SGOTM 12 - Spooks

I think you're wrong, Wacken
DaveMcW said:
If you trade for Steam Power and Medicine at the start of the industrial age and ignore Nationalism, you increase your chances of getting a required tech from 2/6 to 2/5.
In our case, it would be a desired tech from 3/6 to 3/5.
 
No chances are definitely equal for Conquests. For example, you can get Theology as a freebie only knowing Mono and Feudalism about the same amount of times as you get Engineering/Chivalry. You can get Industrialization only knowing Steam Power. I havent done a study but chances are equal in my experience. If chances were not equal, and weighted toward first tier techs, you would always get Ironclads.

Not taking Nationalism means we have a 60% chance of something good. Taking Nationalism means we only have 50% chance.

Edit: Cross post with Abegweit.
 
ok, then gogo get those 2 techs and don't lose Newtons. I would probably wait a few turns, 2-3 turns is not really a loss, it won't affect the research of Sanitation. The only loss there would be that our workers can't make RR yet in those turns.
 
OK. I finished my turns. I haven't played anything at all in the last round. Warning: some workers are fortified and the Dromons are all on goto. Also Opporto needs MM next turn.

A bit of bad luck on the Age Change as we still don't know Medicine. The AIs all drew Steam and Nationalism. OTOH, our free tech was Industrialization :) It certainly could have been worse.

Iron Works is possible in Constantinople.

Spoiler :

Turn 7 420 AD

Gift Barcelona to Alex
Turn off science

[inter-turn]
Ivory wool and spices to Abe for 11 gpt
Opporto worker -> lib
Teno harbour -> bank
Ninevah completes Sistine’s :goodjob: Andronicus

Turn 8 430AD
Wait one more turn on science as Persia is still building Sistine’s

[inter-turn]
Spanish land two troops at Paris.
Orleans worker -> lib

Turn 9 440 AD
Battle for Athens
Dromons take off 2 HP
5/5 MDI vs 3/3 spear -> 4/5 MDI
4/4 MDI vs 3/3 spear -> 3/4 MDI
5/5 sword vs 1/3 spear -> 3/5 sword
4/4 MDI vs 1/5 MH -> 3/4 MDI and the city is taken.

At Paris
3/3 MDI vs 3/3 spear -> 2/4 spear
5/5 AC vs 3/3 sword -> 3/5 AC
5/5 AC vs 2/4 spear -> 4/5 AC

In Spain
13/13 Army vs 4/4 spear -> 12/13 Army
6/6 AC vs 3/3 sword -> 4/6 AC and a leader! Unfortunately I can’t make an army.
12/13 Army vs 3/3 horse -> 12/13 Army

Turn science back on

[inter-turn]
Koreans draw Nationalism
Sumeria draws Steam
Greeks draw Steam
Germans draw Steam
Ottos draw Steam
Persians draw Nationalism
Babs draw Nationalism
Russians draw Steam :(
3 luxes, Monarchy, Chivalry and 70 gpt to Sumeria for Steam
Steam and Chivalry to Korea for Nationalism
Nationalism to Sumeria for 67 gpt.

Get the Iron Works message
And our free tech is Industrialization
 
:)

Impressive bad luck on Medicine :ack:

But real luck on Industrialization! :banana:
Good decision to acquire Nationalism. :thumbsup:

Did you miss to submit the save? It's not recorded yet... :hmm:
 
I don't think i understand the joy about industrialisation. All our prebuilds for hospitals are due early now. We should expect Sanitation in 14 turns now.

Teno:
reducing production and increasing food, we still have 70 excess shields to waste. We could spend this on a granary, boat or on a knight. A granary could be usefull when everything is irrigated. A unit would cost us support.

Teoti:
Is about to lose a production to Irrigation. This will make the Hospital finish in 15 turns.

Osaka:
We irrigate the forest and stop using the hill. This brings the hospital to 20. We start using the hill later again to bring it down to 15.

Kyoto:
Can make anything that finishes next turn. Same story as for Teno.

Thebes:
We are far into the build and we do not have the ability to build anything else first. We can't reduce the production enough without harming commerce. The only solution would be to waste shields now by swiching to a knight or maybe even something 60s and then moving back to producing the bank.

Delhi:
Same story as Teno and Kyoto. We can however stop producing the mountains and grow food. More food than we can handle though, 2 extra citizens.

Bombay:
Stop using the hill.

Paris:
needs 5 turns for the hospital. 2 more for newtons. leaves 8 turns to produce something 240 shields max. A factory comes to mind, or units.....


Constantinopel:
Growing to size 20 would provide 28 extra raw commerce for 56bpt. Add some scientists and this town could produce 80 more bpt than it does now.
Every worker we make and immeadiately join in another good city is worth about 3bpt. The payback time is 27 turns. It is worth building workers until the cities we join them in would max out by their own growth in less than 27 turns.

our core cities (5 town core, india, egypt, paris) together would need about 75 extra population to reach size 20 each. Extra citizens are all worth 3bpt as well though in these cities. Another 50 or so will be worth 3bpt as scientists. That is 125 needed population for 3bpt each.

In our farms, citizens are worth only 1.5 bpt since we need 1 for making food and 1 for being scientists before we get anything. That is anouther 100 or so population, but these are not worth being produced in productive cities.

Of those 125 population worth 3bpt, we can expect part to grow in the cities themselves. With irrigation, we should get most cities to 3-4 turn growth after size 12. Still, it wouldnt hurt to have some 75 workers to join. We have 44 now.

Const can keep producing workers for at least the comming turnset, after that we can evaluate again.
 
Well no medicine is better than drawing Fascism :). Does this mess up timing of the hospitals :confused:?

Do we need factories anywhere other than Paris and Constantinople?
 
I don't think i understand the joy about industrialisation. All our prebuilds for hospitals are due early now. We should expect Sanitation in 14 turns now.

Teno:
reducing production and increasing food, we still have 70 excess shields to waste. We could spend this on a granary, boat or on a knight. A granary could be usefull when everything is irrigated. A unit would cost us support.

Teoti:
Is about to lose a production to Irrigation. This will make the Hospital finish in 15 turns.

Osaka:
We irrigate the forest and stop using the hill. This brings the hospital to 20. We start using the hill later again to bring it down to 15.

Kyoto:
Can make anything that finishes next turn. Same story as for Teno.

Thebes:
We are far into the build and we do not have the ability to build anything else first. We can't reduce the production enough without harming commerce. The only solution would be to waste shields now by swiching to a knight or maybe even something 60s and then moving back to producing the bank.

Delhi:
Same story as Teno and Kyoto. We can however stop producing the mountains and grow food. More food than we can handle though, 2 extra citizens.

Bombay:
Stop using the hill.

Paris:
needs 5 turns for the hospital. 2 more for newtons. leaves 8 turns to produce something 240 shields max. A factory comes to mind, or units.....
As I said, I did almost nothing in this turn. Only MM'ing Opporto. We all expected Medicine to come in. It didn't. Yes. Several builds need to change in consequence. So the MM of the rest is up to KC.

As for Industrialization, the good news is getting a useful - and expensive - tech. Obviously we were very unlucky not to get Medicine.
 
For the next turnset, i guess we can expect Spain to turn into Greek hands and The Iroqios to be ours.

We have very little troops on the southern island though. Our 2 armies should i guess be capable of conquering the Iroq cities with healing in between them, but we cannot declare on greece to retake our spanish cities while we have no units to protect our properties on the southern island.

However, i did make a mistake in one of my former posts. Scientists are not counted to the population for happiness purposes. So we should have more happiness than i anticipated, and we should have more freedom with the whip. Maybe we could even draft a unit or 2 if needed. 1 draft when mecca grows size 7 would be of help to protect the eastern side of Athens while the armies fight on the western side.

I can look into the future happiness issues for our farms again later. May be after the weekend though.

And of course, the workers won't have trouble keeping themselves occupied for the comming 15 turns.
 
BTW, if Greeks do not yet have nationalism, we should gift steam to everyone so that the greeks don't have anything to offer for nationalism. We can't find any AI with nationalism for the comming 50 turns.

And to prevent 4 posts in a row, i'll edit:
Great leaders may be usefull to build hospitals or other expensive stuff in cities that have difficulties building them on their own. What cities would need this most i do not yet know. Either the best of our farms, or one of those portugese cities that can just be productive at high corruption levels.
 
I don't think i understand the joy about industrialisation. All our prebuilds for hospitals are due early now. We should expect Sanitation in 14 turns now.

I am not so pessimistic

Medicine is 4000 beakers, sanitation 3600 beakers

Currently producing 606bpt, this can be increased to 631bpt by using coastal tiles in Paris (1), Thebes (3), Teno (5), Kyoto (5), Osaka (1) and Bombay (1) - more are possible but these generally slow current builds down where that is needed.
In 2 turns Newtons completes - I calculate this to be an extra 76bpt

So 631 *2 = 1262
631+76 (704) * 4 = 2816 -> 4090 and comfortable 6 turn medicine
At 704 bpt hopefully this can be inflated to 720 to give 5 turns to sanitation

This would give hospitals in 11 turns
The other factor would be finding the gold to support 100% science run for 11 turns (may be that last turn on medicine is only 90% science) - we are currently about 700g short, at worst that would cost us 2 turns

Looking at money avail - only Iroquois have sig gold (64) but there are gpt options avail
Germany 6gpt for monarchy
Greece 6gpt for 2 lux (depends on our war plans)
America 12gpt + 18g for chivalry or guns (makes them more dangerous near Paris, but a rifle would provide us with security)

agee with Wacken's plan to prevent Greece trading for Nationalism (edit - obviously the gifting would only be to those AI who have Nationalism but lack Steam - that is Persia and Babylon)
 
America 12gpt + 18g for chivalry or guns (makes them more dangerous near Paris, but a rifle would provide us with security)
Rather offer Guns, this opens less dangerous techs to offer later.
agee with Wacken's plan to prevent Greece trading for Nationalism (edit - obviously the gifting would only be to those AI who have Nationalism but lack Steam - that is Persia and Babylon)
Yep.

:eek: I see lot's of Koreans in Portugal :eek:

Is it to late to ally them against Spain to "reduce unit upkeep" for our Korean friends? Or should we rather direct them to south against Incas or Mayas, accelareted with rop and rails? It always bothers me to have such a stack near my unprotected towns... :shifty:

edit: Did we not agree to ally Persia against Mongols? :confused:
 
:eek: I see lot's of Koreans in Portugal :eek:

Is it to late to ally them against Spain to "reduce unit upkeep" for our Korean friends? Or should we rather direct them to south against Incas or Mayas, accelareted with rop and rails? It always bothers me to have such a stack near my unprotected towns... :shifty:

I suspect they are attracted to a barb camp in the fog (there was a barb in Abegweit's last save) like moths to a light.
MA v Spain sounds good, but we dont have embassy nor anything but industrialism to trade for MA.

edit: Did we not agree to ally Persia against Mongols? :confused:

I think Persia + Babs v Monguls is worth doing - perhaps limked to gifting of steam.

Also need reinforcements to deal with Iroquois pike near Mecca - they might only pillage but could be problems if they have a friend.
 
We can't declare on Greece for 12 more turns because we sold them a lux for 2gpt.

In that case is it worth delaying an extra 8 turns by selling them 2 lux now for 6gpt? (We also have alliance v Iroquois for 11 turns).
If it helps shave a turn off getting sanitation (and therefore hospitals), I suspect the gain is greater than dowing Greece in 12 turns and getting Barcelona +/- Sparta 8 turns earlier

If we play a passive role in southern continent (ie withdraw from vicinity of Niagra Falls) then hopefully Iroquois go for and capture Sparta allowing us to then take it from them. We need only protect our interests there for the present - if we leave MDI to protect Athens it becomes a juicy target for mounted warriors. Hopefully there are no MWs en route to Mecca - our gfalleon could get reinforcements there in 4 turns
 
I suspect they are attracted to a barb camp in the fog (there was a barb in Abegweit's last save) like moths to a light.
I think you are right. Could we take out that barb camp? 25g are quite a lot in our situation :rolleyes:
MA v Spain sounds good, but we dont have embassy nor anything but industrialism to trade for MA.
Embassy should be too expensive for us atm. Maybe they left so few units at home that they lose their last town to spain anyway... :dunno:
In that case is it worth delaying an extra 8 turns by selling them 2 lux now for 6gpt? (We also have alliance v Iroquois for 11 turns).
If it helps shave a turn off getting sanitation (and therefore hospitals), I suspect the gain is greater than dowing Greece in 12 turns and getting Barcelona +/- Sparta 8 turns earlier
They should add those 6gpt to their treasury if nobody trades for it, right? Maybe we rather take their accumulated cash for Medicine or we take the gpt now Industrialization :hmm:
edit: Of course this would also mean we'd have to spread Industrialization / Medicine to spare Greece from Nationalism... :crazyeye:
If we play a passive role in southern continent (ie withdraw from vicinity of Niagra Falls) then hopefully Iroquois go for and capture Sparta allowing us to then take it from them.
Did we sell the harbor in Barcelona before gifting it? If Sparta should fall (or a MW cuts the route), our deal could end before 12 turns are gone... :mischief:
 
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