SGOTM 13 - One Short Straw

[ungy]

Guys- sorry to be useless this game. It's been a combo of RL and my civ game being so rusty I don't feel I have much to add. So count me out as a player but I'll be lurking.

 

[babybluepants]

Ok on scouting a bit further west.

Note that it may look like we obtained "too much" Gold, but we were making Gold in increments of approximately 30 to 35 Gold per turn, so it's the "right amount" according to a Binary Science policy.

If we want, I can switch to 100% Science a turn earlier and then at the end of Code of Laws we could consider using non-Binary-Science, if anyone prefers.

Yes. I generally keep closer to zero in these situations, and run whatever slider's needed on the final turn. In this case, you save 31g one turn then run research for 2t. We're not waiting on an academy or anything. For all we know, someone could complete the Pyramids at 1000 BC and give us lots of extra cash.

 

[babybluepants]

Plan looks good to me.

Just a bit confused about the WB situation. Are the 3 WB in the test game still the 2 explorers + one from Stone? Do we get the Pig/Fish and Stone nets on time?

 

[Dhoomstriker]

Just a bit confused about the WB situation. Are the 3 WB in the test game still the 2 explorers + one from Stone?

Yes. In the test game, I left the Work Boat explorers Fortified.

I briefly contemplated trying to update the rest of the map in line with the real game, but to what end would doing so serve? Beyond 1 turn of movement, we'd still be facing "the unknown" and I can't map that out. So, it seemed to make sense not to update any of the land at all and just leave the 2 Work Boats fortified.


During this turnset, the Work Boat plan is:
1. A Work Boat is built in Paris after the Forge, which nets Marble City's eastern Clam

2. A Work Boat explorer HOPEFULLY arrives home. At this point in time, the only useful Seafood to net will be Marble City's western Clam. However, in the test game runthrough, I just left the Work Boat explorer fortified, which simulates the possibility that the Work Boat will die on the way home.

3. A Work Boat is built in Marble City after The Oracle. In the test game, I used it to net Marble City's western Clam. Here's where things depend upon how the real game goes. If we get a Work Boat explorer back home, then this Work Boat could go elsewhere, probably to Pig + Magical Fish City's Magical Fish.

4. A Work Boat is built in Stone City. It could be used for Pig + Magical Fish City if the Work Boat explorer died, in which case Stone City will build a second Work Boat to be used for Stone City. If, however, our Work Boat explorer makes it home, then Stone City's Work Boat can be used for Stone City and thus Stone City can work on building a Lighthouse next. In the test game, I just left Stone City's Work Boat in Stone City (to "represent the idea" that where we send it will depend upon what happens up until that point in time), while I also started on a Lighthouse in Stone City (which would instead be a Work Boat if the Work Boat explorer does not make it home).

5. Another Work Boat is being completed in Gold City, which will be used to net Gold City's 3rd Seafood (its second Clam). The timing of this Work Boat will come out at precisely the correct time: 1 turn after we grow into 1 turn's worth of Unhappiness, meaning that when our new citizen becomes Happy, it will immediately be able to work a Netted Clam.


Confused yet?

Do we get the Pig/Fish and Stone nets on time?

"On time" is relative. If our Work Boat explorer makes it home safely, then the answer is a clear "yes."

If our Work Boat explorer dies on the way home, then the current plan is to self-build a second Work Boat instead of a Lighthouse in Stone City. Since we'll want to focus on Hammers during this building time, we'll be working the Stone square, so it won't really matter that the Magical Fish is not netted, as we won't be using the Magical Fish.

EDIT: It does not look like we will grow Stone City to Size 2 before this potential second Work Boat will be completed in Stone City, as the Lighthouse (which has the same cost as a Work Boat) is currently slated to be completed in 5 turns, while we won't grow for another 8 turns while working the Stone square.

An alternative would be to build a second Work Boat in Marble City before Marble City builds a Granary (which would allow us to net Stone City's Magical Fish as soon as our Cultural Borders expand there instead of 3 turns after our Cultural Borders expand there), but since we might want to run Specialists in Marble City while we probably won't run Specialists in Stone City, I think that it'll be better to just build the second Work Boat in Stone City (since building the second Work Boat in Marble City would mean an additional low-efficiency [pre-Granary] whipping action). But, we won't cross that bridge (i.e. we won't need to decide) until we find out whether or not our Work Boat explorer made it home.

 

[Dhoomstriker]

One further thought is that if we do get our Work Boat explorer home and, as a result, Stone City is going to build a Lighthouse (as seen in the test game), it's not clear whether completing the Lighthouse by continuing to work the Stone or switching to working the Magical Fish (which could be netted as soon as 2 turns from now when Stone City's Cultural Borders expand) will be the better option.

I am probably going to guess that we'd still work the Magical Fish without a Ligthhouse over working the Stone square, but I haven't run the math to be certain.

Since this point depends upon whether our first Work Boat explorer arrives home safely, I am just going to wait on performing the calculation until we find out whether or not it will apply to our real game.

 

[babybluepants]

Ok, sounds good. I was assuming we'd work the fish as soon as borders pop, yes.

 

[Mitchum]

Good work on the PPP!

I thought that we were going to put one turn's worth of hammers into a Trireme in Paris on this turn as a safety net. From the PPP it looks like you plan to delay this for 5 turns until T110. Doing it now delays the forge and WB each by 1 turn. We'd give up 1 turn of a work boat's food and the forge bonus on the one turn's worth of hammers on the Trireme for the added security of having a Trireme ready to whip starting on T106. With a wounded Galley and no WB bait in the area, I think this is a bit risky...

 

[Dhoomstriker]

I think this is a bit risky...

Okay, that opinion is a fair opinion.

At this point, from where do you see the most risk? Here, let me grab a screenshot so that we can discuss the current situation...

I've tried to put "black lines" on the map to indicate paths that Barb Galleys could potentially use to come after us.

From my interpretation, if a Barb Galley comes from out of the blackness near either the Clam or Fish belonging to Gold City, we won't be able to use a Trireme to stop it from pillaging, regardless of whether we have to spend 1 turn (from a partially-pre-built Trireme) or 2 turns (from not having pre-built the Trireme) completing a Trireme in Paris. The Seafood Resource will be toast.

Except, wait! We have a Work Boat that we can whip within 1 turn in Gold City. So, a Barb Galley could end its turn on Gold City's Fish but then we'd have a Work Boat in existence and the Barb Galley would chase the Work Boat.

In the worst case, Gold City's Clam could get pillaged before our Work Boat can come into existence. But, that risk only exists for one single square. If the Barb Galley actually comes at us from either the Crab to the north of Gold City or to the square 1E of the Crab, then the Barb Galley will end its turn on our Gold City's Clam and our Gold City's whipping Work Boat will be able to successfully lure the Barb Galley away.

Unfortunately, a Trireme from Paris won't arrive in time to help, either.

So, for defending that one square's worth of possible attack on Gold City's Clam, we need to fully commit to building a Trireme; pre-building the Trireme only really helps to set our mind at rest without actually doing anything effective (sorry to burst your safety-net bubble! ).


For Paris, though, our Seafood are so well embedded that they are quite well-protected. In the absolute worst case, a Barb Galley can come from the island to the NE of Gold City. At most it could pillage a Clam before a Trireme could exist to respond. So, yes, there is a minor risk that a partially-pre-built Trireme could help to prevent, since such a Trireme COULD be whipped in time to save our Clam.

If I recall correctly, the Forge only needs 1-turn-worth of Hammers invested in it in order to be whipped. If that's the case, then sure, we could probably put in 1-turn-worth of Hammers into the Trireme immediately without any delay in whipping the Forge. However, as you suggest, there is probably a delay in getting Marble City's Work Boat completed.

Let me use the magic power of instant chronoshifting to go and find out...

Wow! Would you believe it? We even have barely sufficient (3 extra) Hammers going into the Work Boat on Turn 108 (for a total of 48/45 Hammers) in order to complete the Work Boat on schedule on Turn 109.

Of course, the end result is that those 3 overflow Hammers get truncated into 2 overflow Hammers going into The Pyramids. Ah, lovely, a layer of micro that I haven't even been looking into.

I suppose that instead of working the Grassland Hills Mine (for an effective 1 Food and 2 Hammers) I could instead work a Coast square (for an effective 2 Food and 2 Commerce) for that one turn of completing the Work Boat, just to avoid this unpleasant loss of a Hammer.

That would be 2 less base Hammers going into The Pyramids but 2 more base Commerce going towards our push on Code of Laws (although it would just translate to 2 Gold at this point, this Gold may or may not help us on the last turn of researching Code of Laws--probably not enough to shave off a turn but maybe enough to change the Science Slider by 10% on that last turn).


So, great! We have a nice way of preparing with the Trireme.

Unfortunately, we have now exposed a new level of micro (Hammer overflow truncation) that makes me want to take 2 Food + 2 Commerce over 1 Food + 2 Hammers for a turn.


So, okay then. I'll slot in one turn worth of building the Trireme on Turn 105. That should give us just enough turns of not working the Trireme to not lose any Hammers due to not building the build item for 15 turns (whipping 15 turns later), but if I'm careful with build queuing, I can "temporarily overflow" into a Trireme (without actually overflowing into it) in order to ensure that we will not lose any invested Hammers at all (just in case it's really 14 turns instead of 15 turns or something or in case we decide later to delay whipping the Trireme).

I.e. The game does a poor-man's job of calculating how many turns that you weren't building a build item and it only checks what the currently-queued build item is at the start of a turn. In actuality, the algorithm, if it wanted to punish us properly, should check at the end of the turn. That means that when I whip the Forge, if I have the Trireme queued-up next, then we won't "lose a turn" of invested Hammers in the Trireme, while I can safely switch around the queue during the turn to the Work Boat.

We'd give up... the forge bonus on the one turn's worth of hammers on the Trireme for the added security of having a Trireme ready to whip starting on T106.

So, the cost of the added security is only 2 Hammers (8 base Hammers going into the Trireme without the Forge's bonus). Let me just go and confirm that the Trireme will still be a 2-pop-whip (I don't see why it wouldn't be, but let's tie up all lose ends, just in case) with only this 1-turn-worth of Hammers invested into it. And (what should have been an automatic "of course" answer but we have the time to avoid making mistakes so why not confirm), the answer is "yes," it is still a 2-pop-whip.

Thus, I think that your suggestion is quite reasonable and I'll incorporate it into my local copy of the PPP.

 

[Mitchum]

Thus, I think that your suggestion is quite reasonable and I'll incorporate it into my local copy of the PPP.

For those that want the Cliff's Notes version, the relevant quote is above... It's how Dhoomstriker arrives at said conclusion that is truely awe inspiring, especially the chronoshifting part!

I'm fine with you playing forward when you're ready and feel comfortable with the amount of feedback you've received.

 

[Dhoomstriker]

I'm fine with you playing forward when you're ready and feel comfortable with the amount of feedback you've received.

So far, I've only heard from 2 people in support of the updated plan and 1 person who has decided to drop down to the status of a lurker without having commented on the PPP (hopefully he meant as a dedicated lurker, so that he can still make comments if and when he feels that he has any to offer).

I wouldn't mind at least a bit more feedback (even negative) before proceeding.

 

[shyuhe]

The only change I would suggest is dumping the forge overflow into the pyramids and building the WB from scratch. It'll slow down the WB but speed up the pyramids. But since we need food in marble, I'm comfortable with forge--WB--mids.

Also, I thought mdy had showed that it was better to grow to size 5 and hire 2 scientists rather than hire 1 at size 4?

 

[Dhoomstriker]

The only change I would suggest is dumping the forge overflow into the pyramids and building the WB from scratch.

Well, the Work Boat is already at 30/45 Hammers as of the start of the turnset, so I unfortunately am unable to build it "from scratch" anymore.

But since we need food in marble, I'm comfortable with forge--WB--mids.

Okay, fair enough. I only have a couple of mins to type, but I had an idea while I slept: that island to the NE of Gold City is going to be the greatest source of a Barb Galley threat. If there is any single island where we really could use a spawn-buster, it is that island.

At 22 Hammers for a Warrior, that's just over 2 turns' worth of production in Paris. Can we afford to dump 22 Hammers away from the The Pyramids? I would almost suggest not even needing Trireme 2 out of Paris this way and just focusing on a Settler pump from Paris, waiting to get Triremes beyond Trireme #1 from somewhere else later (Stone City?).


Basically, our biggest threat is the low amount of advance-warning that we have from Barb Galleys coming from that island to the NE of Gold City--Barb Galleys that can strike at the Seafood of either Gold City or Paris. If we can reduce spawning and also improve visibility, then a single Trireme will be much better able to respond to Barb Galley threats from multiple directions.

Also, I thought mdy had showed that it was better to grow to size 5 and hire 2 scientists rather than hire 1 at size 4?

Hmmm, that detail wasn't captured in the latest PPP that I started from, but I can check into the possibility and see if it works out any better.


Thanks for the suggestions!

 

[shyuhe]

Can we build the spawnbusting warrior in stone city instead of in Paris? Or even in marble? I'd rather not divert the hammers from Paris since those are stone-enhanced hammers we'd be diverting.

 

[Dhoomstriker]

Can we build the spawnbusting warrior in stone city instead of in Paris? Or even in marble? I'd rather not divert the hammers from Paris since those are stone-enhanced hammers we'd be diverting.

I took a look into that possibility.

Part of the issue is that the longer that we delay that Warrior, the greater the risk that we incur.

For example, until we whip Trireme 1, it is possible for either the capital's western Clam to get Pillaged or that we might have to attack a Barb Galley that ends it turn on top of that Clam by the time that we can complete Trireme 1.

Of course, if we just decide to build Trireme 1 in advance, then we lose even more efficiency and we push back our Astronomy date. So, I'd rather not get Trireme 1 too early if we can help it.


Getting a Warrior is a reasonable compromise option.


Getting the Warrior in Gold City would have the Warrior come after Gold City builds a Work Boat for Gold City's second Clam, since that Work Boat arrives "just at the right time" and delaying it will slow the growth of Gold City (which compromises our Astronomy date). As of Turn 120, 1000 BC (the end of this planned PPP) we still have a few turns left to complete this Work Boat. So, a Warrior will arrive from Gold City (unless we whip Gold City and thus delay our Astronomy date) on about Turn 131, 725 BC. While that Warrior will help, it's not going to help in time to seriously reduce the risk of the Barb Galley threat on our Seafood Resources.


Getting a Warrior in Marble City can be done via whipping. We would probably whip the Warrior on Turn 122, 950 BC, when Marble City has 2 Netted Clams and is about to grow to Size 3 (whipping any earlier is quite inefficient). The positive part about this approach is that we can probably 1-pop-whip Marble City's Granary (which means very little Hammer overflow, which is bad, but means a reasonably early Granary, which is good).

However, if we don't get the overflow Hammers from the whipped Warrior in a Granary, we can just as easily 2-pop-whip a Granary in Marble City and we can get the Granary around a similar time, with some Hammer overflow. Doing so thus means that we don't really "gain" by turning the Granary into a 1-pop-whip. 2-pop-whipping the Granary and overflowing the Hammers into a Warrior will definitely give us a Warrior, but that Warrior would arrive on Turn 129, 775 BC, after this proposed PPP. That date is slightly better than Gold City's date for building a Warrior, but still isn't all that helpful in mitigating the immediate potential threat of Barb Galleys on our Seafood Resources.

Now, what further complicates the Marble City equation is that on Turn 126, 850 BC, we have 44 Hammers invested in the Granary (i.e. it's the last turn that the Granary can still be a 2-pop-whip) while we won't grow to City Size 4 for 2 more turns.

So, we can either choose to 1-pop-whip the Granary (with 1 Hammer of overflow) on Turn 127, 825 BC, or we can temporarily build a different build item for 2 turns and 2-pop-whip the Granary on Turn 128, 800 BC, for 46 Hammers' worth of overflow (44 Hammers extra in the Granary plus the 2 Hammers that we will make on Turn 128, 800 BC).

That's, of course, a bit too much to overflow into a Warrior, so if we DO want to 2-pop-whip Marble City's Granary and overflow into a Warrior (or even into 2 Warriors), we'll have to switch from building the Granary to a different build item slightly before we get to 44/90 Hammers invested in the Granary.


We COULD build the Warrior out of Stone City after completing the Monument, in place of a Work Boat coming next. Doing so would delay the growth of Stone City as we'd need to spend more time working the Stone square before we get our Work Boat there. So, there would indeed be long-term implications that are hard to see right now but will overall affect Stone City's growth and thereby production by far more than the value of a single Warrior down the road. However, we could then get the Warrior completed on Turn 112, 1200 BC, at a reasonable date.

Alternatively, we'd build the Warrior after completing the Monument then building a Work Boat. Doing so would not delay the growth of Stone City as much (we'd delay the Lighthouse and Granary by a bit, but not with as great of a cost as delaying the Work Boat) but it would push out the completion of the Warrior until Turn 121, 975 BC, after the end of the proposed PPP.


If, on the other hand, we build the Warrior in Paris, it will be completed on Turn 111, 1225 BC. Compared to the current plan, that will mean 16 less base Hammers invested into The Pyramids (I'll take the hit in having 3 Hammers = 2 Hammers on the turn of completing the Work Boat so that the Warrior will complete with 0 overflow in 2 turns, just in time for us to start building Settler 5 at City Size 6, since then we won't lose 1 Food [trading 1 Hammer for 1 Food, where 1 Food is worth more than 1 Hammer in Paris] whereas I wouldn't take that -1 Hammer hit if we were building The Pyramids in place of the Warrior).

In exchange for those 16 base Hammers not going into The Pyramids, we can then focus a bit more on whipping Settlers out of Paris. Whipping Settlers out of Paris actually creates more Hammers for The Pyramids than whipping Triremes will, since whipping a Trireme only gives us (roughly, because the Forge probably messes up the math) 90 whipped Hammers - 75 Hammers to build the Trireme = roughly 15 Hammers per Trireme in addition to "just building The Pyramids."

Whipping a Settler converts a lot of our massive Food surplus directly into overflow Hammers for The Pyramids, in addition still giving many of the "normal Hammers" that we'd get from the Mines.

So, by getting an early Warrior out of Paris (which prevents us from messing-up the efficiency of one of the other Cities and prevents us from delaying our Astronomy date), we can cut down on the number of Triremes that Paris will need to build (we can pass that Trireme-building burden off to a City like Marble City or Stone City later, since there will be less of a need for "Triremes right now"). In exchange, we will be able to whip more of the "more profitable" Settlers from Paris rather than the "less profitable" Triremes from Paris.

Thus, ironically, we'll make more Hammers for The Pyramids, which, ultimately, I believe is your desired goal.


However, I have presented all of the data (the dates that we could feasibly build the Warrior elsewhere) so that you can make an informed alternative choice to building the Warrior in Paris, if you wish to vote for building it in a different City.

 

[shyuhe]

Sounds good to me. We will probably want another warrior from stone city after its upcoming WB in either event - to help fogbust the SE.

 

[Dhoomstriker]

Sounds good to me.

Thus, a Warrior will come from Paris for the island to the NE of Gold City.

We will probably want another warrior from stone city after its upcoming WB in either event - to help fogbust the SE.

Okay, well we'll want to know soon for certain if we want to build the next Warrior spawn-buster in Stone City, since that would mean building a Warrior during this current turnset.

An alternative to building the next Warrior in Stone City is to continue on getting Stone City up-to-speed efficiency-wise by focusing on Lighthouse + Granary first. In exchange, we would aim to build 1 or even 2 Warriors in Marble City from the Granary's overflow Hammers--doing so means building the Warriors AFTER having a Lighthouse + Granary in Marble City, so the "cost" in terms of production is smaller.

Of course, we'd complete the Warrior in Stone City earlier than we would complete 1 or 2 Warriors in Marble City.

A third factor to consider is that if our Work Boat explorer makes it home, there is the possibility of shaving-off a turn in terms of whipping Marble City's Granary (I'm not sure exactly as I haven't counted the number of squares of distance and the Work Boat explorer might also not make it home, but there's a chance of saving a turn there).

Finally, then there's the consideration that maybe someone wants to use the roughly 42 Hammers of overflow Hammers that we'll aim to get from Marble City's Granary into a different building, such as a Forge (to make it a 3-pop-whip instead of a 4-pop-whip) or a Library (to make it a 2-pop-whip instead of a 3-pop-whip). However, I am personally under the impression that these build items are low-priority build items, as we probably (but I am not certain) won't want to whip them until after we've run a bunch of Specialists in Marble City. Therefore, any Hammers collected in such a building would probably go unused for a very long time, in which case we might as well make use of them somehow, such as by building Warriors.

 

[shyuhe]

I think marble should concentrate on getting specialists up quickly. Stone is of limited long-term use so I don't see much benefit in hurrying a lighthouse/granary there. A warrior from stone will save more hammers overall by preventing barb spawns from the SE.

 

[Dhoomstriker]

I think marble should concentrate on getting specialists up quickly. Stone is of limited long-term use so I don't see much benefit in hurrying a lighthouse/granary there.

Okay, well I should at least be able to play up until the turn that we complete the Work boat in Stone City, at which point we'll need to decide where we will want our next Warrior to come from.

Doing so can get the game moving forwards while allowing others to voice their opinion either way.

A warrior from stone will save more hammers overall by preventing barb spawns from the SE.

While true, a Warrior built from anywhere will accomplish the same thing. We do have a Galley that basically has nothing better to do than to sit around, so the distance between the City that builds the Warrior and the Warrior's final destination isn't really relevant.

The relevant points are:
1. The timing of when the Warrior will be completed (Turn 121 in Stone City versus Turn 129 in Marble City)
AND
2. What we might rather do with the Hammers from whichever City that we aim to build the next Warrior (Warrior 4). Note that I am calling the Warrior that we will build from Paris on Turn 111, 1225 BC as "Warrior 3."


I still need to look into whether or not Gold City can gain by delaying the hiring of its 1st Scientist. However, once I have my answer, I will simply use the choice that gives us the best result (the path that gives us the earliest Great Scientist with the least amount of turns with Unhappy people).


Thus, I'll aim to do that testing this evening and then will start playing. I'm not exactly sure when I'll have free time, but I'll aim to pause play as soon as anything "interesting" happens.

 

[shyuhe]

Sounds good to me. Thanks for picking the game up Dhoom.

 

[Mitchum]

Thus, I'll aim to do that testing this evening and then will start playing. I'm not exactly sure when I'll have free time, but I'll aim to pause play as soon as anything "interesting" happens.

Go, Dhoom, Go!!