SGOTM 12 - Spooks

[Abegweit]

When we tested earlier, there were civ's who did not pay the full sum.

Which civs were these?

 

[WackenOpenAir]

I have no idea, that information is somewhere in 53 pages of posts.... (shortly after we found out something was wrong with our reputation, don't know when that was)

I will calculate some more on those cities you mentioned, i don't think you need that for your last 4 turns, so i am gonna take my time

 

[Abegweit]

Sure, bring in someone else against the Mongols. Still, we need some defences. I see we have 5 units at paris now, maybe bring one to Orleans instead

Actually our units in France are all near Orleans. The two we had were moving up and down the coast monitoring Mongol and Spanish shipping and the other three just landed. I'll move them to the cities.

and maybe we need 1 or 2 more units on the Japtec island. I think we can transport 2 back from Portugal.

There is exactly one unit in all of Portugal and India. He's off fighting barbs right now. I don't think we have any spare units until the wars are over.

 

[WackenOpenAir]

Oh yeah, i meant to move one to Trontheim. Somehow, i always type different things than i want to.

Those units are on their way to Spain i see. Dunno how many we need for those 2 cities, if we could spare 2 for home, that would be nice.

 

[Abegweit]

I have no idea, that information is somewhere in 53 pages of posts.... (shortly after we found out something was wrong with our reputation, don't know when that was)

I found the discussion. Andro mentioned mentioned that our rep was damaged with the Babs and the Iros and that everything else appeared normal. No additional info there.

 

[Abegweit]

Those units are on their way to Spain i see. Dunno how many we need for those 2 cities, if we could spare 2 for home, that would be nice.

I'll ship some of the wounded back home, both for Indugal and Japtec. I doubt they'll recover in time to see action anyway. Instead they can heal on the boats, which will be additional protection for the home countries.

 

[WackenOpenAir]

If you are gonna make war on Russia, I think you should just buy all scientifics against them. No reason not to be safe rather than sorry.

 

[Abegweit]

If you are gonna make war on Russia, I think you should just buy all scientifics against them. No reason not to be safe rather than sorry.

That would cost 156 for embassies with the Koreans, Germans and Ottos.

Here's some other tests.

We know our rep is damaged with the Babs. They will give 3g for 1gpt but not 4. Germans, Ottos and Koreans will give 7, 7, and 5 respectively. Should be OK.

Persians are insulted by Alliance against the Mongols for 13g. 14g or 1 gpt raises it to doubtful. Seems good.

I can't figure out a test for the Sumerians. However, they don't know the Russians or anyone who is likely to know them. We couldn't take them to war if we wanted to.

The two other scientifics are the Greeks and Russians, who are already at war.

In sum, the advantage of war with the Russians is that the Babs will give us full price. The disadvantage is that we can't get the Russian free tech. As the first civs we bring into the new age will be the backward ones, not Russia and Babylon, I conclude that there is no reason for war.

 

[Paul#42]

I did some analysis on how to get the techs best.

Here's a pic of the SCI civs (without Russia):

Spoiler :

Order of donation
Assuming it is three independent blocks, it seems best to me to alternate between these blocks of civs that seem to know each other.
I'd start gifting up Sumeria (most backward), then Korea, then Greece.
Then (if necessary) Ottomen, Germans, Babs, Persia.

When to buy
I think best buy is when one of each group got his free tech. While it's cheaper for us if two got the same, it still has good value to all other civs.

Get even
We should stop as soon as we got all three 1st tier techs. Sell Medicine or Steam to get back our gpt (not Nationalism if possible).

Watch out
IIRC Baby, Ottomen and Persia have been in the race for Sistines' for some time (see Andro's comment). Though the window to finish Sistines' is just three turns wide, we should try to not let them get ToG. If one of them finishes it, most likely a cascade would rob us Newton's the very next turn as it's 200 shields cheaper...

However getting the 4th free tech has higher priority imo.

edit:

In sum, the advantage of war with the Russians is that the Babs will give us full price. The disadvantage is that we can't get the Russian free tech. As the first civs we bring into the new age will be the backward ones, not Russia and Babylon, I conclude that there is no reason for war.

Good conclusion. Anyway we should still be able to dow Russia if we find out that Babs are the only civ to get Steam while all others have Medicine and we got no chance to buy Steam...

 

[Andronicus]

Watch out
IIRC Baby, Ottomen and Persia have been in the race for Sistines' for some time (see Andro's comment). Though the window to finish Sistines' is just three turns wide, we should try to not let them get ToG. If one of them finishes it, most likely a cascade would rob us Newton's the very next turn as it's 200 shields cheaper...

However getting the 4th free tech has higher priority imo.

My conclusions in that post were that Nineveh should build Sistine somewhere between turns 151 to 157. It is now turn 157 so Sistine should complete soon - almost certainly before Paris completes Newtons.
The risk is whether Pasagardae has accumulated 240 shields before Paris completes in 4 turns. We know it was wonder building 23 turns ago - that gives it 26 turns to beat us.
Newtons in size 20+ Paris would be very valuable. Is gifting Persia to next age to get its freebie (which may be same as others) worth potentially throwing away Newtons in our super science city? I dont think so.

 

[Abegweit]

Good point about Newton's. I missed the implications of Andro's first post. It would be a disaster to lose it. Actually I think losing it would be worse than losing out on the second-tier tech, although it's worth taking the risk.

Let's take a closer look.

Otto's: no danger. They are building it in a crap city. Size 2 and must have some corruption. Makes maybe 4-5 spt.
Baby: some power there. Lessee... maybe 11-12 spt. Definitely to be avoided.
Persia: we don't know anything about Pasargadae but it appears to be in a fairly good location. Also to be avoided.

Even more reason against war with the Russians. We don't want to trade with the Babs.

Thanks for the graphic showing the three groups, BTW. For some reason those lines don't show up on my computer.

Edit: cross-post with Andro. So gifting the Persians is actually more dangerous than gifting the Babs? Good to know. They are the one civ I will not be dealing with. And we agree about the need for Newton's.

Edit2: I plan to finish off tomorrow EDT. Probably in the morning but maybe the aft (I will be occupied half the day - I expect it to be the afternoon but don't know yet). Since no one has commented on these things, my plans remain to gift Barcelona to Alex and disband a caravel in France. Actually, since the ferries haven't done much recently, one should be disbanded in the homelands too.

 

[Andronicus]

Another option is to spend 96g investigating Nineveh - if it going to complete in the next 2 turns we could delay research those 1 or 2 turns saving money to research faster later.
I believe the probability is high that it completes Sistine soon - my original prediction was next turn at the latest.
I dont see how Nineveh could be making less than 10spt, the only reason for later completion would be if they delayed the start. Usually AI will start wonder at next opportunity (ie as soon as its current build completed).

Options appear to be
a) risk it and research to IA next turn and gift all scientific AIs (I think this will lose Newton's)
b) research to AI next turn but dont gift Persia up (miss out on Persia's freebie, risk of others eg Babs trading ToG with them - unlikely?)
c) delay research till Sistine built and cascade collapses (delays science, delays steam and RRing - what if takes 4 turns?. Money saved can be used later)
d) investigate Nineveh for 96g -> a) if safe, otherwise b) or c)

I think I lean to b) as Abegweit suggested, but d) appeals also

 

[WackenOpenAir]

Losing a tech costs around 5k beakers.
Losing Newtons will cost roughly the same over time or slightly more.

We should not risk losing Newtons. If no other safe solution is found, i rather wait 5 turns now than lose out on it. The first 3 turns won't even delay sanitation, only RR.

Teoti and Osaka still need to finish their hospitals, don't take away all their production yet.

 

[killercane]

Well we only need to trade for Steam and Medicine, there might not be a need even to gift Persia up. If they end up being the last AI and we dont have a tech at that point odds are not good that we would get it anyway.

 

[WackenOpenAir]

I don't really care a lot what you guys are planning with those IA techs. Chances for a usefull extra tech are not very big anyway.

Just don't risk Newtons in any way !

 

[Andronicus]

Well we only need to trade for Steam and Medicine, there might not be a need even to gift Persia up. If they end up being the last AI and we dont have a tech at that point odds are not good that we would get it anyway.

Does it make a difference (other than we might get commie instead of Nationalism) whether we trade for nationalism before getting our free tech?
Are the odds of each avail tech equal? Or are they weighted with respect to beaker cost?


PS
I note Teno can build harbour in 1 turn if works ivory plain and horse hill
Also Russia has a slave for sale (? for astronomy)
Remember we can get a better deal with weaker nations (eg Sumeria, Greece, Korea - actually all are weak) if we tie in a renegotiate peace with our age change trades. This could save us quite some gpt.

 

[killercane]

Trading for Nationalism makes the chances slightly worse since you open up Communism AND good old Fascism. Odds are supposed to be equal for everything.

 

[Abegweit]

I think the best answer is to simply wait until Sistine's is finished. It must happen within a couple of turns.

 

[killercane]

Go ahead and trade the others and leave Persia last. I think that surely the others will get our techs. Even if we only get say Steam we still have a chance to get something useful.

 

[WackenOpenAir]

chances are not equal. If there still is a first tier tech, i don't think we will get a second tier tech for our free tech.

Therefore, i think we must get all 3 first tier techs from the AI, and then 3 out of the 6 possible second tier techs are usefull for us.

With 7 AI's, chances to get all 3 first tier techs are pretty reasonable i think.