SGOTM 11 - Fifth Element

[havr]

Great TS Havr!!

The only question I have about the write up is, isn't the warrior that spawned to the NE and moving SE not NW and moving SW towards Zara?

In the game I always felt that Left was West, Right was East, Up was North and Down was South?

Yes, you are correct. I got confused. It is NE and SE.

 

[havr]

Suggestion

Our strategy for this TS and the next ones will be based on the assumption that we will get Oracle & Confused. If we miss them we might need to re-evaluate our plans. Probably, not too much if we lose Confucianism but probably quite a lot if lose Oracle (for example: we might still try to chase Confucianism but without wonder).

So... instead of building very long plans that might be shelved, why not let Dhoom do a very short partial TS just to see that indeed we get Oracle & Conf?
After that we can start planning our next TSs with a checkmark.

 

[BLubmuz]

Suggestion

Our strategy for this TS and the next ones will be based on the assumption that we will get Oracle & Confused. If we miss them we might need to re-evaluate our plans. Probably, not too much if we lose Confucianism but probably quite a lot if lose Oracle (for example: we might still try to chase Confucianism but without wonder).

So... instead of building very long plans that might be shelved, why not let Dhoom do a very short partial TS just to see that indeed we get Oracle & Conf?
After that we can start planning our next TSs with a checkmark.

Agreed.
And he can even misclick and choose Fishing.

 

[havr]

And he can even misclick and choose Fishing.

Well, to do that he must be confused, but he will be confused only if he chooses CoL...

 

[unclethrill]

Suggestion

Our strategy for this TS and the next ones will be based on the assumption that we will get Oracle & Confused. If we miss them we might need to re-evaluate our plans. Probably, not too much if we lose Confucianism but probably quite a lot if lose Oracle (for example: we might still try to chase Confucianism but without wonder).

So... instead of building very long plans that might be shelved, why not let Dhoom do a very short partial TS just to see that indeed we get Oracle & Conf?
After that we can start planning our next TSs with a checkmark.

I think this is a very valid point. I agree to the proposal.

 

[Mitchum]

So... instead of building very long plans that might be shelved, why not let Dhoom do a very short partial TS just to see that indeed we get Oracle & Conf?
After that we can start planning our next TSs with a checkmark.

Great suggestion. It would only involve playing 2 turns and would provide us with a very solid place to base the rest of our testing on.

 

[Dhoomstriker]

Seeking your Feedback

Issue 1: The Barb Warrior to our east

Spoiler :

Do we mind if he dies? Do we want to keep him alive?

As of right now, the Barb Warrior can "see me"--a Hills square gives you visibility of distant squares, but those same distant squares get to see the Hills square in exchange.

The best way to keep Eastern Barb Warrior alive would probably be for me to move back 1SW onto the GFor square, so that my Warrior is "not visible" and thus does not "attract the Barb Warrior like a moth to a flame."

Obviously, staying in place on the PHFor square will give us the best defensive odds, so I'll stay there if people are okay with a high chance of the Eastern Barb Warrior suiciding on us.

I'm leaning towards just staying on the PHFor square, but I wanted to give people the chance to say otherwise, as what I do in the next couple of turns could affect how the Barb Warrior responds and for how long he survives.

Issue 2: Resource Trading with Zara

Spoiler :

I would like to:
Trade our Corn with Zara immediately for his Cow. Right now he has 2 Cows and 2 Clams showing for trade.

Once we steal Zara's Cow from him culturally, no one will "own" that Cow as a Resource, as we won't have Animal Husbandry. However, we will still keep the trade of him giving us his Cow. As long as there is no "Resource check" that was added to BTS code for Resources that an AI has "run out of," we'll keep the Trade Deal, meaning that we will get +1 Health from his Cow and he will not have a Cow appearing in his Cities' (for now, City's) list of Resources.

We can always "trade him a Cow back" once we learn Animal Husbandry and can get our Cow. That way, we will "tie up" one of Zara's Resources so that he can't trade it with another AI. That's a bit of Diplo micro that might work out for us better than other SGOTM teams will be able to do, unless the other AI or AIs that he knows already have a Cow...

Still, it's a risk that I think is worth taking, as the other AIs are just as likely to already have a Clam.

Issue 3: Open Borders Trading with Zara

Spoiler :

While this point wouldn't have to be decided immediately, since we'll stop play on the turn that Writing comes in, the decision WILL affect how our test games run, so I want to make sure that people are on board with Open Borders now, so that the test games' results can be accurate.

The test game shows us getting a +2 Trade Route in Riverside immediately after Opening Borders with Zara.

Doing so means that Confucianism can spread very easily, as it will be the only "connected" City for now--if we wait to Open Borders, Zara's Cities will trade with our "further distant" Cities, greatly increasing the chances of him getting a random religion. Which sucks because he'll probably ALSO get Confucianism in one of his other cities, due to being very close to the Confucian Holy City. With 1 religion only, Zara will not really want to switch into Free Religion. With 2+, the chance of him doing so later in the game goes up.

Also, those +2 Commerce replace a non-existent Trade Route, as Riverside is not connected to the rest of our empire, netting us an extra 2 Commerce per turn.

With us knowing 0 other AIs, there exists no one to ask us to "Cancel Deals" with Zara, so, as of right now, there is no Diplo risk.


There is a small risk that Zara will use the opportunity to send a Settler through our borders, but I contend that if he'd wanted to do so, he could have done so by now by walking either north or south of Riverside.

So, my plan is to Open Borders with Zara. If you disagree, I'd like to know now, not later, so that the test game plans can account for not getting 2 free Commerce per turn.

EDIT: The final issue is that I may have to adjust the Workers' actions and thus their chopping path if we don't get The Wheel on the same turn due to not getting the Trade Route from Zara (this point has yet to be tested, so I'm not sure if The Wheel gets delayed by a turn, but if it doesn't, some future tech will certainly be delayed a bit as a result of missing out on this Trade Route income).

 

[BLubmuz]

Seeking your Feedback

If i'm not wrong, our warrior was killed in that same PHFor, despite great odds.
If you fortify the revenger warrior there, his odds are great even against an archer, once he get the full fortify bonus.

So, my opinion is to fortify him and see what the RNG will do.

Instead of the cow, which soon we'll have anyway, i suggest the clams.
Your points about Zara trades are surely correct, but the health benefit we can have trading the corn for clams are better than trade a cow we'll soon own.

About OB, you have to stop right after Writing, since it's timed with the Oracle (or viceversa, as you like ).
So, no point discussing it now. We can go fast (in terms of RL) to a key point in our game and keep this discussion after your partial TS.
edit: in the remote case that Zara opens the trade table right after we learn Writing, asking for OB, i say let's give him, we have nothing to lose.

I think also we all agree to research the wheel after writing, so at least you can choose this as a placeholder and let it or change at wish after the official decision is taken.

So, i recommend you post a PPP for those measly 2 turns (but 2 key turns) ASAP and if you have enough inputs, that you play ASAP.

 

[Irgy]

It sounds like a good idea to me. Do we already know exactly what we want to do on those two turns? I haven't got a clue, but I can't check the test save from here at work.

 

[Dhoomstriker]

When Animal Husbandry comes in

Spoiler :

Instead of the cow, which soon we'll have anyway, i suggest the clams.
Your points about Zara trades are surely correct, but the health benefit we can have trading the corn for clams are better than trade a cow we'll soon own.

Just to clarify, the idea would be to trade Zara our Cows for his Clam.
So we'd see a bilateral trade agreement:

Zara trades with Gandhi
Cow <-> Corn
Clam <-> Cow

We can't make such a trade once our borders overlap the Cow, such a trade has to be made in advance.


Either way (bilateral trade or else just straight Corn for Clam), we will get access to both of Cow and Clam once Animal Husbandry is learned.


The biggest differences would be that:
a) By trading for Cow instead of Clam now, Zara would lose 1 Health as soon as we Culturally grabbed his Cow and he'd be short that 1 Health until we learned Animal Husbandry. This point may affect him, since he has multiple Flood Plains squares to eat away at his Health. We'd have the same amount of Health either way.

b) We'd have twice the number of trades going around, which means that Zara will become happier with us faster than if we only had 1 trade with him.

 

[BLubmuz]

When Animal Husbandry comes in

Just to clarify, the idea would be to trade Zara our Cows for his Clam.
So we'd see a bilateral trade agreement:

OK, i see. I got it already, but forget while posting.

OK, good idea.

 

[havr]

In general, I feel that these type of trades are a little like "cheating". We humans are obviously superior to anything Fireaxis can program, and we can always find exploits. It is really a mouse and cat game...

That said, we are in competition with other teams, so our real adversary is not Zara. For S-GOTM we should pull every trick we have. Just wanted to share with you my opinion on these type of tricks.

 

[Irgy]

Issue 1: I think kill it (by way of letting it attack you). If it wanders off in another direction though don't chase it certainly. Do we have any fogbusters of our own coming to 'replace' the barb warrior in that role though? Is this an area Zara might be fogbusting himself anyway?

Issue 2: I do like the idea of taking Zara's only cow. We'll need extra health in the capital after the pyramids as well if I remember correctly? I think I agree with BLubmuz though that the clams are a better option. As much fun as it is to take what will later be his only copy of a resource (from my experience, he will cancel the deal eventually but not immediately), we'll limit his trading with other AIs more by taking the clams. With our triple clam site, there's likely to be a shortage in clams among the other AIs, while I tend to find cows to be spread evenly over the map. It's not at all unusual to not be able to trade cows to anyone.

Issue 3: I think opening borders is a good idea. We're not planning on building much military, the sooner we can get to friendly the better. Note that we're likely to get the "close borders spark tension" penalty from river city, as well crossing over the shared border length cutoff that makes him more likely to declare war on us. The sooner we can get the open borders relationship bonus the better, and if it indirectly helps us get the shared religeon bonus then that's even better.

By the way, I don't know if someone's pointed this out already, but if anyone is going to take Theology before we do it's Zara. His favourite civic is Theocracy, and I thought someone mentioned his preferred religeon as Christianity (although I've never heard of preferred religeons before). This is good though, it lets us keep an eye on how things are going, and if we miss it to anyone then better it's him than one of the planned-Buddhist AIs.

 

[Irgy]

Ok, so I crossposted with:

When Animal Husbandry comes in

Just to clarify, the idea would be to trade Zara our Cows for his Clam.
So we'd see a bilateral trade agreement:

Zara trades with Gandhi
Cow <-> Corn
Clam <-> Cow
...

I understand the plan now. It seems crazy, but if it works then that's excellent.

 

[havr]

OB with Zara has two problems that I think of:

1) His scout will "escape". I am quite happy with letting him wonder around in our west.

2) I once saw the AI do it to me: he signed OB, sent a Galley to inspect my cities, saw they were weakly defended (hey, I was on a continent alone) and attacked. By OB we let Zara see how weak we are now. (and we are weak, in the Power graphs of S-GOTM we are on the bottom)

I feel we should wait with OB till we have the Wheel + have some unit ready to go exploring through his territory. The last one may actually take longer than the first one...

 

[Dhoomstriker]

No Chasing-down of Outlaws (Barb units)

Spoiler :

Issue 1: I think kill it (by way of letting it attack you). If it wanders off in another direction though don't chase it certainly.

Roger wilco (your message was received and I will comply with it). No hunting down the Barbs without a good pistol or a horse. A Warrior's club just won't cut it.

Fog-busting

Spoiler :

Do we have any fogbusters of our own coming to 'replace' the barb warrior in that role though? Is this an area Zara might be fogbusting himself anyway?

From the land that we can currently see to the east of the PHFor square, Zara's cultural borders + our 2x2 unit radius will give us 100% coverage in the east. That's of the land that we can see.

Although we're pretty certain that there isn't a big inland Lake for Zara anymore, there is a possibility of a peninsula snaking off in a couple of spots. That said, those areas would have to be "thin" based on fog-gazing. Thus, in those potential land areas, it would be tough for a spawned Barb to navigate through them in order to get to our area of the continent.

The west is apparently covered by a Barb Warrior wandering around. In the worst case, where that unit has already left the area (gone east, died on Zara's Scout, or was the dude that we fought), there is a good chance that a new Barb unit will spawn to replace it. That Barb unit would fog-bust in its place, and with the limited number of Barbs possible in our nearby area (one to the west and the one that we see to the east), we shouldn't see Barbs invading our borders at least until we settle City 4.


There are no plans to replace the fallen Warrior at this time, as the western Barb unit is almost certainly fog-busting the area to the west of the PHFor and the visible area to the east is covered by us and Zara and any remaining area is partially covered (or fully covered) by the Barb Warrior that we can see to our east.

Theocracy

Spoiler :

By the way, I don't know if someone's pointed this out already, but if anyone is going to take Theology before we do it's Zara. His favourite civic is Theocracy, and I thought someone mentioned his preferred religeon as Christianity (although I've never heard of preferred religeons before). This is good though, it lets us keep an eye on how things are going, and if we miss it to anyone then better it's him than one of the planned-Buddhist AIs.

A while back (10 pages or so?), I linked to another thread on the forums that talks about the Favourite Religion capability of a Mod. Apparently, only a tiny bit of the Mod actually made it into the BTS code base. The belief was that this XML value is only used by the code during a game where "Choose Religions" is an enabled setting, which would mean that it would have no effect in our game at all.

However, your point about Theocracy being beelined after is an excellent point, as AIs do take their Favourite Civics, particularly the Religious ones, very seriously.


If we end up using the City-gifting idea as part of our winning Diplo strategy, Zara liking Theocracy is a great thing, if he's the only AI to get Confucianism. He'll eventually get the Confucian Holy City from us in such a scenario, so it's the perfect religion for him to get in all of his Cities.


You do raise another important consideration, though: an AI who likes Theocracy as their Favourite Civic could cause us trouble down the road, if they don't get Buddhism. Does anyone have a list of AIs who have a Favourite Civic of Theocracy in BTS? If so, then we can keep this point in the back of our minds in case we meet other such AIs. It would be a cruel trick on DynamicSpirit's part to put in a bunch of Civs that all share the same Favourite Civic, making it hard to get their votes without a gifting trick, and even then a bit harder, if a lot of the AIs in our game have Theocracy as their Favourite Civic.

 

[Dhoomstriker]

Zara's Scout going elsewhere--where he is likely to go

Spoiler :

1) His scout will "escape".

Agreed. Zara's Scout walked around our land--rather randomly, let me tell you, in my test games.

There was no beelining of the Scout to the Wheat location, nor to any location, really. He just kept wandering back and forth.

Since you agree that we'll eventually be Opening Borders with Zara, I see no concern about Zara scouting our land for map knowledge. He'll learn of the area sooner or later, and has likely already scouted a lot of it during the early game when he had 2 Scouts and probably sent at least one though our southern territory, considering the fact that we believe we saw evidence of a dead Scout to our west and we see the other one now also to our west.

Zara's Scout as a Spawn-buster

Spoiler :

I am quite happy with letting him wonder around in our west.

While his Scout has been useful there, we have the area well spawn-busted with 3 Warriors. So, I am also not worried about losing his helpful spawn-busting, now that you have Warrior 6 out there.

Mapping out our Lands and Relative Power Levels

Spoiler :

2) I once saw the AI do it to me: he signed OB, sent a Galley to inspect my cities, saw they were weakly defended (hey, I was on a continent alone) and attacked. By OB we let Zara see how weak we are now. (and we are weak, in the Power graphs of S-GOTM we are on the bottom)

True, this very scenario could happen, but with a Galley being replaced by a Scout.

However, consider that we have no plans to build an Axeman. The longer that we delay Opening Borders, if we plan to open them soon anyway, the worse off we'll be against other SGOTM teams who do get Trade Routes for their Cities.

Also, I would like to think that AIs are not totally stupid in their algorithms: other than Montezuma or other "crazies" like him, I do not foresee see an AI that has 1/3rd the number of Cities attacking us. The relative City ratio plays a big role in how they evaluate the Diplo situation and whether they will attack.

Our Power level is low relative to other SGOTM teams' Power levels, but I would imagine that Our Zara's Power level is also similarly relatively low compared to other SGOTM teams' Zara's Power level. Try saying that sentence outloud without getting confused!

I looked at our Demographics. In the early game, Zara had 3 to 4 times our Power level. Now, he has about 1.65 times our Power level. I'm not sure how The Oracle, Writing, Code of Laws, an extra Religion, and an extra Missionary will calculate into that value, but we'll (if all goes according to plan) have those things in hand by the time that we can Open Borders with Zara.

Finally, I will come back to my argument that I'd love it if Zara attaked us. Why bother to throw Hammers in Riverside into Cultural buildings if we can just throw some Axes to take back Riverside (I'm assuming that we'll lose the City in a war) and Zara's capitol, leaving him with some meagre City (we'll wait for him to settle such a City, if he hasn't by the time that he declares war on us, before robbing him of his capitol).

We also would remove the need to trade for either Cow or Clam--we'd have them all!


The sooner that we get into a War, the sooner that we can have a Great General for either:
a) One less Great Person needed at the end of the game
b) A better military-upgraded once we have the required techs to pump out a solid attacking force

So what did you see on your turnset? Plus more random related comments

Spoiler :

Did Zara have many Archers that appeared to be wandering around or massing in numbers?

AIs are unlikely to attack when they only have 1 City, but even less so if they didn't make much of an army.

I fear nothing stronger than an Archer from Zara, because when I talk to him repeatedly, he'll simply say "Fear my Archer!" The AIs will brag about their best unit, so clearly that's his best!

Finally, The F5 Military Advisor -> Sit-rep has Zara listed as only a moderate-looking threat (50% of the threat indicator bar is coloured-in), which generally means that the AI does not have war on their mind at this time.

 

[Dhoomstriker]

Open Borders

Spoiler :

edit: in the remote case that Zara opens the trade table right after we learn Writing, asking for OB, i say let's give him, we have nothing to lose.

Just so that you know, when an AI offers a trade where you allowed to negotiate it, it is the kind of trade that an AI will not get mad at you for refusing.

So, if Zara offers Open Borders, I can simply say "Care to negotiate?" and then I won't get harmed by not accepting the deal.

For an Open Borders agreement, you can also safely get away with choosing the "It ain't happening" option, but I prefer to train my brain to look for and will always select the "Care to negotiate?" option.

Why? Well, if they won't let you negotiate, then Diplo modifying points are going to be involved with the decision, so if you train yourself to always pick the "Care to negotiate?" option, your brain will "wake up" and read the message a little more carefully if there isn't a "Care to negotiate?" choice.


There is the odd important exception to the "Care to negotiate?" selection--sometimes a Furious AI will offer you a trade due to them passing a random number check. Let's call it the "drunken stupor after a night of partying" check. If you select "Care to negotiate?," then the AI's head will clear and his brain will wake up and he will say "Hey, wait a minute, I hate your guts! I'm not going to trade with you!" But if you accept the trade as offered, you'll get the deal, even if you are their Worst Enemy and they won't trade with you otherwise. But that exception case happens very rarely, so it's only a minor point to keep in the back of our minds if we have an AI that hates us a lot in this game.


Therefore, since the Open Borders issue isn't 100% unanimous at this time, if Zara offers to Open Borders, I will turn him down, as turning him down will not incur any diplomatic penalty. We can make the decision as part of the turnset being played after the first mini-turnset.

 

[BLubmuz]

Open BordersSo, if Zara offers Open Borders, I can simply say "Care to negotiate?" and then I won't get harmed by not accepting the deal.

There is the odd important exception to the "Care to negotiate?" selection--sometimes a Furious AI will offer you a trade due to them passing a random number check. Let's call it the "drunken stupor after a night of partying" check. If you select "Care to negotiate?," then the AI's head will clear and his brain will wake up and he will say "Hey, wait a minute, I hate your guts! I'm not going to trade with you!" But if you accept the trade as offered, you'll get the deal, even if you are their Worst Enemy and they won't trade with you otherwise. But that exception case happens very rarely, so it's only a minor point to keep in the back of our minds if we have an AI that hates us a lot in this game.


Therefore, since the Open Borders issue isn't 100% unanimous at this time, if Zara offers to Open Borders, I will turn him down, as turning him down will not incur any diplomatic penalty. We can make the decision as part of the turnset being played after the first mini-turnset.

OK, i always use the "care to negotiate" option when i want refuse a proposal or i try to sqeeze a better trade. And sometime i fell in the trap to lose a trade, as you describe it.
But with an OB proposal is OK.

So, your PPP? 2 turns is not a great effort, c'mon!

 

[unclethrill]

I think that we need to OB with Zara as soon as possible. He isn't likely to walk a settler past our capital to settle his 3rd city and he could just walk around us if he wanted to put some city over there so there is no reason to delay the OB with him.

I also like the trade for cows.