SGOTM 13 - One Short Straw

[Dhoomstriker]

Only Cathy and Isabella have Monotheism (I still haven't advanced the turn yet but I can see the techs on the F4 -> TECHS screen).

An interesting tid-bit is that Isabella does not know Hunting. She, of course, knows Archery, since she gets that tech for free.

 

[Dhoomstriker]

I have screenshotted the visible sources of Iron, except for the one that we know about that is in Nidaros' fat cross (i.e. Ragnar's capital's fat cross).

The first one is off to the east of our area, by the 2-Clam-Plains Hills location, making that site a bit better for production than we'd thought previously.

The second one is a lame Desert Hills Iron that is located on the tip of Ragnar's landmass. It isn't placed in a good position at all. Ragnar, as I said, doesn't even need it, although given sufficient time, he would probably expand to that Hills square and settle on it.

The next Iron appears on the island to the west of Cathy's area.

Two Irons appear just outside of English borders, meaning that she will probably get one of them soon and we'll likely be facing more than just Archers when we arrive at her doorstep. Oh well, more Axemen defenders means less possible Archers that could be upgraded into Longbowmen.

I have already moved the Galley on this turn, but do we want to consider settling in the east at the 2-Clams location? There IS a Barb Galley there, so our Trireme would need to go out there. Also, our Workers are currently, haha, on top of the Grassland Jungle Copper, but I would be able to go back and get them and leave one of them on the Galley when we load up the Settler, if we wanted to change our mind about where to settle.

I will move the Trireme slightly towards the east but will not totally commmit the Trireme yet, as that's about the only unit with movement points remaining.

Then, on the next turn, I won't move the Galley until we've decided if this new eastern location looks any better than settling Copper City.

 

[Dhoomstriker]

Okay, well here is a bit of news:
It is Turn 133, 675 BC, and we were able to make the Writing + Agriculture <-> Monotheism trade with Cathy, so I executed that trade.

We also have a -2 diplo modifier with Ragnar for having traded with his Worst Enemy (Victoria). She only gave us +1 but he gave us -2, go figure. The difference is due to the length of time that we have known both AIs. We are now Ragnar's Worst Enemy (him being Annoyed with us means that we can't bribe him into a war should such an option come up, at least not until we gift him sufficient techs to get back to him being Cautious towards us... anyway, that possibility is one that we would not need to consider until he or Isabella converts Religions anyway).

Ragnar, interestingly, appears to have learned Math.

Willem, though, is busy researching Polytheism (he has 2 turns to go on it).


I'm not really sure what to do on the Willem front. Since he's committed to learning Polytheism ANYWAY, we could gift it to him, but doing so might also just put him closer to researching the next tech on the path to Monarchy. It might make him go for Math a bit faster. It's a risk, but it's only a 2-turn speed-up, so it might be a worthwhile risk.

He values Math at 30, Priesthood at 5, and Monotheism at 2. Of course, he could have already selected a tech like Monotheism as his next beeline tech and thus Polytheism is just "on the way" to that tech. If this were Vanilla or Warlords, I'd say that maybe he selected Literature, with Polytheism being "on the way."

I have HEARD that AIs can pick 3 techs ahead but have only ever see them pick 2 techs ahead when looking at their Research in the World Builder, but I've only looked in the World Builder a couple of times, so I don't really have concrete evidence except that for certain, an AI can pick 2 techs in advance. I suppose that it is possible that he picked Literature and is thus going to research Polytheism and Aesthetics "on the way" to Literature.

It does kind of feel that Polytheism is likely an "on the way there" type of tech, since he has it listed at "0" and is thus less likely to go after it compared to other techs, but it could also just be that the tech is so cheap to complete that a random number plus the tech's cheapness caused him to go after Polytheism without picking any techs further in advance of this one.

 

[Dhoomstriker]

So, we have 3 decisions to make before I play any further:

1. Settler at the Copper City or the 2-Clam + Iron City location?

Note that the 2-Clam + Iron City location has a Barb Galley nearby and we'd probably need to commit our Trireme to staying slightly closer to that City than its distance to other Cities. On the plus side, we have our exploring Work Boat located to the SW of our empire, which can potentially spawn-bust part of that area in about 2 turns, giving us less risk to sending the Trireme to the east, should the Barb Galley show its head and force us to defend the area, but we'd be leaving Gold City a bit vulnerable. Of course, any time that our Trireme needs to defend means that we'd leave other areas of our empire undefended, so it's not really a new concept.

Fortunately, the Barb Galley won't "see" our Netted Clam at 2-Clam + Iron City for a little while, unless it walks right up next to it, so our Trireme won't need to get TOO close. I won't know for sure exactly how many squares of distance our Trireme can afford to be until I settle the City there, unless I do a test run--but I have the real game currently open and paused so I don't have any plans to to a test run on less someone requests it.

The Copper City location is decent, but the nice part about 2-Clams + Iron is that it has 2 good sources of production, compared to Copper City's 1 source.


2. Do we set Research to Currency and hope for Math in trade? One of the needed-to-get-it AIs has it (i.e. a non-Vicky AI, since Vicky hardly knows anyone); now we just need one of Cathy or Willem to decide to research it within a reasonable timeframe and we should be able to get it in trade.


3. Do we gift Polytheism to Willem?

He does have Meditation, which, under normal circumcances, would mean that after 1 turn of research, he could trade away Meditation for Polytheism himself. The only AIs that would take Meditation are Vicky and Cathy (since Isabella has Meditation and Ragnar doesn't even have Mysticism yet). Willem has not met Vicky, so that possibility is out.

But, since: Cathy does not have Meditation, Willem has Alphabet (AI-AI tech trading enabled), Willem does not have Polytheism, Willem has invested some Flasks into Polytheism, and both of them are willing to trade away those techs to anyone that is willing to trade them, I think that there is a strong chance that they will trade with each other if we don't gift him Polytheism.

Thus, despite the possibility of Polytheism being an "on the way to another tech" tech for Willem, he'll probably get it in trade ANYWAY. Thus, if we gift it to him, we can prevent the possibility of Cathy getting Meditation.


If you keep the Alphabet-knowing AI the tech leader, then very few AI-AI trades end up happening. It may sound backwards, but it makes sense when you think about it.



My thoughts:
1. I think I'm ready to abandon Copper City in favour of 2-Clam + Iron City.
2. I'd like to switch Research to Currency at a 0% Science Rate.
3. I'd like to gift Polytheism to Willem.

 

[Dhoomstriker]

Oh yeah, one more thing: Willem's Work Boat explorer and Isabella's Work Boat explorer are both "protecting" Gold City right now... Willem's Work Boat is INSIDE of Gold City while Isabella's Work Boat is to the NE + E of Gold City, with both of them heading in a roughly northern direction.

As a result, I do not fear too much about a Barb Galley coming that way in the short run, should our Trireme need to head out towards the 2-Clam + Iron City area to defend from a Barb Galley, since one of these Work Boats has a reasonably-high chance of going to the north of Gold City and thus could delay any potential Barb Galley attack from that quadrant.

 

[Dhoomstriker]

As for our Work Boat explorer, it went in the planned: 1S, 1N, Skip Turn path, and no Barb Galley has appeared on this turn. Therefore, I think that it is safe to conclude that Ragnar beat the Barb Galley and thus our Work Boat explorer will be free to head in a north-easterly direction, followed by going east to check out the Horse + Dyes island that is located at the south-west of our empire.

 

[mdy]

Could you upload the save for us to look at please? I find that it is much easier for me to understand our situation from that than it is from screenshots.

 

[Dhoomstriker]

Here is your Session Turn Log from T 127, 825 BC to T133, 675 BC and a link to the latest REAL saved game:

Spoiler :

Turn 127, 825 BC: You have constructed a Granary in Marble. Work has now begun on a Work Boat.

Turn 128, 800 BC: You have trained a Work Boat in Marble. Work has now begun on a Warrior.
Turn 128, 800 BC: Willem van Oranje converts to Confucianism!
Turn 128, 800 BC: Confucianism has spread in Haithabu.

Turn 129, 775 BC: The revolution has begun!!!
Turn 129, 775 BC: Napoleon OSS converts to Confucianism!
Turn 129, 775 BC: The anarchy is over! Your government is re-established.
Turn 129, 775 BC: The Great Wall has been built in a far away land!

Turn 130, 750 BC: Confucianism has spread in Utrecht.

Turn 131, 725 BC: Paris can hurry Settler for 3? with 32? overflow and +1? for 49 turns.
Turn 131, 725 BC: Marble will grow to size 3 on the next turn.
Turn 131, 725 BC: Stone will grow to size 2 on the next turn.

Turn 132, 700 BC: Marble has grown to size 3.
Turn 132, 700 BC: Willem van Oranje will trade Alphabet, Hunting, Iron Working
Turn 132, 700 BC: You have discovered Alphabet!
Turn 132, 700 BC: You have discovered Iron Working!
Turn 132, 700 BC: You have discovered Polytheism!
Turn 132, 700 BC: Paris will grow to size 7 on the next turn.
Turn 132, 700 BC: Pig Mmm Fish will grow to size 4 on the next turn.

Turn 133, 675 BC: Paris has grown to size 7.
Turn 133, 675 BC: Paris has become unhappy.
Turn 133, 675 BC: Stone can hurry Granary for 1? with 6? overflow and +1? for 28 turns.
Turn 133, 675 BC: Pig Mmm Fish has grown to size 4.
Turn 133, 675 BC: Pig Mmm Fish can hurry Granary for 2? with 39? overflow and +1? for 15 turns.
Turn 133, 675 BC: You are the worst enemy of Ragnar.
Turn 133, 675 BC: Victoria will trade Hunting
Turn 133, 675 BC: Catherine will trade Hunting, Monotheism
Turn 133, 675 BC: You have discovered Monotheism!

Latest REAL Saved Game

 

[Dhoomstriker]

I find that it is much easier for me to understand our situation from that than it is from screenshots.

Well, maybe the screenshots aren't sufficient, but you're supposed to be reading the bucket-loads of text, too.


If there is any way that I can improve upon the information-reporting, please let me know. I am open to feedback.


By the way, it seems that the gotm server went down shortly after I uploaded the saved game. I saw a message in one of the XOTM Pre-game discussion threads about the server being down, so if you can't connect and are desperate to see the saved game, then please request a copy of it via PM and I'll email it to you. Of course, the Internet does funny things and maybe the gotm server is working for you and not for me.

 

[shyuhe]

Two claims + iron is better than copper but we would need to leave a trireme over there pretty much permanently to protect the sea food. Can we afford that given our western exposure?

 

[mdy]

Iron is clearly a better site than copper, and we could still defend our empire with 2 triemes if we left the warrior fogbusting the copper so I think we should settle 1S of iron next.

I also think we should gift polytheism to William (or even trade for hunting now we have no danger of iron turning up in an inconvenient place). If William decided to research maths next then I think we could afford to wait for him to research it, otherwise I think we would have to tech it ourselves. Given that Russia is a fairly poor techer in this game I think the chances of her researching it for us are too small to gamble on.

I'm still doubtful that self teching currency will pay off. If William is researching maths next I would put our beakers into machinery.

If there is any way that I can improve upon the information-reporting, please let me know. I am open to feedback

The existing reports are very thorough, it's just quicker to find the bits of information I'm looking for in the game than by searching through several posts for it.

 

[babybluepants]

Iron changes exactly nothing for me, since I really wanted both those sites asap anyway. Iron's better, but Copper is logistically easier, so my vote stays with it. I'm totally cool with iron first, though.

We should go for Math full speed now.

 

[Mitchum]

I agree that 1S of Iron should be the next city.

Gift Poly Willem to see what he researches next. If Math, great. If not, we research it ourselves next.

Given the fact that we can fund research at 100% by getting gold from the AI in any lopsided tech trades and gpt for the resources we are currently giving away, I do think Currency will pay for itself before our teching is done. It will also allow us to support more troops before we go negative gpt...

 

[Dhoomstriker]

Two claims + iron is better than copper but we would need to leave a trireme over there pretty much permanently to protect the sea food. Can we afford that given our western exposure?

A single Trireme can defend our empire from 1W of the Pig City's Magical Fish. While we would have to attack a Barb Galley if it arrived on our 2 Clam City's western Clam from two out of the three possible arrival vectors (we could defend from the third vector), we'd still have 88% odds of winning.

Later, we could place a Warrior on the Plains Hills square on the island to the east of there, so that we'd then have plenty of advance warning for our Trireme. However, for now, positioning the Trireme 1W of Pig City's Magical Fish will be an acceptable compromise.

if we left the warrior fogbusting the copper

There is no question that we'd leave the Warrior spawn-busting on Copper Island, as it can give us 100% anti-Barb-spawning coverage in that area.

I also think we should gift polytheism to William (or even trade for hunting now we have no danger of iron turning up in an inconvenient place).

Which option is more important to people?

Option A] Getting Hunting in trade now and not connecting-up our Iron
Option B] Getting Hunting later (which will be easy to get) and also being able to connect-up our Iron for starting work on Axemen/Swordsmen whenever we feel like it

If William decided to research maths next then I think we could afford to wait for him to research it, otherwise I think we would have to tech it ourselves. Given that Russia is a fairly poor techer in this game I think the chances of her researching it for us are too small to gamble on.

I'm still doubtful that self teching currency will pay off. If William is researching maths next I would put our beakers into machinery.

Hmmm, I think that the current idea is that since Compass is now unlocked, if we need a "Flask dump" tech along the Astronomy path, it would be Compass, not Machinery. We won't Lightbulb Compass but we may be able to Lightbulb Machinery--but any more Flasks put into Machinery will be simply lost in a puff of smoke if we do end up Lightbulbing Machinery.

Therefore, I will treat your vote as being "put 1 turn worth of 0% Science Research into Compass, while we wait to see what Willem researches on the next turn, and if he doesn't appear to be researching Math on the next turn, set Research to Math at a 100% Science Rate."

As for Math... Ragnar was the ideal AI to learn Math. Due to Ragnar having learned it, that means that any of Willem, Cathy, or Vicky learning Math will mean that we will be able to get Math in trade.

I think that due to Ragnar having Math, there will be a reasonable chance to get Math in trade.

Thus, my vote is "set Research to Currency at a 0% Science Rate, then decide in a few turns if we'll go for 100% on Currency or 100% on Math."

 

[Dhoomstriker]

EDIT: Updated with additional responses.

Alright, so I have multiple tech-related decisions to worry about, and not everyone has really weighed-in on each of them. Also, please correct me if I am wrong in my understanding of your desires, but below are what I believe people have said that they want to do:

1. Give or trade Polytheism to Willem (as opposed to allowing Willem to self-tech it)
shyuhe = no
mdy = yes, give/trade it
Mitchum = yes, give/trade it
babybluepants = yes, give/trade it
Dhoom = yes, give/trade it

2. If the above question's answer is "yes," then: Get Hunting in trade from Willem (if possible) for Polytheism? (I haven't checked if he will say yes, as I don't have the real game open anymore, but assume that Willem will say yes)
shyuhe = yes, get Hunting now (if possible)
mdy = yes, get Hunting now (if possible)
Mitchum = no, gift Polytheism
babybluepants = yes, get Hunting now (if possible)
Dhoom = go with popular opinion

3. What Science Rate do we select for the current turn?
shyuhe = 0%
mdy = 0%
Mitchum = 0%
babybluepants = 100% if "no" to question 1, 0% otherwise
Dhoom = 0%

4. What tech do we set Research to on this turn?
shyuhe = Compass
mdy = uncertain, but I am guessing Compass
Mitchum = Compass for this turn
babybluepants = Currency is preferred, but Compass otherwise
Dhoom = Currency, but I don't really care that much which one we pick as long as we stay at 0% and don't pick Machinery, so I will change my vote to popular opinion here

5. Do we self-tech Currency at some point?
shyuhe = no
mdy = no
Mitchum = yes
babybluepants = yes
Dhoom = yes



Other decisions:
6. Settle Iron City or Copper City next?
shyuhe = Iron
mdy = Iron
Mitchum = Iron
babybluepants = Iron
Dhoom = Iron

 

[shyuhe]

1. I'd prefer to not.
2. If we're giving him poly, yes.
3. 0%
4. Compass. I'd like to trade for math.
5. No.
6. Iron is fine.

 

[Mitchum]

4. I say that we should set research to Compass at 0% unless we can agree on item 5. If we agree to research Currency at some point, I would put current research on Currency at 0% instead.

 

[babybluepants]

1. Sure
2. Sure
3. 0% or rather depends. I meant 100% once we decide to self-tech Math. I think only Willem teching it gets it to us in trade. 1t at 0% on Compass is fine with the Poly gift. Without Poly gift or if Willem doesn't go for Math next turn after gift, we should tech Math at 100%.
4. See above.
5. Yes
6. Iron is better, I agree.

Edit: just saw Mitchum's post above mine - I agree.

 

[Dhoomstriker]

Thank you for the responses. I'll play in about an hour, after I get some food. Between now and then, if someone wants to present further arguments, they can do so, at which point I will delay play if a majority decision is in question.

Otherwise, I will go with the majority.

A democratic approach isn't always the best method, particularly when decisions are heavily inter-related. However, that's why we give additional explanations along with our votes--the additional explanations allow our opinions to be properly qualified and thus the full impact of our thoughts and decisions can be better understood. Democracy works best when you can actually consider the reasons behind why someone votes, which is why most democratic processes are seen to be failures--because they only solicit an "X" instead of any of the valuable, pertinent feedback.

 

[babybluepants]

I've thought about tech some more, and changed my mind. Too many options are difficult to balance. The big question is whether we're researching Currency or not. I've calculated that the extra TR roughly cancels out the Math 20% discount. That means teching Currency right away is better, as it lets us wait on a Math trade. If we're not teching Currency, 0% on Compass for some turns is better. In any case, there's no reason to tech Math full on until we really need to.

Edit: xpost with Dhoom