SGOTM 12 - One Short Straw

Mitchum · Dec 21, 2010

bcool said:
~~I'm slowing GP Farm down so Fish can go first with the GM.~~
sorry I meant I'm slowing down Pigs, but you were talking about GP Farm , silly me got confused since our NE is in Pigs
GP Farm will start to need those Farms to keep growing and I'm keeping up with the spreadsheet numbers.

OK. I think things were pretty well laid out for the next three great people. After that I think things are a bit far out to predict reliably.

What I suggest is to work max specialists in GP Farm while still growing 1 pop/turn. This city has the potential to produce three more great people if we push it hard (I think). No :mad:

and no

and we haven't really taken full advantage of that other than drafting an army of muskets. I think we can make this city shine even more and possibly it will save the day for our 5-person GA at the end of the game...

bcool · Dec 21, 2010

GP Farm's 1st GP would be much nicer as an artist since we get a GS for free from Physics.

So Scientists after artist okay? I'm building spy buildings there so fewer artists asap.

Mitchum · Dec 21, 2010

bcool said:
I was going to upload after finishing RR, need to figure out the war plans after Churchill's caravel threw a wrench in those plans

I know. He killed 4 caravels during my turnset, two of them at ~30% odds and the other two by sneaking out of the fog of war and blindsiding them. With that said, taking over several mature cities at the cost of half a dozen caravels and few seige and an odd city attacker is a small price to pay.

Mitchum · Dec 21, 2010

bcool said:
GP Farm's 1st GP would be much nicer as an artist since we get a GS for free from Physics.

So Scientists after artist okay? I'm building spy buildings there so fewer artists asap.

That makes sense. That was why I wanted to push that GArt out ASAP so that we can start hiring a ton of more useful specialists there.

babybluepants · Dec 21, 2010

Pigs can do 3 Artists at 95% + odds. Why do we want GP Farm doing them, as well?

You're overestimating, Mitchum. With great RNG luck, we're looking at 3000-3200 gpp in the end. To achieve two GP in 36t, you'd need an average of about 140gpp/turn, which is 15 specialists. To get 3 GP, we'd need to continuously run 25+ specialists from here on. Ain't gonna happen (nor is it necessary).

bcool · Dec 21, 2010

Moscow popped a GE, so artists in Pigs can switch to scientists.

The GA with 4 people needs an artist (or at least that is the easiest type to produce) and we get a GS for free from Physics.

Take a look at the spreadsheet a while back, and improve on it if you can. But artists in GP Farm and Pigs worked out the best as far as I could figure out, until Moscow popped a GE, now Pigs can run Scientists.

babybluepants · Dec 21, 2010

bcool said:
Moscow popped a GE, so artists in Pigs can switch to scientists.

The GA with 4 people needs an artist (or at least that is the easiest type to produce) and we get a GS for free from Physics.

Take a look at the spreadsheet a while back, and improve on it if you can. But artists in GP Farm and Pigs worked out the best as far as I could figure out, until Moscow popped a GE, now Pigs can run Scientists.

Pigs doesn't even have a university, nor will it have an Observatory, and has easy Artist odds. Getting the 2200gpp from there by T229 will be tight, but it's doable. I think GP Farm should be running the 5GP GS or a GM.

Do we have any Sci odds in Fish? I can't look at the save right now.

If not, then you can exploit the GE by running some Sci right now, but I'd switch back to all Artists 1t before the GP pops to get as pure as possible for the next.

Mitchum · Dec 21, 2010

bcool said:
Moscow popped a GE, so artists in Pigs can switch to scientists.

The GA with 4 people needs an artist (or at least that is the easiest type to produce) and we get a GS for free from Physics.

Take a look at the spreadsheet a while back, and improve on it if you can. But artists in GP Farm and Pigs worked out the best as far as I could figure out, until Moscow popped a GE, now Pigs can run Scientists.

GEs are hard to get. I'd be inclined to save him for our 4 or 5 person GA if possible. Is it possible to get the Physics GS sooner so that our 3-person GA can be a GS-GArt-GM?

If you're stopping now, we can take some time to work all of this out.

babybluepants · Dec 21, 2010

^^ Yes, let's see if we can do that.

Mitchum · Dec 21, 2010

babybluepants said:
Do we have any Sci odds in Fish? I can't look at the save right now.

With all of the wealth multipliers in Fish, I think we should work nothing but merchants there.

bcool · Dec 21, 2010

Uploaded, let's reexamine the spreadsheet because any change in the gpp plan changes everything else in the plan. We might be able to starve a city and produce another great person and save the GE, but lets look at how it changes everything first.

I will try to come up with an updated PPP to reflect the current situation.

But if anyone has advice on Gandhi war plans now I would appreciate it.

Other big decisions, attempt a steal of Astronomy? Or wait for someone else to get it and trade for it? Research it ourselves.

obviously all the gpp plans need to be reworked with GE in moscow.

Good things
War with Churchill is basically over

Founded Mining Inc! :woohoo:

Stalin opened his borders !!! who would have believed it ?!
Silly me opened our borders even though I think we need astronomy to benefit from the trade routes.

log

Spoiler :

Mitchum · Dec 21, 2010

Do we want to consider stealing Astro if Roosevelt doesn't research it soon?

For Astronomy, here are the current values (EDIT: from the previous save, not the one bcool just uploaded):

Base beakers: 3120
State Religion: -40%
Trade Routes: For some reason we aren't getting this bonus in the current save...
Culture: -6%
Epp Diferential: -36%
Distance: +6%
Stationary: -10% (T208)

3120 * 1.5 * 0.6 * 1.0 * 0.94 * 0.64 * 1.06 = 1791

T208 (10%) -> 1612
T209 (20%) -> 1433
T210 (30%) -> 1253
T211 (40%) -> 1074
T212 (50%) -> 895

We currently have 18 :espionage:

on Gandhi with +252 :espionage:

/turn.

We have 621 :espionage:

on Roosevelt and currently need 1512 :espionage:

to see his research. 1512 - 621 = 891 / 252 = 3.54 turns.

If we direct 100% of our passive :espionage:

toward Gandhi now, we can steal Astronomy on T212 when we'll have 1,026 :espionage:

on him. If we keep our science slider at 0% during this time, we should be able to research Physics in 4 more turns = T216. Our current golden age ends on T217, so this would be just barely in time to use the free GS to help trigger the 3-person GA... At the expense of delaying Assembly Line for 10+ turns. I'm not sure it's worth it.

We can alternatively finish Astronomy ourselves in 2 turns and then Physics in 5 more turns (~T215), but I hate to research something that we should be able to get in trade soon. :crazyeye:

Thoughts?

Mitchum · Dec 21, 2010

We're getting the Trade Route discount now :confused:

, so these numbers change to:

T210 (30%) -> ~~1253~~ 1003
T211 (40%) -> ~~1074~~ 860
T212 (50%) -> ~~895~~ 716

So we could steal Astronomy in (716 -18)/256 = 3 turns => T213. Our current Golden Age ends on T217...

bcool · Dec 21, 2010

Next turn switch to Nationhood, put espionage slider to 50 or 60%
T212 we steal astronomy

Research cost to finish astronomy 1284 invested, cost 3120, remaining 1836. But discount 1836/1.2= 1530
significantly less than cost to steal on T212 ~~895~~ 716 espionage.

Gandhi switched to free market so that explains the trade route bonus.

so passive steal astronomy T213 unless tradeable before that continue researching Assembly Line

Most efficient use of espionage, use what we have on Roosy to steal Riflery.

seems like the plan to me.

bcool · Dec 21, 2010

Or accelerate steal by 1 turn with probably only 10-20% espionage slider under Nationhood and research Physics for the free GS, saving GE for next GA.
advantages get trade routes with Stalin (will help when lose Gandhi's)
Can settle island / clear them of fallout sooner.
Problems
Delay assembly line, lose out on Colossus bonus,
~7% risk of GS in Pigs

Other option
research Assembly line as fast as reasonable possible, use GE for 3 person GA, trade for astronomy when possible. Otherwise set up steal after get eyes on Roosy research.
Problems
Makes defending galleys to Gandhi difficult. With effort Hastings can build ironclad in 2 turns then 4 turn trip to Newcastle not very good. Can build caravel as a stop gag this turn, defend stack with caravel and trireme, sacrifice them probably.

Other stack near xian no defense, maybe a trireme in 5 turns? just sacrifice a few galleys?

Never got a eyes in Gandhi's lands (churchill's caravels prevented

) sorry.

Plan for Gap in GA to whip factories and courthouses
(or do we just wait for Cristo Redeemer)

bcool · Dec 21, 2010

I'm taking a 4 hour break, lunch, letters of recommendation.

babybluepants · Dec 21, 2010

I won't be able to comment on the save until quite late tonight. If you're continuing in a few hours, I think I'm in favour of sticking with the plan and burning the GE. AL is the most useful tech for us right now.

bcool · Dec 21, 2010

I just meant that I won't respond like I am now :crazyeye:

for 4 hours. I'm not planning to continue until tomorrow.

bcool · Dec 21, 2010

Working on a Gandhi war plan

Related Tech Plan and civics
0% research AL for 2 turns

T+0 switch espionage to Gandhi this turn 0% T+0
T+1 switch to Nationhood
T+1 increase espionage slider ~20%
T+2 steal Astronomy
T+2 switch research to Physics
T+7 or earlier finish Physics for GS for 3rd GA with GM from Fish, GA from Pigs
saving 2nd Great Engineer born in Moscow born recently

Builds needed for war
Beijing
T+0 switches build to Trireme and MM to get build up to 49/50 hammers requires running 2 fewer spies

)
T+1 Finish workboat with for max OF (running only 1 or 2 spies)
T+2 continue Trireme build (with steal of astronomy switches to Frigate in btwn turns)
T+3 Frigate ready to move, moves towards 7 galley fleet
T+4 Frigate moves towards 7 galley fleet
T+5 Frigate help protect 7 galley fleet
Hastings
T+0 build caravel
T+1 send caravel next to Mitchum's oasis
T+2 send caravel thru close to NewCastle
T+2 upgrade trireme to Frigate
T+3 send caravel to NewCastle upgrade to Frigate
T+3 send upgrade trireme towards Vijayanugara and the 7 galley fleet
T+4 DoW 7 galley fleet with 1 frigate and 5 galley fleet with 1 frigate land troops

Track movements on picture

Grey T+1
White T+2
Black T+3
Red T+4
Orange T+5

Mitchum · Dec 21, 2010

War preparation looks fine. I don't have access to the game right now, so some of my comments need to be confirmed.

In general, I'm opposed to using the espionage slider unless we absolutely have to because we're generating a decent amount passively and using the slider takes away gold.

In your plan to steal Astronomy, I don't think we get to Physics any sooner because the gold used to up the espionage slider to 20% could be saved and then used to up the science slider by that same 20%. If we leave the espionage slider at 0%, I assume we'll have enough epp to steal it on T+3, right? Or is it T+4?

We also have to agree on what is more important: saving the GE for a future Golden Age or getting Assembly Line sooner. If we're pretty sure we can get enough mongrels for the later GAs, then AL is the priority and we should keep our epp on Roosevelt until we can see his research and just wait until we can get Astronomy in trade and win the GS race later. If we're unsure about getting mongrels or would simply prefer the freedom of switching some of our mongrel cities to scientists/merchants, then we should try to save our GE for later.

I'm uncertain which is better but I'm leaning toward researching AL and keeping 0% passive epp on Roosevelt for now (or switching passive epp to Gandhi if Astronomy is critical to our war plans).

We also have to figure out what losing the Bureaucracy bonus in Moscow does to our research rate because we'll be hiring fewer scientists and getting less base commerce...

SGOTM 12 - One Short Straw

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