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SGOTM 10 - Xteam

Discussion in 'Civ4 - Succession GOTM' started by AlanH, Jul 31, 2009.

  1. leif erikson

    leif erikson Game of the Month Fanatic Administrator Supporter GOTM Staff

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    That's kind of what I am hoping for. Gandhi contacted them and got their map but more progress has been made and he didn't trade again. Once we see the American Map, perhaps it will be obvious where we should go, perhaps not.

    How does a nice, peaceful, sort like Gandhi cause so many problems anyway? :rolleyes:
     
  2. Frederiksberg

    Frederiksberg Deity

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    If Gandhi had done map trading he would know the full FC of the other civs cities. So we can safely conclude that he hasn't done that.

    I notice that Gandhi's clam hasn't been improved. Is it likely that he would send a wb exploring if there was the possibility of creating fishing nets? Don't know for sure, but this may indicate that he hasn't got any wb.

    Maybe Gandhi is just doing some random exploration with his caravel - I doubt that the AI knows how to get fast circumnavigation.

    What evidence is there suggesting that Gandhi's caravel is headed east now? If we know this for sure it probably makes most sense to go west and keep map trading with Gandhi hoping that he will waste some turns so that we can get to the western fog line before he reaches it from the other side. And send a work boat to meet the Americans and do some scouting in general.

    EDIT: The longbow SW of St. Pete could return to St. Pete if we need to postpone the warrior in favor of a wb.
     
  3. Cactus Pete

    Cactus Pete Deity GOTM Staff

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    Appears unlikely that there are good city sites off our island, so attacking Gandhi to prevent his expansion may not be optional, just a matter of when and how.

    Now looks mighty good to me. We can sieze the worker and prevent both hooking the ivory and chopping of units (and G's not in Slavery). Just played Jungle III's test game for the next BtSGOTM, stole Aztec worker very early, and Monty did not come after me (even though he had more archers than I had warriors), but gave peace as soon as possible. That's from an agressive leader, though distance may have been a big factor.

    If we are sailing the caravel west, then we're free to move the explorer to pair with our longbow, which should allow us to pillage the cows in a few turns and further retard G (and the explorer could even hop aboard after the caravel has sailed west multiple turns).

    How would our culture hold up if we settle just N of the western iron to deny it?

    Re circumnavigation: We can also consider heading west and attacking first G's possible galley (and it can't be far west, given the amount of map revealed) and then his caravel with ours, hopefully with 50% chance of success, before he can return. What is possibility of trading maps during a cease fire? If we were to defeat his caravel, we might even be able to demand map for peace (that would be instant circum and suggests building a second caravel).

    Perhaps I'm confused, but thought we chopped the forest S of the rice with the hopeful intention of letting it grow back.
     
  4. ShannonCT

    ShannonCT Deity

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    Yes, so Gandhi's map comes from his own exploration.

    Then it might be a galley or another caravel. But I wouldn't rule out the AI building an exploratory workboat before hooking a resource.

    The exploration pattern is consistent with a boat that was sticking to the coast. If it were the same caravel that did that exploration, it would have had to stick to the coast for three turns, then turn around and retrace its steps back to Delhi, and then head due north. Moving diagonally would have uncovered more fog and been a shorter path around the continent. Why would he intentionally avoid uncovering more fog and saving turns? The timing doesn't work out either. There's not enough time for him to build a caravel, send it west for 3 turns, then east for 3 turns, then north, and then east again.

    A second boat makes a lot more sense.

    I bought Gandhi's map 1 turn after spotting the caravel, and he had uncovered tiles consistent with moving the caravel east 3 tiles. I bought his map 3 turns later, and he had uncovered tiles consistent with moving due east. I think it's pretty clear that Gandhi is trying to circumnavigate.

    I notice that there's no quick path for a wb to reach the Americans - something like 8-9 turns. It would be much faster to use the caravel. Gandhi will probably have circumnavigated before the wb can contact the Americans.

    Given that Gandhi has another boat heading west, it is highly likely that he will circumnavigate before our caravel could reach the western fog line (which isn't static for him). I still think quick contact with the Americans, Chinese, and English is the way to go.
     
  5. Frederiksberg

    Frederiksberg Deity

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    Instead of making guesses maybe we should simply buy Gandhi's world map for 5 gold and compare the current map with the new one we buy. If we see new tiles defogged both east and west we know that he has units in both places.
     
  6. ShannonCT

    ShannonCT Deity

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    I agree we need to plan to settle as much of our continent as possible. We should hold Gandhi to at most 3 cities on our continent.

    However, if we declare war now, we reduce our chances of circumnavigation. If we could wait just 5 turns, we can have contacted three more AI and the circumnavigation picture will be a lot clearer. Gandhi wont have the ivory hooked by then because he only has one worker now and has only built 2 roads so far. 2 LBs and an explorer should have no problem denying ivory if we declare in 5-10 turns.

    I agree the explorer doesn't seem to be needed on the caravel, with all but one AI already located and the continents looking very snaky.


    Gandhi just built Sistine in Delhi, and expect more wonderspam there. We might be able to hold the iron with enough hammers spent on culture, but I don't see the point in fighting that battle. He'll still be able to build elephants and musketmen for most of the game. If we're looking for an early war and quick peace after we've secured all of the city sites to his south and west, it doesn't matter if Gandhi can build some pikes/maces in his three cities.

    Gandhi will have circumnavigation before we could attack either of his ships. There's too much distance to cover in too short a time.


    No, that forest was chopped to provide irrigation to the rice and corn, so that they would be worth an extra food each.
     
  7. ShannonCT

    ShannonCT Deity

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    We can do that next turn. I bought his map on the current turn already.
     
  8. Cactus Pete

    Cactus Pete Deity GOTM Staff

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    "However, if we declare war now, we reduce our chances of circumnavigation. If we could wait just 5 turns, we can have contacted three more AI and the circumnavigation picture will be a lot clearer. Gandhi wont have the ivory hooked by then because he only has one worker now and has only built 2 roads so far. 2 LBs and an explorer should have no problem denying ivory if we declare in 5-10 turns." You're convinced that the probability of getting circum and its value is sufficiently high to offset certain capture of a worker?
     
  9. ShannonCT

    ShannonCT Deity

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    I'm not sure of it. No one loves a good worker theft as much as I. :mwaha:

    So the value of stealing the worker would be 1) we get a free worker and 2) we slow down Gandhi's REXing. The value of getting a free worker is somewhat diminished at this point. We already have 4, so a fifth one isn't game changing. It basically lets us build one less later. Slowing down Gandhi is the more important effect. It means he can't chop a settler/worker and he has to build another worker the slow way. In my test game, Gandhi connected Delhi and Bombay with a road through both silks. We might still have a chance to steal a worker (or two) a few turns from now. If we were to declare 5-10 turns from now without finding a chance to worker steal, would we still be able to prevent chopping with 2 LBs and an explorer?

    How important is circumnavigation? That depends on how much island hopping we have to do during the war phase. If the AI are mostly confined to single large continents, losing circumnavigation would just mean putting an extra galleon or two in the chain. With many cities on a continent, we can whip attackers/nukes in conquered cities and throw them into battle without transport. But if the AI spread out over many islands, the extra movement point would be more valuable. Our finish date would probably be affected by several turns.
     
  10. Cactus Pete

    Cactus Pete Deity GOTM Staff

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    No one loves a good get of circumnavigation as much as I, but what is your estimate of the probability of getting circumnavigation?

    In discussing the inevitability of G beating us to it, you noted how few turns it will take his caravel to get back around. What kind of ships (with how much natural movement) do you anticipate us having when we start attacking islands?

    "We might still have a chance to steal a worker (or two) a few turns from now. Where/how might this occur? If we were to declare 5-10 turns from now without finding a chance to worker steal, would we still be able to prevent chopping with 2 LBs and an explorer?" We would need to bottle up 2 workers at that point?
     
  11. ShannonCT

    ShannonCT Deity

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    Our best bet is trading maps with the Americans (all American leaders will trade maps at Cautious). If the American map extends far enough east, it can link up with Gandhi's map of the west. The American landmass might extend far enough that his explorers could help us, or he could have built a exploring vessel in either of his coastal cities. A less likely scenario is that we can get a map from the English or Chinese that extends far enough west to link up with Gandhi's map of the east. 1/3 of English leaders and 1/2 Chinese leaders will trade maps at Cautious. In either scenario, getting Gandhi's map is rather important. The least likely scenario is that Gandhi's western boat runs out of coast and his caravel gets blocked by a landmass so that our caravel could complete circumnavigation by sailing west.

    But I can't put a number on the probability.

    I would think we'd start and perhaps finish with galleons (movement 4). We could try to research Combustion for transports (movement 5) but it might be better to save the money for rush-buying. But I think what you're asking is how many turns will it take our ships to get around the map with and without the extra movement point. For transport between nearby landmasses, the extra movement point will probably save 0-1 turns. But those 0-1 turns per landing could add up to several turns over the game. For transport to distant landmasses, we can put an extra galleon in the chain. The extra movement point would probably save us hammers spent on galleons.

    He'll build a second worker eventually (probably somewhat delayed by naval builds). If we can't steal any, then we might have to bottle up two workers. We might be able to corral them into Delhi and fortify in the forests.
     
  12. Cactus Pete

    Cactus Pete Deity GOTM Staff

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    I can't figure out a likely scenario to capture worker(s) before the ivory is hooked once they move away from G's perimeter, and my best guess (and this is not a strongly held opinion) is that the probability of getting circum from either of your scenarios is low, so attacking now when G will be most severely thwarted and a worker is assured remains attractive. Cliche' day: Birds in the hand are worth a bigger one in the bush (or something like that).

    Repeating myself . . . Any idea as to the possibility of getting G's map during a cease fire or in a peace deal after a bit of pillaging?

    "I agree we need to plan to settle as much of our continent as possible. We should hold Gandhi to at most 3 cities on our continent." If you're counting an iron city as #3, agree this should be the goal.
     
  13. Mad Professor

    Mad Professor Deity

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    This seems a very good method for determining how fast Gandhi is moving boats, where and in what direction, but as SCT says he already did that this turn, to use this(very good) method we have to make sure we don't declare war this turn = missing the certain worker steal. But since we have 4 workers already that's not a big dealfor us, the main issue is slowing down Gandhi's rexing. This goal though is not insignificant. I don't know what the code says, but I notice normally that Gandhi does rex well. Having him right next to us in a game where we can't take cities is a challenge we need to think around. And if he does succeed in getting a big foothold and developing a significant empire he will be a serious problem later. He might be very peaceful generally, but upset him and give him a fist full of nukes or other serious weaponry and he will use them and in modern starts I've seen him (once riled and not stomped on the first time) build nothing but military units resulting in a massive army. Not what we want.

    The summary of that is that I like the idea of hobbling Gandhi best we can.

    I also like the idea of getting another map from him in a turn or two.

    But can we do both? So how likely is it SCT that we'll get another worker steal chance in a few turns? You mentioned this a couple of times but I don't understand how likely it is. How much of a gamble is it?
     
  14. Frederiksberg

    Frederiksberg Deity

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    I would like to clear up a few things before proceeding:

    1. How long will it take Gandhi to replace the stolen worker?
    2. Can we be sure that a war now will be "phony" meaning that no actual combat will take place before we can get a peace deal?
    3. Is it likely that the worker will continue to improve the 2nd silk?
     
  15. Grover22

    Grover22 Monarch-like

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    I'm still with you guys, reading along, and enjoying the discussion.

    My inclination would be to grab the worker. Slowing down the AI's city spamming rate should take precedence over other concerns, IMO. I'd probably vote for the worker steal even if we were assured of circum in the alternative. And given the uncertainty of circum anyway, the worker steal looks like a slam dunk to me. What's another boat or two while we're biding our time waiting for nuke techs?

    But I lose on Monarch most of the time. :)

    If we steal the worker, will our LB be able to travel via forest to the forested hill near Gandhi's iron to scare him off from hooking it? Or do we think he already has it hooked?

    Think the winning team will have Moscow 1S of where we put it? That site looks better to me. It grabs the crabs, and it cultures more tiles (so that Gandhi has fewer to look at for himself).

    G22
     
  16. Frederiksberg

    Frederiksberg Deity

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    Any chance that a war declaration will make Gandhi's caravel turn back towards Moscow? Perhaps we need to simulate the consequences of an early war declaration to answer all the questions.
     
  17. ShannonCT

    ShannonCT Deity

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    It sounds like we need more tests. In the one test I did that mirrored the terrain in Gandhi's BFCs, his road from Delhi to Bombay included both silks. I'll run another test tonight and anyone else who has time to play with worldbuilder can do the same.

    If testing shows that Gandhi will move worker(s) to the second silk next, we can delay the worker steal for a few turns.

    Once we declare war, we shouldn't make peace too soon. Building another worker will only take ~6 turns. We need to keep him bottled up long enough to keep him from settling south.
     
  18. Cactus Pete

    Cactus Pete Deity GOTM Staff

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    Testing has proven extremely informative. One of these days maybe I'll learn that aspect of the game. Pleased we're doing a bit more, though SCT gas gotten us in great position with his earlier results.

    More I think about it, the more value I put on getting the extra worker. We've got a great many worker tasks to accomplish if we're going to go to war and stop G from expanding. The new slave labor could be sent to chop the forests SW of Moscow, leaving our other four workers to improve and road the ivory, iron, and eventually the horses.
     
  19. Mad Professor

    Mad Professor Deity

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    SCT answered 1 and 3 and further testing will make the answers more certain. As for "phony" war, I would be very surprised if the units Gandhi has now move anywhere out of the cities they are defending. He's already built an extra LB that we can see but it's almost certainly a city defense unit only. What he builds *after* the war declaration is another matter though. Usually an AI will advance with any unit it builds after the minimum city defense matters are taken care of. How many units will gandhi want in his cities? After that he'll come looking for trouble with the best unit he can build - usually one unit at a time, and usually just to plunder unless he sees a city capture oppertunity with a fair chance.
     
  20. ShannonCT

    ShannonCT Deity

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    The AI start with 4 LBs, all of which should have orders to defend cities. The first units Gandhi builds may have ATTACK, RESERVE, or PILLAGE orders. Those first units built may come after us, but more likely stay at home to deal with our LBs.
     

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