SGOTM 12 - Spooks

[killercane]

Duct builds to libraries. Reinforcements ship 1 goes on to France.

Turn 5

Kyoto produces AC, and France finishes Leos . I change Teoti to worker after some thought (its size 6 w/ 2 resistors still so bad growth).

Ship 1 to Egypt w/ 2 MDI. The other one gets a LB and an ancient cav to take over there next turn.

Spices and 19 gold for ivory from India. G man has 80 gold, I hope it stays there.

T6

Load units in Egyptian dromon. There are 5 Egypt warriors and a spear BEHIND Persian lines with pikes and elite Immos coming after them. They must have gotten cut off.

T7

Egypt retakes Memphis with their WARRIORS. Pretty funny. Troops are almost in position @ France and Egypt. Const has been producing workers all this time.

Scandi is crushing French resistance. I have to move the curragh now to cover our dromon stack though.

Const- can do 100% science w/ scientist so we turn it up.

T8

We lose 2 MDI and LB @ Thebes. Very bad. Thebes went to size 7 and the 2 spears there are redlined. Sorry folks.

T8

Egypt lands an archer at Kyoto. Vikes kill a spear at Orleans. We take Orleans with the loss of 1 MDI. Move troops into Orleans.

Curragh dies to redlined Egypt galley so we cant bombard the archer. Upgrade the MDI and leave a worker for the archer to take.

T9

We survive the archer who attacked the MDI and didnt take worker bait. An AC is produced there. I will hand off to next better player since my luck is terrible.

Sorry about the invasion of Thebes it was an unmitigated disaster.

 

[Andronicus]

Bumber about Thebes, I note it has now gone back to size 6 - no doubt drafted and likely to draft more

We are in a tight squeeze for money

Some options (note many of these are not practicle due to breaking alliances)
Egypt gives 22g + 5gpt for peace
Rome gives 6g for peace (note galley off coast of Con)
France gives 77g for peace
Greece gives furs for ivory + 1gpt or 30g for ivory
Babs give 3gpt + 32g for mono (? also request MA v Dutch) or ivory
Vikes give silk + 1gpt for ivory
Sumeria gives dye for writing
Iroquois give furs for ivory + 1gpt
Carth gives 2gpt +5g for CoL
India gives 66g for wines
Korea gives 6g for mono

I dont recommend breaking any of our allinaces ruling out Egyptian and French deals
We need to consider instigating wars on other islands
eg Russia, Greece and Carth v China (? Arabs too), then pick next victim aiming to get Russian - Greek rule there
eg Inca v Mayans, bring in Otto later (once initial rush of units spent)

If we are to get anything research wise out of the scientifics we should consider gifting ivory (eg to Persia, Russia)

Re Egypt situation
I suspect Memphis will fall again soon and Thebes wll have forces on its doorstep.
? get a force of 4 units to sit outside Thebes and await an opportunity after defences weakened by Persia.

Re Orleans
Is gifting the way to go (civassist lists flip risk at 33.8 - 67.7&#37

 

[Paul#42]

good job in Orleans
How many units did you kill?

Spices and 19 gold for ivory from India. G man has 80 gold, I hope it stays there.

We are in a tight squeeze for money

Some options (note many of these are not practicle due to breaking alliances)
Rome gives 6g for peace (note galley off coast of Con)
Greece gives furs for ivory + 1gpt or 30g for ivory
Babs give 3gpt + 32g for mono (? also request MA v Dutch) or ivory
India gives 66g for wines

If we do trades like this we have to make sure that we are in peace with all civs with galleys nearby!
A Roman galley on our trade route would cost us our gpt-rep! That would hurt our trade opportunities (we need when we reach new era) big time!

I dont recommend breaking any of our allinaces ruling out Egyptian and French deals

definitely not!

We need to consider instigating wars on other islands
eg Russia, Greece and Carth v China (? Arabs too), then pick next victim aiming to get Russian - Greek rule there
eg Inca v Mayans, bring in Otto later (once initial rush of units spent)

If we are to get anything research wise out of the scientifics we should consider gifting ivory (eg to Persia, Russia)

At least the aggressive civs might be more peaceful then. For Persia this is a good idea right now.

Re Egypt situation
I suspect Memphis will fall again soon and Thebes wll have forces on its doorstep.
? get a force of 4 units to sit outside Thebes and await an opportunity after defences weakened by Persia.

Do not attack at size 7. Who's next?
Oops - I'm up
Do we have a chance to take Memphis before x-man does it?

Re Orleans
Is gifting the way to go (civassist lists flip risk at 33.8 - 67.7&#37

Yes, we should gift it to Celts.
I'd sign rop with Celts so an MDI can stay around
We'd have to keep peace with them for 20 turn but I guess that's the time we need to get 10 towns anyway so the loss would be small, right?
edit: The gain could be big because in case of a flip (with no MDI next to it) this might be quite a nut to crack.

 

[Andronicus]

Do not attack at size 7. Who's next?
Oops - I'm up
Do we have a chance to take Memphis before x-man does it?

Well, Thebes is back to size 6 again
They obviously whipped to keep their 2 units defence (now if we could get 4 units over there before they grow size 7 again? - surely we couldnt luck out twice)

edit - the earliest I make it we could get 4 units there is in 4 turns from now to give time for injured AC to be collected and fully healed
btw, curragh v red lined Egyptian galley is good odds

 

[Andronicus]

The threat to our trade routes is if a vessel blockades Con - that coast tile 1N of Con is vulnerable as all overseas trade to our capital must pass through it. (edit. thats another reason to consider peace with Rome, the lack of war happiness could be made up for with more lux)

If we are going to trade resources (and there are a lot of good reasons to do so) we must have a dromon to bombard any approaching galley (could be same dromon as ferries workers) and perhaps an unupgraded curragh to sit on that tile

With trade route able to go through sea tiles, the only other threat is likely to be if a trading partner has its harbours blockaded

 

[Andronicus]

Yes, we should gift it to Celts.
I'd sign rop with Celts so an MDI can stay around
We'd have to keep peace with them for 20 turn but I guess that's the time we need to get 10 towns anyway so the loss would be small, right?
edit: The gain could be big because in case of a flip (with no MDI next to it) this might be quite a nut to crack.

Not sure about the 1 MDI standing next to it.
Firstly, thats 1 less to attack Paris
Secondly, (IIRC) if Orleans flips back to France they will get 2 spears - the second being whipped (and both vets)

 

[WackenOpenAir]

Well, luckilly we lost only 1 at Orleans now that we have only 12 units there.

Un upgraded curragh on the tile at const is not enough for safety imo. If we trade resources, we must have peace with nearby enemies.

 

[Paul#42]

Could I get a screenie of our situation in France?
Plus a list of stacked units with their health status?

I've got a lunch break soon and fear to be bored...

So our reinforcements got lost in Egypt? Or is still something on its way?
Someone bored enough to calculyte the flip risk for Celtic Orleans (sounds like a soccer club )?
Is there a deity-bonus for AI (or penalty for us) involved in flip formula?

 

[Andronicus]

Un upgraded curragh on the tile at const is not enough for safety imo. If we trade resources, we must have peace with nearby enemies.

Agree peace with nearby neighbours (ie Rome)
The idea of curragh was as back up in case a bombarded galley tried to attack it - having a dromom underneath (that had retreated there after bombarding) would prevent blockade even if galley successful against curragh
Once we have astronomy a caravel will be safer still - worth remembering as any sudden dow resulting in a naval unit occupying that space will lose our trading gpt rep for rest of game.

 

[Andronicus]

Brain fart too much , time for sleep

edit - hopefully this is more useful

It would help to have some intelligence on what is going on between Vikes and French.
Is it worth sending curragh to 3S of Paris to observe?

 

[Paul#42]

That really helps!

Do we want to gift Orleans immediately / next turn / not at all?
If we wait a turn we could upgrade the 1/5*-sword there.
But I rarely faced such a flip risk

Pulling the curragh to Paris won't make much sense (I hope) because it takes ~5 turns and by then we should have our Units on the sheep hill from where we should be able to look to the salt hill (or even in Paris ). But just in case I'll send it there

I plan to march on Paris once all units are healed except for a couple with at least 3hp. Till then they should rest NE of Orleans where they are out of reach.

Wow, once we do it, that Forbidden-Palace-ceremony in Paris might be something like the 1871-coronation of the German Kaiser in Paris

Should I send a dromon from Const area with two pikes on to pillage Viking Iron?
Or will we rather look for an easier aim? ~4 pikes and some MDI might be a tough target.
I'd rather chase the Celts once France is conquered...

 

[Abegweit]

Do we want to gift Orleans immediately / next turn / not at all?

France is a culture monster. They must have three times as much as any other civ. It would be a big flip risk whether we gift or not. But I think gifting is a good idea. The flip risk from another civ would certainly be less than it is from us. And, while I don't know, it might give another flip-risk free turn (one for us and one for our buddy). Does anyone know the answer to this? Celts are a poor choice, imo. They are far behind the culture race. Pick one of the civs we are in awe of. India, perhaps. Or Babylon.

Pulling the curragh to Paris won't make much sense (I hope) because it takes ~5 turns and by then we should have our Units on the sheep hill from where we should be able to look to the salt hill (or even in Paris ). I plan to march on Paris once all units are healed except for a couple with at least 3hp. Till then they should rest NE of Orleans where they are out of reach.

Don't wait. Every turn that goes by is a disaster waiting to happen. Go by boat. It's faster. We have two more units arriving in 3 turns. The attack should be timed to happen at the same time. It takes two turns from Orleans so wait one turn to let units heal a bit, then take every unit we have, no matter how damaged and set sail.

 

[Paul#42]

France is a culture monster. They must have three times as much as any other civ. It would be a big flip risk whether we gift or not. But I think gifting is a good idea. The flip risk from another civ would certainly be less than it is from us. And, while I don't know, it might give another flip-risk free turn (one for us and one for our buddy). Does anyone know the answer to this? Celts are a poor choice, imo. They are far behind the culture race. Pick one of the civs we are in awe of. India, perhaps. Or Babylon.

I chose Celts for two reasons:
1. they are close (and distance is a factor in flip risk calculation)
2. they are weak and could be conquered easily. We would simply spare one oponent (unless Orleans flips and we have to take it back from French). I'd rather fight Celts then Vikings at this early stage (just to get 10 towns). When Paris is developed, we might take on Vikings again.
edit: And I don't want to dow Babylon as they will certainly one of those civs still around in the final turn.

Don't wait. Every turn that goes by is a disaster waiting to happen. Go by boat. It's faster. We have two more units arriving in 3 turns. The attack should be timed to happen at the same time. It takes two turns from Orleans so wait one turn to let units heal a bit, then take every unit we have, no matter how damaged and set sail.

Actually it's not quicker by sea (step 1 on board / on forest, step two next to Paris either way), it might be better to join our forces.

by land
+ good terrain (forest, hill)
- two turns on land
(+) our reinforcements landing (spread) next to Paris by boat could at least distract French forces (eg. LB exposed (vs LB still in Paris) after killing our MDI )
+ dromons idle for different task
+ (edit) better view of the Viking front from the hill

seaborne
- open terrain
+ one turn less on land (might not count because they might attack Vikings anyway)
+ injured units can heal on board rather than on land
(+) forces unite

edit: After thinking longer, I even more favor the land invasion. French forces won't attack us on the forest with Vikings pressing on Paris. And on the hill, our defense is better. Anything in favor seaborne invasion I overlooked?
What could our idle dromons do in the meantime?

 

[msch]

Wow, once we do it, that Forbidden-Palace-ceremony in Paris might be something like the 1871-coronation of the German Kaiser in Paris

You won't have that Forbidden-Palace-ceremony for long time after you capture Paris. You'll need to get the Orleans AND both Viking cities and 1 more elsewere. Till then Paris will be mainly a burden you'll need to protect but it won't produce much for you.

 

[Abegweit]

I chose Celts for two reasons:
1. they are close (and distance is a factor in flip risk calculation)

I looked at annares' flip calc. It's actually a pretty dominant factor. It appears that the Celtic capital is about 15 tiles away. The Vikes are 8. If I plug reasonable numbers into the calc, I come up with 5.75% flip probability from the Vikes and 10.81 from the Celts. It says 48% for us which is in decent agreement with CAII.

 

[WackenOpenAir]

Interesting, gifting it to the vikes still makes it a target for france. How is that gonna turn out? Will it work against us or maybe it will make troops move out of paris and give us a chance to take a lighter defended paris ?

Don't forget that paris makes a unit every turn.

 

[Abegweit]

You won't have that Forbidden-Palace-ceremony for long time after you capture Paris. You'll need to get the Orleans AND both Viking cities and 1 more elsewere. Till then Paris will be mainly a burden you'll need to protect but it won't produce much for you.

Welcome to CivFanatics.

BTW, you undoubtedly were unaware of it but you aren't supposed to post advice in the threads of this competition. Technically, now that you have done this, you would be forbidden from reading other threads. I'm sure the mods would be lenient No harm done, though, as we were aware of this. Much discussion has gone about which cities to take. Our current theory is Egypt and Scandinavia.

For a noob here, you sure have knowledge of the game.

 

[Paul#42]

Interesting, gifting it to the vikes still makes it a target for france. How is that gonna turn out? Will it work against us or maybe it will make troops move out of paris and give us a chance to take a lighter defended paris ?

Don't forget that paris makes a unit every turn.

At this stage, AI mostly produce LBs and burn them every turn
I don't think they will draw any more spears out of Paris if Vikings where holding Orleans then if we occupy it.
Of course they won't send any if Celts own it.

Am I the only one to be chicken of the Vikings?!?
However for the remaining game it would feel better to play without berzerks...

The Vikings however would start to quel resistance immediately but they would also have some units to fortify in there making it tougher to take back (opposed to the Celts)

 

[Abegweit]

At this stage, AI mostly produce LBs and burn them every turn
I don't think they will draw any more spears out of Paris if Vikings where holding Orleans then if we occupy it.

Think you're right here.

The Vikings however would start to quel resistance immediately but they would also have some units to fortify in there making it tougher to take back (opposed to the Celts)

We don't HAVE to take it back. Obviously that would be nice but it's not essential. What we need is for Joan to burn.

 

[Paul#42]

Got it. Will be waiting for three more hours however.

What do you guys think, easy Celts or tough Vikings?

If we go for Vikings immediately anyway, I'd rather gift Orleans to them.