SGOTM 12 - One Short Straw

[LowtherCastle]

Leaving both CS and Pacifism is a big risk, if both GPs are GSs.

 

[LowtherCastle]

How many turns of anarchy is FM?

At this point, switching one or two civics both cost 2t of anarchy.

 

[LowtherCastle]

Using bcool's spreadsheet, we could run 6 specs in Pigs (no sci), and pop a non-GS at 94% odds, with Pacifism:
T200 1000gpps
T203 1200gpps

without Pacifism:
T202 1000gpps

Of course, we all know about how 94% odds have been treating us lately...

 

[bcool]

Corp costs attached for reference.

I think this is a bit misleading since the cost of the corporation is reduced by inflation it is also then multiplied by inflation, so true cost of sushi in 14 pop city is 20 gold/turn (assuming a courthouse). Then we produce 12 gold in Fish from +200% wealth bonuses
For a net -8 gold for Sushi in a 14 pop city.

 

[bcool]

Using bcool's spreadsheet, we could run 6 specs in Pigs (no sci), and pop a non-GS at 94% odds, with Pacifism:
T200 1000gpps
T203 1200gpps

without Pacifism:
T202 1000gpps

With a 2 pop whip of the grocer in ~5 turns and 8 specialists how much would that help under pacifism?

 

[LowtherCastle]

Another way to think of OR is that not having it doesn't cost us hammers, but rather population. Since we're about to get Sushi, maybe that's not a problem.

Edit: Of course, that only works for large cities. CIties like Hammer City get screwed.

 

[bcool]

one unfortunate consequence of not switching to OR is we can't finish the Kremlin next turn, but I'm definitely leaning towards slavery pacifism, SP, Nationhood, Rep with Moscow going first on the great person just because not getting a non-scientist would suck. And having Moscow go first increases our odds of getting a non-scientist. Since 2 chances are better than 1. Even if the first chance isn't great.

Unless a switch to FM this turn proves to be better based on Mitchum's tests.

 

[LowtherCastle]

With a 2 pop whip of the grocer in ~5 turns and 8 specialists how much would that help under pacifism?

Saves a turn on all calcs, but I"m not sure about poprushing the bank then.

 

[mdy]

I think this is a bit misleading since the cost of the corporation is reduced by inflation it is also then multiplied by inflation, so true cost of sushi in 14 pop city is 20 gold/turn (assuming a courthouse). Then we produce 12 gold in Fish from +200% wealth bonuses
For a net -8 gold for Sushi in a 14 pop city.

I don't think you've included the 25% discount from free market.

 

[Mitchum]

OK you freaks, here is the test game. It's on T191, so you can change to whatever civics you want and see the impact on T196.

Some minor differences:

We are not in a GA.
We are not currently running SP, so workshops are off.
Nanjing is out of revolt.
Tours will come out of revolt a bit early.
We have Modern Armour (for ease of warring for the map creator).
City garrisons were not checked, but I put one in when I saw a city was unhappy and shouldn't be.
We have a TON of gold for running 0% science and building wealth in all cities (for eas of the map creator).
Happiness in some cities is off, but I didn't take the time to figure out why.
EDIT: City builds and food are also incorrect.
Others??

What should be correct are:

City populations
City builds
Tile improvements
Confucianism in the proper cities.
I think I got all of our techs right, but I didn't worry about the AI.

Have fun...

 

[bcool]

Other ideas about the turn set:

I want to explore Stalin's lands (so we can see if he has ICBMs and if a gift and steal of Military science or his other unknown modern tech is possible before he gets more than 3 cities)

 

[bcool]

I don't think you've included the 25% discount from free market.

I think I did.

(4 + 20 * 1) * (14+17)/18 * 1.3 * 0.75 *0.5 = 20.15 gold

(inflation adjustment is divided and then you multiply by the same factor so you can just ignore it.)

 

[LowtherCastle]

bcool, to answer your earlier question about Roosy DoWing us.
1. If he's at war we always see the fist.
2. According to the post by DanF, if an AI's as war, he will not consider rolling the dice for a new WHEOOHRN.

Otherwise, though, he's still plenty powerful enough to DoW us, though our power is well above his. Especially if we're aat war with Churchill. So we really don't want Roosy to DoP Mao for the time being. I think that a better solution that closing borders would be to gift Mao another city somewhere out of Roosy's reach, like that whale island to the north. BUt I guess we don't have the time nor the logistics for that. We can also see if Mao builds another archer before the sword gets there.

 

[bcool]

Saves a turn on all calcs, but I"m not sure about poprushing the bank then.

Yeah we would build the bank somewhere else or is that not worth getting the GA 1 turn earlier?
Could slow build it after since we will be running a lot of merchants here...

Would only have to do this is we didn't get a non-scientist in Moscow if Moscow goes first.

 

[LowtherCastle]

OK you freaks

I'd like to take issue with that. Who said anyone else was?

 

[Mitchum]

Another way to think of OR is that not having it doesn't cost us hammers, but rather population. Since we're about to get Sushi, maybe that's not a problem.

Edit: Of course, that only works for large cities. CIties like Hammer City get screwed.

I'm glad to see that all of you were busy while I was improving my World Builder skills.

I think not switching to OR costs us more than just pop whip hammers. All of the cities that are generating 20+ hammers/turn are losing a large number of hammers every turn. This applies to Moscow (although it is building cannons, so we can forget it for now), Fish, Siberia, Bahamas, Bermuda, Reims, Bananas, Kamchatka, Orleans, Bcool Island and Beijing. Assuming that each of these 8 cities loses an average of 6 hammers per turn and that's a loss of 48 hammers/turn. If we throw in the lost hammers for pop whipping and I can see it costing us 60 to 70 hammers/turn by not being in OR.

I don't know the latest on everyone's GP worksheets, but Pacifism will likely speed up each great person by 2 turns. That means 2 turns sooner from Moscow and 2 turns sooner from Pigs. So by running Pacifism we get our GM 2 turns sooner, which allows us to run our GA 2 turns sooner and start spamming Sushi 2 turns sooner. Is that 2 turns worth 60 to 70 hammers/turn? You tell me.

BTW, I may be WAY oversimplifying things, but it appears to me that OR is better that Pacifism until the next GA.

 

[bcool]

Otherwise, though, he's still plenty powerful enough to DoW us, though our power is well above his. Especially if we're aat war with Churchill. So we really don't want Roosy to DoP Mao for the time being. I think that a better solution that closing borders would be to gift Mao another city somewhere out of Roosy's reach, like that whale island to the north. BUt I guess we don't have the time nor the logistics for that. We can also see if Mao builds another archer before the sword gets there.

If we could get Open borders with Mao, ha not very likely, we could gift him a musket...

 

[Mitchum]

We can also see if Mao builds another archer before the sword gets there.

Or we could gift him a unit...

EDIT: x-post with bcool. I forgot about not having OB.

 

[bcool]

BTW, I may be WAY oversimplifying things, but it appears to me that OR is better that Pacifism until the next GA.

I think it is more like 3 turns, but the problem is if we don't get the non-scientist with pigs/moscow we are forced into 2 turns of anarchy or a 10+ longer wait. With Pacifism at least we could scramble and overcome that extremely bad luck.

 

[LowtherCastle]

Has anyone actually studied the save to see what we need to do to actually build/whip 10 more chs? Because that would significantly balance out switching to FM, it seems, at least costwise.