SGOTM 13 - One Short Straw

I don't think it is worth self teching currency at all. It costs 936 beakers. Taking account of the 20% bonus from alphabet this is 780 beakers. We won't have time to build any markets so the only benefit is the trade routes. With 6 cities gaining 1 trade route worth 2 commerce per turn it would take 60-65 turns of teching (depending on library bonus) to break even. Our research phase will be over well before then, so if we self teched currency we would finish teching and start warring later even in the unlikely event that we were unable to trade for it first.

I think that researching maths next would therefore be best.

I'm sorry, but I'm not sure what you are saying here.

The AI's don't normally research MC for a while, therefore trading it to them is unlikely to cause them to research useful techs for us earlier. They do however research alphabet much earlier than MC, so if we trade it to them first they will research something else, which hopefully will be useful to us earlier.
 
Okay, I have a lead on how to interpret the iTechTradeKnownPercent values.

Here's some relevant code from {Your Civ4 directory}\Beyond the Sword\CvGameCoreDLL\CvTeamAI.cpp, in particular from the DenialTypes function:
Code:
    iKnownCount = 0;
    iPossibleKnownCount = 0;

    for (iI = 0; iI < MAX_CIV_TEAMS; iI++)
    {
      if (GET_TEAM((TeamTypes)iI).isAlive())
      {
        if ((iI != getID()) && (iI != eTeam))
        {
          if (isHasMet((TeamTypes)iI))
          {
            if (GET_TEAM((TeamTypes)iI).isHasTech(eTech))
            {
              iKnownCount++;
            }

            iPossibleKnownCount++;
          }
        }
      }
    }

    iTechTradeKnownPercent = AI_techTradeKnownPercent();

    iTechTradeKnownPercent *= std::max(0, (GC.getHandicapInfo(GET_TEAM(eTeam).getHandicapType()).getTechTradeKnownModifier() + 100));
    iTechTradeKnownPercent /= 100;
    
    iTechTradeKnownPercent *= AI_getTechMonopolyValue(eTech, eTeam);
    iTechTradeKnownPercent /= 100;

    if ((iPossibleKnownCount > 0) ? (((iKnownCount * 100) / iPossibleKnownCount) < iTechTradeKnownPercent) : (iTechTradeKnownPercent > 0))
    {
      return DENIAL_TECH_MONOPOLY;
    }

iKnownCount and iPossibleKnownCount look at all players that the AI whom we are talking to (let's say that we are talking to Vicky) knows, excluding the AI that we are talking to (so, excluding Vicky) and the player that is talking to said AI (so, excluding us).

iKnownCount specifically looks at those players which Vicky knows and that know the tech (minus Vicky and us)

iPossibleKnownCount specifically looks at those players which Vicky knows (minus Vicky and us)

MAX_CIV_TEAMS means that every team will be checked, with each pass through the for loop using the "iI" counter variable

isAlive() makes sure that we're only counting players that are alive, so presumably, if an AI learned Feudalism and then we killed off that AI, it would be a good thing, as other AIs wouldn't be able to use the dead AI's knowledge of Feudalism to make that tech easier to trade around amongst each other.

getID() seems to be the AI itself. So, if we are talking to Vicky, then getID() refers to Vicky. In this case, we see that "iI" ensures that it is not Vicky.

eTeam seems to be the player that is being spoken to. So, if we are the one talking to Vicky, then eTeam refers to us. Again, we see that "iI" ensures that it is not us.

isHasMet is probably exactly what it says... only count players that the AI that we are talking to, such as Vicky, actually knows. One factor that we can't be sure about here is whether or not Vicky (or Cathy or whomever we want to trade with) actually knows the AI that we do not know. I am going to say that it is a good bet that Cathy knows that Unknown AI, since she got Hinduism spread to her, but that's not a guarantee. Still, that other AI does have Hinduism, so there is even a small chance that this other AI also has learned Monotheism. In fact, since Vicky seems willing to trade with us while only knowing Ragnar, it is probably almost certain that she knows the Unknown AI (if I can finish wading through this formula we should be able to know for certain if I am right here).

isHasTech is probably exactly what it says, too... which is: Does the player, which is not the player that we are talking to (not Vicky) and not the player doing the talking (not us) have knowledge of the tech? If yes, both iKnownCount and iPossibleKnownCount are incremented. If no, iKnownCount does not change but iPossibleKnownCount is incremented.

AI_techTradeKnownPercent() seems to simply return the iTechTradeKnownPercent value... for a team of players, it grabs the average value of the team members, but with only 1 player per team, that's the same as grabbing the AI's iTechTradeKnownPercent value.

std:max means get the maximum value out of all of the values being compared

The values being compared for the maximum value are 0 (zero) and another number.

Part of that other number grabs a Handicap value from the CIV4HandicapInfo.xml file, specifically the iTechTradeKnownModifier value. This value is 100 for Settler difficulty level, 50 for Chieftain, 25 for Warlord, and 0 for Noble and above. Since we're on Emperor difficulty, that means that getTechTradeKnownModifier() returns 0 for us. Since each other AIs play on Noble difficulty level, getTechTradeKnownModifier() also returns 0 for them. The other part of that number is that 100 gets added to it. 0 + 100 = 100, pretty simple, right?

So, all that happens in these two lines:
Code:
iTechTradeKnownPercent *= std::max(0, (GC.getHandicapInfo(GET_TEAM(eTeam).getHandicapType()).getTechTradeKnownModifier() + 100));
    iTechTradeKnownPercent /= 100;
is that the iTechTradeKnownPercent value gets multiplied by 100 and then divided by 100... i.e. the result does not change except when a player is playing on a really easy difficulty level. Here's one of the many reasons why when we played XOTM games where the AIs were set to Settler-level difficulty by editing the World Builder file that it was extremely hard to compete with them (I remember one such game where NO ONE won it).

Anyway, it is nice to know that the other AIs will be treated equally as us in terms of the use of the iTechTradeKnownPercent values.

getTechMonopolyValue is one beast of a function. I'll spoiler it here:
Spoiler :
Code:
int CvTeamAI::AI_getTechMonopolyValue(TechTypes eTech, TeamTypes eTeam) const
{
  int iValue = 0;
  int iI;
  
  bool bWarPlan = (getAnyWarPlanCount(eTeam) > 0);
  
  for (iI = 0; iI < GC.getNumUnitClassInfos(); iI++)
  {
    UnitTypes eLoopUnit = ((UnitTypes)GC.getUnitClassInfo((UnitClassTypes)iI).getDefaultUnitIndex());

    if (eLoopUnit != NO_UNIT)
    {
      if (isTechRequiredForUnit((eTech), eLoopUnit))
      {
        if (isWorldUnitClass((UnitClassTypes)iI))
        {
          iValue += 50;
        }
        
        if (GC.getUnitInfo(eLoopUnit).getPrereqAndTech() == eTech)
        {
          int iNavalValue = 0;
          
          int iCombatRatio = (GC.getUnitInfo(eLoopUnit).getCombat() * 100) / std::max(1, GC.getGameINLINE().getBestLandUnitCombat());
          if (iCombatRatio > 50)
          {
            iValue += ((bWarPlan ? 100 : 50) * (iCombatRatio - 40)) / 50;;
          }

          switch (GC.getUnitInfo(eLoopUnit).getDefaultUnitAIType())
          {
          case UNITAI_UNKNOWN:
          case UNITAI_ANIMAL:
          case UNITAI_SETTLE:
          case UNITAI_WORKER:
          break;

          case UNITAI_ATTACK:
          case UNITAI_ATTACK_CITY:
          case UNITAI_COLLATERAL:
            iValue += bWarPlan ? 50 : 20;
            break;

          case UNITAI_PILLAGE:
          case UNITAI_RESERVE:
          case UNITAI_COUNTER:
          case UNITAI_PARADROP:
          case UNITAI_CITY_DEFENSE:
          case UNITAI_CITY_COUNTER:
          case UNITAI_CITY_SPECIAL:
            iValue += bWarPlan ? 40 : 15;
            break;


          case UNITAI_EXPLORE:
          case UNITAI_MISSIONARY:
            break;

          case UNITAI_PROPHET:
          case UNITAI_ARTIST:
          case UNITAI_SCIENTIST:
          case UNITAI_GENERAL:
          case UNITAI_MERCHANT:
          case UNITAI_ENGINEER:
            break;

          case UNITAI_SPY:
            break;

          case UNITAI_ICBM:
            iValue += bWarPlan ? 80 : 40;
            break;

          case UNITAI_WORKER_SEA:
            break;

          case UNITAI_ATTACK_SEA:
            iNavalValue += 50;
            break;

          case UNITAI_RESERVE_SEA:
          case UNITAI_ESCORT_SEA:
            iNavalValue += 30;
            break;

          case UNITAI_EXPLORE_SEA:
            iValue += GC.getGame().circumnavigationAvailable() ? 100 : 0;
            break;

          case UNITAI_ASSAULT_SEA:
            iNavalValue += 60;
            break;

          case UNITAI_SETTLER_SEA:
          case UNITAI_MISSIONARY_SEA:
          case UNITAI_SPY_SEA:
            break;

          case UNITAI_CARRIER_SEA:
          case UNITAI_MISSILE_CARRIER_SEA:
            iNavalValue += 40;
            break;

          case UNITAI_PIRATE_SEA:
            iNavalValue += 20;
            break;

          case UNITAI_ATTACK_AIR:
          case UNITAI_DEFENSE_AIR:
            iValue += bWarPlan ? 60 : 30;
            break;

          case UNITAI_CARRIER_AIR:
            iNavalValue += 40;
            break;

          case UNITAI_MISSILE_AIR:
            iValue += bWarPlan ? 40 : 20;
            break;

          default:
            FAssert(false);
            break;
          }
          
          if (iNavalValue > 0)
          {
            if (AI_isAnyCapitalAreaAlone())
            {
              iValue += iNavalValue / 2;
            }
            if (bWarPlan && !AI_isLandTarget(eTeam))
            {
              iValue += iNavalValue / 2;
            }
          }
        }
      }
    }
  }

  for (iI = 0; iI < GC.getNumBuildingInfos(); iI++)
  {
    if (isTechRequiredForBuilding(eTech, ((BuildingTypes)iI)))
    {
      CvBuildingInfo& kLoopBuilding = GC.getBuildingInfo((BuildingTypes)iI);
      if (kLoopBuilding.getReligionType() == NO_RELIGION)
      {
        iValue += 30;
      }
      if (isWorldWonderClass((BuildingClassTypes)kLoopBuilding.getBuildingClassType()))
      {
        if (!(GC.getGameINLINE().isBuildingClassMaxedOut((BuildingClassTypes)kLoopBuilding.getBuildingClassType())))
        {
          iValue += 50;
        }
      }
    }
  }

  for (iI = 0; iI < GC.getNumProjectInfos(); iI++)
  {
    if (GC.getProjectInfo((ProjectTypes)iI).getTechPrereq() == eTech)
    {
      if (isWorldProject((ProjectTypes)iI))
      {
        if (!(GC.getGameINLINE().isProjectMaxedOut((ProjectTypes)iI)))
        {
          iValue += 100;
        }
      }
      else
      {
        iValue += 50;
      }
    }
  }
  
  return iValue;
  
  
}

The heart of that funciton seems to rely on getAnyWarPlanCount, which is a function that is found in the CvTeam.cpp file. The player that gets passed to the getAnyWarPlanCount function is us, or whichever player is trying to get the tech in trade. Here is the function:
Code:
int CvTeam::getAnyWarPlanCount(bool bIgnoreMinors) const
{
  int iCount;
  int iI;

  iCount = 0;

  for (iI = 0; iI < MAX_CIV_TEAMS; iI++)
  {
    if (GET_TEAM((TeamTypes)iI).isAlive())
    {
      if (!bIgnoreMinors || !(GET_TEAM((TeamTypes)iI).isMinorCiv()))
      {
        if (AI_getWarPlan((TeamTypes)iI) != NO_WARPLAN)
        {
          FAssert(iI != getID());
          iCount++;
        }
      }
    }
  }

  FAssert(iCount >= getAtWarCount(bIgnoreMinors));

  return iCount;
}

Okay, I'm starting to get overwhelmed here.

We could just make an assumption that the human player can't have a "war plan," which might or might not be the right kind of assumption to make. Another possible assumption could be that since no AI currently has their hands full and since no player is at war with any other player, then no "war plan" exists.

Whatever. The point seems to be that a war plan could increase the iValue value in the AI_getTechMonopolyValue function.

Then it looks like the AI_getTechMonopolyValue function factors in units, buildings, Wonders, and Projects that are unlocked by the tech in question.

I'm a bit lost at this point, though, in the intricacies of AI_getTechMonopolyValue function and I'm just going to ignore it for now. What it seems to boil down to is that different things unlocked by a tech could affect the default willingness of an AI to trade a tech, but I could be wrong.


Anyway, continuing on, we have this little bit:
Code:
    if ((iPossibleKnownCount > 0) ? (((iKnownCount * 100) / iPossibleKnownCount) < iTechTradeKnownPercent) : (iTechTradeKnownPercent > 0))
    {
      return DENIAL_TECH_MONOPOLY;
    }

If iPossibleKnownCount were 0, meaning that the AI that you are trying to trade with (Vicky) doesn't know anyone other than you, then we'd use the bit after the colon:
(iTechTradeKnownPercent > 0)

Ignoring the effect of the AI_getTechMonopolyValue function, since I'm still not sure how to figure it out, I believe what we are seeing here is that "if you're not trying to trade with Mansa, then an isolated AI will return "true," and if "true" is returned, then then you will get a DENIAL_TECH_MONOPOLY (i.e. you can't get the tech).

But, since we know that Vicky knows at least Ragnar, (iTechTradeKnownPercent > 0) IS true, so we need to look at whether or not the following code returns true or false, with a "true" value being a denial to trade the tech due to it being treated as a monopoly tech:
Code:
((iKnownCount * 100) / iPossibleKnownCount) < iTechTradeKnownPercent)

So, again, ignoring the effect of the AI_getTechMonopolyValue function, and assuming that Vicky only knows Ragnar, then Iron Working would be:
((1 * 100 / 1) < 30) = (100 < 30) which returns false, so she would trade with us

Similarly, ignoring the effect of the AI_getTechMonopolyValue function, and assuming that Vicky only knows Ragnar, then Polytheism would be:
((0 * 100 / 1) < 30) = (0 < 30) which returns true, so she would refuse to trade with us

Therefore, either the AI_getTechMonopolyValue function is really important, or maybe she knows the Unknown AI. Let's see what numbers we would get if she knew the Unknown AI:
((1 * 100 / 2) < 30) = (50 < 30) which returns false, so she would trade with us

Actually, if we think about it, the AI_getTechMonopolyValue function does not appear to return negative values, and therefore, as long as it is not returning a value of "0" (which I am not even sure if it would be possible to return), then any value that it returns (even if it is less than 100 but as long as it is greater than 0) would leave iTechTradeKnownPercent as a positive value. As such, in our case above with only Vicky knowing Ragnar when looking at Polytheism, we'd still have (0 < {a number bigger than zero}), which would return true... but that would mean that Polytheism is not tradeable.

Therefore, assuming that the AI_getTechMonopolyValue function is not returning a value of "0" for Polytheism (which may never happen but even if it does it seems unlikely to happen since Polytheism unlocks a Wonder), then we can safely conclude that Vicky knows the Unknown AI.


So, again ignoring the AI_getTechMonopolyValue function, what sorts of numbers would we see for, say, Vicky knowing Metal Casting and Code of Laws?

Well, for either Metal Casting or Code of Laws:
Let's say that she just knows Ragnar + the Unknown AI:
((1 * 100 / 2) < 30) = (50 < 30) returns false, so it looks like she would be willing to trade around either tech

Let's say that she meets one more AI that is not Willem (and therefore knows another AI that does not know either of these techs):
((1 * 100 / 3) < 30) = (33.33 < 30) still returns false, so it looks like she would still be willing to trade around either tech

Of course, if she meets 2 more AIs that are not Willem, we'd see:
((1 * 100 / 4) < 30) = (25 < 30) which returns true, so then she'd say that not enough other players know the tech

If Vicky meets everyone, then she'd hang onto Code of Laws if only she and we had it, but what about Metal Casting, where Willem would also know it?
((2 * 100 / 5) < 30) = (40 < 30) which returns false, so she would be willing to trade Metal Casting around to anyone


As for Willem, he currently knows Isabella, Ragnar, Cathy, and us (as well as possible the Unknown AI).

Assuming that he does not know the Unknown AI, and if we don't trade Metal Casting to Vicky, will he be willing to trade around Metal Casting?
((1 * 100 / 3) < 15) = (33.33 < 15) which returns false, so he would be willing to trade Metal Casting around to anyone


Now, Vicky has a reasonably high chance of self-teching Metal Casting, as that tech is listed with a "35" value for her (incidentally, she has a value of "10" for Machinery).

So, if Vicky, who we know (unless the AI_getTechMonopolyValue function can return a value of 0 for Polytheism, which I highly doubt) knows both Ragnar and the Unknown AI, ends up meeting Willem without meeting anyone else, decides to start researching Metal Casting, then she could feasibly get sufficient Flasks invested in Metal Casting in order for that tech to "equal" Code of Law's value, and thus she could trade away Code of Laws <-> the rest of Metal Casting with Willem. Of course, if she meets a different AI before she meets Willem and then meets Willem, this danger doesn't exist, but it is a potential danger.

Vicky has chance of going after Machinery, so who knows, she might tech it for us?

Willem values Machinery at a value of 18, and that value is much higher than his Priesthood (5) and Monarchy (10) values.

If they both learned Machinery, then we could certainly get Machinery in trade.


So, yes, since there is a risk that if Willem were to meet Vicky and no other AI were to meet Vicky that they could swap Code of Laws and Metal Casting, it's probably better to give Metal Casting to Vicky than Code of Laws.
 
I don't think it is worth self teching currency at all. It costs 936 beakers. Taking account of the 20% bonus from alphabet this is 780 beakers. We won't have time to build any markets so the only benefit is the trade routes. With 6 cities gaining 1 trade route worth 2 commerce per turn it would take 60-65 turns of teching (depending on library bonus) to break even. Our research phase will be over well before then, so if we self teched currency we would finish teching and start warring later even in the unlikely event that we were unable to trade for it first.

I think that researching maths next would therefore be best.

I agree to skip Currency. We're already late to start our warring. We can't afford to delay forever.

What if instead of Math we start on Compass/Optics instead. If we think we can get Math in trade by then, it may be worth it... Then, once we do have Math we trade it to the last few AI that don't yet.

We need to think minimal research (i.e. max trading and no self-researching techs off that beeline) to Astronomy at this point. The longer that takes, the longer our game takes.

Regarding trades, I don't have time to dive into it tonight. I trust you guys to come to a reasonable plan there.
 
With 6 cities gaining 1 trade route worth 2 commerce per turn
That's 3 Commerce per turn, not 2, since these are Foreign Intercontinental Trade Routes.

So, instead of 780 / 12 = 65, we'd have 780 / 18 = 43.33 turns for Currency to pay itself off. Does that number change things for you?

The odds of 2 or more AIs learning Currency prior to us Lightbulbing Astronomy are quite small.

Sure, we won't be building Markets, but Currency unlocks another very important factor: the ability to get Gold in trade, either from tech trades or from Demands.

There is a good potential Gold market here to capitalize on, since many AIs often chase each other for Wonders. If we are not building a lot of Wonders, even more Gold will be available than normal, since more AIs will make it "closer to completion" of the Wonders that we do not compete for them on (which will be most Wonders).

Receiving even a small amount of Gold in trade would certainly help us, either in terms of speeding-up Research or in terms of upgrading units such as Galleys into Galleons, Axemen (which we will be able to build cheaply prior to learning Civil Service) into Macemen, etc.

As it stands, the plan is to build a Galley instead of a 3rd Trireme out of Stone City, since 2 Triremes will be sufficient to defend our waters from Barb Galleys and since we apparently wanted to use a Galley to send a Warrior or other unit (a Scout?) into AIs' lands in order to better map them out. So, we'd have at least 2 Galleys that would need upgrading into Galleons at some point, and probably a whole horde of Axemen that could use with some upgrading.


The AI's don't normally research MC for a while, therefore trading it to them is unlikely to cause them to research useful techs for us earlier. They do however research alphabet much earlier than MC, so if we trade it to them first they will research something else, which hopefully will be useful to us earlier.
So, now that I've agreed with you to trade away Metal Casting, you have switched your opinion to agree with BBP to wait a turn and trade away Alphabet? :crazyeye:

Note that Vicky has a value of "0" for Alphabet, so, barring a random number trumping her tech selections, Alphabet has the lowest priority possible of her possible tech selections. Thus, I do not believe that giving Alphabet to Vicky will help much in directing her to research different techs, other than a random number factor.

On the contrary, since Vicky has a relatively high value for Metal Casting, at 30, trading Metal Casting to Vicky can definitely help in directing her research to different techs.


Meanwhile, every AI that gets Alphabet means that there will be a lot more uncontrolled trades happening.

Keep them "selectively dumb" is my suggestion... i.e. we can give them the tools that they need to get the techs that we want (give them Math) but not the tools to play the tech trading game themselves (i.e. don't give them Alphabet).
 
What if instead of Math we start on Compass/Optics instead. If we think we can get Math in trade by then, it may be worth it... Then, once we do have Math we trade it to the last few AI that don't yet.
Compass would be the next natural "Flask dump" tech if we were to avoid going after Currency.

Optics requires Machinery, so if we push too far ahead with research, i.e. by learning Compass and then having to dump Flasks into Machinery, which would mean that getting what may very well be a Great Engineer out of Paris wouldn't be nearly as attractive of an occurence.


There's nothing to say that we can't research Compass at a 0% Science Rate, as soon as we get Iron Working in trade.


We need to think minimal research (i.e. max trading and no self-researching techs off that beeline) to Astronomy at this point. The longer that takes, the longer our game takes.
Agreed that we need to go for a minimal Research approach. The question, however, what is the minimal Research path? Will getting Currency first actually lead to a minimal Research path? Given only the additional Trade Routes, then the answer is "it comes a bit close, but not close enough." When you also factor in the Gold that we'll be able to get from the AIs? Perhaps it will be the minimal path.
 
Okay, anyway, back to the Monotheism bit.

Let's assume that Cathy does not know the Unknown AI.

Cathy knows Isabella, and Isabella has Monotheism. Cathy knows Willem and Ragnar, whom we know both do not know Monotheism.
So, again, ignoring the AI_getTechMonopolyValue function:
((1 * 100 / 3) < 20) = (33.33 < 20) which is false, so she would trade us Monotheism

Assuming that Cathy knows the Unknown AI and that the Unknown AI does not know Monotheism:
((1 * 100 / 4) < 20) = (25 < 20) which is false, so again, she would trade us Monotheism

For completion, we'll show the obvious fact that she'll trade us Monotheism even if she knows the Unknown AI and the Unknown AI knows Monotheism:
((2 * 100 / 4) < 20) = (50 < 20) which is false, so she would trade us Monotheism


Thus, Cathy should offer us Monotheism on the trading table, unless that AI_getTechMonopolyValue function throws a wrench into the gears.

The biggest fear is that every turn that we delay getting Polytheism in trade gives Cathy 1 more turn to put Flasks into Writing and/or Agriculture, meaning that Cathy will have to get something ridiculous like Metal Casting for Monotheism.
 
No one has commented on the idea of bribing Ragnar into a War with Vicky.

Now, we'd probably sour our relations on both sides if we did so, and we might encourage both sides to build additional units, both of which are bad things.

One positive thing is that Ragnar wouldn't be declaring war on us for a reasonable period of time.

I'm not really on board with the idea of dragging him into a war, but I'm not totally against the idea if someone wants to push for it.
 
Trading Alphabet is nearly always a good move. AIs will self-tech it or trade it around for Monarchy anyway, and sooner than they'll get MC or COL (after Confu is founded). To me that seems like a very easy decision, but I am often wrong.

@mdy,
Currency typically does pay off. Your calc is the worst case scenario and doesn't account for wealth-building or cash trade, as Dhoom pointed out. Currency also makes it more valid to settle further cities, past the current 6-7, due to the extra TR. Whether it gets us to Astro+CS quicker or not in this case is difficult to estimate - I suspect it can't really slow us down, but I'll admit I haven't looked at the numbers.

If we decide to skip it, then we should tech Math-Compass.

What is our actual timeline for the Philo bulb? Dhoom keeps saying we're not in a rush to get Math.

Edit: x-post
I don't like that bribe, because he won't actually do any damage at all across such a distance. We just get them both to build some units. Willem-Cathy and Ragnar-Izzy are more interesting, but it sounds like those are impossible.
 
Trading Alphabet is nearly always a good move. AIs will self-tech it or trade it around for Monarchy anyway, and sooner than they'll get MC or COL (after Confu is founded).
Is there any harm in holding onto Alphabet until an AI learns Monarchy and only then giving it to them?

While I don't mind the idea of getting Calendar and/or Construction in trade, the more non-Math techs that AIs learn, the less likely they will be to delay research on Monarchy.


Vicky, who is one of those AIs that often builds The Colossus (meaning that she is known for grabbing Metal Casting early), seems to be one of the exceptions to the rule, as she has no preference at all for Alphabet (valued at 0), while she has values of 33 for Code of Laws (but that value probably gets altered due to the lack of a Religion) and 30 for Metal Casting.


What is our actual timeline for the Philo bulb? Dhoom keeps saying we're not in a rush to get Math.
Well, it's a balancing game, right?

I mean, if next turn, we manage to have Confucianism auto-spread to either of Paris or Pig City, then we are okay to learn Math as soon as possible. The only delay in Lightbulbing then would be having the Galley ship our Confucian Missionary over to the Religionless City, so that we would have a 100% chance of spreading it, instead of an 88% chance (or whatever it is) for spreading it to a City that got Taoism in it.

However, if neither Paris nor Pig City get Confucianism via auto-spread AND if we do not want to whip out a Confucian Missionary, then getting Math early won't help in terms of the Lightbulb, since we will want to delay Lightbulbing Philosophy for as long as possible, so as to get the greatest chance for Confucianism to auto-spread.


Alternatively, if Confucianism were to auto-spread to Stone City we'd be in a good position, because I think then that everyone would agree to whip a Confucian Missionary out of there, at which point we could send Marble City's Missionary to Paris and would use Stone City's Missionary in Pig City, such that Taoism would probably end up being founded in Copper City.


If we decide to skip it, then we should tech Math-Compass.
I agree. If we choose not to self-tech Currency, then we want to learn Math as soon as possible, after which we can donate Math to every single AI (except for the Unknown AI, since we can't gift a tech to an AI that we don't know). That way, the AIs will have a greater chance of researching Currency for us, although I am still dubious that they would research it for us. Each of Cathy, Isabella, and Ragnar have a "0" for Currency, so realistically, we'd have to have both Vicky and Willem research Currency for us if we were to have a chance of getting that tech in trade.

In contrast, the only 0-value for our current set of AIs for both of Construction and Calendar is Ragnar's 0 for Calendar.


I don't like that bribe, because he won't actually do any damage at all across such a distance. We just get them both to build some units. Willem-Cathy and Ragnar-Izzy are more interesting, but it sounds like those are impossible.
Okay, it's fine to avoid bribing Ragnar into war. I just wanted to make sure that the idea got some consideration. We can totally skip doing so.
 
Willem-Cathy and Ragnar-Izzy are more interesting, but it sounds like those are impossible.
Oh, I forgot to comment on this part.

Willem, as we know, is not going to be easily bribed: we'd need at LEAST +8 more positive Diplo modifiers with him, with only a further +1 being possible from Shared Religion. It's out.

But what about Cathy? She, too, would require us to be Friendly with her. She, of course, is notorious in that she can be bribed against ANYBODY, even another player that she is Friendly with, but is getting her up to Friendly likely? Not really... she's at -1 with us and was still only Cautious at +1.

Actually, I should say that all AIs that we know are Cautious with us at +1.


Ragnar would gladly go to war with Isabella if we could split up their Religious-lovefest.

Isabella MAY convert if she gets Judaism to auto-spread to new Cities that she builds.

Ragnar DID get Confucianism in one of his Cities, so he MAY convert.

If either of them converts, then Ragnar will be bribeable against Isabella, as he only needs to be Cautious towards us and will go to war against any AI that he is Cautious or lower towards. It's the fact that he is Pleased towards Isabella that is stopping that potential war bribe.


Isabella would go to war at a request if she were Pleased with us, and would go to war with anyone that she isn't Friendly with. This situation actually works against us, as if we declare war on Ragnar and he has excess techs, she could be very easily bribed against us.



What about Vicky? Well, as you said, you don't really care, but she has identical values as Isabella. So, she'd have to be Pleased with us and we'd have to ask her to declare war on someone that she is Pleased or less with. If she picks up Confucianism, then this situation may be possible, but again, it could work against us in the future, with Confucian Willem then possibly being able to bribe Vicky against us if we were to declare war on him.
 
Okay, so we have several outstanding issues here:
1. We know that we want to trade a tech to Vicky. That tech can be one of:
Metal Casting
Code of Laws
Alphabet

2. We need to decide if we're going to research Currency next, if we will still consider Currency if we research Math next, or if we are going to skip research on Currency altogether

3. Other minor and somewhat related issues are still hanging around, such as:
a) Do we consider switching into Organized Religion (after getting Monotheism in trade after a couple of rounds of tech trading) so that we can guarantee that we will have Confucianism in our 4 primary Great-Person-Generation Cities?

b) Do we consider switching into Caste System early if we do see Confucianism spreading to one of Paris or Pigs City, such that all currently-planned whipping actions will be completed but Copper City will be unable to whip? The primary purpose is to get a bit more value out of Gold City's citizen that will otherwise become unhappy

c) Do we consider simply starting to build a Settler in Gold City on the turn before it becomes unhappy, then later finish the Trireme and growing once the whipping unhappiness dissipates, and only much later finish the Settler (i.e. starting on it again after the Trireme is built)?


Point 3 is mostly tied to our random luck with the auto-spreading of Confucianism (or lack thereof), so there's probably not much to decide. Really, that point is about us having a general awareness of some issues to keep in mind that we'll need to pay attention to over the course of the next few turns.



Points 1 and 2 are inter-related. For example, it could be argued that it is going to take a while for the AIs to learn Math, so we might as well learn it ourselves. Following that line of argument, if we want Currency, we might as well plan to research it ourselves, too. However, if we went for Currency first, we'd buy the AIs even more time to self-tech Math, while we aimed at growing our Cities that 1 additional population point that would let them hire an extra Specialist until near-starvation.

It could also be argued that if we are not even going to try to go for Currency that going for Math and gifting it around as soon as possible is a good approach.

But then, it could also be argued that we have a bit of time before we need Math, so we could delay by dumping Research at 0% into Compass (after getting Iron Working in trade). The hope would be that the AIs will get Math for us in short order.


I am not really a fan of giving-away Alphabet until we have to (i.e. until one AI knows both Alphabet and at least one of Monarchy's pre-requisites--a situation which does not currently exist--AND another AI learns Monarchy).

However, there is a minor argument that says if an AI knows both Math and Alphabet, it will have a slightly greater chance of going for Currency. This situation would only really apply to Vicky and Willem, since the others treat Currency as a "0" in terms of a tech-selection. So, if there were to be a case made for giving Alphabet to Vicky, this point would be it. The danger, here, though, is that we'd change the status quo: we'd then have an AI that would both know Alphabet and would have at least one of the pre-requisites to Monarchy, meaning that we would be forced to give away Alphabet to any AI (likely Isabella) that learns Monarchy, while such an AI having Alphabet can only really hurt us, as it is unlikely to encourage Isabella to research Currency while it would certainly speed-up the global tech pace (perhaps having her give away Religious techs and getting others to Feudalism faster, etc).

So, what I see as the strongest argument for trading Alphabet to Vicky has a hole in it that we'd have to give away Alphabet to AIs that we otherwise wouldn't have to do so, thus I do not see this point as being strong enough to give away Alphabet.

There is also the argument that if we WERE to give away Code of Laws, Alphabet, and a quickly-self-teched Math to Vicky that she MIGHT spawn a Great Scientist and beat us to Taoism. However, I also don't see this potential situation being a possibility until AFTER we know Math--Vicky having Alphabet and Code of Laws without Math is meaningless for this point, so we might as well wait on gifting these techs until either she learns Math or we do. Therefore, I don't see it as a valid reason to trade away either Code of Laws or Alphabet right now.


As for Code of Laws, if my calculations are correct, then in the worst case scenario where Vicky meets Willem but no one else, she could easily trade Code of Laws with him in exchange for a partially-researched Metal Casting.

So, I'm still pretty strongly favouring a Metal Casting trade to Vicky.


As for whether we need to self-tech Math, we could certainly wait one more turn to decide. For example, it would help to see what Willem sets his Research to next. If he picks Math, then we may have a small chance of getting Math in trade, as long as 1 other AI researched Math, too. Note that the "other AI" could not be Vicky until Willem and Vicky meet, so that's another point against hoping for an AI trade of Currency--those two would have to not only both choose to research Currency but also meet each other before we could get the tech in trade. As for the small chance on Math, I say so because we'd pretty much need for Cathy to immediately decide to go after Math after she gets Writing and completes research on whatever tech that she is currently researching, or else have one of Isabella or Ragnar go after Math; either that or have Vicky learn Math AND meet Willem.


Well, what do the numbers say?
Cathy has Math at 50, so she actually has a reasonable chance of going after it.
Isabella has Math at 0, yuck.
Ragnar has Math listed as 10, which isn't very promising but is at least a bit possible.
Vicky has Math at 10, again not very promising.
Willem is at 30, which is pretty good.

However, if Willem DOESN'T research Math, and if he picks a tech that will take 10+ turns, then we probably will have relatively low odds of getting Math in trade within the next 15 turns, which is our approximate timeline for getting it in trade.

Math will take 7 turns for us to self-tech. But, if we feel that we don't have a good shot of getting it in trade, we might as well just bite the bullet and research it quickly ourselves, so that:
a) We can trade it around to increase the chances of AIs researching the techs that we want then to research
AND
b) If we choose to go for Currency, we'll get research on Currency at a discount


Therefore, I am tempted to wait 1 more turn on deciding which tech to go for next and am willing to say, if we are okay to get Iron Working this turn, that we set Research to 0% on Compass, or that if we want to wait 1 turn to get Iron Working (in the case that we agree to use Alphabet to get Iron Working), that we set Research to 0% on Math for 1 turn (Machinery is maxed-out in terms of pre-Lightbulbing-Flasks invested).

Then, after that turn, if Willem isn't going for Math and isn't going for a tech that will only take a few turns to Research, I'll push for a 100% Science Rate on Math, so that we can "rip the bandaid off" and get the Research on Math over and done with, allowing us to trade it around. We could then push off the Currency-yes-or-no debate for a little while.

If Willem does go for Math, then I'll be pushing strongly for Currency, since we'll aim to have gotten both Alphabet and Math in trade, meaning that Currency will be "free" in terms of our initial plans.
 
I'd trade metal casting to Vicky. It's not going to help her immensely and she may try to build the Colossus (= fewer hammers for units).

What is our current time table for preparing an invading army? Are we going to wait until maces/galleons to hit? Or are we going to start something earlier? If Vicky still doesn't have metal, I'm somewhat tempted to try hitting her with swords.

As a side note, this map truly is unfortunate for us :( The AI is dumb as rocks and you can probably conquer the known AI with just swords/axes/pults...
 
Ok, trade MC. It's not a big deal.

I think we're dreaming if we wanna avoid LB's on our timescale. We'll be attacking post-1AD with a relatively low production base on Emperor. Given the tricky logistics in getting reinforcements, we won't really be in position to attack without some insurance against a sudden Feudalism / LB upgrade from the target AI anyway.

Assuming we have 30t of research after Math-Currency, and extra TR's are 3cpt, and we have an average of 7 cities (current 5 + Copper + Fur), we trade 669 base beakers for 630 commerce. That seems better than break even to me, and there's still cash trading and wealth building to consider.

In total we have about 4600-4700 base beakers needed, if we assume Math-Currency and 2xGS on Astro, GS on Philo and either GM on CS or GE on Machinery. If we want this done by 1 AD (arbitrary date, I know), we need to average 115bpt for the next 40t. That seems more than possible to me, especially once we have Caste and Rep going. Mitchum's rough spreadsheet from earlier this week shows the 750gpp GP appearing on T174, which is 10 AD. So I suppose this is our timeline? Can it be sped up? Estimating the base research rate from here is quite difficult, but faster seems possible at a glance. Cash flow will determine this as much as anything.
 
What is our current time table for preparing an invading army? Are we going to wait until maces/galleons to hit? Or are we going to start something earlier? If Vicky still doesn't have metal, I'm somewhat tempted to try hitting her with swords.

As a side note, this map truly is unfortunate for us :( The AI is dumb as rocks and you can probably conquer the known AI with just swords/axes/pults...
I don't see how we can run 5 specialists per city and still mount an army.
 
Mitchum's rough spreadsheet from earlier this week shows the 750gpp GP appearing on T174, which is 10 AD. So I suppose this is our timeline? Can it be sped up?

I put in the base number of specialists presented by Dhoomstriker. If we starve our cities, I'm sure we could pull that date in, but maybe not by too much.

I'm on board with researching Currency now. I think that it will speed up our research in the long run, especially if we can get some good gold out of our tech trades and gpt for resource trades to allow 100% research.
 
I don't think we have much to fear from longbows, if speeding up the AI's tech allows us to stop research a few turns earlier I think it is a reasonable trade off, so I still prefer to trade alphabet before metal casting. Other AI's will also be trading it around fairly soon anyway if we don't which is less likely with MC.

Even with 3 commerce trade routes self teching currency can't pay off unless we get significant amounts of gold in trades which we would not get if we waited for it to become available for trade. On balance I still think teching maths first would be better on average.
 
I agree with you on Alphabet, but it's 4 vs 2. Let's call it MC and proceed.

Currency doesn't quite pay off by end of research on the strength of TR's alone, but it's also not a major loss. At worst, we lose about 100b, I think, without accounting for cash from trades. I'd still prefer to self-tech it after Math. In any case, if we can agree on Math, that gives us something to do for 7t or so, and we can continue the Currency discussion after.

BTW, the 20% discount from Math is actually not even worth more than the extra TR. It's 111 base beakers vs. approximately 6 cities * 3cpt * 6t = 108c. That's close enough to decide on Math first, I think.
 
I agree with you on Alphabet, but it's 4 vs 2. Let's call it MC and proceed.
Thanks for doing the count!

So, it will be a trade with Vicky of Metal Casting <-> Iron Working + Polytheism.

I will set Research back to Math at a 0% Science Rate.

On the following turn, if Willem is Researching Math, then we can go back to debating which tech to Research next (Currency versus Compass), but if he picks something other than Math, I'll set Research to 100% and finish off Research on Math. If we can't see what Willem is Researching, then we'll have to discuss the situation (this possibility shouldn't happen, but he's been spending Espionage Points on us, so I suppose that it's possible).

Also, on the following turn, if I can get a trade with Cathy of Writing + Agriculture <-> Monotheism, then I will make the trade. If I can't make that trade, then we'll have to decide what to give her.


Note that a Missionary costs 60 Hammers and Gold City produces 4 Hammers per Turn. After 4 turns of building a Confucian Missionary, we will have 16 Hammers invested and the Missionary should become a 1-pop-whip.

So, we do have some leeway time in terms of deciding whether or not we're going to switch into Organized Religion. However, we want to do so at the latest 5 turns prior to completing The Pyramids, so that when The Pyramids are done, we won't have to wait any turns to Revolt into Representation + Pacifism + Caste System. Although it can be argued that we will not SAVE TURNS on Revolting if we revolt on different turns, there is a 5-turn-delay if we don't revolt at the same time, so either we need to revolt 5 or more turns in advance or else on the same turn as each other.


In Gold City, the 4 turns of investing Hammers + 1 turn of whipping and waiting for the Confucian Missionary to be completed works out precisely to be 5 turns anyway. The Pyramids are due on Turn 143. I'm thinking that this fact means that we have to revolt on Turn 137 or 138 into Organized Religion if we want to self-build a Confucian Missionary (I'll say Turn 137 unless someone tests it out, as I don't want to be wrong and goof things up by a turn)... I'm not sure how the extra turn of Anarchy from revolting into Organized Religion affects things, but I'm GUESSING that it would mean that waiting until Turn 138 would be okay, but until we run a test, we'll say that Turn 137 is our cut-off date.

Right now, before advancing the turn, it is Turn 132.

So, we have roughly 5 turns' worth of auto-spreading luck.

Since we may have to use this Whipping-of-a-Confucian-Missionary approach, I will intentionally grow Gold City into Unhappiness (which happens in 3 turns) as even a smaller amount of growth is still regrowth towards that population point that we may need to whip away. Gold City is at Size 7 right now (and will be at Size 8 in 3 turns).

No, it's not ideal to have to whip away a population point that we hadn't planned to whip, but we've gotten by so far on luck several times without, say, having to whip an emergency Trireme, so maybe we're due to lose a population point via whipping.
 
I have made the Metal Casting <-> Iron Working + Polytheism trade with Vicky and she gave us a +1 Fair and Forthright Trading diplo modifier.

Research has been set to Math at 0%, Paris is building The Pyramids again so that it can grow to Size 7 and then 3-pop-whip Settler 6 next turn.
 
Back
Top Bottom