SGOTM 12 - Spooks

[WackenOpenAir]

When we disbanded the warriors, we had 6 extra shields. This allowed us to build a spear in 1 turn. Since we felt quite sure our stack is gonna take at least 1 attack, we thought the spear was a good investement to save a more expensive sword from fighting that attacker.

I have just discussed some thoughts with KC:

After we have taken the 4 cities, we should choose between building mostly units and concentrating on a next attack, or getting those cities to size 12 asap. To do this, we could use our capital as one turn worker factory again for a short while, work the new island quickly and join in the workers after the towns have grown to 7 and built their aquaducts where needed.

This may generate much more science than conquest as the new cities are more corrupt, we will need to fight hard for them and we cannot ICS anything.
This requires some calculation. While we first have to build forces to take those 4 cities, this choise requires consideration now as it may affect the plans on how to handle cities we capture.

I have 2 open choises now:
-Build a library after the current sword and then continue swords or delay the libary until we have build our force to conquer the whole island.

-What to do with conquered cities. I expect low flip chances with small culture, and we could take control of the cities and poprush extra units if they have a barracks. This will enhance our combat speed. We could make them start buildig libs and aquaducts where needed. We could do gift them to another civ as suggested. I don't like the gifting idea.

 

[Abegweit]

When we disbanded the warriors, we had 6 extra shields. This allowed us to build a spear in 1 turn. Since we felt quite sure our stack is gonna take at least 1 attack, we thought the spear was a good investement to save a more expensive sword from fighting that attacker.

OK. Thanks for clearing it up. Good move.

 

[WackenOpenAir]

-Build a library after the current sword and then continue swords or delay the libary until we have build our force to conquer the whole island.

Delaying the library costs us probably around 12 turns worth of library science. (estimating 6 more swords needed to conquer the whole island)
With 10 science per turn, that will be about 120 commerce.
Building the library and delaying the swords will probably cost 2 turns delay on capturing the last 2 cities, maybe some delay on the second city and maybe some extra delay on the last city as it could get the chance to produce an extra unit. Counting for a total of about 5 city-turns on our new developing cities.

For subsequent conquest, it should have no influence as we would build the library before moving to other islands anyway. The choise between developing and conquering has no influence as the city would stay full size during the 12 turns anyway.

I think 5 truns on a developping city could be worth 120 commerce, but the library also has the advantage of getting us to the golden age before we lose gpt from deals. This will increase our chances of succes in tech trading.
Therefore, i think we should build a library after the current sword build.

 

[killercane]

The only problem I see with Library is where we will be in 6 turns when we want to enter the MAs. We do not have the gold to trade for the free tech. There is more than 150 gold out there in assorted change. We have 57. That is 200 gold if we really scrounge.

MA freebies will cost us 1250-1440. Lit is worth 392. We still need 1000 gold to trade with. 29 gpt is only 580. Unless we find more gold (500 or so), we are giving up on this idea.

We can only get more trade bait by 1) building a harbor and hoping to trade ivory or horses or wines with Osman for a discount on whatever freebie he gets (or if there is a route to Persia/Babylon/Korea via TGL); 2) getting some civs into golden age and selling them an outdated tech for gpt; or 3) stockpiling gold/building marketplace. Or maybe a combination of the 4 somehow.

Invention and Theology as freebies are both great, Chivalry not so much but useful as we can get Knights Templar built somewhere close.

 

[WackenOpenAir]

If we bring our new city under controll, it will also add gpt, depending on our pop rushing plans, this could be 6 up to 15 or so. I can also get 4gpt in trades. Conquering Aztec cities gives us part of their rich treasury and maybe AI's will produce more gold for us to buy during those 6 turns. All together, that should bring us over 200 gold and 40 gpt.

 

[Paul#42]

Agreed. If the Dromons were in place to drop troops off on the forest, that would have been the best move. As it is, dropping them on the ivory is right.

Ah, I see. The first wave on the Ivory (scare some workers ), then our forces embrace on the forest. Good plan.

We can only get more trade bait by 1) building a harbor and hoping to trade ivory or horses or wines with Osman for a discount on whatever freebie he gets (or if there is a route to Persia/Babylon/Korea via TGL);

With every AI owning just two towns (except Japan and Aztecs ) there won't be much gpt offered for lux - 2-3gpt I guess? But the GLH-thing might bring some more trades that add on. I'd build a harbor after the lib as soon as our conquest is making good progress.

2) getting some civs into golden age and selling them an outdated tech for gpt; or

Nice idea. Who might be candidates? I'd chose two non-SCI-civs (victim and aggressor) because I'd rather not take so much gpt from our SCI-friends.

3) stockpiling gold/building marketplace. Or maybe a combination of the 4 somehow.

Marketplace is so expensive
Maybe with a pop-rush (in three turns as we lack a 80s-building)
That should happen after this or the next sword / library.

 

[WackenOpenAir]

I have just started making some calculations on the plans i posted in post 342. I am not yet ready, and it is now a pile of papers, so i will soon bring you an update with some excel graphs.

About the library, as i posted already, i am pretty sure we should build the library. The extra town we conquer and the extra gpt we trade should make trading possible.

 

[Paul#42]

I bet you already saw that we'd better work the ivory plain instead of the lake with our filled granary.

Marketplace is much too expensive now imo. We'd need a worker to be joined after a 2-pop-rush and it still would take 3 turns to build. That won't help us in the short run and should be postponed for some time.

 

[WackenOpenAir]

Of course i noticed that already ! (thanx for pointing out )

I agree, the market is way too expensive. No market as long as we are running high science. I think we will be running science for the rest of the game. I think a market only becomes an option really when we have so many luxes that it allows all citizens to be working tiles without lux slider.

 

[WackenOpenAir]

Let's take a look at the long term now. The capial and 4 cities we are about to conquer will be our future core.

This game is all about research. Therfore, i am gonna estimate the research we can make from our core over the long term and i will attempt to estimate the research we can make from conquest on the long term.
I am gonna make a timeline for about 150 future turns. Before i do this, i will state some numbers and make some presumptions.


Commerce from core
-5 core @ S12 = 110 commerce after corruption.
165 with libs.
220 with libs+unis.

-5 core @ S6 = 65 commerce.
90 with libs.

-Cap.@12, 4x6 = 85 commerce.
105 with libs.

(newly captured, lib in cap only)
-cap.@6, 4x<6 = 50 commerce.
-cap.@12 = 70 commerce.


Commerce from non core towns
50&#37; corrupt towns.
-bare size 6 = 7 commerce.

-size 12 = 12 commerce.

-with lib = 18 commerce.


much more corrupt towns are only usefull if irrigation and/or food is available to support 4-5 scientists, or 6-7 in Industrial age.
that makes around 15 commerce for these towns.


Timeline A1
-T15, we have enough swords (15 total) and a lib. We now start making workers in capital.
-T20, we captured the Japtec island. The Japtec capitals can also build a worker or 2.
-T30, we have produced 15 workers from the capital, 5 from the other towns and some slaves.
The workers should have pretty much worked our new island as well as our own by now.
The towns have had their time to build an aquaduct where needed, the workers can be joined into the towns.
We now go to 5 size 12 towns. Osaka will be a little behind, but it will be done soon.
The biggest will have their lib ready before aqua, the others still have to produce their lib and maybe harbor.
-T50, Education should now be available. If had theology for free, it was ready at T30 or so.
Colloseums have been used as prebuilds, Unis should be ready now. Osaka and Teoti may be a little behind again.
Our capital has had time to produce about 7 MDI as well. The best of the other towns have also produced 2 or 3 MDI (they should have 10+ spt at size 12), 5 together.
So now, at T50, we have an optimized core and conquest can continue conquest, starting with ~12 MDI and our good old 10 swords.(assuming we lose 5) They may be upgraded.
We now have about 22 units, 60 citizens producing more units and 60 citizens producing science with lib and uni.


Timeline A2
Same as A1 up to T30.
-T50, Instead of 4 universities, we produced 10 extra MDI in our conquered towns. We now have size 12 towns with no unis.
We now have about 32 units, about 60 citizens producing more units and 60 citizens producing science with lib. 12 of em have a uni


Timeline B1
-T20, we captured the Japtec island. The Japtec capitals can build a worker or 2 and we have some slaves.
These workers will be needed to work the new island for our growing cities.
The towns build aquaducts where needed, followed by libs.
-T35, both aquaducts and libs are all ready. Some a little earlier, some a little later. Towns are size 7. (maybe osaka will be behind a bit)
-T50, due to the smaller size, it takes longer to build the universities for the cities that can actually use their size (it doesnt affect the production in Teoti and Osaka)
The other towns had no time to produce any MDI.
The towns on the other island now grow 1 citizen every 20 turns unless we build a granary. Some may now be size 8.
The capital has been producing units for 42 out of 50 turns, only interupted for a lib, harbor and uni. 21 units are produced for a total of 30.
We now have about 25 units, about 50 citizens producing more units and 50 citizens producing science with lib and uni.

Timeline B2
Up to T35, same as b1, but now we build no universities except in capital.
-T50, Instead of 4 universities, we produced 10 MDI in our conquered towns. We now have size 8 towns with no unis.
We now have about 35 units, about 50 citizens producing more units and 50 citizens producing science with lib. 12 of em have a uni

Next is to compare the netto research result on the long term for these timelines.

 

[WackenOpenAir]

Here is a graph for these 4 timelines.
Timeline A1: dark bleu
Timeline A2: pink
Timeline B1: yellow
Timeline B2: light blue

Steep increase around turn 50 is for universities. In all graphs, a university is build in the capital. Only in A1 and B1, a uni is bulid in the other 4 cities.

The little steepening increase in the B graphs around turn 100 is for joining the few workers that were improving the new island.

A possible timeline C to consider would be with no universities and no aquaducts. Causing some of our towns to stay at size6.

 

[WackenOpenAir]

Sorry for the many posts again, but it's to keep thing organised a little.
This one is about Free artisry.

Researching free artisry costs 6240 beakers in optional techs.
It may however help us gain gunpowder for free, so i will count it as 5000 for the investment.

It will help us have 9 more citizens in our core until we have sanitation.
researching to sanitation costs 18800 beakers.

In order to make up for the investment, the 9 citizens should be responsible for 5k beakers out of those 19k. This means they should increase our research from 14k to 19k. This is about 30&#37; increase.

9 citizens in the capital should provide about 15-18 commerce. multiplied by lib and uni, this makes 30-36 science. This is not 30% by far. With both science wonders, they would be worth 60-70 science. This could possibly be close to 30%, but the science wonders wont be there all the time.

Therefore, Free artisry is a bad investment.

Now you guys post a bit, cuz i am planning to produce some more graphs etc and i don't want to beat my posting streak record

 

[killercane]

Ah, I see. The first wave on the Ivory (scare some workers ), then our forces embrace on the forest. Good plan.

With every AI owning just two towns (except Japan and Aztecs ) there won't be much gpt offered for lux - 2-3gpt I guess? But the GLH-thing might bring some more trades that add on. I'd build a harbor after the lib as soon as our conquest is making good progress.

Nice idea. Who might be candidates? I'd chose two non-SCI-civs (victim and aggressor) because I'd rather not take so much gpt from our SCI-friends.

Marketplace is so expensive
Maybe with a pop-rush (in three turns as we lack a 80s-building)
That should happen after this or the next sword / library.

Trade lux for discount on the techs, ie Fuedalism costs 1200 for us, we do 50 gpt (and they have lit somehow), give them ivory since our wallet is a little light. This can only work with Osman and a few others that are close. I think Persia we can trade with w/ TGL but I would be hesitant to do so with war going on.

Hittites, Maya, maybe Inca but I doubt it. Rome maybe if they have iron.

@ Wacken: How small are we dropping the capital per your plan and how much does this effect science? If we drop it back to size 6 building workers then is that not 15 science/turn *15 turns? Graphs look good though, and if you went to the trouble of graphs then by golly whatever you come up with sounds good to me . Edit: Ok I see it in the graph now.

 

[Andronicus]

Nice analysis Wacken

I agree Free Artistry is wastage.

How does our expensive unit upkeep affect your calculatons?
The A1 / B1 options have approx 10 less units - thats 30gpt less costs, but less army ready for our next attack.

Do your calculations take into account some high commerce cites ?
Teno has 5 ivory and a horse it can use, Teot 2 ivory and Kyoto 1
Perhaps a combination of pushing highest comerce cities to size 12 with lib / uni (Teno +/- Teot) and using Kyoto as worker pump after granary (although it does have 1 ivory and 1 fish). Osaka could build units (although looks to be shield poor at least until expansion)
Leaving Osaka size 6 building workers would give an extra 3 unit support - 9gpt.

Looking further afield, Egypt has some nice commerce tiles which with court would not be too corrupt. A war allying with Dutch or Persia might be in order once we have secured Japtec and have troops ready. (Thebes is 11.5 distance from Con cf Delhi which is 11, closest Roman city 14.5, Chicken Itza 11). Memphis might be better served in Persian hands.

 

[Andronicus]

Had another look at the save and came up with an idea that may be a bit loony, but I'll put it forward anyway and see what you think...

Dromon could drop off 4 units on the slave pair capturing them, these 4 units then walk 2 spaces to attack point for Teno
Slaves board dromon, 2 further swords board dromon
Next turn 4 landed swords go to plains ivory, slaves dropped to our mainland, 2 swords dropped at plains ivory, 4 more units loaded up onto dromons
Next turn 6 swords on plains ivory reach attack point, 4 other units dropped there as well
Following turn 10 units should easily take Teno and have force ready for next target.

It delays Teno capture by 1 turn but has an extra 2 swords there and gains 2 slaves this turn who can start improving Con as we wish. It also slows Aztec units who might leave Teot to try retaking Teno as no road leading there.

 

[WackenOpenAir]

The dip in the graph around turn 30 represents the commerce lost due to the capital building workers at size 6.

I didn't do anything with unit support.
I don't think it has a huge effect most importantly because we will be getting gold from the AI and our research can be kept at 100&#37; - lux. Also, I am not really thinking about a larger force to attack with, i would expect to attack earlier with the options that offer more units.

The ivory tiles have been counted for in the calculations.

The highest commerce town (aztec capital) will be one that needs an aquaduct. The low commerce town (jap capital) does not need an aquaduct. The 2 cities in the middle will be using mostly sea tiles. They will have low production and high commerce. I think these cities really should be working only on building an aquaduct and library.

I also think Egypt and India are our next targets. They are close, and both have a luxury for us. They will be moderatly corrupt, indeed a courthouse could be an option there. Possibly these are a good addition to our core.
It would be nice if we could get an alliance against Egypt and take their capital with merely our surviving forces after the Japan war. If we can do this and meanwhile fast grow our core (maybe even include the egypt town in the fast grow plan) we would kinda have the best of both worlds.

I personally don't like delaying the attack on the aztecs at all. Every turn is an extra unit most likely. We will get the workers anyway. And delaying their counter-strike doesn't really concern me a lot. We will have to fight and kill their units anyway. If they had only 2 towns, we could hope to catch their town while their units are on travel, erasing the civ and thus the units as well. However, they have 3 towns so i don't think that is gonna work.

I now started thinking about the long term plans. But i think i can start playing even without getting the picture complete.

For now, i think the capital should build:
Library - 6 swords. This is the same in every plan i could think of.

If no objections to landing on the ivory and attacking asap, i will start my turns, and conquer the first city. The first turn (the safe turn) i will certainly enter as many units as possible to have as little resistance as possible and produce some gpt for the trading. We can then still see if or when we take full controll of the city.

 

[WackenOpenAir]

Turn -1:
land the swords on the ivory plain. Load 3 swords and a spear.
Set a 4th scientist with 1 food deficit to handle the lack of 1 MP.

Turn 0:
Romans demand, and declare, giving us war happiness.
Our swords were not attacked.
Swords move to forest, new forces land, last 3 swords are loaded.
Moving out the last units, we still need 10&#37; lux though.


Turn 1:
Japanese warrior kills a spear for us and our stack is not attacked.
We take Tenochtitlan after killing 3 more spears at the loss of 1 sword.
3 healthy swords move in Tenochtitlan to stop some resistors while it is still safe.
3 swords are landed on the stack.
We meet Scandinavia. They have 30g.
I sell Philosophy to everyone who doesn't have it for 2gpt and most of the gold out there.
I sell Japan Currency for 8g and 2 workers. I think it is nice to have the workers early and in our capital.
We still have construction on them in case we need to re buy their alliance.


Turn 2:
Our spear is killed by a horse.
1 resister is squelched. This brings CoL to ETA 3. Just what is needed to do the MA trade before we lose gpt deals in 4 turns.
Meet Celts. They are poor and backwards.


Now, we have a lot of Aztec units around there. We would like to take the other aztec towns without fighting all those spears. So we need to make a good plan for that. It may include gifting the town we just took to Egypt to retake it later, but we need to keep it for 4 turns now. This is needed for the trade.

Teoti should be the next town we capture, so that Aztecs and Japan stay in contact with eachother and possibly kill some more units.

We could let the big stack move north, wait for them to approach Tenochtitlan and take Teoti. Then, we'd gift Teno to Egypt 4 turns from now and move on to take Osaka.

Their units would then move southward to try and recapture Teoti. To prevent them from retaking it before we have Osaka, we may need to break roads in the north before leaving there, or we may have to gift Teoti to as well.

We could choose a very remote civ to gift town(s). This will cause them to be corrupt and not quickly build units that we would have to kill. Of course, they do have the option of pop rushing which would not be nice.

We now also have the option to build 1 turn spears or archers btw.
2 archers can probbaly do more than 1 sword in the short term, and a new spear could be used to save another sword from incomming attacks. Swirds can probably be upgraded in 3 turns though, archers cannot.

Many things to think about before moving on.

 

[Paul#42]

Turn 0:
Romans demand, and declare, giving us war happiness.

Fine! Who's sharing their island? Do we want them to get their GA?

Turn 1:
Japanese warrior kills a spear for us and our stack is not attacked.
We take Tenochtitlan after killing 3 more spears at the loss of 1 sword.

That was easy. Stupid AI...

I sell Japan Currency for 8g and 2 workers. I think it is nice to have the workers early and in our capital.

fine.

Now, we have a lot of Aztec units around there. We would like to take the other aztec towns without fighting all those spears. So we need to make a good plan for that. It may include gifting the town we just took to Egypt to retake it later, but we need to keep it for 4 turns now. This is needed for the trade.

Teoti should be the next town we capture, so that Aztecs and Japan stay in contact with eachother and possibly kill some more units.

We could let the big stack move north, wait for them to approach Tenochtitlan and take Teoti. Then, we'd gift Teno to Egypt 4 turns from now and move on to take Osaka.

That would be mean
Nice plan
Maybe for a turn or two we'd have to fight off the fast units who will lead their wave because they might approach Teno too quickly.

Their units would then move southward to try and recapture Teoti. To prevent them from retaking it before we have Osaka, we may need to break roads in the north before leaving there, or we may have to gift Teoti to as well.

Yes, usually I'm no friend of gifting towns, but to escape that stack in torrero-style might be the smartest move.
After All, it's Japan's fault not clearing those units for us

We could choose a very remote civ to gift town(s). This will cause them to be corrupt and not quickly build units that we would have to kill. Of course, they do have the option of pop rushing which would not be nice.

There will certainly be resistance or is that quelled by gifting? I don't think so.
I'd rather chose Egypt (or India, whoever we fight next).

We now also have the option to build 1 turn spears or archers btw.
2 archers can probbaly do more than 1 sword in the short term, and a new spear could be used to save another sword from incomming attacks. Swirds can probably be upgraded in 3 turns though, archers cannot.

Archers are also nice on counter attacks. But expensive in unit support. I'd build a couple of each archers and spears alternating.

The attached save seems to be corrupt.
I'll have another try later.

 

[Andronicus]

I also cannot download the save
I can see it in civassist though

I note we are paying Japs 4gpt for alliance with Aztecs. Am I correct in assuming we lose our gpt rep (a very bad thing) if we end the war early (either peace or eliminate)?

I see Babylon has 18g - since we will soon be gifting them to next age perhaps we should sell a tech in case they squander our money?

 

[Paul#42]

I can see it in civassist though

good hint, thanks.

I note we are paying Japs 4gpt for alliance with Aztecs. Am I correct in assuming we lose our gpt rep (a very bad thing) if we end the war early (either peace or eliminate)?

No, that is a pure gpt-trade without lump sum from Japan.
I'm 99&#37; sure we will get no rep hit if the alliance ends.
edit: And I'm 99% sure we won't be able to eliminate the Aztecs during the next 7 turns - that's a combined 99,99% not to trash our rep
However I admit it would have been smarter to give philosophy to them

I see Babylon has 18g - since we will soon be gifting them to next age perhaps we should sell a tech in case they squander our money?

sure.

Any idea what the Aztecs spent their (our ) money on? Embassies?
No upgrades, no rushes, no tech trading...

Why does CA2 (on page trade options) show "0" for workers from Aztecs and Japan and "--" for all others? Because the others never had offered any for now?
Oh, Japan offers another worker... Not worth Construction imo.