SGOTM 12 - One Short Straw

[Soirana]

No kidding. I tried to make Mysticism work, but it costs too much, unless somehow enough AIs gave them big discounts on that, TW and the others. I'm still mystified by this. Now I can't wait to see their game after it's all over...

Maybe they are doing something out of box - like going worker settler [at size one] while improving gold first.

Sort of going for GLH in second city or trying rex and deep oracle slingshot. who knows....

 

[babybluepants]

*** My warrior discovered the nearby Gandhi just as I finished AH. Gandhi wouldn't DoP. I moved the warrior to the diagonal tile, 2 tiles from his capital. Voila! Gandhi traded AH for DoP!!! I thought of this after re-reading our thread yesterday:It didn't work 3 tiles from his capital, but worked two or one tiles from his capital. Further testing shows that it has to be a land unit on land. A land unit on a galley next to an empty city does not cause the AI any concern...

Nice find! I just tried this with worker-worker-warrior, and it works just fine. Would the other AIs (should we have a different neighbor) fall for this? We should test...

My current test:
SIP
Capital: Worker/Worker/Warrior/Warrior/Library/Settler/Worker/Oracle
Fish city (I made some changes - horse instead of pig, extra forest for chopping): WB/LH/GLH
Tech: AH/Wheel/Wtg/Fish/Myst/Medi/PH/BW/Pott/Sail/Agri/Maso/Math
I oracled MC in 1360 BC this time - it can be done faster with this opening, but I invested in an extra worker. Peace with Gandhi for Wtg a.s.a. our warrior makes it to his capital. OB for Wheel+BW+AH. Unfortunately, GLH is hard to get very quickly. Even with the fairly generous resources I put into fish city, it was only 625 BC. Like we were saying yesterday - the only way to get it for sure is by settling NNE, which I disagree with for other reasons.

Weird thing is he wouldn't take MC for Alpha?! I ended up gifting Math for +2 trade relations, as well, and he eventually offered me the Alpha-MC trade himself. Why is this? He kept going in and out of Cautious for a while, but I was offering the trade when he was Cautious and willing to trade.

 

[babybluepants]

Unusual Suspects:
Settled NNE, researched Fishing-BW.

Ducks @T32:
They hadn't grown to size 2 yet, as that would give them 11k soldiers. I think they built 2 workers. Agri-AH-Wheel fits best. I don't know about a fourth tech, since it seems impossible to get four unless if you start by mining gold. Maybe land score is higher than we think in the actual game, and they didn't even research a fourth? Alternative would be that they are going straight for an Oracle shot, at something like COL (this might make sense, if they found it gives them peace or Alpha trade?). This would mean AH-Myst-Medi-PH before Wtg. Not sure if they complete this path by T32.

I just saw that they played another set. The extra power seems to be 2 warriors + Pop 4. Pop 4 accounts for +15 score --> 145, so 18 points missing. They must have two more techs at this point, which would gives 12, and they'd have their 3rd border expansion included by T47.

Nevermind. LC's Agri-AH-Wheel-Fishing works, right? That would simply mean Pottery-Writing, with +8 further land score, I think.

 

[Mitchum]

I see us having three possible openings:

1. SIP, AH-wtg-(TW?)..., wkr-wkr-library-3war-settler
2. NNE-AH, AH-..., wkr-...
3. NNE-slavery, fish-BW-AH-wtg-..., war-wb(1pop)-(wkr or wb...)

Of these three options, I can't see a good argument for option 2 since it seems to combine the worst of both options. So in my mind, it's between options 1 and 2.

Option 1 gets us off the ground the fastest with respect to REX and research at the expense of early exploration and a fast GLH. Option 2 is a bit slower in the short term and has a lot more early health issues but seems to catch up once both seafood resources are netted. It also includes an early scouting warrior and an extra 8K soldiers from BW, both of which could lead to a quicker DoP with Gandhi.

I'm leaning toward option 2 for the earlier DoP option, an earlier GLH, and better use of our starting area by allowing 2 cities on our peninsula.

Do we need more testing and/or comparisons or should we vote and move on?

EDIT: I posted this before seeing the three posts above, which were on the next page...

 

[Mitchum]

Nice find! I just tried this with worker-worker-warrior, and it works just fine. Would the other AIs (should we have a different neighbor) fall for this? We should test...

Is it possible if the other AI don't have Alphabet?

 

[babybluepants]

Obviously, it isn't...

 

[Mitchum]

I feel like we're spinning our wheels here. There has been a lot of good discussion so far but no decisions have been made. For example, I thought we were in favor of skipping the Oracle and focusing on early REX and the GLH instead. Now it appears that the Oracle is back on the table. This is fine since it is an easy wonder to get, but we continue down this spiral path with no apparent place to get off.

So, does it make sense to lay out the pros and cons of SIP vs. N+NE in one single post so that we can all see where we are, make a decision, and move the game forward? I don't think we have to decide 100% on the Oracle or GLH, but obviously our plans related to them will influence our decision...

 

[babybluepants]

It does seem like we are spinning our wheels now, but we're still finding out interesting options - for instance, LC's warrior-threat move is huge. This is just such a tricky opening.

I was against Oracle CS, since it's not reliable enough. LC brought up the MC sling the other day, so I'm trying that now. I think that having MC or COL is quite good, if we can translate that into an earlier Alpha trade. They are very easy to get, if we wanted to, and no decision needs to be made 'till after Wtg.

No time right now to do a full summary of pros and cons. The one you posted above seems good to me, though AH-first @ NNE isn't quite so bad.

I have been in favour of SIP since the beginning and I'm sticking with it, if we're voting now. AH-Wheel would be my vote for tech. Playing through AH or first worker - take a break - evaluate Demo for length of initial TS.

It seems we're down to just 5 active players? mysty and mdy have stated their preference for NNE, but I would prefer a new opinion based on all testing to date. ZPV hasn't been around lately, either.

 

[LowtherCastle]

I feel like we're spinning our wheels here. There has been a lot of good discussion so far but no decisions have been made. For example, I thought we were in favor of skipping the Oracle and focusing on early REX and the GLH instead. Now it appears that the Oracle is back on the table. This is fine since it is an easy wonder to get, but we continue down this spiral path with no apparent place to get off.

So, does it make sense to lay out the pros and cons of SIP vs. N+NE in one single post so that we can all see where we are, make a decision, and move the game forward? I don't think we have to decide 100% on the Oracle or GLH, but obviously our plans related to them will influence our decision...

To me, where to settle is a very difficult decision. bbp's latest example of SIP, with wkr-wkr-warrior, seems like a good compromise in terms of exploration. I did only one warrior, instead of his two, and that only slowed the library down by 2t, which means it's still many turns ahead of NNE.

One point about NNE that no one's mentioned, though, is that it has four fogged coastal tiles... Just a very hard decision to make...

 

[bcool]

I'll do some testing tonight and see what can be accomplished with settling NNE. If I'm not impressed then I"m okay with SIP.
BBP has done a good job already minimizing the disadvantages and maximizing the advantages of SIP like...
1) Lack of early scouting
2) Risk of Missing out on Great Lighthouse

I'll try to do the same for NNE


I'll try to maximize the benefits of NNE and mitigating the issues with it...

 

[Mitchum]

To me, where to settle is a very difficult decision. bbp's latest example of SIP, with wkr-wkr-warrior, seems like a good compromise in terms of exploration. I did only one warrior, instead of his two, and that only slowed the library down by 2t, which means it's still many turns ahead of NNE.

One point about NNE that no one's mentioned, though, is that it has four fogged coastal tiles... Just a very hard decision to make...

I agree that this is a lot different from a standard game and there are a lot of unknowns. However, our comments and test games are still all over the place. I myself keep swaying back and forth between N+NE and SIP depending upon which way the wind is blowing and who posted last... Is there a way for us to narrow things down a bit so that we can make a decision and move forward? What are the key things we're after (i.e. DoP, GLH, Oracle, REX, etc.)?

Regarding the four fogged tiles, that is a very good point. However, since Erkon has already unfogged a lot of extra tiles to make our settling decision easier, do you think he would put a resource in the fog like that?

 

[babybluepants]

One point about NNE that no one's mentioned, though, is that it has four fogged coastal tiles... Just a very hard decision to make...

Good point. I didn't even think of that... Honestly, I think we can just put a curse on Erkon if we lose both clam and another fish, or if the second city site is all brown fallout crap. SIP is clearly a very valid option here, so I would hope that he didn't completely overpower NNE.

I think the value of extra-early scouting is conditional on both Gandhi's location and his initial tech path. Deciding that we need a warrior in 8t because of this is questionable at best. We can also go worker-warrior-worker with SIP. That's a slowdown in overall development, but only a relatively marginal one I feel.

It's a really hard decision, but I think we've all done enough testing to put up a vote. We'll simply have to do this eventually anyway.

 

[Mitchum]

I think the value of extra-early scouting is conditional on both Gandhi's location and his initial tech path. Deciding that we need a warrior in 8t because of this is questionable at best. We can also go worker-warrior-worker with SIP. That's a slowdown in overall development, but only a relatively marginal one I feel.

It's a really hard decision, but I think we've all done enough testing to put up a vote. We'll simply have to do this eventually anyway.

I agree with your comment about the value of an earlier warrior being highly conditional.

I see the benefits / advantages of SIP and I would be fine with this plan. However, I want it to be clear what we'll be losing by having a non-coastal capital:

1. Later GLH.
2. Later galley = later off-continent settling (if possible) = reduced value of GLH.
3. Wastes Clam tile.
4. Capital does not benefit from GLH.
5. Only allows 1 city on our peninsula.
6. Others?​

If we feel that the advantages (i.e. faster teching, less health issues early on, etc.) of SIP outweigh these disadvantages, great! But let's do so with our eyes open...

 

[LowtherCastle]

SIP is more fun, I think. I like wkr-wkr-warrior-lib-...-settler-Oracle- (Currency or MC). Then maybe settle the second city where there are some forests, if possible, and chop GLH. SIP is a lousy long-term capital, but it's a great settler farm for REX, because it's got a ton of hammers + Imperialistic. But none of this is carved in stone. I just think SIP gives us a lot more flexibility now that we've got the exploration thing handled. We may miss out on circumnavigation, but you can't have it all.

I'm done testing. That's my final vote.

 

[babybluepants]

sip is more fun, i think.

yes!!!

 

[Mitchum]

After having played both options again, I'm fine with SIP as well. The loss of 22 food due to unhealthiness right off the bat when settling N+NE really slows things down a lot, like everyone has been saying all along. In addition, we lose 1 whole turn of production/research/growth due to settling on T1 rather than T0, which puts N+NE even further behind.

Finally, getting the GLH early provides no benefit until the third and fourth coastal cities come on line (or until we get OB and trade routes with another AI). So, getting the GLH a bit later (assuming we don't lose the race) doesn't really hurt us too much.

I'll post a PPP tomorrow to give everyone an opportunity to cast a new vote.

To be clear, the current SIP plan is worker -> worker -> warrior and AH -> Wheel -> Writing, correct? Should I play until the Wheel has been learned or is there some other stopping point that would be better?

 

[babybluepants]

Are we decided on AH-Wheel? That's what I like, but LC was suggesting straight Wtg as an option. How about we just play through AH for starters?

If you keep track of Demographics every turn, so at least we should have some analysis to do.

 

[Mitchum]

OK. We learn AH on T12. I'll plan to capture a screen shot of the scoreboard, top 5 cities (so we can confirm score changes with pop growth), and demographics data for each turn. Turn 5 demographics should give us a better idea of how many land tiles each AI has in its BFC.

I've updated the test save to add the landmark "TEST SAVE" so it is very clear that you're not playing with the real save. I suggest that we use this on all test saves going forward as an added security measure to make sure that no one tests with the real save. I also gave Stalin Ecology instead of Rocketry to keep him from building a SAM Infantry, which will take him 50ish turns to complete.

Regarding techs, based on my reading of LCs chart, with a max of 10 base commerce, we'll only be able to tell if an AI learns a base tech (no pre-req) if it goes from 2 to 3 AI knowing the tech or from 4 to 5 AI knowing the tech.

Fishing is known by 2 AI, so we should be able to tell when the next AI learns it. Mining is known by 4 AI, so we should be able to tell when the next AI learns that as well. The other techs that may be learned include Poly/Med (which are obvious when someone converts to said religion), BW (obvious by who revolts to Slavery) and AH (should be able to see a corresponding jump in soldiers). Is there anything else I should be looking for?

 

[LowtherCastle]

I'll post a PPP tomorrow to give everyone an opportunity to cast a new vote.

To be clear, the current SIP plan is worker -> worker -> warrior and AH -> Wheel -> Writing, correct? Should I play until the Wheel has been learned or is there some other stopping point that would be better?

After inserting warrior into the build schedule, we don't need writing quite as soon. Today I tested agri-ah-wtg-wheel- and it works really well. It doesn't slow down the library, but gets the 20% bonus on AH and unlocks the rice, so the capital can keep growing. The only reason to not do it, I think, would be if we want to keep the CS-slingshot open as a possibility. So we might consider that alternative.

 

[LowtherCastle]

Regarding techs, based on my reading of LCs chart, with a max of 10 base commerce, we'll only be able to tell if an AI learns a base tech (no pre-req) if it goes from 2 to 3 AI knowing the tech or from 4 to 5 AI knowing the tech.

Fishing is known by 2 AI, so we should be able to tell when the next AI learns it. Mining is known by 4 AI, so we should be able to tell when the next AI learns that as well. The other techs that may be learned include Poly/Med (which are obvious when someone converts to said religion), BW (obvious by who revolts to Slavery) and AH (should be able to see a corresponding jump in soldiers). Is there anything else I should be looking for?

At least you'll get to do something mindful during this turnset.

Masonry. Using either 9bpt or 10bpt, we can see changes from 1-2, 2-3, 3-4, and 4-5. Unfortunately, we need 12bpt to see the important one: 0-1.

We also want to monitor when AIs meet each other and G's tech changes (what you said above, but easier to see fishing, for example).