SGOTM 14 - One Short Straw

[Dhoomstriker]

If we promote a WE to shock, we get 65% and 3xp against the spear. That's not bad.

If we do so, does the Spearman still come up as the defender or does the Archer come us as the defender?

I guess it doesn't really matter since Combat I should still give us 3 XP against an Archer.

If that's the case (that the Spearman comes up), we'd likely actually have 2 shots at an 8 XP unit instead of just one shot--first against the Spearman and then, either against the full-health Spearman that pwned our War Elephant or more likely against the City Defence I Archer.


We'd have to be willing to totally sacrifice 2 units with no gains and with Asoka getting free experience as the possible tradeoff, with the possible payout being a slightly faster Heroic Epic.

Since getting the 8 XP unit was the entire point of attacking, I don't mind whether we attack now or wait for reinforcements, but if it weren't for that gambit, I'd definitely say wait for reinforcements. Here, I will probably be fine with just leaving it up to LC to decide how badly he wants to try to unlock the Heroic Epic IMMEDIATELY versus trying to do so safely in a couple of turns when backup units will exist to take care of Asoka's surviving troops.

 

[babybluepants]

I think the odds are reasonably decent. Typically, I'd like to have 5-6 units here, but we're looking at something like:
1) 65% win (Shock WE - Spear) / 75% win (C1 WE - CG Archer) / 86% win (WE - Archer) / axe doesn't attack
2) 65% loss (Shock WE - Spear) / 72% win (WE - CG Archer) / 86% win (WE - Archer) / 99% win (Axe - injured Spear)
3) 65% loss (Shock WE - Spear) / 72% loss (WE - CG Archer) / bust out some really nasty language.. wait for reinforcements

LC can take it. I'm happy to hand this off. It's stressful playing this solo. I just meant that if we decide to attack now, we should do that as an immediate mini-set, so we can plan around the HE build.

 

[babybluepants]

Looks like if our wb had been two turns faster we wouldn't have seen that barb culture.

Pre-Optics? Yeah, that was pretty close, I guess. Count us lucky.

 

[babybluepants]

Btw, I had to refuse two demands from Genghis. One turn it was Judaism, next turn Aesthetics.

 

[LowtherCastle]

I agree with bbp's analysis for the attack on Madurai. I can go ahead and do that, if you guys agree.

 

[Dhoomstriker]

There is also this possible option:
4) 65% loss (Shock WE - Spear) no damage done / 65% loss (Shock WE - Spear) / nasty language.. wait for reinforcements

What I am curious about is that if we damage the Spearman only slightly, is it possible that he'll come up as a defender for our second War Elephant yet only offer 2 XP? Or would that scenario not be possible?

Or what if we only slightly damage the Spearman and then promote to Combat I and find that the Spearman is still defending... do we go with the Shock promotion (which might make the Archer the defender) or do we tough it out against the Spearman? We'd probably have to take the Shock promotion in that case, right? Or would we take Flanking and/or Combat II?

Btw, I had to refuse two demands from Genghis. One turn it was Judaism, next turn Aesthetics.

Hmmmm, giving him (Monotheism do you mean?) or even Aesthetics would have given us a 10 turn Peace treaty. Maybe this fact indicates that he is starting to get cold feet about attacking us?


It does raise an interesting issue, though: might we want to consider giving-in to some Demands and taking a temporary Peace as a result? I know that earlier in the game we were all about refusing Demands, but right now, it might help to give in to such a Demand for the enforced Peace? It's a tough call since we're running out of "cheap techs" to be Demanded from us.

 

[Dhoomstriker]

Actually, on that note... let's say that we lose against the Spearman but the Archer comes up as the defender for the second fight. Will we still get our 3 XP if we take Combat I + Flanking I? How about Flanking II?

Flanking II would get rid of the First Strike AND give us a chance to keep our unit if we're losing... also, do we get +1 XP for retreating? All of these reasons may point to promoting our second War Elephant (assuming that we lose the first battle but wound the Spearman sufficiently that he is no longer the defender against an unpromoted War Elephant) up the Flanking line, as long as we will still get the 3 XP for promoting in this manner.

 

[Dhoomstriker]

In case it wasn't clear, I'm okay with you attacking, I'm just trying to offer suggestions of how we might get the most out of our promotions depending upon the outcome of the battles.

Since Spearmen don't have First Strikes, it totally makes sense to promote Combat I + Shock for the first battle... it's more that after that battle, depending upon which unit is the defender, might we need to decide how to promote our unit differently.

 

[LowtherCastle]

If we win the first battle, then I'm going to maximize our upgrades towin the other two battles.

 

[LowtherCastle]

But I probably won't use the axe if it's against a strong unit because we'll want the axe to protect our cats when they land on T+3. We will still be able to attack amphibiously onT+1 if needed. Then main reason I'd like to attack T+0 is that the spear will have +5% next turn. Plus, Madurai obvioulsy whipped the spear so their might be enough overflow to comlete an archer next turn.

 

[Dhoomstriker]

It's all a risk either way. If the Spearman doesn't die, he'll likely heal to full strength, Fortify anyway, AND promote.

I would not worry about a newly-created Archer appearing... i.e. I wouldn't use that possibility to justify trying to capture the City now.

I mean, if we win the first battle, then we're done, as we can just wait for reinforcements so that we won't risk giving any promotions to any of the defending units. A newly-created Archer would have 0 Fortification bonus so there would be no rush to attack. It would just be a free promotion for another unit of ours after we Bombard or do collateral damage or have overwhelming units that a loss on our side won't hurt us.

If we lose the first battle and can get a 3 XP chance in the second battle, then we'll be done after that second battle, due to not having enough units to make further attacking worthwhile relative to just waiting.

So, the only goal is to try and unlock our Heroic Epic. If you think that waiting a couple of turns to try would be better (such as increasing our odds of success with a single Bombardment first), then wait. If you're heck-bent on trying for the Heroic Epic now, go ahead. Just stop attacking after the first attack if we win or otherwise stop attacking after the second unit. There's no rush to capture the City and Asoka will be (according to my experience) more likely to send reinforcements BEFORE we capture the City than after we capture it.

Him sending reinforcements is a good thing, as it means catching Archers in the open or fighting undefended Spearmen that an Axeman could easily take down.

 

[LowtherCastle]

Turnset Report, Part 1

Our first WE died, knocking the spear down to 2.3/4HP. The second WE defeated the CGI archer and is now 8/2XP and can make three promotions.

Our third WE has 74.87% odds against the final archer and our axe would have ~100% odds against the spear.

In any case, we can start the HE now, but we need to decide how we want to upgrade the WE. One possibility would be to make him a medic. That would be nice to have, even starting now.

PPP
Research: Music at 0% for now.
I fully intend to get the GA. It will enable us to run 2 GAges and costs ~370g to research. 370g/8t = 48g/t. We're already working something like 35 commerce tiles and that will go up. That's not even including the hammers we get from the GA and the possiblity of revolting and the gpps.

Builds: WEs, trebs, galleons, and the HE.

Workers: Finish plantations, necessary roads. Transport a worker to the wheat when needed.

Scouting: Central wb continues toward the center. SW wb explores the barb culture, then Zulu. The explorer makes a beeline for Asoka's spoke. Lizzie's not mobilizing.

Send one galleon, if possible, to Asoka's spoke to see if the cows were pastured by a barb or Asoka and if that city is on the desert tile or between the iron and the cows. Schedule its capture so we can create an canal there asap.

Warring:
1. Promote our WE to the fourth level. Medic?
2. T+0: Finish capturing Madurai. Load all cats plus some WEs into the 3 galleons that are closest to Madurai. Load the other units onto the other two galleons and move.
3. T+1: Finish off Madurai amphibiously if neceassary, unless we have unfavorable odds.
4. T+2: Land 7 cats, axe, WE 1W of Bombay.
5. T+3: Bombard and capture Bombay, if cty defenses now 0% and not overly defended, else land remaining units and capture T+4.

Diplomacy: No extortions, no wooden nickels.

Trades:
Resource trades if sensible.
Trade for MansaTeam Compass for Monarchy + lots of gold.
We'll talk about other trades for gold before I do them. I'll keep an eye on AIs completing Music prereqs.

 

[LowtherCastle]

RSVP asap (some time today, I'm going to bed now) so we can keep playing tomorrow if possible. I'm not sure there's a lot to discuss, but let me konw what you think.

 

[LowtherCastle]

Btw, our 8/2XP WE is 2.6/8HP.

EDIT: Our WW is now 9 and it registers with both Ragnar and Asoka. We miht want to test to see if the WW goes away when Asoka is eliminated. The indication is not.

 

[LowtherCastle]

We could be making a bunch of gpt with resource trades, so I'll make that happen on T+0.

 

[Dhoomstriker]

Our first WE died, knocking the spear down to 2.3/4HP. The second WE defeated the CGI archer and is now 8/2XP and can make three promotions.

Great news!

Our third WE has 74.87% odds against the final archer and our axe would have ~100% odds against the spear.

I say that we should stop here. An Axeman will have super-awesome odds against a Spearman later on regardless.

Although it feels like it sucks to delay the capture of the City, it is already Size 1... so, it can't hurt to delay its capture but it can help if delaying draws additional units to us.


Consider what COULD happen if we attack now:
- Our War Elephant loses and then he promotes his Archer
- Our War Elephant wins and our Axeman wins but then in between turns, Asoka sends in a Chariot that dispatches our undefended Axeman and recaptures his City

I don't think that attacking now gives us good enough payoff to be worth these risks. I mean, we won't really advance any further/faster by capturing Madurai now and we also won't deprive Asoka of any population points by capturing the City now, so I'd rather sit tight and wait for reinforcements.

Unfortunately, a Spearman probably means Bombarding and attacking with Catapults before attacking with War Elephants in a future round, but we want to "build up a stack" before going after Bombay anyway, so I'd rather work on collecting units in an unstoppable stack, rather than throwing units at the AI peacemeal.

If there is one tactic that the AI excels at, it is rock-paper-scissors warfare with small stacks. It can't handle warfare with mixed troops and huge stack sizes, so let's work on building our unstoppable stack of doom.

Scouting: Central wb continues toward the center.

Are we still being chased by a Barb Galley? If so, watch out for the Barb Galley cutting a corner and killing you. If in doubt, hide in the Ocean, particularly if you feel that the Barb Galley has been lured near an AI seafood Resource.

SW wb explores the barb culture, then Zulu.

Remember to end your turns in the Ocean when near the Barb Culture, even if doing so means for slow and painful movement, unless you see that there is a 0% chance of encountering a Barb Galley.

The explorer makes a beeline for Asoka's spoke. Lizzie's not mobilizing.

Well, with all of those Demand refusals, Genghis probably IS mobilizing. Will we be prepared if he declares war with 3 fully-loaded Galleys at Ivory City?

Does knowing Optics give us sufficient advance warning of his potential approach?

Don't forget that an Explorer gets promotion-based defensive bonuses on Hills and Forests.

Send one galleon, if possible, to Asoka's spoke to see if the cows were pastured by a barb or Asoka and if that city is on the desert tile or between the iron and the cows. Schedule its capture so we can create an canal there asap.

Out of curiosity, why do we need to send both an Explorer and a Galleon?

Can we really spare the Galleon at the present time?

2. T+0: Finish capturing Madurai. Load all cats plus some WEs into the 3 galleons that are closest to Madurai. Load the other units onto the other two galleons and move.

Is it worth risking everything on a single battle between our War Elephant and an Archer?

If we wait one more turn, we'll not only have reinforcements by boat, but we'll also have a second War Elephant for backup in our battle (the 8 XP one).

Diplomacy: No extortions, no wooden nickels.

Does that mean not only not making Demands but also not giving into Demands?

If we don't really fear Genghis, then we really don't need to give into Demands.

Trade for MansaTeam Compass for Monarchy + lots of gold.

If there is still a Team that doesn't know Monarchy, I'd rather hold off on such a trade until the last AI Team learns Monarchy.

 

[Dhoomstriker]

Btw, our 8/2XP WE is 2.6/8HP.

Well, it sort of depends... do we know if Asoka has access to Ivory? If yes, the scariest thing that he could throw at us (not yet but once he learns the relevant tech) would be War Elephants.

If he can build those eventually (if he owns Ivory), then we'd probably want Combat III (since we won't yet need the anti-Mounted promo and can get a 4th promo easier with Combat III under our belt).

Otherwise, the scariest units that he can throw at us are Swordsmen and Spearmen, in which case we want Combat I + Shock.

Whether or not we take Combat II or Medic I as the next promo depends upon how soon we'll get another 5 XP War Elephant to the front lines... if we're getting another 5 XP War Elephant coming soon, I'd rather make the 5 XP War Elephant a Combat I and then promote it to Medic I if it wins a battle and/or as soon as we have units in need of healing.

In other words, I'd rather have a powerful stack defender than an 8 XP Medic, unless we have absolutely no chance of getting another 5 XP War Elephant to the front lines for quite some time.

Since our unit is wounded, we'd use up all of the promos this turn.

EDIT: Our WW is now 9 and it registers with both Ragnar and Asoka. We miht want to test to see if the WW goes away when Asoka is eliminated. The indication is not.

Hmmm, so I might be right in how War Weariness could force our hands: we might go Asoka -> eastern AI of the south -> Ragnar

 

[LowtherCastle]

All teams now know Monarchy, but MansaTeam has no gold available so I'll wait. No big hurry.

There are two reasons I want to continue attacking Madurai this turn. First, I want the axe to win unscathed. Second, I want our galleons to be able to move in there next turn, so they and unload on T+2. If we wait til next turn, the spear will be back to a strength of 7.84 against our WEs, so he'll defend rather than the archer. So we end up risking 2 WEs at 60-70% odds, instead of just one.

Maybe we should promote the WE to CIII, just in case he's needed next turn to clean up Madurai.

 

[LowtherCastle]

The Ducks have finished, presumably on T176. Gumbolt posted to their thread.

 

[Dhoomstriker]

Fair enough on your attack plan.

Another option, if it possibly makes sense, is to not attack Madurai at all any further until after attacking Bombay... other than possibly saving on some movement, we gain nothing by owning the City now as opposed to owning it later. If the movement for going around the City instead of through the City will be the same, we could also just consider picking up our troops or optionally leaving 2 of the troops in place to deal with straggler units that Asoka sends from Bombay or other Cities to reinforce Madurai.

Whatever. If you think that taking the City can work, do it.