SGOTM 11 - One Short Straw

[LowtherCastle]

Well done on getting the GE Shyuhe! Now we're in with a chance, although Ducks might be crushing us.

Is poprushing Delhi to get the UN faster not an option?

If we have troubles spreading Buddhism to Oasis, deer, incense, and gold city, would gifting any of them be an option, just in case?

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Definitely no tiebreakers in SGs. With the Diplo VC there are likely to be multiple award getters.

 

[LowtherCastle]

Does anybody remember the timing of UN votes? I think it's:

T+0: complete UN; vote for UN chair
T+1: UN chair results
T+9: UN vote
T+10: UN vote results

Is this right?

The results should be on T+9, for victory on T+10.

YOu guys dead certain about this? In SG7, which as I recall was NOT Bts, it was this:

In fact the vote is always triggered on turns divisible by 4.

Maybe someone should test it.

 

[babybluepants]

Epic speed.
HOF sample

Since we have 10t between UN completion and victory, we can renegotiate our silk and dye deals as soon as 1t after UN.

Is poprushing Delhi to get the UN faster not an option?

Would be, if we were in Slavery.

It's frustrating that we're so close to a 2t build, but I didn't think we'd be able to do it without scoring Guilds anyway. Not that big a deal. I guess we can just try to squeeze out every last coin this turn and hope the AIs pull through with some trade cash IBT.

Losing Justinian's vote is the only thing that could deter us now. Don't have time to look at the logistics involved now, but is there any way we can just rush-buy 2 missionaries on the west coast right now and send them over to him?

 

[shyuhe]

Well done on getting the GE Shyuhe! Now we're in with a chance, although Ducks might be crushing us.

For reference: http://hof.civfanatics.net/civ4/

We are going to finish around 1050 AD I believe, which is incredibly fast even by HOF standards. We've been research limited most of the game and I find it hard to believe that the Ducks could have researched faster than us without Oxford (who knows, maybe they had more trees left).

The 8 turn vote is for bts.

edit: x-post with bbp.

 

[shyuhe]

By the looks of it, we can squeeze out about another 40-50 gold this turn, which leaves us about a hundred gold short. I'd be willing to starve some cities by a pop to see if we can get the extra cash. We can also gift some units in Toku's lands to save a few gpt as well. Also use the Tao missionary in Delhi - see if it cuts some costs.

Our inability to talk to Saladin means that we MUST spread Buddhism to gold. One voting cycle should be more than enough time though, especially if we rush buy. It might be worth rush-buying missionaries in DevilsGate to spread to Justinian. We need his votes and need to keep him in Buddhism.

Don't forget to move the GP from 2-fish to fur - we have plenty of time to do so.

 

[babybluepants]

Our inability to talk to Saladin means that we MUST spread Buddhism to gold.

Good point.

I'd be willing to starve some cities by a pop to see if we can get the extra cash.

I think we should do that. Just hire all citizens as merchants in a few cities.

 

[shyuhe]

I think we should do that. Just hire all citizens as merchants in a few cities.

Not quite. Just hire merchants for any tile that yields fewer than some combination of hammers + coins = 3. So coast should be changed to merchants but villages should not. We'll still be short gold but we can hope that the AI hits a gold mine somehow.

If we don't get the cash next turn, we might as well start rush buying - I'd buy 2 missionaries in our homeland for every 1 in Devil's Gate (for Justinian). Losing Justinian's vote is the only way we can lose now.

 

[mdy]

If we don't get the cash next turn, we might as well start rush buying - I'd buy 2 missionaries in our homeland for every 1 in Devil's Gate (for Justinian). Losing Justinian's vote is the only way we can lose now.

I think we should ensure we have built enough missionaries for all our cities before spreading Buddishm to Justin. We can probably win without spreading it to any of his cities, but it would be disastorous if we did not spread it to all our cities in time due to bad RNG. If Justin still flips out of Buddism we might try mass gifting him all our techs except liberalism/eduacation to get the +1/2 you have shared your technological discoveries with us bonus.

I'd be willing to starve some cities by a pop to see if we can get the extra cash.

I agree.

hard to believe that the Ducks could have researched faster than us without Oxford (who knows, maybe they had more trees left).

I wouldn't be so sure. A much larger pop could easily outweigh a slightly later Oxford.

 

[babybluepants]

I think we should ensure we have built enough missionaries for all our cities before spreading Buddishm to Justin. We can probably win without spreading it to any of his cities, but it would be disastorous if we did not spread it to all our cities in time due to bad RNG. If Justin still flips out of Buddism we might try mass gifting him all our techs except liberalism/eduacation to get the +1/2 you have shared your technological discoveries with us bonus.

We'll have +5 if he flips, I think. There's another +1 Theo and +1 trade. If he DOW's Toku, we could potentially also get +1 shared struggle.

@Silu,
What are the "shared tech discovery" mechanics?
Any chance we can lose one of the WE trade minuses by T+11?

 

[shyuhe]

Shared technology is +1 for every 10 technologies you give/trade to that civ.

 

[Silu]

We'll have +5 if he flips, I think. There's another +1 Theo and +1 trade. If he DOW's Toku, we could potentially also get +1 shared struggle.

@Silu,
What are the "shared tech discovery" mechanics?
Any chance we can lose one of the WE trade minuses by T+11?

Well sure there's a chance, especially if it hasn't hit -4. Though the chance is very small regardless. Practically impossible to calculate

Shared technology is +1 for every 10 technologies you give/trade to that civ.

I don't think that ever goes beyond +1. For some reason I can't find the code for it right now. I could be wrong.

Sorry for not being of much help. I'll see if I'll find anything a tad later.

 

[shyuhe]

I don't think that ever goes beyond +1. For some reason I can't find the code for it right now. I could be wrong.

I've had it go up to +2. But you have to have most of the tech tree since that's 20 techs you have to trade to the AI.

 

[Silu]

I've had it go up to +2. But you have to have most of the tech tree since that's 20 techs you have to trade to the AI.

BTW I'm relatively sure you need 10 tech techs the AI remembers for the bonus, as they tend to forget about things. 1% chance every turn they forget they've received a tech. So not a big factor by any means anyway.

 

[shyuhe]

Right.

Also, who's taking the last set of the game? I think it's bbp's turn.

 

[babybluepants]

I guess Mutineer's not around yet. Ok, I can take it and finish this weekend, or whenever we agree on the few remaining issues.

I'll have a look at how possible it is to rush-buy UN next turn tonight. If we can't, we'll have way too much cash left and an extra turn, so a Justinian-missionary spam is probably much more viable as a plan. Could even start by playing a single turn, if the rush-buy depends on AIs getting some cash IBT?

 

[LowtherCastle]

There are plenty of ways Ducks could be slaughtering us. MoM + 2 (or 3) GAs for starters. Don't forget we burned a couple GPs early on and didn't get any GGs. Then there's Aksum, which captured some time ago would have been a GP farm galore, and there's Saladin. I think we did pretty well, but this game could have been won quite a bit faster, if a team had taken some chances or made some pretty obvious assumptions. We made a lot of correct assumptions, but missed the obvious one that we could DoW Zara a lot earlier if we wanted. Worker-farming alone, Zara or Sal, would have given any team a big advantage over us.

 

[LowtherCastle]

For reference: http://hof.civfanatics.net/civ4/

We are going to finish around 1050 AD I believe, which is incredibly fast even by HOF standards. We've been research limited most of the game and I find it hard to believe that the Ducks could have researched faster than us without Oxford (who knows, maybe they had more trees left).

The 8 turn vote is for bts.

edit: x-post with bbp.

Okay, so now it's gone down from 10t to 8t. DO I have any more buyers?

Looking at the Misotu example you linked, I see the UN on T280 and the elections on T288. Both turns are divisible by 8. So I ask you: Are you sure the election doesn't occur on the next turn divisible by 8? That would be T240, then T248.

If that's the case, can we make it by the T240 date, including both the SecGen and Victory elections?
If not, do we have to hurry the UN to guarantee a T248 election?
If not, can we save our cash rush money for missionaries because we konw that the eleciton will be on T248 whether we finish the UN in 2t or 3t?

Food for thnought.

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It would be easy for someone to test. Just set up a save, then build the UN on T+0, T+1, T+2, etc. and see when the elections happen.

 

[shyuhe]

@bbp - I'm fine with playing it through to the end, although we should figure out missionary logistics before we play the set. I thin it's something like (assuming a 3 turn build):

T+0 - switch to max cash, start moving galleons to set up galleon chain from Aksum to Devil fort.
T+1 - 2-fish pops GP, send to boat at Aksum. Put cities back to minimal growth and max cash (no starvation).
T+3 - complete UN; Delhi -- missionary, Bombay -- missionary, DevilsGate -- missionary. UN secretary vote.
T+4 - rush buy missionaries. We become UN secretary.
T+5 - Delhi missionary to deer, Bombay missionary to incense, DevilsGate missionary to hop on boat near Justinian. GP gets on boat at Aksum and sets sail. Incense -- missionary, rice -- missionary, Delhi -- missionary (back-up).
T+6 - rush buy missionaries.
T+7 - Incense missionary to oasis, rice missionary to gold city. Delhi missionary to any city with failed spread. Assuming we get spreads everywhere, we're done with OR. So revolt to Rep/VASSALAGE/THEOCRACY. Set cities to max growth.
T+8 - I think the GP arrives at Devil fort.
T+10 - GP arrives at fur.
T+12 - Diplo victory vote
T+13 - we win.

Somewhere around T+5 or T+6, we should re-negotiate the silk and dye trade deals just to be safe. Also, I'm not looking at the map so my transit numbers might be off.

 

[babybluepants]

Ok, I'll have a look at that plan a bit later.

@LC,
We'll see what the other teams are up to soon enough (including GK). Sure, the Ducks could be creaming us. If for no other reason, than because I have yet to see Duckweed actually lose a competitive game.

I don't think Aksum capture or worker farming were viable early for any team, even if they scouted well, unlike us. We were considering attacking Mehmed or Toku or Sal as late as 500-ish AD, if I'm not mistaken - that's how difficult this is to estimate. Burning a DOW pre-Paper is just an unreasonable risk, IMHO.

Also, I don't see any evidence in the graphs that they warred early. We were clearly leading in the BC's, which suggests that our Bureau-whipping caught up with and surpassed everyone else's expansion. We didn't tech or trade enough pre-Oxford for the lead to be purely tech-based.

TBH, I think we got very lucky with religion distribution in our game. Getting the votes could have been much more difficult and I suspect it will be for many other teams.

Okay, so now it's gone down from 10t to 8t. DO I have any more buyers?

Edit: Nevermind, you may be right. I don't actually know.

 

[shyuhe]

Okay, so now it's gone down from 10t to 8t. DO I have any more buyers?

Looking at the Misotu example you linked, I see the UN on T280 and the elections on T288. Both turns are divisible by 8. So I ask you: Are you sure the election doesn't occur on the next turn divisible by 8? That would be T240, then T248.

If that's the case, can we make it by the T240 date, including both the SecGen and Victory elections?
If not, do we have to hurry the UN to guarantee a T248 election?
If not, can we save our cash rush money for missionaries because we konw that the eleciton will be on T248 whether we finish the UN in 2t or 3t?

Food for thnought.

--------

It would be easy for someone to test. Just set up a save, then build the UN on T+0, T+1, T+2, etc. and see when the elections happen.

I'll try to test this if I have the time. I think the HOF numbers support the T+10 as first chance to win (all 3.13 games):

Built T247, victory on T257 (WastinTime 1120 AD)
Built T253, victory on T263 (Dracandross 1180 AD)
Built T254, victory on T264 (WastinTime 1190AD)
Build T248, victory on T266 (two voting cycles for 10+8, kovacsflo 1210 AD)

The UN voting algorithm was different in vanilla and warlords.

edit: just to be clear, T+10 includes the two turns for UN secretary voting and 8 turns for diplo victory voting.