SGOTM 17 - The Shawshank Redemption

[ZPV]

@ingentingg: That's weird. Dhoom should PM Alan or kcd_swede about it, so that they can make the change now if necessary.

 

[LowtherCastle]

That jungle next to the pigs is a huge variable that could ruin the game for about one team. According to Gyathaar (vanilla explanation, so assuming BtS hasnt changed it):

Spoiler :

jungle has a 16% growth probability...
the chance increase for each of the tiles it borders in north, south, east and west (not northwest, etc)
after this the chance is raised by another 25% of the original chance (and then dropped to half if the tile has a road)
This chance is measured in 1/100 percent..

chance of jungle growing in any turn surrounded by n jungle tiles (n = 0,1,2,3 or 4) and no road or units on tile:

probability = 16 * n *1.25 * 0.01%

so when surrounded by 4 jungle tiles :
16*4 * 1.25 * 0.01% = 0.8% per turn

surrounded by 2 jungle tiles :
16*2 * 1.25 * 0.01% = 0.4% per turn

chance of jungle growing in a tile surrounded by 2 other jungle tiles (assuming no jungle growth in surrounding tiles) over 17 turns:

(1-(1 - 0.004)^17) * 100% = 6.59%


chance of jungle growing in a tile surrounded by 4 other jungle tiles over 20 turns:

(1-(1 - 0.008)^20) * 100% = 14.8% chance (or 1 in 6.7 )

(unless I misread something in the code)

To save you from some work...

This is the code in BtS (didnt check if it has changed much from warlords)

Spoiler :

void CvPlot::doFeature()
{
	PROFILE("CvPlot::doFeature()")

	CvCity* pCity;
	CvPlot* pLoopPlot;
	CvWString szBuffer;
	int iProbability;
	int iI, iJ;

	if (getFeatureType() != NO_FEATURE)
	{
		iProbability = GC.getFeatureInfo(getFeatureType()).getDisappearanceProbability();

		if (iProbability > 0)
		{
			if (GC.getGameINLINE().getSorenRandNum(10000, "Feature Disappearance") < iProbability)
			{
				setFeatureType(NO_FEATURE);
			}
		}
	}
	else
	{
		if (!isUnit())
		{
			if (getImprovementType() == NO_IMPROVEMENT)
			{
				for (iI = 0; iI < GC.getNumFeatureInfos(); ++iI)
				{
					if (canHaveFeature((FeatureTypes)iI))
					{
						if ((getBonusType() == NO_BONUS) || (GC.getBonusInfo(getBonusType()).isFeature(iI)))
						{
							iProbability = 0;

							for (iJ = 0; iJ < NUM_CARDINALDIRECTION_TYPES; iJ++)
							{
								pLoopPlot = plotCardinalDirection(getX_INLINE(), getY_INLINE(), ((CardinalDirectionTypes)iJ));

								if (pLoopPlot != NULL)
								{
									if (pLoopPlot->getFeatureType() == ((FeatureTypes)iI))
									{
										if (pLoopPlot->getImprovementType() == NO_IMPROVEMENT)
										{
											iProbability += GC.getFeatureInfo((FeatureTypes)iI).getGrowthProbability();
										}
										else
										{
											iProbability += GC.getImprovementInfo(pLoopPlot->getImprovementType()).getFeatureGrowthProbability();
										}
									}
								}
							}

							iProbability *= std::max(0, (GC.getFEATURE_GROWTH_MODIFIER() + 100));
							iProbability /= 100;

							if (isRoute())
							{
								iProbability *= std::max(0, (GC.getROUTE_FEATURE_GROWTH_MODIFIER() + 100));
								iProbability /= 100;
							}

							if (iProbability > 0)
							{
								if (GC.getGameINLINE().getSorenRandNum(10000, "Feature Growth") < iProbability)
								{
									setFeatureType((FeatureTypes)iI);

									pCity = GC.getMapINLINE().findCity(getX_INLINE(), getY_INLINE(), getOwnerINLINE(), NO_TEAM, false);

									if (pCity != NULL)
									{
										// Tell the owner of this city.
										szBuffer = gDLL->getText("TXT_KEY_MISC_FEATURE_GROWN_NEAR_CITY", GC.getFeatureInfo((FeatureTypes) iI).getTextKeyWide(), pCity->getNameKey());
										gDLL->getInterfaceIFace()->addMessage(getOwnerINLINE(), false, GC.getEVENT_MESSAGE_TIME(), szBuffer, "AS2D_FEATUREGROWTH", MESSAGE_TYPE_INFO, GC.getFeatureInfo((FeatureTypes) iI).getButton(), (ColorTypes)GC.getInfoTypeForString("COLOR_WHITE"), getX_INLINE(), getY_INLINE(), true, true);
									}

									break;
								}
							}
						}
					}
				}
			}
		}
	}
}

this is the important section:

	if (!isUnit())
		{
			if (getImprovementType() == NO_IMPROVEMENT)

so as long as there is no unit on the plot, a feature can grow there if there are no finished improvement of the plot

So the chance of jungle spreading to the pigs on any given turn is 0.2%. Not sure how to calculate that ^-formula over multiple turns, but it probably approaches 1% or more, before teams will have the worker there.

 

[LowtherCastle]

My first impression is we'll probably want to send the archer down the peninsula, the scout down to the southwest, and then the worker needs to loop around to the northwest.

The settler then would have a couple of turns to get into position, so we'd uncover as many tiles with it as possible.

On T1 the archer would expose three (or four? can't tell without save) coastal tiles useful for settling on the peninsula jungle for pigs + seafood. If we don't commit the settler till T2, then the archer could make it to the jungle tile to expose 3 more tiles, including possibly 2 coastals.

Whether we want to commit to T1 settling or not affects our scout and worker moves, imo.

If we wait till the archer gets to the jungle tile on T2, then the scout is free to go NW in search of a hill to spy anything more attractive and the worker can go

T0 NW-NW
T1 SW-NW
T2 SW-SW, defogging enough to know if we want to settle north of the pigs, and getting the worker into general position to start working.

That allows the settler to either go
T0 SE-NW
T1 W-W
T2 wherever

or

T0 W-W (equally free to move north or south)
T1 wherever.

So the question is, what to do with the settler? I don't think we're going to settle in place, but if there are horses in the SE, that location is great for a quick second city. What are the chances teams will NOT defog those two SE tiles? If I were an evil mapmaker, this set-up is great to plant a juicy tile there. On the other hand, it gives a huge advantage to any team that cheats... . I say that not because I think some team is cheating, but because that's a factor the mapmaker might consider to minimize their advantage.

===

In any case, I'd move the worker T0 NW NW. Probably before moving the settler.

 

[mscellaneous]

Now that we have made the initial units moves (scout & archer) we should give the rest of the team the oppertunity to give input.

So I'd wait with moving the worker..

 

[mscellaneous]

I am not too fond of settling on or after T2. My experience with rainforest maps (I still think it is a rainforest map) is that the land around the initial settling area is heavily jungled. With that in mind, I cannot imagine we will find a good capital spot to the N.

At the moment, with the revealed Pig, the tile where the archer currently is standing on looks not too shabby. We can move the archers in 2 turns onto the Pig spot to prevent jungle from spreading there.
If we decide to go for this capital site then I would not move the worker N, this would lead to an extra turn needed for the worker to reach the pigs

 

[ZPV]

My opinion is that we can't see enough yet to know where the right site is. We have a larger cleared area than a normal rainforest map. Maybe we're just in a tropical region of a more varied map.
It could be south of the pig way out on the peninsula. (This seems a little less likely to me, so I'm not sure if we should send the archer down there or not)
It could be east of the pig, where we can see (although the pig might have to wait for a border pop).
It could be north or west of the pig, which we need to explore.
It might even be by the SE fogged squares.

The big difference between this and an ancient start is that we have four units, three of them double-movers, so we can explore a whole lot in a couple of turns. I'd be reluctant to settle before turn 3 or so, unless we find a really good site before then.

 

[Mitchum]

Based on the pigs resource, settling on the bananas no longer makes sense since we'll want bacon in the capital. So, I'm not overly worried about what lies to the SE right now since we could always settle a later city over that way to capture the "goodies in the fog" plus the eastern bananas.

So, I don't think we should do the SE-NW settler dance but instead move the settler west.

As for the worker, I think we should move him 1NW and see what we see. If it looks promising, we can move him another NW. If not, he could head back toward the pigs. Keep in mind that if pigs are not in the inner ring, we have a few worker turns to spare, right? Those turns could be used to explore and/or chop...

EDIT: X-Post with ZPV.

 

[kcd_swede]

@ingentingg: That's weird. Dhoom should PM Alan or kcd_swede about it, so that they can make the change now if necessary.

It's an intentional setting for this game for reasons undisclosed until the game is finished. We ca debate it at that time.

 

[Mitchum]

I agree with ZPV that we should be willing to spend 2 or 3 turns exploring. Finding the "optimal" capital site is worth a turn "lost" to exploring.

BTW, revolting to Slavery on T0 seems like a no brainer. I can't see any reason why we'd settle this turn.

 

[Dhoomstriker]

I think that we should move the Worker 1NW Grassland (1N of the eastern Lake) and then pause play again.

Based on what we see, we'll need to decide whether we should continue 1NW again with the Worker (to the GFor NW + N of the eastern Lake), which could delay our Pasturing of the G Pig, depending upon where we settle by the G Pig, or whether we'll go 1SW GFor (1N of the western G Banana) in preparation for Pasturing the G Pig ASAP given one possible settling location.


After making that decision about the second Worker move after seeing relevant screenshots, and agreeing that we'll be moving the Settler for a bit rather than settling on the G Banana, we can plan to revolt to Slavery before moving the Settler 2W, so that we do not forget to revolt.

Spoiler My reasoning :

A G Pig Pasture is far stronger than a G Banana Farm.

That's twice as much net Food output:
G Banana Farm: 4 base Food = a net output of 2 Food
G Pig Pasture: 6 base Food = a net output of 4 Food


So, I don't really care anymore if there is a strong square SE + E of our Settler's starting location; if there is a Horse Resource there and an Iron Resource on the Plains square to the NE of our Settler's initial location, then we'll just have a nice location for a decent City later.


Another important point is that we want to settle our capital next to fresh water. Given the lack of Rivers, that means settling next to a Lake. I see three locations that are next to the Lake and which grab the G Pig in the capital's big fat cross:
i. On the GFor 1NE of the G Pig (1SW of the western Lake)
ii. On the Grassland NE + E of the G Pig (1S of the western Lake)
iii. On the GFor NE + N of the G Pig (1W of the western Lake)


Could there be a River or an additional Lake further to the west? Perhaps, but there is also Jungle toward the west.


We also have to decide how badly we want to improve that G Pig square without needing Iron Working and a big delay to Chop a Jungle that grows on it. While the risk of a Jungle growing is small, if the primary motivation for us moving is being able to Pasture the G Pig square early on, then we should make a concerted effort to protect that investment. It seems that the Archer is best suited to this job.


Now, assuming that we're okay with settling at one of those three locations, we can put all of our efforts toward the G Pig, which includes doing all of these things:
a) giving up on settling on the G Banana or in place
b) giving up on exploring the square to the SE + E of the Settler's initial location for now
c) protecting the G Pig square from Jungle growth
d) figuring out a Worker action that we'll want to accomplish soon and balancing that against any further exploration that we'd like the Worker to do which might encourage us to settle somewhere else (to the north?)
d) revolting into Slavery on Turn 0


The current issue at hand is... if we decide to accept one of those three proposed settling locations for our capital, then what would our Worker be best served in doing?


If we settled on T1 where the Archer is located, it would take a few turns before we could improve the G Pig square. Building a G Farm might not make sense since we'd have two 3-Food squares within our fat cross. So, we'd probably Chop a GFor square. Moving the Worker NW + NW doesn't slow down our ability to Chop a GFor square, so moving the Worker NW + NW would work for that scenario.

If we settled on T2 1W of the Lake (NE + N of the G Pig), we would also have time to get the Worker into position if we moved the Worker NW + NW. We might actually Mine the western GHills square first, since it would be within our initial 9 squares, but moving the Worker in a different direciton wouldn't get the Worker there any faster.

If we settled on T2 1SW of the Lake (NE of the G Pig), we would actually delay Pasturing the G Pig by 1 turn. However, if we moved the Worker 1NW Grassland (1N of the eastern Lake) + 1SW GFor (1N of the western G Banana), we would not lose a turn for this scenario.

 

[ZPV]

It's an intentional setting for this game for reasons undisclosed until the game is finished. We ca debate it at that time.

Thanks for clarifying.

 

[Mitchum]

Is there anyone that wants to use the worker or settler to explore SE? If not, I think moving the worker 1 tile NW is a no-brainer. That would leave us with one worker movement and 2 settler movements left to make on T0... plus a possible revolt to Slavery.

 

[Dhoomstriker]

As for T1 movements, I am feeling a bit paranoid about the Jungle next to the G Pig. Settling by the G Pig can become terrible if that location mostly just has a G Pig, two GH squares, a Lake, and possibly a Farmable G Banana square (possibly not if we settle on Turn 2, away from the G Banana), if we are unable to improve the G Pig for a long period of time.

So, I would argue that while it will be nice to go out Worker-stealing with our Archer, a more important short-term task for the Archer to perform is to protect that G Pig square from Jungle growth. To me that means moving the Archer onto the G Pig square on Turn 2 and staying there until our Worker can replace the Archer.

So, I would push for moving our Archer T1 1W GFor, T2 1SW G Pig


As for our Scout, while we could move NW + SW, I would be pushing for W + SW. That way, we'll have more info about which of the three locations by the G Pig that also have fresh water that we would probably do well settling.


I'm also wondering about the cost versus benefit of settling 1NE of the G Pig on T2, instead of settling NE + E of the G Pig one T1. While we'd be giving up a G For, we'd get our G Pig online sooner. I think that it's worth a test run to see just how much extra Food we'll get compared to the Food + Hammers + Commerce lost by delaying one turn to settle, particularly since our Worker will take a while to get to the G Pig square.

Obviously, if we reveal a G Jungle Gem or G Jungle Dye that would only be in the big fat cross of the T2 settling location, we'll settle there, but if no additional Resources exist to the west, it would be nice to know how the tradeoff compares and if we feel that delaying one turn to settle can do something valuable for us, like getting us a Granary or Settler faster due to having the G Pig square improved sooner (giving us 4 net outputs instead of just 1 net output from working that square that much sooner).

 

[LowtherCastle]

1. Based on what we see, settling on the archer is a mediocre or worse capital. If it's the best we'll get, so be it, but it's crapola.

2. The primary reason I suggested my movements above is to not do double-work in our exploration: The worker is coming southwest anyway, so why not send the scout elsewhere? The scout only saves one turn on the worker. Sending the scout W-SW is basically hoping there's something on one of those two fogged tiles that justifies settling on the archer on T1. That's too much of a longshot for me.

3. If we don't send the archer SE and we do settle on the archer we might make it impossible to get some valuable seafood in our BFC of another city. At this point we don't know if resources are at a premium or not. Even if there's just one seafood to go with the pigs, that's far better than on the archer, imo, even settling 3-4 turns later (or is it?), because our capital could easily do 20bpt or more.

4. I'm still not convinced this is going to be a fast game, so I doubt settling 1 or more turns sooner makes that big a deal. What's important is settling on the first good capital site we can find.

5. I wouldn't worry about jungle spreading to the pigs. That kind of paranoia will NOT lead to Gold. Trust me. That said, I hope it happens to everyone else.

 

[LowtherCastle]

One more thing, I don't particularly care for being limited to examining cropped screenshots. I'd like to see the REAL SAVE. ALanH clarified that it can be uploaded multiple times per turn, including T0.

 

[ingentingg]

I think revolting to slavery on turn 0 is a no-brainer. We definitely want to settle somewhere by pig.
I'm in favour of moving the worker NW +NW to explore. This does delay pig by 1 turn if we settle on grassland forest by pig, but that is a risk that I'm willing to take. I would move the settler 2W1S,

 

[Jastrow]

Based on the pigs resource, settling on the bananas no longer makes sense since we'll want bacon in the capital. So, I'm not overly worried about what lies to the SE right now since we could always settle a later city over that way to capture the "goodies in the fog" plus the eastern bananas.

So, I don't think we should do the SE-NW settler dance but instead move the settler west.

As for the worker, I think we should move him 1NW and see what we see. If it looks promising, we can move him another NW. If not, he could head back toward the pigs. Keep in mind that if pigs are not in the inner ring, we have a few worker turns to spare, right? Those turns could be used to explore and/or chop...

EDIT: X-Post with ZPV.

I agree with all of this except the last idea... I would rather use the 3 spare worker turns to chop a forrest (into a granary, most likely, but maybe in a settler).

We should also revolt to slavery now, since we are certainly NOT settling on turn zero, but could settle on turn one.

 

[Jastrow]

So the chance of jungle spreading to the pigs on any given turn is 0.2%. Not sure how to calculate that ^-formula over multiple turns, but it probably approaches 1% or more, before teams will have the worker there.

Its 1 - 0.998^N, where N is the number of turns where it could theoretically happen.

So N=5 would be a 0.996%, or for all practical purposes 1%.

If we assume N=5 means that there is a 8.6% chance that one of the teams will have a jungle grow.

 

[chopster]

REAL SAVE T0 LINK

Save uploaded. (it's paused)
Apologies if not doing so earlier breached team etiquette.

Worker NW feels like a solid next partial move to me.
I'm less concerned than I was about not exploring SE now, given that the apparently low food situation makes it less attractive for a capital, but exploring it now while we have units there seems the most efficient way to explore it at all.

I also agree there is almost no chance we're settling on T0, so revolting to slavery now is the best time.
I'm also convinced that finding the primo capital in about the first 3 turns is likely to pay off compared to a mediocre/poor choice for the sake of setting early.

In a solo game I'd likely move the scout NW, SW next turn, and the Archer SE.
The bare grass up by the scout has me intrigued.

I have availability on and off for the next 14 or so hours.

 

[Mitchum]

I think we're all agreed on moving the worker 1NW, right? We're not committing to NW-NW yet, so we could always go NW-SW and be in a position to get to a forest for chopping... although NW-NW would delay getting to the GHill Forest 1SE of the archer should we settle on the archer on T1.

For the settler, unless the worker uncovers something interesting, I'd move him W-W so that we could either go north or south of the lake (or onto the peninsula) on T1 depending on what the archer and scout reveal on T1. If we go W-SW, we'd delay a potential city site north of the lake. W-W seems to keep the most options open. But... W+SW may reveal two tiles near the crab which may make sense if we're not comitted to moving the archer SE on T1.