SGOTM 16 - Plastic Ducks

Bebekija

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Thanks for the summary of objectives, I actually wanted to ask about it myself.

Anyways, just wanted to stop by and say hi, I've finally managed to catch up with the thread these past few days, and you're doing very good, I am quite amazed by the evolutions from save to save.

Keep up the good work everyone!
 

kossin

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You're welcome, I'll keep it updated as progress is made.

~~~

From last night:

It's sad, but this city had to go. 9 turns to come out of revolt would not let us grab all the tiles we required. I still have 0 land losses in the SB war !
Spoiler :


This is where I stopped... SB has just gotten a GP.
Spoiler :


I don't know if AIs ever use GSpies for EP missions, but I think I don't want to find out so the city will be razed this turn.
EDIT: according to worldbuilder, AI doesn't lose a GSPy even if we raze the city... we'd have to get rid of SB altogether.


Next turn we get to see exact population counts so that adequate starving can be planned if required. With 60~70 population that will be liberated, we might not need it.
 

kossin

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I guess I'll assign a few more spy specialists just in case it ends up being any help. The lower EP in the live game means we'll have slightly lower chances of having the culture missions succeed, so I'd like to account for that somewhat with something other than more spies :D
 

kossin

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40 actually so far. We'll need ~16 successful missions in Paris and ~7 successful in Orleans (assuming no GA bombs).
Current plan is to go for somewhat more than required (about double) because I don't trust my bad streaks ;)

After removing another SB city, we're up to 60.77% land, I expect we'll be at 62.08% beginning of next turn, not currently settling the north SB city because we might hit 730 that way... also delaying the Amiens colony for this turn.
Spoiler :


I'll move some troops down to start working on his last city. The idea is to work it down to only 1 unit for T235 so that a boat attack will remove him from the game.
 

kossin

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Marseilles pops a GA, excellent, T235 gift of Paris+Orleans will work.
Spoiler :


This means Thebes can switch away from Artists this turn as we don't really need 1 more. Pray for GM.
 

shakabrade

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Fantastic job and commitment.:D

Full support for spy specialists since our beakers are better than anticipated. Don't forget Humbaba units. Just reminding. I understand

Good luck!
 

kossin

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The votes:
Spoiler :


Of that, we're currently going to liberate 55 population, plus a possible 9 to Hammy.

We still have to lose population. I'll restrict growth in some smaller cities as well.

Ideally, I'll starve the low-infra cities that don't contribute much.
 

kossin

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Fantastic job and commitment.:D

Full support for spy specialists since our beakers are better than anticipated. Don't forget Humbaba units. Just reminding. I understand

Good luck!

Already 3 Marines done, T228. As I said, all will be in place to take out Humbaba T232, which leaves us a bit of room if the first try were to fail with 6 Marines and 7 Guided Missiles.
 

kossin

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After removing another SB city, we're up to 60.77% land, I expect we'll be at 62.08% beginning of next turn

Perfectly called!
Spoiler :


Also, SB built Scotland Yard in his remaining city.

EDIT: I estimate we'll have to starve about 20 population points. SB cities as well as small cities are the targets.
EDIT2: T229 Saladin has gone into Emancipation, nothing I could do about it, the option to change civics was not allowed previous turn... we've now got a bit of unhappy citizens across the globe, I'll consider settling the Amiens colony this turn. (QSH was bribed on T227 so it'll be a while before he can go to Emancipation).
EDIT3: From Thebes, we can either use him for GA bomb or Corporation. The next one from Babylon is 54% a GM, 31% GP, 15% GA and last one from Orleans is 97% GA 3% GM.
Spoiler :


I'm sending him around Orleans in case we want to found Civilized Jewelers.
 

kossin

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Before continuing, I'll need to re-count tiles. Attacking Saladin would be messy and we'd need quite a few more hammers spent into the effort (he just recently got Rifling).

If all we need is to acquire enough of SB tiles, I'll proceed a bit more, carefully evaluating the population each turn.

EDIT:
We currently have 705/731 tiles, Hammy contributes 10/2 = 5 but is about to lose 2 tiles to Saladin so that's +4.
Remove tiles for Amiens colony: -4
Add tiles for Amiens colony: 7/2 -> let's use +3.
Add tiles for Humbaba: +3
Remove tiles for Rouen-Avignon-Aryan Colony: -35
Add tiles for same colony: 35/2 -> let's use +17
---
705+4-4+3+3-35+17 = 687

Add tiles for 100 culture in Cahokia: +13
Add tiles for 500 culture in Chaco Canyon: +1
Add tiles for 10 culture in northern city: +21
---
687+13+1+21 = 722

Add tiles for Nubian 500 culture once SB is gone: +12
Add tiles for 2 new cities (no culture) that can be founded in place of SB's last city: +14
---
736

Add potential culture flips: +9
---
745

Even by being conservative, we'll have more than enough land. I'll refrain from settling cities until the last moment or if an AI shows up.
 

kossin

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I've run a few numbers.
Assuming no further growth from all AIs and cities to be liberated, we'd need to starve 32 population by T233.

Options:
-Biology to Saladin (QSH already has it)
-lift the privateer embargo by Saladin
-gift some :) and :health: resources to Saladin and QSH

~~~

I'll play a bit more tomorrow evening. If all goes well, I might finish then ;)
 

kossin

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Another option is Nationalism for drafting.

As I recall, Bibracte was short a bit of OF after U.N. to complete CR in 2 turns. I''ll have a quick look and see if it makes sense to try and build it somewhere.

EDIT: the cheapest location to build CR is Thebes, it would be the equivalent cost of 815 gold (compared to 962g in Bibracte).
We can also consider building Hollywood, another 1,000H.
It's a 3t build in Bibracte so we'd lose 962g, but scientists are worth 11.1 beakers/turn, so ~100 more citizen turns would pay it off.

Active for:
t232
t233
t234

33 more happy citizens per turn? This turn, we'd get 7 more due to Hollywood (accounting for colony which can be liberated). Unless QSH gets into Emancipation as well, I don't expect it to pay off, especially since I'll just starve these angry citizens anyway...

~~~

I'll skip Hollywood but re-evaluate CR next turn. Given AI growth, we probably don't need to starve too much.
 

Duckweed

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Or we can just switch to slavery (without CR) on T233 to whip, Is losing the CS bonus on T234 too big?

Could you upload the T233 save before hitting enter and T235 final result to this thread for others to double check?

Will creating vassals change the domination and UN cap?
 

kossin

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Or we can just switch to slavery (without CR) on T233 to whip, Is losing the CS bonus on T234 too big?

:nono: Not only would we lose the ability to run as many scientists and merchants as we'd like, we'd lose 1H on every singly Workshop.

Nationalism, while losing the 100% culture bonus (only a few hundreds in Paris and Orleans, I'm really not worried about this) and maybe ~200 research through towns has 0 upkeep, multiplied by inflation (about 50% atm) it's actually not too far in terms of final beaker output. Plus, barracks give 2:) and almost all of our unhappy towns happen to have barracks... draft Infantry is 2 pop per city so we can shed probably around 60 population if need be.

It's also used in HoF games towards the end, so there's also that. Extra EPP should add ~10% to our current rate.


Could you upload the T233 save before hitting enter and T235 final result to this thread for others to double check?

I can't upload to thread per SGOTM rules. Either to the server or I provide screenshots. I'll upload every single turn after submitting the final save if you guys want them.

Will creating vassals change the domination and UN cap?

UN cap is always 62% (from the code).
Domination land I don't recall, I remember OSS explored it in a thread (possibly SGOTM13, 14 or 15) where they went Domination.

Comments.

EDIT: land % will remain 64% whatsoever happens.
 

shakabrade

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draft Infantry is 2 pop per city so we can shed probably around 60 population if need be.

How? We can draft only 3 cities per turn. That is 10T of Nationalism for 60 pop. And we'll win sooner than that.
 

kossin

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:lol:
You're right, I completely forgot, I'm too rusty in civ knowledge it seems!

I don't think I can finish tonight, I only have ~2 hours. Anyway, I'll do what I can.

~~~

EDIT: I'll re-check starving every turn and start starving a bit more than needed. There are currently 8 cities on "avoid growth" so we can easily grow back as required on T234.
 

shakabrade

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Bah, you have 10 days. No need to hurry.:D

We can afford a turn of slavery, right? We have more beakers than in the test.
 

kossin

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There won't be any troubles starving down.
As of T230, we only need 29 starves, I expect this number to be quite lower next turn already.

Roose says hello... however QSH says he won't DoW SB anymore because he doesn't like our vassals enough :p
Spoiler :
 
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