SGOTM 12 - One Short Straw

[bcool]

What is the cost of delaying communism ~5 turns? I guess it is worth more than an extra 5 treb we might lose on Beijing attack?

edit: this was just a random guess, comparing the difficulty of taking Beijing with lots of defenders and the optimistic belief that we could lure some out if we threatened Nanjing or some might leave to defend against rosey.

Away from the game, I have no idea if we couldn't capture Beijing before the GA is over if we go for Nanjing first.

 

[babybluepants]

What is the cost of delaying communism ~5 turns? I guess it is worth more than an extra 5 treb we might lose on Beijing attack?

I'm not sure what you mean? Which 5t? Is that your assumption on the difference between Beijing-first and Nanjing-first? Seems steep.

The real cost difference is the turn of anarchy, as well, assuming we can get it before GA ends one way but not the other.

Edit: xpost. You answered me already...

 

[bcool]

I think we avoid the turn of anarchy if we reduce Mao to 3 or less cities before the end of this GA or we avoid it by switching at the start of the GA triggered by Taj Mahal.

 

[LowtherCastle]

What is the cost of delaying communism ~5 turns? I guess it is worth more than an extra 5 treb we might lose on Beijing attack?

We can expect to lose 5 trebs every time we attack a hill city with 5 or more lbs. That's because it takes 5t*8HP/t = 40HP worth of collateral damage to get the 4-strength treb fighting against worse than a 67HP*6 = 4-strength lb. In other words, 4t*8HP/t = 32HP leaves the lb at just above 4, giving it something like 70% odds, including the first strikes. 66HP or less drop it below 50% for the first time.

Actually, we may be in luck if we go for T+3, because the last 3 of the 8 lbs should have only 10% fortification bonus. That means we only need 22HP damage to get it below 50% odds of survival. 3t*8HP/t = 24HP.

So against 6 or against 8 is likely to lead to about the same amount of treb losses. The bad news, though, is that without have 8lbs*2trebs/lbs = 16 trebs, we increase the odds of losing a mace because our trebs didn't redline the lbs.

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This is my current thinking, since the trend is toward attacking Beijing.
T+0 Go ahead and upgrade the 2 swords, despite no one preferring that but me.
T+1 Spy verifies no units within 3 tiles of Shanghai to the south.
T+1 DoW and move ALL of our units to Shanghai-NW/W/SW and move the sea vessels out of Shanghai too. Hopefully, emptying Shanghai will draw 1 or more lbs out of Beijing to the dyes tile to the south.
T+2 Move damaged and Shanghai garrisons back to Shanghai, while moving the other units to block AI attackers re-entry into Beijing.
T+3 Capture Beijing.

 

[Mitchum]

because when Siberia's borders pop in 3 turns we will get access to the wine resources and the +1

I didn't realize that a fort worked like this. I thought we actually had to put a winery on the wine to get the effect. Good to know.

 

[bcool]

LC do you think threatening Nanjing this turn with a unit has any effect?

 

[LowtherCastle]

LC do you think threatening Nanjing this turn with a unit has any effect?

Well, it might draw some units out of Beijing, but then next turn when we cross the border, they'll most likely just go back in. because we won't be able to block their re-entry. And then we have one less unit for attacking or garrisoning with.

 

[bcool]

We might be able to ambush them if we anticipated where they would go, but that would be a big gamble I guess.

 

[LowtherCastle]

That's another possibility with my proposal above: PUt most of our units on Shanghai-SW, assuming they'd go to the dyes when we left Shanghai empty. But I don't see how threatening Nanjing helps there. I think they'll either go to the hill or the dyes. Either way it's no good for us.

 

[LowtherCastle]

Well let me konw what you think guys, and I'll play in the morning.

 

[babybluepants]

I'm cool with the T+3 Beijing capture. A bit unclear on the tech/Taj/civics, but I guess that's all beyond T+3.

 

[Mitchum]

I'm fine with the current plan as well.

 

[LowtherCastle]

I'm cool with the T+3 Beijing capture. A bit unclear on the tech/Taj/civics, but I guess that's all beyond T+3.

Well, I'm planning on revolting to Nationhood either this turn or next, because I want to be able to revolt again before the GA is over. Any reason to stay in Bureau one more turn?

 

[bcool]

In the test game I actually saved more gold with Nationhood so unless we are going 100% science I think Nationhood is the clear winner.

 

[LowtherCastle]

Thanks.

 

[Mitchum]

I mentioned it earlier but have not seen anyone confirm it. Be sure to get Mao's gold (either this turn or T+1 before the DoW) and his 5 gpt this turn.

 

[LowtherCastle]

Right. Good idea!

 

[babybluepants]

Well, I'm planning on revolting to Nationhood either this turn or next, because I want to be able to revolt again before the GA is over.

Yeah, but what are you planning for that switch in T+5-6 then? I guess I'm now confused about whether we are now planning to draft longer term and when we are launching the Taj GA. If we were staying in Nationhood longer, when would we get GT built?

 

[LowtherCastle]

Yeah, but what are you planning for that switch in T+5-6 then? I guess I'm now confused about whether we are now planning to draft longer term and when we are launching the Taj GA. If we were staying in Nationhood longer, when would we get GT built?

I figured I'd end my turnset before that. Leave that decision to the next turnset. Seems like a pretty good stopping point, don't you think?

 

[LowtherCastle]

One more issue here: Mao was willing to talk after 5t last time. His standard wait time is 8t, then it's shortened as I described in an earlier post. The sooner we DoW, the sooner we'll be able to talk. Do we want to DoW this turn, just in case? It's possible we'll want to cease fire immediately at some point, to preserve our capture.