SGOTM 14 - One Short Straw

[Dhoomstriker]

If the goal is to trade and then see what we're up against for tech trading opportunities next turn, then my main advice would just be to take it slowly and make sure that you don't miss anything important (such as a Warrior move at our Maginot Line or running our Scout from a Barb unit, etc) in the haste to see what other techs we'll get in trade.

Also, I would be very cautious in figuring out what AIs will trade in techs from here on in. For example, if an AI puts Meditation on the trading table, it will only be 1 misclick away from drastically altering our Lightbulbing path, since we're planning on taking Code of Laws.

Thus, you might not want to ask any questions of an AI on the trading screen that would allow an AI to consider putting Meditation on the trading table. Alternatively, if you do ask such a question, consider pressing the Escape key (untested, but I think that it works--please test it in a test game first) to escape out of the trading screen, just to avoid your mouse misclicking on the "accept the deal" link. Accidentally getting Meditation in trade is probably the only thing that will mess us up severely from here on in.

One thing that I think IS worth checking is: will the team that will trade us these 2 techs also trade the techs to us independently? If yes, realise that there IS a difference between which AI you trade with on a team. So, if both techs can be traded independently, then we could make 1 trade with 1 AI team member and the other trade with the other AI team member. However, please make sure that it is actually possible to individually trade with either AI before attempting individual trades, just in case it is the "extra value" of one tech that allows us to get the more expensive of the AIs' two techs.


If we can only get the techs in trade by combining them, then I'd say pick the AI that likes us one Attitude level less, if such a situation exists. I.e. If AI A is Annoyed with us an AI B is Cautious toward us, then trade with AI A for the two-for-two tech trade.


Remember (make note of somewhere) which AI you ended up trading with, so that the next time that we trade with that team, we can trade with the other AI. Alternatively, we could keep trading with the same AI in hopes of eventually getting a bonus to Fair and Forthright trading with said single team member. That said, there is a "memory" of how long ago you traded with a particular AI player that affects some decisions, so "balancing out" the trades could be a reasonable option if we don't care about their Attitude levels all that much.


Also, I would strongly consider gifting away Resources if you haven't done so already, since doing so:
Works toward:
a) a Shared Resources with us bonus
AND
b) a Fair and Forthright Trading bonus
AND
c) increasing the amount of Gold that we can successfully Request from an AI team that is Pleased toward us

 

[ZPV]

If the goal is to trade and then see what we're up against for tech trading opportunities next turn, then my main advice would just be to take it slowly and make sure that you don't miss anything important (such as a Warrior move at our Maginot Line or running our Scout from a Barb unit, etc) in the haste to see what other techs we'll get in trade.


One thing that I think IS worth checking is: will the team that will trade us these 2 techs also trade the techs to us independently? If yes, realise that there IS a difference between which AI you trade with on a team. So, if both techs can be traded independently, then we could make 1 trade with 1 AI team member and the other trade with the other AI team member. However, please make sure that it is actually possible to individually trade with either AI before attempting individual trades, just in case it is the "extra value" of one tech that allows us to get the more expensive of the AIs' two techs.


If we can only get the techs in trade by combining them, then I'd say pick the AI that likes us one Attitude level less, if such a situation exists. I.e. If AI A is Annoyed with us an AI B is Cautious toward us, then trade with AI A for the two-for-two tech trade.

Well, bbp doesn't even have to end turn - as soon as the trade goes through we can see the tech situation - I'd expect us to be able to pick up Iron Working right away, at least.

We can't do the trades seperately - Maths isn't worth enough.

It looks like Mansa Musa, Shaka, Gandhi, Montezuma and Genghis Khan are all peaceniks - I see a bunch of -1 pleaseds out there.

 

[LowtherCastle]

I'm in favor of #2 also.

 

[babybluepants]

Oops! I accidentally took Medi.

Spoiler :

Uploaded, in case you guys wanna try the trade screens for any reason.

I guess we trade with Liz/GK next. That seems pretty straightforward.

HBR could be available by the time we need it. That would be pretty awesome. Wouldn't expect Construction to be.

 

[babybluepants]

What's our espionage strategy, btw? Would we wanna get up on Demo for Asoka/Ragnar?

 

[shyuhe]

EP on Asoka/Ragnar sounds good. Math -- IW seems pretty straightforward here.

 

[babybluepants]

I got slightly confused by this comment, since I'm not sure why growing for 1 turn would prevent us from starting work on The Great Library.

No, it wouldn't. It's just that we need pop 7 and no Sci to work all the available hammers. I was initially aiming for that at Lit date.

Nice job in meeting the other AIs... I have no way of looking at saved games but it does sound like it is 4 teams of 2 AIs each.

You mentioned looking for the Wizard... how do the middle of the map look? Is there a wall of Peaks around there anywhere or have we not quite explored that far yet?

The scout went more or less straight WSW through the hub. The hub looks like it typically does. Right now it's at a spoke to a SSW AI (Mansa or Shaka). The WB's just gone around Mongolia and met Gandhi's WB there.

 

[LowtherCastle]

I agree on Math for IW.

What's the purpose of the epps? Over the long run, it looks like Gandhi will be the fastest researcher, thus the most powerful, and we're going to least likely waant to attack them, if we go for domination. Maybe we want to focus our epps on them so that eventually we'll get to see what they're researching.

What was the thinking for Asoka? How will seeing their demo graph help us?

 

[LowtherCastle]

I think our scout should try to zigzag through the center of the hub to maximize our chances of seeing the borders of a barb city, constantly moving westward. With safety as the first prioirty of course.

 

[ZPV]

Yes, IW for Maths.

You never know, we might end up having iron under a mine somewhere and the granary in Washington comes in too early.

I see little use for espionage in this game, unless we end up building several courthouses. We just won't accumulate enough to see anything more than demo-vision. All of the teams seem to be spending commerce on espionage.

 

[babybluepants]

Yeah, I'm not expecting more than Demo visibility or maybe research visibility in this game. We might as well check on our target's power prior to attacking under those conditions.

Long term, Gandhi/Monte is probably the best target, yes.

I'm ok either way, just asking...

 

[Mitchum]

I agree with the Math <-> IW trade. It would be nice to see where Iron is as ZPV suggested since it might change our micro in the coming turns.

If all agree, which has been everyone but Dhoomstriker and mdy so far, when can you make the trade, bbp?

 

[Dhoomstriker]

Oops! I accidentally took Medi.

Way to make the heart jump...


Does every AI team know every other AI team? I ask because this fact would influence willingness to trade calculations.

What's our espionage strategy, btw?

Spend all EPs on a single team. If a team is spending 0 EPs on us, then they are a good team NOT to spend EPs on. I wouldn't expect to get much value out of EPs in this game, but I'd rather wait to switch EP targets from our initial one until we have at least 5+ Courthouses, so that when we do switch, we can "heavily pour on the EPs" against a team that hasn't been spending much or any EPs on us up until that time.

As soon as we switch to a second team, then we'll have 2 AI teams spending relatively more heavily on us.

EDIT: In other words, if we already have Weight = 1 on one team, I would not change that situation until after we're making more than 4 EPs per turn. That way, in the future, if we REALLY need to know, we can always switch to the team that we care about, run a 100% Espionage Slider, and find out the info as cheaply as possible, due to said AI team having spent the least amount of possible EPs on us up until that date.

Math -- IW seems pretty straightforward here.

Obviously, if we can get Monotheism, too, take it as well, right? It may never see a use, but if we do get a Religion spreading to us/captured from an AI, it won't hurt to have, right? Or does getting Monotheism potentially mess up our Lightbulbing preferences by accidentally opening up a possible Theology Lightbulb?

The question for me is... if Math gives us Iron Working but not Monotheism while Aesthetics gives us both, should we trade Aesthetics for both?

 

[Dhoomstriker]

Has anyone looked into Favourite Civics?

That point might come up by way of Monotheism if Organized Religion is one or more AIs' Favourite Civic.


Actually, upon further reflection, we probably DO NOT want to take Monotheism in trade. We can always get it later as part of a different tech trade, since we will have such a high "surplus value" for tech trading in this game. As soon as we learn Monotheism, it will get traded around even quicker amongst the AIs that do not know it, which would reduce the cost of an AI team researching Monarchy and thereby increase the chance that an AI team will research Monarchy -> Feudalism.

So, yeah, go with what everyone voted for (Math for Iron Working) and don't take Monotheism as part of the trade, even if it is offered. If one AI from the AI team dislikes us more, make the trade with said AI.

 

[ZPV]

Some personal(ity ) thoughts:

Elizabeth has -1 base different religion attitude modifier, and was willing to trade Iron at Cautious.
That means she must be one of: Churchill, Ramesses, Gandhi, Suleiman.

Gandhi/Montezuma traded CoL to us with only 1/3 of the other teams knowing it. I *think* that means that their average iTechKnownThreshold must be below 20 (30*4 for Courthouse, Sacrificial Altar, Rathaus, Chichen Itza + 50 for unbuilt Chichen Itza = 170%; 20*1.7=34 > 100/3)
That puts their total iTechKnownThreshold at below 40. Only Mansa Musa has that below 10, and the others with 20 or less are: Asoka, Catherine, Gandhi, Gilgamesh, Wang Kon (all 20), Willem (15), Peter and Pericles (both 10).
There are lots with the value 30, but that's only relevant if one of the two leaders is Mansa Musa - otherwise, both are drawn from this shortlist.
ingameGandhi has a base religion negmod of 0, so can't be Mansa Musa. Thus, Montezuma must be on that list. The only ones with a base religion negmod of -2 are MM and Catherine, so he must have one of those personalities.

 

[LowtherCastle]

ZPV, assuming that Monty's iTechKnownThreshold is 17.5 max, how many more teams need Construction before they'll trade it to us?

 

[ZPV]

ZPV, assuming that Monty's iTechKnownThreshold is 17.5 max, how many more teams need Construction before they'll trade it to us?

They need to know it, and one other team needs to know it. The "one other team" bit is satisfied at the moment (It's MansaMusa/Shaka that know construction).

i.e. if Monty/Gandhi learn construction, and we have some trade bait, they will trade it to us.

--

On further reflection, Monty is very unlikely to be Catherine because she has warmonger respect of 2, peaceweight of 2, and he hates Asoka aka Tokugawa.
So Monty is really Mansa Musa.

 

[LowtherCastle]

Okay, and what about MC and HBR? Same?

 

[LowtherCastle]

What can we conclude about Liz/GK's techthreshold since they'll trade mono with 1 other team knowing it?

 

[babybluepants]

Ok, I made the trade. Washington is settled on top of iron. Another one is 1N of the ivory tile.