the 3000 beakers we'd need to invest to get Astro aren't worth it (although we must get observatories and labs at some point). In that case, how about if we get MC right now (450 piddling little beakers) and start on forges and the Colossus. BLville might be a good place for the latter, since it could use the culture (to hold its western territory against Hammy and expand onto that forest by the lake that we need to farm).

The delay in getting Bio if we research manually grieves me. Getting Genetics (7000) instead would indeed be great, but we need Medicine (4500) first, and that requires getting Compass (400) and Optics (600). Can we really be confident the AI won't beat us to Lib'ism? If we get scared, though, we could grab Medicine, which isn't bad in itself.

We just burned 1 Great Artist to start a GA, but remember that we have another! We're going to get another GP in 9 turns. As long as it isn't another Artist we could start another GA, which would shave quite a few turns off getting Bio, and thus let us reap all the rewards that come with that. We need an awful lot of beakers to set up to get Genetics from Lib'ism, and getting those 12 extra scientists earlier (and faster city development allowed by Bio) would help a lot.

[Edit: Nobody commented on revolting to slavery for the GA. I haven't checked that we'll have the pop in Greenland, Panama, and BLville to make it worthwhile, but it might speed up the lib/uni construction in Greenland a lot (remember that we have the 100% production bonus for those), which would mean a faster Oxford and more desperately needed beakers.]

Xcalibrator · May 28, 2009

Backwards Logic said:
So we're missing out on 12 scientists for 17 turns if we do not take Bio with Liberalism. That translates to 9 beakers per scientist * 12 specialists * 17 turns = 1836 total beakers lost and 1088 GPP points.

Zaki has a library and uni, so that's an extra 918 beakers (2754 total) we're missing. And if we still get 3 GPP/turn with specialists in a quick game (?), that's 12sci*17turn*3GPP/turn*3 where the last 3 is from being Philo and running Pacifism, which gives 1836 lost GPPs, not 1088.

That makes Bio look better. I'm just sayin'.

Renata · May 28, 2009

A couple of small points:

We have medicine already; we don't need to research anything in order to Lib genetics; we could do it now.

BL's point about the Hindu missionary is very interesting and shouldn't get lost in the shuffle. We're planning a GA switch to OR anyway to spread confucianism and it's not like we'd have a shrine, so the only lost cost in doing Hindu missionaries instead is the matter of where Hinduism winds up versus where confucianism is, and the temporary loss of state religion benefits whereever Hinduism isn't. Whether it's worth it may have a lot to do with where the missionary goes, so can we agree that rolo will stop once it finds its home so we can do a little thinking?

What is generally the limiting factor in a space race like this? Hammers, or beakers? And how does our current/planned city setup impact that analysis? I'm not experienced enough to tell. Because if, for example, we're going to be spending so long building spaceship parts that the research time to genetics becomes irrelevant -- well, then it's irrelevant if we get it now or later, right?

I have to say I don't see the benefit of rocketry, either. Astronomy I do (need those labs up *before* the spaceship push kicks in); what realistically are our odds of trading for it?

As for trade routes, though -- what about an airport? That allows overseas trade even without astronomy, doesn't it? If we don't know, can we check? I don't know if we'd need an airport at the other end, though -- do settlers airlift?

Xcalibrator · May 28, 2009

Renata said:
We have medicine already; we don't need to research anything in order to Lib genetics; we could do it now.

Dagnabbit! How'd I miss that? :blush:

Well, uh, yes, that would make Genetics even more attractive. It still might be worth running another Golden Age to get Bio quicker, though. If we're going to use Lib for Genetics, though, is there any reason not to just grab it now and relax? Will it boost our power rating to dissuade trouble-makers?

Agreed on possible switching to Hinduism.

What is generally the limiting factor in a space race like this? Hammers, or beakers? And how does our current/planned city setup impact that analysis?

I don't have a lot space race experience either, but both beakers and hammers are vital; mostly beakers early and then hammers later, I think. The nice thing with Genetics is we must have it eventually and getting it with Lib'ism frees up a lot of beakers for other things. Plus, we could start building one of the big parts (stasis chamber?) as soon as we get Apollo. But your point about our city setup affecting whether or not that's worthwhile is well taken. I don't know for sure, but I think that getting an early start will save us time since we're not going to have an overabundance of high production cities.

Even if we can't trade for Astro by the time we need it we certainly ought to be able to trade for one or both of its prereqs. I'd probably err on the side of trying to get it early to boost our beaker production, but it'll probably come down to an unclear judgement call if the AIs turn out to be slackers.

Yeah, I thought about an airport, which also lets us get units to hot spots in case the barbs get ugly down south, for instance. And no, you don't need a receiving airport on the other end. Hadn't thought about shipping settlers, etc. overseas to establish new cities [edit: or conquer barbs]--very clever.

I think we'd only want to do it if there's a primo production site somewhere, though. The marginal beaker benefit will be minor. Zaki could crank out an airport pretty quickly and get the most trade route benefit (with the 50% gold Bureau bonus). Probably not worth it anywhere else, though. Yes, I believe all land units airlift--we used it on a Prophet in SGOTM8.

r_rolo1 · May 28, 2009

I normally find that the big limiting factor in space races is the production. Like a poster that I can't remember the name said, space races are a tech race for most of the game followed by production race in the end ( and in BtS, a third phase where you are praying to everything to go Ok

)

About the Astro issue: we will surely need those labs up, so we need Astro

OTOH we don't have huge prod sites for now, so the labs would take forever to build without forges and powered factories in place .... :/ I think the main benefit of having astro would be the management of Atlantis and the overseas trade routes, both of them not minor issues.

I would also be more than happy to lib bio. Ok, it is not flashy, but IMHO having nat park and 4 F grass farms makes up for the diference before the game ending.

Backwards Logic · May 28, 2009

Xcalibrator said:
Zaki has a library and uni, so that's an extra 918 beakers (2754 total) we're missing. And if we still get 3 GPP/turn with specialists in a quick game (?), that's 12sci*17turn*3GPP/turn*3 where the last 3 is from being Philo and running Pacifism, which gives 1836 lost GPPs, not 1088.

That makes Bio look better. I'm just sayin'.

Ah yes, they joy of number crunching half-asleep. I did forget to add in Zaki's library and university modifiers and as for the great people points, I'm not really sure how I got that number since I did that part last. I could have sworn I had taken Pac and Philo into account, but it would seem I didn't (EDIT: ah yes, found how I made the error. Definitely a sleepiness error :blush:

). The correct GP generation table now:

Taking Bio w/ Liberalism:

GP 1: 119
GP 2: 125
GP 3: 129
GP 4: 134
GP 5: 139
GP 6: 145
GP 7: 152

No Bio / Liberalism

GP 1: 119
GP 2: 132
GP 3: 142
GP 4: 148
GP 5: 154
GP 6: 161
GP 7: 169

So we fall behind two GP then as opposed to one. Beaker-wise, Genetics is still a better deal, and I'd even argue that having the free +3 health before we hit the Industrial Age is going to help us quite a bit. Opening up Factories as well as other polluting buildings for 'free' with regards to health is going to be plus. GP-wise, I think we're in agreement we want them late anyway for GA fuel SS part builds so there's no urgency to get them now.

As for slavery in the GA, well I'm not sure if we could use it well. I'll give you that Caste is useless to us right now, but the cities that need the whip are at pop 1 or 2. I suppose it wouldn't do us much harm to flip into it, but I'm not convinced we get anything great out of it at this point.

I agree trading for Astro is a better deal than teching it ourselves. It's a long ways off, and if we don't go the rocketry route with Lib than Labs are a long ways off too. In fact as far as Lib goes, I say we hold off in it for as long as possible and see how expensive a tech we can get with it. Genetics will always be there as a 'fall-back' if the AI get close to Lib themselves. I don't recall if any of the civs we face have Free Religion as their favorite civic, but if not then we have even more time to delay.

Xcalibrator · May 28, 2009

It's hard to balance all the tradeoffs, but let me take a shot and argue for Lib'ing Bio again. We gain 2754 beakers plus the value of 2 GPs plus a 17-turn headstart on getting extra farm food. What are the 2 GPs worth? If all the GPs we got in BL's list (above) were settled, and we assume we have Oxford (giving a beaker mod of 2.5 in Zaki) then we get an additional 1845 beakers. Alternatively, what do 2 Great Scientists yield if bulbed? Maybe something like 3000 beakers? Surely it's at least 2000. So that puts us at least 4700 beakers ahead. On the downside, Bio costs 3600 vs 7000 beakers for Genetics, but we're still at least 1300 beakers ahead.

Now what's the value of getting that extra food sooner? Bonanza and Ouzo will especially benefit, but I'm not sure how to quantify it. As a rough guess, say they each get 2 extra citizens working for 17 turns, each yielding something like 2 commerce and 2 hammers per turn, or 136 commerce and 136 hammers. My gut says the net benefits of being able to build multiplier buildings earlier will significantly magnify those benefits.

Panama needs lots of food to be a GP farm. Say we get an extra food for 17 extra turns, and then probably another extra food from a second tile for 8 turns--that's 25 food, enough to give it probably 2 extra pop relative to where it would be if we delayed Bio. (I'm waving my hands a bit here, so please correct me if I'm wrong.) On the margin that gives us something like 2 extra specialists for 17 turns, or 204 GPPs (even without Nat'l Epic) and roughly 500 extra beakers. The extra GPPs may have no value, or they might give us one extra GP (for at least 1000 beakers).

Niklas · May 28, 2009

With these new numbers, I'm switching sides. The whole argument in favor of Genetics (or anything else really) was the higher beaker gains we would make. But as Xcal shows, with the new numbers we actually gain more beakers by using Lib for Bio, so I see no reason not to do that.

I still don't want MC or Astro though. Lib for Bio, then go for Electricity.

r_rolo1 · May 28, 2009

So, is everyone agreed with chem->Lib->Bio atleast? That is enough for almost all of my set....

Xcalibrator · May 28, 2009

I think we're agreed on the tech path.

Regarding the temporary switch to OrgRel and perhaps Slavery: As BL says, "the cities that need the whip are at pop 1 or 2," but I think Greenland may be more promising. If we can finish the library soon then I suspect we'll have enough pop to whip out the university with slavery during the GA, which would set us up to build Oxford right away (assuming Ouzo also finishes in time). Even if Zaki can't get to Oxford until it finishes the Nat'l Park, I think it would still be worthwhile to whip the Greenland uni because of the +100% Philosophical leader bonus. And there isn't any downside to dropping Caste for awhile that I can see. Ah, but there is the chance of a slave revolt. Worth it or not? If we can finish the library and university with regular builds before Zaki finishes the Nat'l Park then probably not.

And remember that we want to pause after Hammy's missionary lands somewhere.

[Edit: So what's up with the Power graphs on the Progress page, with so many teams showing a big jump around now? I wouldn't expect Bio/National Park/Oxford to do that, but what do I know? Maybe they're all going for Rifling??]

unkle · May 29, 2009

Awsome discussion here.

I think we are settling for Lib->Bio, and I looks good. I really doubt AIs will give us Astro though, but this will be for later :-p

The main concern with slavery are really revolts. Especially during a GA, this would be really bad. Unless the net gain is huge, I'd stick to caste. But of course, we can also live on the edge :-)

rolo, go go go !

Niklas · May 29, 2009

Random events are off so there's no risk for revolts.

unkle · May 29, 2009

Niklas said:
Random events are off so there's no risk for revolts.

Now I feel silly.

No reason not to switch to slavery then I guess, if we really need it. I'd switch out of it last turn of the GA though, of course.

r_rolo1 · May 29, 2009

I intend to play some turns in a few hours ( when the temperature is below 30ºC ) .... so something like:

- Chem->Lib->Bio for starters in tech terms
- Go to slavery ( some other civic change? ) and whip something

- kill barbs and watch out for babylonian missionaries

Are we all agreed on this?

Backwards Logic · May 29, 2009

Yea, roll with that plan rolo

Xcalibrator · May 29, 2009

Revolt to OrgRel so we get the 25% building bonus and can build missionaries (Conf and/or Hammy's if we switch to that).

Push for 6 universities (I think only Ouzo and Greenland are left?) so we can build Oxford. Although keep in mind that we need to finish Notre Dame and Nat'l Park first.

When deciding when to use slavery, keep in mind that we get +100% on lib's and uni's (anything else?).

Use the workers efficiently. We want that last forest preserve in time for Nat'l Park. Start irrigating toward Bonanza and Ouzo when you think best, balancing against the needs of BLville and Panama. You'll have to chop the forest W of Athens--maybe there's a particularly good time for that?

Sell our maps and trade techs. Use the gold to speed up teching.

Zaki will probably be too busy, but consider building an airport to gain trade and airlift units overseas (to settle or capture new cities if there are really good production spots).

[Edit: And of course, revolt back to Pac/Caste before the GA ends!]

r_rolo1 · May 29, 2009

Ok, I played until the end of chemistry and lib start/end today ( I really have to log in in a pitboss now.... ). we still have 4 turns of GA to play with.

We traded compass and optics with wang , revolted to slavery/org Rel, killed some barbies and we'll be able to start both Oxford and nat park next turn. Surprisingly HG is still undone, so we decided to give it a dent ( could had noticed that earlier :hammer2:

)

IM spoiler for cheerful talk with MM boring discussions in between:

Spoiler :

The only realy discussion now is what to research after lib and some minor MM issues, like what to do in cap this turn, while waiting for Oxford or nat park.

Renata · May 29, 2009

Niklas Broberg diz (22:49):
when this game is over, I'm going to play it from the beginning and give everyone everything all the time
and smoke our date

Don't forget to lose Athens.

SGOTM 09 - Smurkz

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