SGOTM 13 - One Short Straw

EDIT: Barb galleys aren't likely to spawn till well after 1000BC.

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Here's a map of the barb galley dangers. Gold looks to be relatively safe, if it's landlocked to the west. We would only need a sentry on the deer island to protect both Gold and Furs from the north.

Most exposed will be Marble and Pigs. This is another good reason to build the ORacle in Marble to get its 2nd border expansion asap.

Settling on the copper solves all barb galley spawning in that area.

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That little island south of SIP is a PITA, but also solved by Marble's 2nd border expansion. Anyone want to wager it has horses?
 

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Are barbs switched on in the test game, I didn't have any problems with them during my tests?

Is it the total number of unowned water tiles which contribute to the barb galley creation, or is it just the unowned number of coastal tiles.
 
Nice going Dhoom--very well executed!

[*]Level: Notionally Emperor, but this is a difficult map for warring.
[*]Map: You start surrounded by tiny islands (you are after all in exile). Your European opponents have rather more land available.



Seems to me our top goal is astro--even if it's possible to win w/o it's likely quicker with it anyway. Vicky not having any contacts raises the possibility that we're semi-isolated.


I would think we'd get more benefit from whipping on this map than caste/pacifism but that's a guess.

I think to some extent we need to guess at the overall length of the game to determine whether things like courthouses or the 'mids will pay off.

 
I can get a machinery slingshot at 1025BC at the moment. I would take the risk. If any team does this and it pays of they will have a massive advantage over those that don't.
Well I think it's a bit of a game theory question on this. If there were 10 teams in contention, then I would agree. However, we have a strong team here and most of the rest of the field will not be in contention. The real question is do the few strong competitors take the gamble.

We would recover some of the lost beakers by getting MC over Machinery by getting to other techs earlier.

I do agree that events so far would indicate a late AI build date.
 
bbp, just out of curiosity, what were your calcs that convinced you that 3 AIs have built second cities? I had a bit of trouble getting all the numbers to match up, so I wasn't sure if there were 2 or 3 new cities.
Rival best = 151 = Pop6 (150) and Pop 1 (1)
Rival average = 99833 --> 599 total
Rival worst = 21 = Pop3

From top 5 cities, we know that there are 3 pop5 and 2 pop6 cities.

Add up all the ones we know:

151 + 21 + 3*90 + 150 = 592

That leaves 7, which could be either 7 Pop1 cities or 1 Pop2 and 1 Pop1. 7 Pop1 cities seems impossible, as neither Victoria, nor Rival Best & Rival Worst have those, and the other Pop6 could only have 1 (otherwise it would set a higher Rival Best), so they would equal 2AI with 4 cities each.

3. If bbp is correct, TotCities is currently 7+3=10, which is not greater than (3/2)*7 = 10.
Except DanF's formula says >= ;)

EDIT:
I don't think I've seen barb galleys nearly this early even on Imm/Dei. According to DanF, their research rate is 3%(CivsWhoKnowTech/TotalCivs). In our test game only 3 AI know Sailing at this stage, and we've established that their pace is better there than in real game. I think it's reasonable to assume that they need 100t min from the date the first civ discovered Sailing, no? That would put us close to 1000 BC, which corresponds more closely with my experience.
 
@Dhoom: all danf excellent posts are already in the OSS library ;) (have a look at the "barbarians" link ;))

Going through the new posts currently and will resume testings afterward. I 'd like to draft a short PPP including most of the early decisions (untill the point where most our variants differ).
 
@Dhoom:

iirc I used one coast at size 6 (over a cottage ;)) while slow building the third settler. I always worked food then GHs then coast in that order. THe difference could come from the additional commerce I got from oversea TRs with the russians (won't have it in the real save untill we discover a coastal english city and OB with Vicky).

I will update the spreadsheet shortly for my variant so u can have a look anyway.

Meanwhile here you will find the Excel sheet I was talking about yesterday (credits to Niklas and Renata).

First page is a database of all tile values, then u have game settings, then each page computes a city. Tell me if u like it (actually all people interested in can chime in :p), and if u 'd like me to use it.

@mdy: good points (about building Oracle in satelite city if we are to go for machinery or philo AND bulb like crazy). We need to evaluate back up plans imo if we are to attempt an ambitious sling though.

... finishing reading the thread now :eekdance:

edit: I was told by bbp that we wanted to go through poly to avoid opening the philo bulb path to lock astro: actually I like Dhoom's suggestion to go for early philo (pacifism). I have the feeling it will net a faster astro anyway. Gonna open all the saves now.
 
Ignore the rubbish in the spoilers. Barb galleys aren't likely to spawn till well after 1000BC.
Spoiler :
Except DanF's formula says >= ;)
And he's right:
Spoiler :
Code:
if (getNumCivCities() < ((countCivPlayersAlive() * 3) / 2) && !isOption(GAMEOPTION_ONE_CITY_CHALLENGE))
	{
		bAnimals = true;
	}
Based on the Demo Screen change in land ownership, we know that the three cities could only have been built on T59, T63, and T67. So that means that condition was fulfilled on T67.

EDIT:
I don't think I've seen barb galleys nearly this early even on Imm/Dei. According to DanF, their research rate is 3%(CivsWhoKnowTech/TotalCivs). In our test game only 3 AI know Sailing at this stage, and we've established that their pace is better there than in real game. I think it's reasonable to assume that they need 100t min from the date the first civ discovered Sailing, no? That would put us close to 1000 BC, which corresponds more closely with my experience.
As for the barb research on Fishing-Sailing. Assuming that Vicky is the only AI to research it so far, the barbs will know it by T73 at the latest:
Code:
FISHING (93b)
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93*6%=5bpt+1=6bpt (Izzy+Vicky start with Fishing)
93*9%=8bpt+1=9bpt (Izzy+Vicky+OSS)

10t*6bpt=60b
 4t*9bpt=36b

Fishing done on T14 (I don't know if  barbs get a discount or a penalty.)

SAILING (234b)
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Note: Judging from her power graph, Vicky researched Sailing on T51 at the latest.

234*3%= 7bpt+1= 8bpt (Vicky)
234*6%=14bpt+1=15bpt (Vicky + OSS)

36t* 1bpt= 36b  (T15-T51)
18t* 8bpt=144b
 4t*15bpt= 60b

Sailing done on T73 at the latest.
The thing to do would be to follow barb galley spawning through Worldbuilder, because the galleys spawn and unless they happen to be within 7 tiles of fish nets, then then just piddle around, going back and forth randomly, rarely venturing more than a few tiles from their original spawning location. THis is what DanF called 5. AI_patrol().
 
^^ It's 234bpt * 3% * (CivsWhoKnowSailing / TotalCivs), if I understand correctly. And that's more in line with what Silu was saying about barb Feudalism in SG11, IIRC.
 
I see that I'm on deck. Can I be bumped down a couple of slots? I will have more time around the 10th of april and onwards.
 
I actually just removed the "On Deck" from my game summary to avoid confusion. Should leave it to shyuhe. Think you were originally listed next, but it's totally flexible.
 
On game:
TBH, I'm having a bit of trouble keeping up with the discussion right now and contributing. I think that we could use some sort of clarification and summary of all of our early goals. There is a difference between "earliest Astro = best" and "relatively early Astro would be a strong move on this map". If we set earliest Astro as a primary goal, stuff like early Caste/Pac and grabbing most beakers with Oracle obviously seems attractive. If we wanna expand and grow aggressively at the same time, it doesn't appeal nearly as much - we need Slavery, Colossus and Alpha/Currency more than anything, IMHO.
 
Here is a philo save at 900 bc: includes half of MC done, a GS ready since some turns, 2 libs, 2 galleys and same cities as mdy's save.

I'll try to improve it a bit a put it on a spread sheet format.

@BBP: I agree, we are a bit testing everything and its contrary right now.

edit:
@mdy: can u tell me your micro for the Oracle (and which turn you settled marble city)? I could improve my date a lot as I had COL for some time but couldn't get the oracle done earlier.

edit2: 2 exploring wbs as well (the initial ones) and the libs are in Paris and Orleans.
 

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@Dhoom: all danf excellent posts are already in the OSS library ;) (have a look at the "barbarians" link ;))
Unfortunately, there was no mention of "Barb Galleys" in your link's name.

Oh well, the link that you have is just a message that QUOTES DanF... I found the original source of the material. ;)

If nothing else, all of my research has made me rather paranoid of Barb Galleys and making me far more in favour of a Metal Casting and/or Machinery Oracle grab.

While early Pacifism from Oracling Philosophy would be awesome, it wouldn't be very useful to use if all of our Seafood were pillaged, as then we'd have to fire the Specialists.


^^ It's 234bpt * 3% * (CivsWhoKnowSailing / TotalCivs), if I understand correctly. And that's more in line with what Silu was saying about barb Feudalism in SG11, IIRC.

I saw some info in the Murky Waters' SGOTM 5 thread on this subject from klarius... let's see if I can find it. Okay, I have dug up the relevant message (that may have seemed instantanous to you but it wasn't for me ;))... however, in that game, the human player was teamed with the Barbs. I slightly edited what he wrote (I hope that it's not bad manners to do so as long as you state the fact that you are doing so; as well as when you aren't doing so maliciously, which I am not doing) in order for it to match up with our current game.

Incidentally, that game had 7 AI opponents and the human player did not count, since the human player was "essentially" on the Barb Team. In SGOTM 13, we have only 6 AI opponents but the human player "counts" as a player, so klarius' integer math calculations can still be used (there are still 7 "players" in the game).

Ok, try to klarify barb research:

The barb team gains

floor((c * floor ( ( 3*nw ) / na))/ 100)

c = cost of tech
nw = number of teams with tech
na = number teams alive

beakers per turn on every tech.

That means when na = 7 (counting us)
1% if 3 teams have the tech
2% if 5 teams have the tech
3% if 7 teams have the tech

all percentages are rounded down. So e.g. 1 beaker/turn for fishing in the beginning (3 civs know it = 1%; cost around 120)

It hasn't anything to do with what the barbs research.


killing one AI would be only 2 teams with the tech necessary [for the Barbs] to get beakers.

When the barbs start to research, their measly beakers will also get added there.

Somewhere else in the thread, he mentioned that Barbs only functionally get 1 Flask per turn on the tech that they have chosen to research, since their Maintenance Costs have them constantly running a 0% Science Slider--they also don't even get a Palace with its free 8 Commerce. I am assuming that LowtherCastle was adding in this 1 Flask per turn by going under the assumption that the Barbs, in the worst case, had chosen to research Fishing and Sailing.

Now, what I don't know is what the Barbs will have for "c = cost fo tech." The value might be different from ours. If, for example, Fishing costs less than 100 Flasks for the Barbs, then they'd need to hit the 2% breakpoint (5 players knowing the tech) before they'd get any free Flasks for it. If Fishing costs more than 100 Flasks for them, then they'd instead only need to hit the 1% breakpoint (3 players knowing the tech), such that if Fishing's cost was greater than 100 Flasks but less than 200 Flasks, they would get 1 Flask for free per turn. In addition, they could maximally get an additional Flask per turn by having manually selected Fishing as the tech that they are researching.

So, if LC redoes his calculations for Barb research timing, we'll have a decent idea of when they'll learn Sailing at the earliest (i.e. assuming that the Barbs manually chose to research Fishing and then Sailing), after which LC's calculations about 8 Galleys quickly spawning will apply.

That's my interpretation, anyway.
 
The Vision
On game:
TBH, I'm having a bit of trouble keeping up with the discussion right now and contributing. I think that we could use some sort of clarification and summary of all of our early goals. There is a difference between "earliest Astro = best" and "relatively early Astro would be a strong move on this map". If we set earliest Astro as a primary goal, stuff like early Caste/Pac and grabbing most beakers with Oracle obviously seems attractive. If we wanna expand and grow aggressively at the same time, it doesn't appeal nearly as much - we need Slavery, Colossus and Alpha/Currency more than anything, IMHO.
I think that we're still trying to decide upon those goals by bringing information to light, by demonstrating what's possible with test runs (particularly what we can get from the Oracle), and are coming up with possible Lightbulbing strategies towards getting Astronomy.

My feeling is that the general consensus is that we want to get Astronomy before the game is over, but not necessarily before we start our first war. There isn't any sort of consensus on WHEN we will get Astronomy, but I think that most of us are in agreement that Galleons are better than Macemen, in that we'd rather fight with pre-Macemen land units out of Galleons than to fight with Macemen using Galleys. Please correct me if you disagree.


I do not think that there is any consensus on what to get from the Oracle. However, my current take is the following:
1. I like mdy's aggressive Great Person approach. In particular, I support the idea of taking Meditation instead of Polytheism with the plan to grab Philosophy.

2. I would like to take an "easy to get" tech with the Oracle, as I would rather get "some" tech than no tech. Worse than just missing a free tech would be if an AI were to Oracle a free tech like Monarchy, trade it around, and then we might see an early Feudalism date. Yuck.

3. Despite the thinking that Barb Galleys might not appear yet, as their research isn't multiples of 3%, I believe that getting early Triremes is important. So, I'm in the "Oracle Metal Casting" camp. I don't see a need for early Machinery and in fact, not researching it allows us to run more Specialists (an Engineer in one City) during Slavery.

4. Since I am in favour of Oracling Metal Casting, that means that I am in favour of using a Great Scientist to Lightbulb Philosophy. We can't Lightbulb Metal Casting with an early Great Scientist, so since I want both of these techs early on, using the Oracle on Metal Casting seems to be the way to go.

5. I, personally, think that it is worth grabbing Philosophy with our first Great Scientist, as opposed to, say, building an Academy with it. We probably won't have a better Religious Civic that we'd like to run for a while. GPP for your first few Great People are generally the most valuable part of early Specialists, regardless of whether you have The Pyramids for Representation. Our current situation is that we will build several Cities that can only work a few "good" squares, meaning that several Cities can benefit from hiring Specialists. An Academy in the capital can wait until we get our second Great Scientist, since I believe that adding 50% Flasks to a City that isn't working a lot of Commerce squares, while useful, and still something that we will want to get, won't be as useful as adding 100% GPP empire-wide. Besides, running Pacifism means that our second Great Person comes equally as quickly as our first one did, so it's a good investment in general, and particularly on this map.

6. I like the idea of getting 5 Great People, with 1 for Philosophy, 1 for an Academy, 2 for Astronomy, and then 1 for one of Machinery (Great Engineer), Civil Service (Great Merchant), or Optics (Great Scientist).

7. Early Pacifism may mean that we can potentially ignore Caste System (or at least delay it for quite some time while we abuse Slavery) and focus on running 2 Scientists in 2 (or more) Cities for most of our Great People needs.

8. Having the flexibility to get a Great Engineer (by not Oracling Machinery) or a Great Merchant (by being willing to self-tech Optics if we get a Great Merchant) allows us to run more than 2 Specialists under Slavery. We'll have to "play the numbers game," in that we'll ideally keep getting Great Scientists, so that we can keep running these other Specialist types--if we were to get a Great Merchant early, for example, we'd have to stop hiring Merchant Specialists for future Great People, since we would not want more than 1 Great Merchant.

9. I'd like to be willing to later on, once our empire is a bit more established after some REXing, switch into Caste System for a limited period of time (30 turns was mentioned as good target number of turns to use, but this amount of time could feasibly be shorter if we have been running Pacifism for a long time prior to this time period).

10. Once we have our Great Person needs met, then I think we can switch back into Slavery and whip ourselves an army of Galleys and Axemen, which we can sail to a border City as close to an AI as possible. We can then finish off research on Civil Service (either using a Great Merchant to research most of it or else self-teching it with our Academy-powered capital). Then, research can be shut down and we can start paying to upgrade our Galleys into Galleons and our Axemen into Macemen. Feasibly, we could have started attacking before upgrading, in order to get the momentum going as well as to start getting City-pillaging Gold to use in upgrading our Galleys to Galleons while waiting on Civil Service before we'll be able to upgrade our Axemen/Swordsmen.

11. I am NOT picky about the Oracle's location. In fact, I think that we only really need 2 decent Great Person Farms and possibly 1 auxilliary one. I DO NOT think that the capital really needs to be one of these Great People Farms. In fact, I am of the opinion that the capital would make a POOR choice for a Great Person Farm, since it's one of our Cities with the most "good squares." Also, unlike the Gold City, these squares aren't "almost all-Food based." For me, Gold City, Pig + Magical Fish, and possibly 2-Clams would be our Great People Farms. As such, I am strongly in favour of building the Oracle in our capital, since it is our best production location (including whip overflow). Doing so greatly reduces one of the bottlenecks on grabbing the Oracle (production), leaving the only remaining bottleneck as research (up to Priesthood and probably also Masonry).


So, in summary, here is my vision:
- Oracle Metal Casting ASAP

- Build the Oracle in the capital

- Keep the capital as our REX-based Settler-pump

- Use our first Great Person to Lightbulb Philosophy, then run Pacifism

- Stay in Slavery for as long as possible, while using Pacifism to make up for the fact that we can only run 2 Scientist Specialists at a time

- If we get enough population points, we can consider whipping a Forge in one Great Person Farm and a Market in another one, so that we can increase our Great People Point production with the potential of being able to use a maximum of 1 Great Engineer and 1 Great Merchant

- Ideally, we'll have 2 Religions, such that the capital will have a DIFFERENT Religion from our 2 to 3 Great People Farms. In this way, the Oracle's Great Prophet points won't be doubled and we can even consider building another Wonder in the capital, such as The Colossus, without worrying about accidentally generating an unwanted Great Person

- Early Metal Casting will allow us to build a few Triremes; Triremes are not invulnerable, but I think that teams which don't do so are going to be in for a world of pain, at least until they can manage to REX and spawn-bust sufficiently

- Use our Great People to Lightbulb most of the way to Astronomy, such that we'll:
a) Try to trade for Iron Working, Math, and Calendar

b) Will manually research Compass and manually research at least one of (possibly both of, if we get a Great Merchant) Optics and Machinery

c) Will Lightbulb Astronomy and possibly Lightbulb one of Optics or Machinery (if we do not get a Great Merchant). If we do get a Great Merchant, it will be used to Lightbulb most of Civil Service, which, on paper, slightly delays our Astronomy date, but in practice may speed it up by allowing us to stay in Slavery longer while generating some additional GPP from Merchant Specialists

- Note that by Oracling Metal Casting, we're free to chase after techs like Code of Laws, Alphabet, Currency, etc, as soon as we're done with Priesthood, Masonry, and Writing


That's how I currently feel. I'm certain that there will be points that many people will disagree with, but it's at least a starting point for you to work from by agreeing/disagreeing with certain parts of the plan.
 
Okay. The h e l l with theory. :) I went back to my tried and true methods from my pre-klarius days of testing. First I opened a game and started hitting enter. The barb galleys spawned on T150. :eek: By then, there were so many owned coastal tiles that there would be a max of 8 galleys, per the theory, spawning 3-2-1-1-1. That's exactly what happened. BY the way, I checked which AIs had Sailing every so often and for a long, long time, only Vicky, Izzy, and Joao had it.

Using bbp's formula, if all seven of us start with Sailing and the barbs already have Fishing, they should have Sailing about T30. I did that and by T40, they had it. THen I added three cities and lo and behold on T41, three barb galleys promptly appeared. Good. So there's nothing else that we're missing.

THen I started opening up my test saves. The barbs got Fishing on T65. That involves VIcky, Izzy , and Joao starting with fishing. That's probably about right for our situation. No saves show the barbs having Sailing before 1000BC. So I guess we can safely assume barb galleys will spawn around 700BC-500BC at the very soonest.

I don't think we need to worry about it for our slingshot and early REX.
 
@mdy: can u tell me your micro for the Oracle (and which turn you settled marble city)? I could improve my date a lot as I had COL for some time but couldn't get the oracle done earlier.

Capital builds: settler for gold-galley-lighthouse(till size 6)-Build settler 3 for 1 T then whip for 3 pop-finish lighthouse-WB, send to net marbles clams-library (whip for 3 pop)

Marble founded on T82. works unimproved marble until the clams are netted then switches to clams. Builds: Lighthouse (till 1T away from completion).

Worker: Dropped of on marble after building/roading gold and build road on marble. Sleeps till masonry then builds quarry and chops the forest on the island 2N 1E of marble. Put hammers into granary for 1T to delay Oracle.

I can now get machinery in 1050BC, but I still think there is potental to shave a turn or two of it.
 

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Well that's a relief for the REX but we're still up against the reality that an AI may beat us to the Oracle.

It becomes more of a debateable point, with us deciding how much risk we are willing to incur in order to delay the Oracle for either a better tech or to build it in a lower-production City.

However, I am not currently convinced that there is really a better tech to Lightbulb.
- Machinery? Delays our other research while we self-tech Metal Casting. Provides no material benefit as an early tech, unless you plan to research Archery and choke Vicky and possibly other AIs with Archery-based units (no one seemed to like this idea).

- Philosophy? The greatest amount of Flasks and it does help to "convince" us to research Code of Laws. However, it duplicates the Great Scientist's Lightbulbing role, and since we can get an early Great Scientist relatively easily, I'm not sure that it beats Metal Casting.

- Code of Laws? Too cheap and we won't be building Courthouses THAT early. Even self-teching it soon might not have us building Courthouses for a while.

- Currency? Vicky only has 1 City. Maybe we'll meet other AIs, but I don't believe, even with the extra early Trade Routes, that manual-based research is our primary bottleneck. Instead, it appears to be a balance between REXing and waiting on Great People to be generated.

- Alphabet? Too cheap, given our other currently-open options.

- Civil Service? Out of the question. A Bureaucratic capital is not of much use to us here. Lightbulbing gets royally messed up. I don't see this game as a "beeline Liberalism" type of game.



As for which City to build the Oracle in, from where are we going to pump Settlers if we turn the capital into a Great Person Farm? I don't see a great location to do so. Do you honestly want to give up REXing just to keep the capital as a Great Person Farm? Can't we be better off by REXing a lot, including to another couple of Great Person Farm locations?
 
Here is a 1025 bc philo test save incorporating mdy's micro for marble city. I went with furs this time instead of double fish/pig (so teched hunting too). Still working on this. I like fur option to have another hapiness to work with rather soon. I am ahead regarding rex compared to my last save (settler for city 5 nearly completed).

Let's see mdy's machinery new save :)
 

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