SGOTM 16 - Fifth Element

[BLubmuz]

I do not think another city has a chance to develop into a capital in time to be relevant - it absolutely has to be ready (with several villages, etc) to build Oxford when we hit education, and then its usefulness declines into the industrial age because our other cities can all suddenly produce 50-100 bpt.

Sure, but we can have maintenance problems in the south once we take Celtia and be forced to move the Capital. Keeping the Capital in Paris can cost us a lot in terms of maintenance. And i'd like to keep open the Dom/Conquest option. Then, the poor trade routes of an inland city do the rest. I think that pig/ gems can be a better Capital than Paris, for an Academy and Oxford. Obviously, for what we know of the land until now.

How many beakers past Writing do you expect to be at t65? I gathered from your report that it would be very few. Please correct me if I'm wrong on this. (Or did you accrue rather a lot of failgold from Stonehenge?)
Let's set a target Alphabet date. From the save I posted, I expect to start tech trading on t76 (yes, firing the scientists when the GS pops).
Four cities are too many I think. Especially when we haven't even researched Fishing.
Gem-Pig-Clam is a goldsink and nothing else before Fishing, and only of blocking value before IW. With three cities (and a bit of focus on science in the Academy city ) the Academy is worth 5bpt @60% at size 4, and growing as more citizens and cottage growth happen (the 5th citizen pushes it up above the 6bpt of a settled scientists). That's not to be sniffed at when your overall research rate is low like ours will be, and will grow quickly.

You get 100% research from the Academy for quite a few turns, not 40-50% because you can save up gold beforehand, and then turn research up to 100% when the GS pops. That is a big boost. I just didn't do it in my test because I thought beakers invested in Alphabet would be more comparable.

By turn 65 i think i can have just started Alpha, but with the settler for pigs/gems almost ready and with MC and Oracle in the bag.
SH? i started it for fail gold and because i has an hole in production, but if i can build it i'll do. By turn 65 we can have it and it would be great for culture. 2 LCs are not easy to have and SH is 20 cpt in few turns, added to the 16 of the Oracle. I remember a recent game for my EQM with Kublai (HoF record on Monarch for quick Domination), where i has the domination in mind. I finished that way, but it could be easily be turned into a very good Space game.

 

[BSPollux]

I also don't care how many beakers MC is worth. It could cost 7002 instead, and be no more useful to us.

The tech would not be more usefull, but taking the tech would be!. Because no matter how useless that tech is, we have to research it somewhen. And it has a value in trading.

you should view it the other way round: If MC is the most expencive tech it should be the first pick, as long as nothing else seems more usefull, and that waste of science should be held against the other techs advantages.

You seem to mix um cause and effect, if i might say that.

 

[ZPV]

Sure, but we can have maintenance problems in the south once we take Celtia and be forced to move the Capital. Keeping the Capital in Paris can cost us a lot in terms of maintenance. And i'd like to keep open the Dom/Conquest option. Then, the poor trade routes of an inland city do the rest. I think that pig/ gems can be a better Capital than Paris, for an Academy and Oxford. Obviously, for what we know of the land until now.

We can reserve judgement for a while, but by the time we have the Oracle, we should know for sure where our capital will be. My money is on pumping up the commerce in Paris because cities that start later will not catch up in time for the critical period in the Renaissance.

I think it's unlikely we'll invade the Celts soon enough for moving the Palace to be a better solution than building the Forbidden Palace, simply because all of Brennus's units will get Guerrilla I, and he appears to be a long way away.

By turn 65 i think i can have just started Alpha, but with the settler for pigs/gems almost ready and with MC and Oracle in the bag.

I asked this specific point because in this scenario Alphabet is life.

We need to backfill techs. We need to get on with stealing IW so that the pig and gem become available. These both require Alphabet. I think the maximum delay to this that Oracle->MC could compensate for is about 5 turns (and my t75-6 save is already pushing that boundary compared with a second library instead of the Oracle).
The pigs/gems settler will otherwise just have to twiddle its thumbs - there's no point whatsoever founding the city without IW or Fishing except if there's a settler race (and with the jungle to the south, that's very unlikely). Maybe we should even think about Oracleing Alphabet.

I guess it's the prospect of shaving a few turns off Alphabet which makes me value an GS so much. (I'd be happy to settle it instead if we had another one on the way)

SH? i started it for fail gold and because i has an hole in production, but if i can build it i'll do. By turn 65 we can have it and it would be great for culture. 2 LCs are not easy to have and SH is 20 cpt in few turns, added to the 16 of the Oracle. I remember a recent game for my EQM with Kublai (HoF record on Monarch for quick Domination), where i has the domination in mind. I finished that way, but it could be easily be turned into a very good Space game.

At what point did you divert from the space path in that game? I think 1600AD could be a good target, but it's not guaranteed to be a winning date for this game. It's certainly unreachable from 1280 Education - that's a tech hole that you can never recover from.

btw: even for 20 culture, I consider SH a waste of hammers, and a source of unwanted Great Prophet points. The benefit is in 200 turns when we need to push a couple of cities to Legendary. Anything with a sooner effect (like a library) should be better.

 

[BLubmuz]

btw: even for 20 culture, I consider SH a waste of hammers, and a source of unwanted Great Prophet points. The benefit is in 200 turns when we need to push a couple of cities to Legendary. Anything with a sooner effect (like a library) should be better.

My thoughts for SH are just... thoughts, not a real proposal.

About the FP in Celtia, i disagree: we probably can take another AI, probably in another landmass. At that point we need the FP there, to avoid impossible colonial maintenance.

Oracle Alpha has an higher risk, since we must delay the Oracle past the safe date. Not mentioning that it would be less rewarding than MC.

About pig/gem you're forgetting that it can work cottages and grow slowly. All the 3 cities are close enough to the Capital to not have big maintenance costs. Also, when it's built it's a thing done and land secured.

Guerrilla units? let's see what they can do versus axes and cats. A few turns of delay for Alpha is not a problem if we can have MC so soon. Later, much later, we can even consider to trade it. In the meantime we can build our cheap forges while waiting for libraries and for spies. 2 at least, to be safe.

I foreseen that by 1000 AD we can be well past Lib if we expand quickly, by settlers or by axes.

 

[Shaandore]

In my experience early writing is better, so I am with ZPV on the tech path. The early scientist specialists and the GS is one of the most powerful boosts in the eraly game. I also agree that the capital has to be used as we settled it: bureau capital. Cottages are more important, and add those library beakers, minimal whipping, an academy, and we have research power. I think that it is nearly as powerful as oracle and later library+academy. Now taking into account that t65 oracle is possible (could we do t64 or t63 BTW? With perfect micro maybe t64 is possible... sadly I don't have time to run tests until weekend), I think that early writing+a bit later oracle gambit has better returns (in expected value) than going for oracle straight.

Delaying writing for that long just keep us in the dark age, and only gives us ~20% more chance (estimate based on experience) of getting oracle.

The freebie is another issue. With that research power, I think that researching alpha is not that bad, so oracle->MC is a very solid choice for trade bait. So I agree with Blubmuz & BSPollux here.

 

[ZPV]

About the FP in Celtia, i disagree: we probably can take another AI, probably in another landmass. At that point we need the FP there, to avoid impossible colonial maintenance.

I'm sure we will take another AI eventually. Looking at the map and how long it has taken Brennus (and his other neighbour) to find us, we have plenty of room on this continent, so we don't need to capture and keep another continent until we are pushing for Domination or Conquest. We can choose to attack the owner of Versailles if it has been built, or even liberate some cities as a colony if we have to. By then colonial maintenance is not such a big problem that we can't deal with it one way or another (whereas city maintenance earlier on makes you want to move the Palace to reduce it).

Oracle Alpha has an higher risk, since we must delay the Oracle past the safe date. Not mentioning that it would be less rewarding than MC.

About pig/gem you're forgetting that it can work cottages and grow slowly. All the 3 cities are close enough to the Capital to not have big maintenance costs. Also, when it's built it's a thing done and land secured.

What is a safe Oracle date? How much does the risk increase as the date gets later? Must we really try for a completely safe date? Wonders are at their most powerful when you build them late, because that is when their relative cost is the least.
We clearly disagree on how useful MC is. The reason I suggest Oracle->Alpha (as a semi-serious proposal) is that it is a tech we need right away, which will free us to research another tech we need right away sooner, etc. We do not need MC, but I still consider it because it is good trade bait that lets us hold Alphabet back, and has a little benefit.

Ok, I guess Pig/Gem doesn't cost quite as much as I thought, but if landblocking is not an issue so that we don't need to settle it before fishing, then we still shouldn't - growing on cottages alone is slow, so there is not much developmental difference compared to waiting, and does not quite pay for the increased maintenance. Better to spend the immediate hammers on something else with a quicker payoff, and then the Settler later when it doesn't have to sit around working a lone cottage for 11 turns.

Guerrilla units? let's see what they can do versus axes and cats.

We can beat them, but it will be more expensive - just like trying to rush a protective AI - if they have settled on hills. The land we capture had better be worth it if we go against him early.

A few turns of delay for Alpha is not a problem if we can have MC so soon. Later, much later, we can even consider to trade it. In the meantime we can build our cheap forges while waiting for libraries and for spies. 2 at least, to be safe.

Why aren't those turns a problem? Those are turns delaying our progress to Fishing, to AH, to Sailing, to IW. These are the techs that will let us develop our empire, because we already have the production to use them. MC is a low priority compared to those - forges make other infrastructure a bit cheaper, but the hammer cost of such infrastructure is not the problem right now, it's the tech to unlock them.

We will whip a spy the turn after Alphabet is available so it can start the long walk to the Celts. That is the limiting factor on when we can steal IW and get the happiness and commerce benefit of the gems.
We can whip/build another one soon as a back up, but we should not wait for it to send the first one - doing so does not increase our odds of success, and only delays our first chance at stealing IW.

 

[ZPV]

Now taking into account that t65 oracle is possible (could we do t64 or t63 BTW? With perfect micro maybe t64 is possible... sadly I don't have time to run tests until weekend)

There's plenty of wiggle room on the Oracle date. The biggest thing is just to plan the worker moves so that we have chops available at the right time, and also whip overflow, etc.

 

[Shaandore]

There's plenty of wiggle room on the Oracle date. The biggest thing is just to plan the worker moves so that we have chops available at the right time, and also whip overflow, etc.

This is very good news then. We should really focus on getting the best date with your tech order.

On the oracle freebie, here are our possibilities, with their beaker costs (at noble, but they are just multiplied with the same constant)
- Aesthetics 300
- Mathematics 250
- Alphabet 300
- Monarchy 300
- Metal Casting 450

Their usefulness is much harder to grasp, it can only be based on experience. The cost of MC shows that it can be traded for any of the others. It's immediate benefits are weaker though.

 

[unclethrill]

T65 is questionable. T63 is probably okay. T60 is almost positively safe. I have been thinking about all the comments and I can see both sides so I am really torn still on which side to fall. If we can wait a few more days, i will have some time to test and make an infirmed decision.

 

[kcd_swede]

i will have some time to test and make an infirmed decision

I always try to make informed decisions, because not doing so can leave me infirmed.

 

[BLubmuz]

This is very good news then. We should really focus on getting the best date with your tech order.

(...)

Their usefulness is much harder to grasp, it can only be based on experience. The cost of MC shows that it can be traded for any of the others. It's immediate benefits are weaker though.

The question is to have a free tech and to deny a free tech to an AI. Let's keep aside culture and GP points.

If we can have another choice other than MC i'd take it anytime. I think that 5-6 turns of delay on Alpha are worth a free tech. True, it's a key tech, mainly with this scenario objectives, but 5 turns later change very few in the overall game.

Let's put it in that way: if anyone can give me an Oracle by turn 60-61 with writing before the path to PH with 3 cities including Paris and 5 warriors (I doubt it will be possible, but maybe you can do better than me), i'll move on the writing first party.

Then, let's also wait for UT's infirmed decisions

 

[ZPV]

The question is to have a free tech and to deny a free tech to an AI. Let's keep aside culture and GP points.

If we can have another choice other than MC i'd take it anytime. I think that 5-6 turns of delay on Alpha are worth a free tech. True, it's a key tech, mainly with this scenario objectives, but 5 turns later change very few in the overall game.

Let's put it in that way: if anyone can give me an Oracle by turn 60-61 with writing before the path to PH with 3 cities including Paris and 5 warriors (I doubt it will be possible, but maybe you can do better than me), i'll move on the writing first party.

Then, let's also wait for UT's infirmed decisions

I don't think AI denial is worth anything at all on Emperor. No AI will be fast enough to harm us much. The question is how long they can keep up in tech, to help us go faster by trading their (monopoly or otherwise) techs to us.
I also think every turn is crucial for research. I wouldn't delay Alphabet a single turn without a really good reason, because it's not just Alphabet that we delay; it's everything after it too. A free tech is such a reason, but that will only compensate for a handful of turns.

How many turns? That depends on what the tech does for us. Taking any old tech is not as useful as on Immortal/Deity, especially the latter, where any expensive tech is very powerful. This tech, on Emperor, gives us trade bait and a moderately powerful building, but not much actual progress.

-

I don't have an Alphabet date from you for Priesthood-before-Writing. I need to know this to compare properly - how much does eliminating the smallish risk of whatever date in the low or mid 60s I end up on cost us?. I'll try and provide you with a more accurate Oracle date for Writing-first. (I'll also try a run through with no Oracle (without Myst-Poly-Priest) for a reference Alphabet date, and to see if that presents a viable option.)

 

[Folket]

I would prefer to be able to get oracle at turn 63.

I think we should be fine to delay alphabet a couple of turns. Sooner or later we will want MC and we will gain those turns back at that point. Building the oracle also gives us one more tech to trade away.

The alternative would be to play for not getting the oracle.

 

[BLubmuz]

The Oracle on turn 63 is not safe, or not completely. A sure safe date is 60-61, as i asked.

Now, i can surely test until Alpha is completed.
I need to know if it's right to give priority to a worker right after the settler for Orleans and to a settler once Paris has grow back to 3 after the whipping of the first.
In my test i did not has problems of research thus my priority were units.
BTW, this is what i propose here.

With those 3 cities and some warrior built (i has problems with barbs in all my tests) writing comes around turn 63. This gives me another argument: how can we have the Oracle completed by then? it's the time needed to arrive to all the techs for Oracle and Alpha. Thanks to the library+scientists hired in Paris? But Paris needs to pump workers and warriors and the settler for city 4.

Another thing: we're 2 turns away from BW and to see copper. Is it worth to complete those 2 turns and see? I can do it, in case.

 

[Folket]

Let us decide who takes next turnset and let him/her play two turns perhaps already tonight.

For those two turns I suggest moving warriors two step southwest and continue to build warrior.

 

[BLubmuz]

Let us decide who takes next turnset and let him/her play two turns perhaps already tonight.

For those two turns I suggest moving warriors two step southwest and continue to build warrior.

What about you?

I agree to move the warrior SW.

You do not have a great task for all the TS (2+13 turns): just keep Paris growing with max food. We need to decide what to do with the worker, but i think the road 1SW of Paris (forest) is almost sold.

 

[ZPV]

The Oracle on turn 63 is not safe, or not completely. A sure safe date is 60-61, as i asked.

Now, i can surely test until Alpha is completed.
I need to know if it's right to give priority to a worker right after the settler for Orleans and to a settler once Paris has grow back to 3 after the whipping of the first.
In my test i did not has problems of research thus my priority were units.
BTW, this is what i propose here.

Use your best judgement on your test. I think building the road hurts you and forces you into whipping the settler, and causing that headache.

With those 3 cities and some warrior built (i has problems with barbs in all my tests) writing comes around turn 63. This gives me another argument: how can we have the Oracle completed by then? it's the time needed to arrive to all the techs for Oracle and Alpha. Thanks to the library+scientists hired in Paris? But Paris needs to pump workers and warriors and the settler for city 4.

Another thing: we're 2 turns away from BW and to see copper. Is it worth to complete those 2 turns and see? I can do it, in case.

In my initial tests I found Paris had too much production, and could build warriors+settlers+workers too fast for science to keep up. City 4 comes too soon for us to improve it. Even city 3 waits 20+ turns before it has the techs to improve either of its food resources. That's why I put the Library in there instead and tried to ramp up research.

Uncovering Copper makes sense if we can agree on a worker action.

We need to decide what to do with the worker, but i think the road 1SW of Paris (forest) is almost sold.

I tested building the road, and building a mine first. The mine just seems to work better for me - there are a few extra hammers available and the worker can get a chop done.
The other option is chopNW-mine-farm, saving a worker turn compared to the above, but clearing a less useful tile of its forest, but I haven't run that test yet to see when the settler is ready.

 

[Mastiff_of_Ar]

I just ran a test game and the Oracle was taken on turn #60.

 

[Folket]

My two turn PPP.
Finish Bronze working. then select pottery.
Mine plains hill.
Go with warrior SW.

 

[Folket]

Perhaps change to slavery as soon as we get Bronze working?