SGOTM 12 - Spooks

[Abegweit]

Abegweit, you know you are up, don't you?

I'm not up until a decision is made about the MGL. I'm leaning to saving it.

 

[WackenOpenAir]

TBH, i think we have much, much more to decide on that just the leader.
We will now have to decide our long term plans. Where we want to go with conquest and politics and how we want to develop our empire.

 

[Paul#42]

Yes, i fully understand the FP maths. Do we all ?

I don't excactly, I think I got a good feeling for that but if it comes down to calculating a single percent for one of those two alternatives...

Abegweit, i hope you're not in a big hurry ?
For now, i have to do some real life matters that can't wait. Tonight i will be calculating and analysing again

I did not mean to push Abegweit to start immediately. I just wanted to increase his intensity in analysis and discussion

I'm not up until a decision is made about the MGL. I'm leaning to saving it.

Of course, we can still debate for a while. With the end of our territory curve above the others', it can last some time

 

[Abegweit]

Agreed there. But none of this impacts on the next turnset, which is all about Japan. Plus, if things go well, maybe there will be some preparation for the future, like a couple more Dromons and a harbour.

How many troops were in Teo, BTW?

 

[WackenOpenAir]

There were only 2 spears in Teoti.

It does affect this turnset as we will need to decide how many more troops to build.
-for only Japan we don't need any more
-for egypt we need only very few more.
-for inca + aztecs we might need a few more than for egypt since we have to make a stand there on a large landmass rather than just grabbing a city on a penensula.
-for paris ? we would have to produce some more boats.(i still have to open the map to see if we can actually even reach them in time)

After those troops, i hope to convince you guys of building workers at size6.

And of course, if we decide to attack aztecs + Inca, we would have to get them to war. While if we decide to attack egypt or France, we must find a way to soften up those targets.

 

[WackenOpenAir]

By the way, i think the team is working pretty good.
I prefer to discuss every detail together (as we are doing now) rather than just passing it on and everyone playing it's turns by their own view.

I know many people have daytime jobs etc and don't want to spent hours on calculating and making graphs. I hope you guys aren't bothered by me doing all this calculating, slowing us down and maybe sometimes pushing my oppinion a bit too much.

I hope you guys are happy with the way things are going, i know i sometimes go pretty far with my intentions of calculating and analysing every option. That's why i had kinda quit playing civ..... It leaves so little time for other things

 

[killercane]

I think we are in great position as a team. Good analysis and discussion .

There is NO way we will get to Paris before Musketeers. We simply do not have the boats for this project unless we initiate our golden age. And even then we cannot build 1 turn MDIs, our primary attack unit.

If Paris is in our semi long term plans, we should go east with Egypt, then to Hittites/Mongols or around Babylon directly. Tatu is a nice passage city.

The Maya/Inca island is long (unless that tile 1 North of Chicken Itza is coast, there is plains peeking out there but its not clear whether there is a passage) so east is the more direct route. We should investigate Chichen via galley or embassy to see for sure.

What are the best cities? Egypt is the best, clearly, with lots of commerce. Chicken is pretty darn terrible with no fresh water. Inca have fresh water but not a lot of grass tiles (3 marshes to clear though). India looks to be pretty good land.

 

[WackenOpenAir]

I just open the map. It takes 13 turns to sail to France. (just using the AI pathing, not yet looking at possible improvements after more scouting)
If we take 20 as a deadline, that would give us 7 turns before takeof.
In that time we can build 3 more dromons and 1 MDI.

We currently have 10 attacking units and 1 defender.
If in those 7 turns, we can take Japan and lose only 2 units, we could have 10 units knocking at the Paris gates in 20 turns.

I don't yet rule it out, we could make an embassy in Paris for a start and see what the situation is over there. That would also allow us to estimate the time they will need to research gunpowder.

We also have warriors we could upgrade, but thats quite expensive, it would however pretty much ensure that we can have 10 units over there if we take Japan within 6-7 turns. (wich i think is realistic)

 

[Abegweit]

It does affect this turnset as we will need to decide how many more troops to build.
-for only Japan we don't need any more
-for egypt we need only very few more.
-for inca + aztecs we might need a few more than for egypt since we have to make a stand there on a large landmass rather than just grabbing a city on a penensula.
-for paris ? we would have to produce some more boats.(i still have to open the map to see if we can actually even reach them in time)

I can't believe that we will stop the wars, no matter what route we choose. As for Paris, it's a little hard to know exactly how far it is, since much of the route is unexplored but it's around fourteen turns. We'd never get there before muskets. Of course, if they don't have salt...

And of course, if we decide to attack aztecs + Inca, we would have to get them to war. While if we decide to attack egypt or France, we must find a way to soften up those targets.

Take India too. Delhi should be a prize as the Indians have been decent researchers. And not too corrupt either. There's also the Spanish and the Turks on the same continent.

Egypt should definitely be our next target, though. Diamonds are guy's best friend. Invention to Persia for 7gpt + 17g + War against Egypt?

By the way, i think the team is working pretty good.
I prefer to discuss every detail together (as we are doing now) rather than just passing it on and everyone playing it's turns by their own view.

I know many people have daytime jobs etc and don't want to spent hours on calculating and making graphs. I hope you guys aren't bothered by me doing all this calculating, slowing us down and maybe sometimes pushing my oppinion a bit too much.

I hope you guys are happy with the way things are going, i know i sometimes go pretty far with my intentions of calculating and analysing every option. That's why i had kinda quit playing civ..... It leaves so little time for other things

It's great to watch your mind at work. I'm sure we all agree on this. And, yes, the team is working pretty good.

 

[WackenOpenAir]

I have my mind set at Paris now

Gunpowder costs 1920 to reasearch.
At 60%, that makes 1152 for them.

They'd need 46 science per turn to do that in 25 turns. (they are working on it for 5 turns now already)
I don't think an AI can do that. An embassy will tell.

 

[Abegweit]

I just open the map. It takes 13 turns to sail to France. (just using the AI pathing, not yet looking at possible improvements after more scouting)
If we take 20 as a deadline, that would give us 7 turns before takeof.
In that time we can build 3 more dromons and 1 MDI.

We currently have 10 attacking units and 1 defender.
If in those 7 turns, we can take Japan and lose only 2 units, we could have 10 units knocking at the Paris gates in 20 turns.

I don't yet rule it out, we could make an embassy in Paris for a start and see what the situation is over there. That would also allow us to estimate the time they will need to research gunpowder.

Well, we know that they have 18 wool and that Orleans is size 10. Assuming Paris is the same or larger, which is likely, that means that they can make at least 18 * 2 + 2 * 2 + 5 * 2 = 50 commerce per turn. Minus maybe two clowns each = 44. Assuming that they put 36 of it into science, with libraries that means 54 bpt. Guns cost 1920 beakers. With the AI discount, that's 1152. Divided by 54 = 21 turns. Your guess seems to have been fairly good. An embassy, BTW, would cost 100g.

Edit: crosspost with Wacken. I think you're underestimating their research capability.

 

[WackenOpenAir]

It's been a while since i have seen an AI running 100% science. (In fact, i don't think i ever have)

How about we take the gpt deals from Persia and Babylon. I see the babs also have a good lump sum. You could then buy an embassy with Paris.

However, we first must decide how to make the deal with persia, combining gpt deals with alliances is risky right ?

And then, we will know if Paris is an option. If it is, we can go and calculate if it is a better option than to conquer something nearby.

 

[Abegweit]

It's been a while since i have seen an AI running 100% science. (In fact, i don't think i ever have)

How about we take the gpt deals from Persia and Babylon. I see the babs also have a good lump sum. You could then buy an embassy with Paris.

However, we first must decide how to make the deal with persia, combining gpt deals with alliances is risky right ?

And then, we will know if Paris is an option. If it is, we can go and calculate if it is a better option than to conquer something nearby.

Babs don't have any money but several civs have between 25 and 34g. I suggest selling currency to the US for 30g, which would give us enough for the embassy. It would probably be good to have one with them no matter what we do.

As for risk, gpt is not dangerous so long as we keep our word. Luxes are what could hurt. Say the Romans swoop a galley down the tile north of C. Bye bye rep.

 

[WackenOpenAir]

Babs don't have any money but several civs have between 25 and 34g. I suggest selling currency to the US for 30g, which would give us enough for the embassy. It would probably be good to have one with them no matter what we do.

As for risk, gpt is not dangerous so long as we keep our word. Luxes are what could hurt. Say the Romans swoop a galley down the tile north of C. Bye bye rep.

I mean the gpt and alliance in 1 deal. What if egypt happens to die within 20 turns ?

I suggest you gather some gold and get that embassy. You can save in the same turn and upload here to the forum. What to do with Persia and Egypt we can then decide later. Before we decide what deal to make, we can then also have decided what our future plans are with the world.

If we are to do this, we may have to make peace with the romans by the way. If all our units are out to Paris, we don't want them to be dropping any of their scouting parties on our islands.

 

[killercane]

This is an incredibly risky endeavor I think to go to Paris. Lets assume they take 30 turns for guns. They have had 5 so 25 turns still. Assuming 13-14 turns we have 11-12 to build stuff. We need 3 dromons, probably 4 (for leader, and a pike, and 10 attack units which I dont know if we have). So we can get 4 dromons and 2 mdi out by then.

We have to take both French cities to avoid a flip problem. Assuming 10 MDI and 4 spears in both places, we lose 2 mdi per town. Well maybe it can work if we can get them to war. Are they on the same continent as Vikings? If they are alone we will get slaughtered.

Paris would be a great prize though, guaranteeing fast research from here on out with Colossus and the other wonders there which will provide tourism $$$ at some point.

 

[WackenOpenAir]

Someone just posted they dont have iron, so we will be fighting spears and archers with our MDI and Pikes.
I also just explained that we can have 5 full galleys in 7 turns.

The leader can come 2 turns later with a 6th galley.

Of course, it is still an option and we should look carefully about the investment, risks, rewards and other options. But an embassy can be made already and that will provide us further information to continue the conversations.

Therefore i vote, gogo make an embassy. We don't really need the gold for anything else i think as we will have enough in the near future. (with the 14gpt and the lump sums of several civ's)

 

[Abegweit]

I mean the gpt and alliance in 1 deal. What if egypt happens to die within 20 turns ?

Per Microbe, it doesn't hurt. Besides, if anyone was to take the rep hit out of something like that, it would be the party paying, not the one receiving.

I suggest you gather some gold and get that embassy. You can save in the same turn and upload here to the forum. What to do with Persia and Egypt we can then decide later. Before we decide what deal to make, we can then also have decided what our future plans are with the world.

OK. Sold cur to Abe as I suggested.

Sure is a beautiful city.

Why does the wool brings in 3 commerce? If you right-click on the tile it's only two.

There's no library yet. I checked. You see all the buildings they own. The rest of the stuff in the list is all wonders.

Looks like my estimate of their commerce was even low but that they are drowning in maintenance and unit costs. It will be a long long time before they get to guns.

Anyway. Calculations. Orleans should have the five wool we don't see and be making 5 * 3 + 7 * 1 + 5 *1 = 27 commerce * 40 % = 11. It probably has its lib by now. Thats 16. At best, Paris will get its lib five turns from now at which time its science will go up to 29 (28?).

(16 + 19) * 10 = 350. (1152 - 350) / (16 + 29) = 18.

So their best shot at guns at 28 turns of science, five of which they already have under their belt.

edit: miscalculation on Orleans. It could have as many as 7 wool and a silk.

7 * 3 + 1 * 4 + 2 * 1 + 5 * 1 = 32 or 19 bpt with a lib.

Plugging those numbers in gives 26 turns. Pretty close to your guess, Wacken

 

[WackenOpenAir]

Those 3 shields per tile, are they in GA or is that the sheep doing that ?

Sure looks like a nice thing to have

Edit: Just checked the resources. It's the wool, what a nice resource that is
They must have had their golden age already with pyramids and collosus.
So no risk of them getting a GA with wonders and speeding up the research.
The third commerce is the collosus.

If we are to take them, we must start the war with their neighbours not too early, or they would burn their units and maybe upkeep cost is reduced and research speed increased. (.. one moment you try to make them research, the other you want to slow them down )
This is the big risk for us in fact. If they get into war too early, their research could skyrocket.
What tools do we have to NOT make them go to war for 15 turns ?

Does Gyathaar come from Paris or something ?

Orleans cannot have 7 wool, 13 are visible in your picture, so thats 5 max.

 

[Abegweit]

They must have had their golden age already with pyramids and collosus. So no risk of them getting a GA with wonders and speeding up the research.

Yeah. It started at turn thirty two.

The third commerce is the collosus.

Ahhh. Of course. Purty l'il thang, ain't it?

If we are to take them, we must start the war with their neighbours not too early, or they would burn their units and maybe upkeep cost is reduced and research speed increased. (.. one moment you try to make them research, the other you want to slow them down )

Yep.

Orleans cannot have 7 wool, 13 are visible in your picture, so thats 5 max.

They have nineteen wool. Check the pic. But you're right. I miscounted now. So it can have six. And since a wool is only worth 2 cpt to Orleans, the proper count of its beakers is 6 * 2 + 1 * 4 + 3 * 1 + 5 * 1 = 24 or 14 bpt with a lib.

 

[Abegweit]

Couple of points:

Distances to Paris:
Orleans 5
Bergen 6
Trondheim 11
New York 14
Washington ~18
The closest Celtic city would have be at least 15 away. Interestingly CRPRings tells me where New York is although the game doesn't.

Teno can add a troop to the cause before the ships set sail. Something could be whipped out of Teo as well.