I'm saying that after 6 turns of exploration, we'll see:
a) Nearby Resources
b) Nearby abundance or lack of Jungles
c) A couple of tentative Resources to settle near (we won't have fully explored precisely where to settle) that could dictate which techs to go for
d) Whether we were able to meet any nearby AI neighbours
From there we make the decision on how to best go about getting ourselves some Happiness.
Mitchum said:
So are you suggesting that we might pick CoL as our first tech?
To address your question directly, if we end up being isolated, we won't anger our neighbours by having a State Religion but it would certainly help us in expanding our Cultural Borders and giving us a bit more Happiness.
If we aren't isolated, we'll be able to cultivate a potential ally (someone that we can bribe into war for Mutual Military Struggle positive Diplo and thereby hopefully get up to Friendly status for heavy tech trading).
So, unlike the concerns about isolation messing up an Alphabet beeline, we'd still greatly benefit from Code of Laws... in fact, if we are isolated, we could benefit a lot, as we'd actually have a Religion and could make very effective use of Organized Religion with a small investment in 2 more cheap techs.
The typical "need to get Slavery, Worker techs, Granaries, Lighthouses, etc unlocked ASAP makes beelining a Religion a bad thing" line of thinking doesn't have to apply here, since we already have those things unlocked right from the start.
The big tipping point for me is that Confucian Organized Religion would give us a good way to pump out Granaries + our Unique Courthouse Building (the Rathaus) to help us REX like mad if we really do have 1/4 of the world all to ourselves, while also provided some much-desired additional Happiness.
As I said, we'll have to make a more-informed decision later. For example, if we meet 2 AI Scouts within the first 6 Scout + Archer moves, then early Alphabet really might make sense. For now, I just wanted to put the idea out there that a good short-term teching goal would be to accumulate additional Happiness and going for Code of Laws from the start is just one possible way to achieve that goal.