SGOTM 12 - One Short Straw

[bcool]

thanks for doing the test on my idea mitchum.

I vote we worker steal and get a cease fire in 2 turns. (Unless De Gaulle has met Rosey and we will get a diplo for declaring on him)

 

[Mitchum]

Fish: Granary whip

Option 1:

T098: 12/28 F +3 F
T099: 15/28 F -> whip granary for 1 -> 15/26 +5 F
T100: 20/26 F +5 F - this is the turn the granary is completed
T101: 25/26 F +6 F (Moscow took over gold, so Fish is now working the ivory tile)
T102: 16/28 F (5 from T100 + 6 from T101 + 5 overflow from T101 = 16 food in granary storage)

This is only +3 food from the expected 13 food in the granary (26 / 2 = 13). What happens if I whip on T98?

Option 2:

T098: 12/28 F -> whip granary for 1 -> 12/26 +5F
T099: 17/26 F +5 F - this is the turn the granary is comleted
T100: 22/26 F +5 F - Fish still needs to work the gold
T101: 11/28 F +6 F (5 from T99 + 5 from T100 +1 overflow from T100 = 11 food in granary storage)
T102: 17/28 F +6 F

So, even though the timing for granary storage is better optimized in Option 1, Option 2 actually has more food because it grows to 4 pops 1 turn sooner. Now to compare the hammers and commerce:

Option 1: 34/50 hammers in galley; 54 commerce

Option 2: 31/50 hammers in galley; 55 commerce

In both cases, Fish will grow to 5 in 2 turns, but that extra food could eventually translate into an earlier pop growth down the road. In option 1, the galley does get produced 1 turn sooner...

So, the tradeoff is 3 H and an earlier galley (option 1: whip on T99) vs. 1F, 1C (option 2: whip on T98).

Note: In both cases, the gold is worked every turn in fish and then handed over to Moscow on T101.

 

[Mitchum]

thanks for doing the test on my idea mitchum.

Thank you for the idea!! It looks like we're going with it for its faster development potential!

I vote we worker steal and get a cease fire in 2 turns. (Unless De Gaulle has met Rosey and we will get a diplo for declaring on him)

OK, that's two votes to go for the steal (bcool and bbp) and two votes against (mdy and mitchum). LC, where do you stand... err... sit? It appears that you're against it, but I just wanted to be sure.

@LC

Are we sure we can get a DoP in 2 turns? What will we have to give up?

 

[mdy]

I'm O.K. with stealing one worker as long as we are certain that we can then make peace with him almost immediately without having to hand over an expensive tech. If not I would be reluctant to take the risk.

Option 2 looks best to me because the workboat will be able to scout to the NE, and delaying the galley by 1T won't delay our settling of any islands up there.

 

[Mitchum]

Here is a picture of the archer situation around Rheims:

Spoiler :

The archer heading east could be at T92? In one more turn, he could hit the road and be very close to our workers by T94. If he gets to the hill, it will be very hard for our chariots to get him.

With all of the fallout between our chariots and Pigs, it will be hard for us to run him down before he disrupts our plans.

De Gaulle only has one archer within striking distance of his worker, so no matter what, we will end up with an extra worker.

So, do we want to play cat and mouse with De Gaulle's archer? We should be able to make up any time lost with our pigs workers with the addition of a "free" worker. The question is, how long will cat and mouse last and how long will it be to get back on track.

Another advantage of worker stealing is that is slows De Gaulle down.

T94 is the turn that worker 3 was to scrub the plains hill, so we will see De Gaulle's archer if he did not go to the hill. The worker can then bail to 1S of the bananas.

EDIT: How bad could De Gaulle hurt us if he has a galley and unloads troops near Fish?

EDIT 2: We build workers in 2 turns in Moscow.

I can go either way.

 

[babybluepants]

How do we even know we'd get peace in 2t?

I think I might actually pass on the steal. Doesn't look like a very good deal. Single worker steals are big in the 2000's BC, when they really unbalance our vs. their development. Here the effect would be only marginal. I'd be more interested in multi-worker steals or instituting a choke, neither of which seems plausible.

 

[Mitchum]

It looks like both mdy and bbp both flopped, leaving us at a deadlock.

I'll update my worker MM assuming that we won't be stealing the worker. I'll swap the two chariots for a market for 4 turns while growing Moscow to 7. If we decide to steal, the only MM changes would be back to the ttwo chariots and a bit of hide and seek near Pigs with De Gaulle's archer and our workers.

 

[Mitchum]

I’ve updated my PPP based on new testing and all of your feedback. Changes are in RED.

Spoiler :

T92

Moscow: settler -> worker (2T)
Settler: Head to Pigs’ site
Work boat: Explore land mass SE; no cutting corners.
Chariots: head west and split; one goes toward Churchill and the other continues west.
Missionary: Attempt to get past Churchill’s archer (move 1 square/turn until the coast is clear) and then head west.
War 2: Explore west.

T93

Fish: GS is born. Move scientists to ivory and lake.
GS: Head to Moscow.
W3: Road/stop the pig resource

T94

Moscow: worker 7 -> granary. Move citizen from gold to irrigated and farmed Rice
Fish: work boat -> granary. Move citizen from lake to vacated gold
Work boat: Explores NE without cutting corners and then nets the clams
W7: Move to hill 1S of Moscow
W1: Road pig resource
W3: Scrub/stop plains hill 1N of Pigs’ site
GS: Build academy in Moscow
Research: 100%; Calendar in 6 turns

T95

Siberia: Borders pop; move citizen from fur to unimproved rice (3F 1C)
Settler: Found Pigs 1NW of pigs resource; set build to work boat
W1 + W3: Pasture Pigs pig
W5: Road Moscow’s rice
W6: Road Moscow’s rice
W7: Road plains hill
W4: Move to deer resource N+NE of Siberia.
W2: Farm Siberia’s rice

T96

W4: Camp deer N+NE of Siberia
W5: Move to Moscow’s copper
W6: Move to silk SW of Moscow

T97

Moscow: granary -> market
W1 + W3: Scrub/stop hill 1N of Pigs
W5: Road Moscow’s copper
W6: Road Moscow’s silk
W7: Scrub/stop hill 1S of Moscow

T98

Moscow: Move Citizen from Horse to GL Farm (which gives us 19/32 food in the basket as detailed in a previous post)
Fish: Whip granary for 1 pop; citizens work fish, cow and gold
W7: Scrub Moscow’s copper once W5 has completed the road
W1 + W3: Scrub Pigs’ rice


T99

Moscow: Grows to 6 pops. New citizen works horse
Fish: Granary -> galley
W5 + W6 + W7: Scrub Moscow’s copper

T100

Research: Calendar -> Metal Casting (heading to Machinery for macemen so we can start our conquest of De Gaulle)
Moscow: Move citizen from grassland farm to silk forest. This still allows us to grow to 7 next turn, netting -1F, 1.5H, 1.5C.
Pigs: Grows to 2 pops; whip work boat
Siberia: Grows to 2 pops; new citizen to camped deer (JIT)
W2: Move from farmed rice to tile 1S of Siberia
W7: Mine Moscow’s copper

T101

Moscow: Switch from partial market -> settler (3 turns); grow to 7; citizens work 2 gold, 2 cows, horse, rice, and copper mine (JIT)
Fish: Grow to 4 pops; citizens work cow, fish, ivory and lake (Moscow took over the gold)
Pigs: work boat -> granary
W5 + W6 + W7: Mine Moscow’s copper
W1 + W3: Farm Pigs’ rice (we won’t use the rice for a few turns, so it may make sense to send one of these workers to start scrubbing GP Farm’s sugar instead)
W2: Scrub Deer E+SE of Siberia
W4: Road/stop 1N of Siberia

Test save on T102 attached.

Comments welcomed. Feel free to pick nits!

 

[mdy]

I would only support the worker steal if we are certain of being able to make peace with De Gaulle immediately afterwards without gifting an expensive tech. I don't understand the AI mechanics well enough to know this, if no one does I would still prefer to remain at peace with De Gaulle rather than risk being dragged into a longer war with him.

 

[Mitchum]

I would only support the worker steal if we are certain of being able to make peace with De Gaulle immediately afterwards without gifting an expensive tech. I don't understand the AI mechanics well enough to know this, if no one does I would still prefer to remain at peace with De Gaulle rather than risk being dragged into a longer war with if.

Sorry. You said the same thing the first time and I read it as a flip... or was it a flop? In any event, if someone who understands the DoP mechanics better than you or me can weigh in on this, it would be greatly appreciated. Personally, I've never had an AI willing to talk to me 2 turns after declaring war on them...

 

[babybluepants]

Even if LC's assertion is correct (I'm assuming it's based on the test file behaviour, rather than calc?), a loose archer lucking out and killing a chariot would throw it off, I think. That's always possible...

 

[Mitchum]

Even if LC's assertion is correct (I'm assuming it's based on the test file behaviour, rather than calc?), a loose archer lucking out and killing a chariot would throw it off, I think. That's always possible...

Agreed. I think we're on the same page here. The risk isn't worth the reward IMHO. A single stolen worker won't improve our situation drastically but an enemy archer lurking around Pigs could really mess up our settling plans in the south if the RNG goes against us.

 

[bcool]

1 worker is 60 food/hammers plus all the extra food/hammers we get from the tiles it improves in its life time.

This is bigger than all the MM we have been doing... The value is quite high I believe... something to at least test.

I have made a cease fire with an AI 2 turns after stealing its worker. We can model the strength of DeG and see if it still works in the test game. The willing of the AI to settle with us is a function of war success right? I don't know the formula but I think it was mentioned in our thread before.

And why would DeG attack a healthy chariot with a lone archer? We would only risk losing a chariot if we attacked him, or if 2 archers were next to one of our chariots.

 

[babybluepants]

And why would DeG attack a healthy chariot with a lone archer?

Because he has a pile of archers around. It's likely that not all of them will be assigned defensive duties. The one on the hill is C1, so it should have reasonable odds against an un-promoted chariot. Probably won't happen, but it's not impossible.

I'm ok with whatever the consensus is here, but lean towards forgetting about the steal. It looks like Mitchum is against, you for, with mdy and myself leaning against. LC will almost certainly be for D), so I don't know what constitutes a decision...

 

[LowtherCastle]

Anyone have an estimate for when we would get Machinery, if we beelined it after Calendar?

I'm in favor of postponing the worker steal for a few turns, building the 2 chariots as previously discussed, and then capturing a worker or more. The chariots on the road should pillage the road, then move 1W. Whenever the worker returns to that tile to road again, the chariots also return and re-pillage. The new chariots' job is to locate and corral the vagrant archer threatening Pigs, at which point, we grab the worker and run. If it turns out that spearmen are constantly lurking, then we postpone worker stealing until we get axe support.

Worker stealing is way too important to leave for Macemen. Btw, macemen cost a fortune. We should have the Herioc Epic built for that, but that's impossible without first getting a level-4 unit. Early warring serves more purposes than just capturing a city. With 4 chariots and 2-3 axes, Rheims is dead meat. We should do that before we get Machinery.

Furthermore, I'm thinking we should strongly consider beelining Literature after Calendar for the Great LIbrary. I'm not sure I see us switching to Castes for quite a while, but we somehow need to generate a couple fo GSes, I would think.

Edit: Looking at Mitchum's 325BC test save, we're pitifully short of workers, imo.
.

 

[babybluepants]

I was assuming we'd beeline Lit next and build TGL... There's no rush for Machinery. Like you say, we simply don't have the capacity to produce a significant mace/cat army for a while. Pestering DG and taking Rheims in the short term would be nice, though, and doesn't really require a massive hammer investment. I'd focus on getting the remaining good city spots and TGL, using whatever spar production we find to get a barracks and some axes.

 

[Mitchum]

It will take quite a long time to research MC -> Machinery. I don't have access to the game on this computer, but you can check it out in the test save. I think it would take about 20 to 25 turns, but I don't remember for sure. Aesthetics -> Literature is much quicker. And we may get lucky and get MC from Gandhi.

It looks like the majority of us want to skip the worker steal right now. I will replace the market (4 turns) with two chariots so that we can put together a proper worker stealing team. I will keep one chariot by De Gaulle to continually pillage the road. The other one will be used to do a bit of exploring toward Churchill. I'll be sure to have him back in time for the arrival of chariots 3 and 4. Or should I just keep the two existing chariots together?

Regarding the market in Moscow, we have so much gold and excess happiness (and getting bigger with silk and sugar) that it won't be useful for quite a while anyway.

I agree that we're short on workers. After Moscow finishes the two chariots, we can build a worker first and then a settler. We can also use Fish as a worker pump after the first galley unless we need it to build more galleys.

While waiting for Machinery (and building the GLib), we can focus on another city or two on the mainland and as many off-shore cities as we can find/support.

To keep this game going, I'd like to play tomorrow if possible. After that, it will be hard for me to play since I have a busy weekend planned. Is there anything else we need agreement on before I play?

One thing I haven't tested yet is the worker actions required to prepare the GP Farm city site. I don't even remember if we still have to scrub the settling location, but I know for sure that we have to scrub the sugar. Since the rice won't be used in Pigs for some time, maybe it makes sense to send either W1 or W3 north to start preparing GP Farm. Has anyone tested the timing of this yet? Will another worker from Moscow (and possibly another whipped from Fish) before the GP Farm settler from Moscow help?

I can always just play to T97, which is when we would have to decide whether to split W1 and W3 or have them both farm/scrub Pigs' rice.

 

[mdy]

I would be more inclined to abandon plans for fighting a war for worker stealing all together. 4 chariots might have been able to handle the archers we can currently see, but by the time we get there he is bound to have built more, and we have the threat of metal requirements.

It looks like it will take us about 20 turns to reach machinery, but we can use that time to peacefully rex and develop our cities. With a forge the capital will be able to build a mace every 2 turns (Quicker with chops), and we will easily be able to whip more in fish city/our new city to the south so we can build up an army very quickly even without the Heroic Epic.

I'm not sure if we will have the spare production capacity to build the Great Library without interfering with our other requirements, (and researching literature would delay our war to destroy De Gaule by about 10T). We can get another GS in one of our cities well before we need one.

I agree that we have no immediate need for a market in the capital. We could build a barracks instead?

 

[LowtherCastle]

Peaceful REX means Moscow has to build 3 settlers (GP, 2 offshore) and workers, which should be at a 1:2 ratio, minimally. Meanwhile, Moscow needs to keep growing, pop9 minimally. I don't see how we can do it all. Something has to give. To me, this is obvious from Mitchum's 325BC save.

An alternative to building workers while not growing is building slaves (=chariots/axes) while growing. We don't need to have a huge army to protect our slave stealers, just enough to ambush and run. The purpose of the next 2 chariots is to protect Pigs from the wandering archer. When the axe arrives, we no longer have to worry about spears. When Machinery arrives, 2-3 maces are already enough to take down Rheims, because those maces have a team to back them up.

 

[LowtherCastle]

If we want to be safer, we could also build a spy to tell us where any metal units are lurking within two tiles of the target road. BUt that would be a bit later on...

-------------

Anyway, if we're lucky, we might even pull in a second worker. For example, if we pillage the road this turn, next turn the worker at 1SE will still be finishing that road, so maybe a worker from the north will come down to build this road. Then we have two workers in play. If we're really lucky, we have a situation where both workers are stuck there, with our chariots, re-building the road each turn, only to have us pillage it... :LOL:. But come ~T98, we can have a chariot on each side of the wandering archer. One turn before that, the chariots pillage the road and retreat to 1W. Next turn, WHAMMO, no more workers.

Then even if we run into problems, we've at least got Pigs defended. Worst comes to worst, we DoP expensive. BIg deal. dG is dead meat anyway.