SGOTM 13 - One Short Straw

[Mitchum]

Agreed. MC for Alphabet.

 

[babybluepants]

Agree w MC for Alphabet.

Explore the horse/dye are with the WB, I think.

Let's stop play again after you make the trade, so we can discuss other tech options.

 

[mdy]

Metal Casting for Alphabet, Metal Casting for Alphabet + Hunting (a trade that we don't want to make since we want to keep building cheapo Warriors)

Couldn't we make the MC for hunting+alphabet deal and keep building warriors if we didn't hook up the copper till we wanted to build maces?

 

[Mitchum]

Couldn't we make the MC for hunting+alphabet deal and keep building warriors if we didn't hook up the copper till we wanted to build maces?

Unless we unknowingly already have Iron hooked up...

 

[shyuhe]

We're not hooking up fur yet so I don't see why we want hunting.

 

[babybluepants]

We can pick it up whenever as part of another trade, I think.

Our relations with Willem could be quite good here, with religion and fair trade. What would it take to bribe him into war sometime soon?

 

[babybluepants]

BTW, looking at their graph I think we're probably getting crushed. The game is turning out to be about as easy as possible for archipelago. Ragnar can probably go down to 3 galleys worth of axes, and Izzy is one of lamest AIs in quick conquest/dom games. Whatever... We'll get an interesting strategy comparison in any case.

 

[shyuhe]

It sort of depends on how quickly the AI reach feudalism.

 

[Dhoomstriker]

We can pick it up whenever as part of another trade, I think.

I also see no value to getting Hunting now, if ever (unless we end up wanting Horse Archers or don't make it to Engineering and need Spears), but we will certainly have many opportunities to pick up Hunting and even Archery at a later date.

Only Ragnar showed any evidence of hooking-up a Horse Resource, and, of course, he has Ivory, but even if we do eventually want Spears (you can actually have Pikemen without Hunting, if we do get as far as Engineering), it will be a quick, simple, and cheap trade.

Our relations with Willem could be quite good here, with religion and fair trade. What would it take to bribe him into war sometime soon?

He would require far more than just a Shared Religion. In fact, I don't see it being a possibility at all. If I understand the XML values correctly, he'll max out at +2 for Shared Religion.

What's worse is that he needs to be Friendly with us in order to be bribed into war. Add to that the fact that with +1 for Shared Religion, he is still CAUTIOUS with us (in contrast he is Pleased with Isabella at the same total amount of Diplo Modifiers--+2 total) and therefore, I don't see us getting him to Friendly Status at all this game.



He will at least allow himself to be bribed into war with any player that he is Cautious or less towards (which currently includes us ) if he were to be bribed by a player that he is Friendly towards (which is currently no one). However, it's the "getting him to like us sufficiently" part that doesn't look likely at all.


He can choose to declare war of his own initiative on any player that he is Pleased or less towards, so there is always the chance of him being the "biggest, most bad AI on the block" convincing him to go to war.

 

[Dhoomstriker]

Alright, I don't see anyone pushing for a Code of Laws <-> Alphabet trade, and I think that most of the currently-active players have responded, thus I'll make the Metal Casting <-> Alphabet trade shortly.

 

[Dhoomstriker]

Willem gave us +1 for Fair and Forthright Trading, putting him at +3 overall towards us. However, he still remains Cautious with us, so I think that we can give up on the idea of getting him Friendly towards us.


Here's the Tech scene after having made the Metal Casting <-> Alphabet trade:

 

[Dhoomstriker]

Some thoughts:

1. We're definitely going to want to get Iron Working in trade, particularly so that our Workers can start Chopping the Jungle on top of our Copper

2. In exchange for Iron Working, I'd probably want to trade away Code of Laws to one of our Religious-tech-hoggers, like Victoria or Isabella

3. I'd like to avoid giving away any of the cheap Religious techs, which include: Mysticism, Meditation, Polytheism (if we get it in trade), Priesthood, and Monotheism (if we get it in trade)

4. If may be worth taking Polytheism so that we might have a chance of getting Monotheism in trade

5. Two AIs currently know Monotheism for certain (because they are running Organized Religion): Cathy and Isabella

6. Here are the AIs' Tech Trade threshold values:
Cathy = 20
Isabella = 60
Ragnar = 30, plus he needs to be Pleased towards the other player (which is currently Cathy and Isabella, but not us)
Vicky = 30
Willem = 15 (he's almost as bad as Mansa!)

7. Cathy is clearly the better chance for us to get Monotheism in trade

8. Since Isabella is so stiff-necked about trading, she might make for a decent candidate to get Iron Working off of, as she'll likely never give us another opportunity for tech trading, beyond Hunting/Archery/other techs that every AI learns

9. That said, Vicky might be better if we can get Iron Working + Polytheism in the same tech-trading deal. I'll have to check

 

[Dhoomstriker]

Well, I'm running low on space for pictures, but every picture tells a story, so you'll get spoiled with pictures now.

If we ask Vicky for Code of Laws <-> Iron Working + Polytheism, she offers to throw in Hunting. This point means that we can get the 2 techs that we want without any trouble, although we would not also take Hunting at this time.



Identically, if we ask Vicky for Metal Casting <-> Iron Working + Polytheism, she is amenable to making the trade and still offers to throw in Hunting.



Ragnar, being Cautious towards us, won't trade us any techs. However, he is willing to "trade" Metal Casting <-> War with Vicky.



Similarly to Vicky, if we ask Cathy for Metal Casting <-> Iron Working + Polytheism, she will offer to throw in Hunting as well.



If I offer Writing <-> Iron Working + Polytheism to Cathy, then what she tells us is that "all of the techs that you know minus Metal Casting are not sufficient to please me and therefore I will also tack-on Metal Casting." So, no, we can't trade a bunch of cheap techs for both Iron Working + Polytheism. Of course, even if she would have said "yes" without requiring Metal Casting, I would not have pushed for this trade, since some of those cheap techs are on my "list of techs not to trade away."



However, if we are more practical and offer Writing + Agriculture <-> Polytheism, Cathy is amenable to the trade and will also throw in Hunting.



Trying to get even cheaper by offering just Writing <-> Polytheism does not work, as then Cathy wants us to throw in another tech in order to "convince her."



There isn't anything noteworthy to trade with Willem, if you will recall, so there are no screenshots for him.

 

[Dhoomstriker]

Oops, I forgot to say that Isabella will gladly trade Metal Casting <-> Iron Working or Code of Laws <-> Iron Working. Since "not enough players know Polytheism," it is not up for trade from her.

 

[mdy]

I think we should take the MC for iron working and polytheism deal with Vicki (I think MC is preferable as William already has it, and he will trade it around if we don't.) This should leave us in a position to hopefully make a writing+polytheism for monotheism deal with Cathy.

I think it would be better to boost Vicki's research by trading with her than Isabellas because Vicki will be more likely to trade any future tech she discovers with us.

Do we know what William has chosen to research next yet?

 

[babybluepants]

Why wouldn't we trade Alpha for IW? MC can remain a near monopoly for a while, and useful for later trades. Poly can be a Wtg+Agri trade with Cathy or something.

 

[Dhoomstriker]

I think we should take the MC for iron working and polytheism deal with Vicki (I think MC is preferable as William already has it, and he will trade it around if we don't.)

Do you know how to correctly calculate the formula involving the "ItechTradeKnownPercent" values that I provided? At one point I thought that I knew, but some things have made me think that I don't quite have the formula correct, such as Toku being willing to trade a tech before all of the other players besides the human player know it, although his value is listed as "100."

I'm trying to search for info on the subject now but I have yet to come across a good explanation.


For example, we could probably feasibly trade Vicky Code of Laws and she probably wouldn't trade it around (she only knows Ragnar right now anyway, but I mean later, once she meets more AIs).

I would agree that we want to trade with Vicky, getting Iron Working and Polytheism, but I'd like to understand the numbers, if possible, before deciding on Metal Casting versus Code of Laws.

This should leave us in a position to hopefully make a writing+polytheism for monotheism deal with Cathy.

Well, ideally we'll get a Writing + Agriculture <-> Monotheism deal out of her. Writing and Monotheism are valued at an equal Flask value as each other, while Agriculture comes in at half of their cost (minus 1 Flask), so, as long as she has 0 Flasks invested in either tech, it should be a simple trade to make.

Cathy already knows Polytheism, so it would have to be a tech other than that one which we would give to her.

I think it would be better to boost Vicki's research by trading with her than Isabellas because Vicki will be more likely to trade any future tech she discovers with us.

That reasoning is fine... but what would we be hoping for?

Machinery via Metal Casting?
Civil Service via Code of Laws?

Do we know what William has chosen to research next yet?

We will not know until we have advanced the turn. I could choose to do so without making a trade, but the longer that we wait to make trades, the more chance that Cathy will have of researching part of Agricluture and/or Writing, which could very quickly kill a Writing + Agriculture <-> Monotheism trade with her. So, I'd prefer to get Iron Working + Polytheism from Vicky this turn.

 

[Dhoomstriker]

Why wouldn't we trade Alpha for IW?

We could... but trading-away Alphabet would speed up the global tech-trading pace far more than giving away either of Metal Casting or Code of Laws would.

The sooner that the AIs begin actively trading, the sooner that they'll push towards Feudalism, at which point then yes, the Plastic Ducks' approach will be a lot simpler than ours. As long as we can fight some of the AIs pre-Feudalism, we'll still be in really great shape.

MC can remain a near monopoly for a while, and useful for later trades.

That's why I'm trying to figure out the formula for employing the "ItechTradeKnownPercent" values. It's likely that Willem will already be willing to trade away Metal Casting, but of more interest to me is what it would take for Vicky to want to trade away Code of Laws.

AIs are unlikely to go after Code of Laws themselves for quite some time, so if we figure that both us and Vicky having Code of Laws will mean that she won't trade it, then it might be a better choice to give away than Code of Laws.

Why? Well if we give her Metal Casting, with 3 players knowing it, she'll probably be in a more likely position to trade it around, once she meets the others. It shouldn't be TOO long before she meets the others, as both Isabella and Willem have exploring-Work-Boats patrolling around our waters at the moment.

But, if she won't trade Code of Laws at all, then that's one less trade to worry about.

Howver, if she WILL have a chance of trading away Code of Laws, say, to Willem at some point, then we'll be better off giving her Metal Casting, even if it means that this tech will be more likely to get traded around.

Poly can be a Wtg+Agri trade with Cathy or something.

What would you trade to her for Monotheism? We don't really have a current use for Polytheism except as a "gateway tech" to Monotheism.

Monotheism could be worth 1 more turn of Anarchy and a possible 1-pop-whip in Gold City (once we invest 15 Hammers manually into such a Missionary) in exchange for an additional Confucian Missionary. Obviously, the timing would be tight, as we'd need Slavery for any such whipping, but we do have a tiny bit of excess population points to play with in Gold City, thanks to growing a tiny bit faster by using Conficianism's Happiness.

That's another reason why I'd like to know the formula: to see if Cathy would even be willing to trade us Monotheism with just her and Isabella knowing Monotheism.

 

[mdy]

That reasoning is fine... but what would we be hoping for?

Machinery via Metal Casting?
Civil Service via Code of Laws?

I was thinking of currency/construction/calendar. As the AI's tend to research alphabet well before MC trading them would make them more likely to research these techs on a useful timescale, so on second thoughts I think this is a better idea. I would also gift the AI maths once we know it so they research these techs sooner.

Do you know how to correctly calculate the formula involving the "ItechTradeKnownPercent" values that I provided? At one point I thought that I knew, but some things have made me think that I don't quite have the formula correct, such as Toku being willing to trade a tech before all of the other players besides the human player know it, although his value is listed as "100."

I think the AI only takes account of the civs it has met, could this explain the behaviour you noticed with Togawa?

 

[Dhoomstriker]

I was thinking of currency/construction/calendar... I would also gift the AI maths once we know it so they research these techs sooner.

Although I believe that we will self-tech Currency before any of the AIs are likely to start research on it, I agree with your reasoning for Construction and Calendar.

Gifting them Math DOES get the AIs more Hammers per Chop, potentially netting them more units that they would have built otherwise. But, I think that this cost is a reasonable cost to pay, seeing as how most of the AIs will likely know Math before we can attack them, so it's probably only going to affect a small number of Chops.

We also don't care about building The Hanging Gardens, so who cares if an AI builds it?

So, sure, we can plan to trade-around Math.

Now, though, the question becomes: what tech do I set Research to? We have Alphabet, so I could set research to Currency. Even without Math's bonus to research on it, it would be worth getting early.

For example, if you want to build an early Library and you eventually want to research Pottery, it can be worth it for you to research Writing -> Pottery, even though doing so misses out on the 20% bonus to Writing for knowing Pottery.

Here, since we don't plan to make any Forest Chops, we could go for Currency -> Math. In so doing, we'd increase our chances of getting Math in trade.

We don't have a major rush on getting Math ourselves, unless you really like the idea of 1 turn of Anarchy + whipping a Confucian Missionary from Gold City (assuming that we can get Monotheism in trade), so that we'll have a 100% chance of having Confucianism in each of Paris and Pig City.

Getting Math soon but not being willing to build a Missionary and still waiting a while for the natural spread of Confucianism doesn't REALLY help us, other than that:
a) While no AI will beat us to Currency almost certainly (they generally avoid that tech for a while), we WILL get a bonus to research on it from Math
AND
b) We could immediately trade-around Math, instead of waiting to get it in trade before gifting it around, so that AIs would have the opportunity to start on Construction and/or Calendar a bit earlier

a) and b) sound like minor benefits compared to having Currency earlier, so I would tend to want to set research to Currency next.

As the AI's tend to research alphabet well before MC trading them would make them more likely to research these techs on a useful timescale, so on second thoughts I think this is a better idea.

I'm sorry, but I'm not sure what you are saying here.

I think the AI only takes account of the civs it has met, could this explain the behaviour you noticed with Togawa?

Certainly, that's a possibility. I don't recall the details at the moment.

I am, however, currently trying to work through the C++ function that uses the ItechTradeKnownPercent value, so hopefully, I'll have an answer to my question soon enough.