SGOTM 12 - One Short Straw

[babybluepants]

Ok, sounds good. Not sure we'll have RR in 4t? Note: You'll have to get to 1396-9gpp then get 204gpp on the last turn in Pigs to avoid it beating Fish. That's 16 Artists on the last turn.

 

[LowtherCastle]

When are we planning to steal Steam Power? Next turn?

 

[babybluepants]

Next turn: capture Cant+Newcastle, then CF and steal? I think that's what Mitchum was suggesting. I assume we have the stat discount already?

 

[babybluepants]

And shouldn't we play our game the best we can rather than play to the date we think we have to beat?

If we don't beat them, what does it matter if we turn out to be slightly suboptimal in our GA timing?

I also agree with this, however we have potentially 48 turns of golden age left. Given the rate we have been growing it is a very realistic possibility that we could launch before then, so in future every turn we are not in a golden age is potentially one we will never have until it is too late to do any good.

I agree, it's seems like a realistic timeline. If we start now, we'll run out of GA in 1715 AD. That's assuming we don't get screwed by RNG and have to delay future ones. I think that's late enough, given our rate of development. In any case, I don't think we're even remotely capable of estimating this accurately, so we may as well go for it, IMHO.

 

[mdy]

Note: You'll have to get to 1396-9gpp then get 204gpp on the last turn in Pigs to avoid it beating Fish. That's 16 Artists on the last turn.

We actually have 2T to do this because if fish and pigs can both generate a GP on the same turn, fish will always generate it first.

 

[babybluepants]

Duh. Ok, that's fine.

 

[LowtherCastle]

I think 2popping missionaries is not a good value. In fact, in general, as powerful as Kremlin whipping is, I think at this point in the game, poprushing is only valuable for critical builds. Yes, we have Sushi now, but we also have a short game ahead of us. GP Farm is already way behind in growing it's pop up. If we want to grow it to some max size for starving it, we can only grow it to pop33 by T235, for example. That's far from its potential of pop50.

The point is this: We only have a limited amount of time to grow our cities. Poprushing is counter-productive to working max specialists for our final research push. Let's say we need 10,000bpt on T235, just to get an idea.

10,000bpt / 1.2 research.bonus= 8334bpt
8334bpt / 6b.per.spec * 1.25 library.bonus = 1111 sci.per.turn
1111sci.per.turn / 30 cities = 37 sci.per.city. That isn't going to happen. Try again.

8334/bpt / 10b.per.wkshp = 834 wkshps
834 wkshps / 30 cities = 28 wkshps.per.city. Also not going to happen.

8334bpt / 268pop = 31b.per.pop Also not going to happen.

8334bpt / 10b.per.pop = 834 population. Hmmm....

Anyone see how we going to do this?

 

[babybluepants]

For one, 10k sounds like a bit much. I think 5k is more typical of these games - that's what PK used to say for Inca Marathon games. Rusten just played an Emp Space demo game in S&T, and got 1800 AD with 3000bpt sans-GA from 1550-1600 AD onwards (according to him).

Edit: we may be behind in research compared to that.

Edit: don't really know. I think we max out as cities grow and further infra gets built and see what we get.

Edit: I just checked Dynamic's 1710 AD Emp game. He does Comp-SuperC-FOptics-Fission-Fusion in 10t, for instance, which is approx. 4250 bpt.

 

[Mitchum]

Wow. You guys have been busy this morning.

Next turn: capture Cant+Newcastle, then CF and steal? I think that's what Mitchum was suggesting. I assume we have the stat discount already?

The first spy walked three tiles and ended it's first turn in Steam on T199. The second spy did the same on T200. So, the first spy should have 0% on T200 (the "space T200" sign was my reminder), 10% on T201... 50% on T205. From this post, we need 957 epp at 40% and 797 @ 50%. We currently have 1174 epp on Churchill so we can steal it at any time.

The thought was to at least take New Castle and Canterbury on T+1 (the attack on Canterbury will have to start on this turn). We have the units to take Marseilles if we want to do that. That will get him down to 3 cities and he will accept Steam as a gift after we CF (or we could trade him Steam for his gold...). If we do that, we'll have to make sure that Churchill doesn't settle any more cities. He had 2 settlers running around last turn but I don't see them now. If he does settle a city, we'll have to gift him back Marseilles and then Steam.

So the short answer D) is yes, we should plan on stealing Steam Power on T+1.

I'll work up the Military Science (and Rifling) steal next. Stay tuned...

 

[Mitchum]

8334bpt / 6b.per.spec * 1.25 library.bonus = 1111 sci.per.turn

.....

Anyone see how we going to do this?

This won't get us all the way there, but why are you only assuming the library bonus? I think every city should also have a university, observatory and laboratory making the bonus 2.0 rather than 1.25.

 

[babybluepants]

^^ We get Research Institutes here.

 

[LowtherCastle]

Here's another analysis, assuming we get Steam+Astro+Rifle for free:

Base beakers	135980
Current turn	205
Finish turn	249
Remaining turns	44
bpt needed	3090.454545
b per pop		10
pop needed	309.0454545

We currently have pop 268.

 

[LowtherCastle]

This won't get us all the way there, but why are you only assuming the library bonus? I think every city should also have a university, observatory and laboratory making the bonus 2.0 rather than 1.25.

Averages.

 

[mdy]

We will probably want astronomy after railroad, so the chances of Rooservelt teching it for us in time aren't very good. perhaps we should put our espionage on Gandhi instead so we can steal it from him soon.

 

[Mitchum]

Stealing Military Science from Stalin should be quite easy. Of couse, we need to gift Bing-Mao first and then take St. Nick, but we should be able to do that easily by T+1.

The factors for MS are:

Base cost: 3744 3120
Religion: -40%
Trade Routes: 100% (no discount)
Culture: -50%
EPP differential: 0.61 (current level)
Distance: 1.04

So, it works out to this (stationary bonus - assumes we move the spy in this turn):

(0% - T206): 891
(10% - T207): 802
(20% - T208): 713
(30% - T209): 623
(40% - T210): 534
(50% - T211): 445

We have 263 on Mao Stalin with a current passive rate of +302/turn.

So, we could conceivable steal Military Science as early as T207 (T+2).

263 + 302 (T205 ) + 302 (T206 ) = 867 > 802.

Of couse, we we change our current epp rate by hiring/firing spies, this could be off, but we should be able to steal MS on T207 if we want it.

The alternative would be to only put 1 more turn of espionage on Mao Stalin (565 total) and wait until T210. EPP are coming pretty easily at the moment, so I think we should steal it ASAP.

 

[LowtherCastle]

We will probably want astronomy after railroad, so the chances of Rooservelt teching it for us in time aren't very good. perhaps we should put our espionage on Gandhi instead so we can steal it from him soon.

Which Gandhi cities do we need to capture soon to help us finish faster? Do we really need Astro for that? It seems to me if we start with Madras, then his best cities are pretty close.

I'd rather not pay for any techs (EPs or beakers) that we can trade for.

Plus, if we gift Roosy up to SciMeth, then he might consider the Astro-Physics path. I believe klarius said AIs make their tech decision 2 or 3 lares deep. The free GS for Physics has some weight, I believe.

 

[LowtherCastle]

Mitchum, you're mixing Mao's and Stalin's EPs.

 

[babybluepants]

Edit: Is that some sort of research strategy? Run the cultural slider so you can grow your pop and work more specs, generate more GPs?

Thinking about this...

If we assume something like 1000 base commerce dunno, and average 1.5x beaker multipliers, then 10% science is worth 150 bpt. 10% culture is potentially worth 18 bpt per city with theatre. So, we'd need 8-9 cities stagnating on happy cap and enough turns for pop-growth to pay off. Realistically, it's less, since the cities likely to hit happy cap first will almost certainly have a full compliment of beaker multipliers.

i.e. culture slider seems totally valid.

Edit: xposts w LC

 

[LowtherCastle]

I counted about 170-180 more fallout tiles to scrub. At an average of 5t/tile, that's 180tiles * 5wkr-t/tile = 900 wkr-t / 30 wkrs = 30 turns.

I don't think scrubbing tiles is an issue. More critical, imo, is building workshops or whatever improvements we need. I'd say we only build more workers if we need improvements sooner.

 

[mdy]

An earlier astronomy allows an earlier observatory in our best cities. We also need it to open up physics. In my experience it normally takes too long for the AI's to go down the physics route, even when they have astronomy. It will probably be much easier to make him research the upper branch, and then steal them from him. Additionally we want the physics GS for ourselves to help with our golden ages.

EDIT: We would also want a couple of frigates to protect our transports if we went after Gandhi.