SGOTM 19 - The Shawshank Redemption

Re: Forbidden Palace

Cnip is out as we've already clear-cut it.

Trumpster is an option, as we will work Hammer-based squares after getting our Great Person, but we'd delay and reduce the beneficial effects of The Forbidden Palace due to building it later and in a less centralized location.

The current odds for getting a GSpy in Cnip are 9% with the GW having been there the whole time. Since Hamster will only have the FP there for part of the time and since it gives 1 GSpy GPP vs. 2 GSpy GPP for the GW, the odds of getting a GSpy in Hamster should be less than 4.5%.

To me, this is a small enough chance to take the risk. If this risk it too great, please suggest a place where it makes sense (I’m not sure that Trumpster is the best location).

The point is that we want to be able to switch Civics ASAP at the time of learning Steam Power, so I'd rather have a guaranteed but delayed 2-Great-Person Golden Age to do so than to risk coming up short on our needed Great People and end up having to spend 2 to 3 turns in Anarchy.

Here’s something we agree on. Keep in mind that every plan that has been presented so far other than researching Economics (bad) or scrapping the 3-person GA (worse) has risks associated with it. Even your current plan has risks.

What I suggested for that scenario has us scrapping the 3-Great-Person Golden Age or planning to go for Econ.

You’ve listed this option multiple times and I strongly against either of these choices and would rather gamble.

Just to re-state, the number of turns and the gold/beakers spent researching Economics would entirely consume the benefits of commerce/hammers that we get from the Golden Age (brown idea but it’s close) while at the same time adding turns to our finish date because of the time spent researching Econ (2275:science:). It would currently take ~4 turns at 100% research and -224 gpt.

So, if we did get 3 GPs that we couldn’t use, rather than go for Economics, I’d say we use them in other ways. GSpies can scout and/or infiltrate to allow city revolts (0% city defenses), stealing techs, gold, switching AI civics/religions, etc. A GS could hopefully bulb something. If not, it could be settled or made into an Academy. A GM could be used for a Trade Mission (in our own city if we were at war with everyone – Is this even possible?). A GE could rush a wonder. A GA has several uses.

That is why researching Econ is not even in my mind. We either get the 3 GPs we want and we’re good or we use the GPs that we get in some other way. Either way, 3 turns of anarchy (plus getting to use the GPs for other things) is better than 4 turns of researching Econ and eating up a huge chuck of gold.

I don't know what the Fbii means, but how feasible is it to run, say, only a single Specialist between the time of Cnip #1 and Trumpster Great Person spawning?

This is from your notation:
F] What we do with Cnip depends upon what we get out of Cnip for Great Person #1:
b) If we get a Great Engineer
ii. If Trumpster spawns a Great Artist... We would have been happier with Merchants, but are better with Artists than Scientists and can switch to Merchants.

Here is where your plan has risk. You gun for a Great Artist in Trumpster. But if you get one, then Cnip has to switch from running artists to running merchants.

Sure, you could run a single specialist in Cnip for those 2 turns but it would really push out the birth of our 1200 GPP in Cnip. I uploaded my spreadsheet. Feel free to play around with it or make your own.

I'm not sure how to calculate those numbers, but surely we can come up with a plan with lower odds of messing ourselves up by using the Great Spy in our 2-Great-Person Golden Age.

Yes, there are other plans like the one you came up with that has lower risk… but there is still risk involved.

Here’s the worst that could happen with my plan:

1. We get two non-matching GPs from Trumpster and Cnip and use them for a GA.
2. We get another GSpy from Hamster and a GArt from Cnip.
3. No GA #3 and we have 2 GSpies and a GArt to play with.

I get it. It’s risky. The risk of getting another GSpy (one 9% chance and one 5% chance) might be 1 – [(1-.09) X (1 - .05)] = 1 – (.93 x .95) = 1 - .86 = 14%. Is that right? My statistics are a bit rusty after so many years. Could I have just added 9% and 5% (doesn’t seem right). In any event, there is ~15% chance that we get screwed on the GA.

EDIT: It's actually closer to 13% than 15% since the FP comes late and has fewer GSpy GPP.

If that’s too risky for the team to swallow, we can do something else. I’m willing to gamble but I won’t lay down on my sword for it. ;)
 
I'm going to post parts of my PPP now so that people have more time to comment on them while I work on the rest:

Nappy War Plans

T118:
Capture and keep Ankara

Capture and raze Diyarbakir (iron city). Spear has 99% odds to beat the chariot there.

The following is largely influenced by what Hammy’s stack in Erdine does.

Keep Istanbul (~T121 – cats arrive at Istanbul-NE on T120 for a soonest attack on T121 if we don’t bombard one turn and suicide the next.)

Raze Kona (~T124 – if we don’t suicide cats at Istanbul, they arrive at Konya-S on T123 for an earliest attack on T124).

Keep Samsun (~T127 – if we don’t suicide cats at Konya, they arrive at Samsun-S on T126 for an earliest attack on T127). The plan is to put 1:culture: in the city, whip it if the timing is right, and gift it to HC. This can be decided later depending on how tech trading is going and whether HC will have something useful to steal.

We then need plans for how to capture Erdine (keep for size and forests), Bursa (keep for its strategic location way over by Alex) and Gaziantep (raze iceball city south of Istanbul)

Open Items

Do we want to try to spread Christianity to HC while we’re in OR and he’s not in Theocracy?

Bribe KK off of Asoka and onto HC? If so, when?

Go down on Asoka any time soon?

Go after Erdine soon (i.e. after Istanbul) or beeline Samsun?
Try to pillage Nappy’s horse with spear + mace that razed Diyarbakir (for a later turnset)?
 
Regarding Lali and the corn, I could go either way. It is our only city with a barracks so it really should be a major military pump (and maybe we shouldn't draft twice per your plan). It's close to the front lines so LC's idea of a HA pump makes a lot of sense to me even though ZPV is not a fan of HAs. Even if it builds only cats, it still is a good place to do so.

With the corn, it can grow +1 pop in 9 turns (sooner if we build a GFarm) and get +4H for a total of 29H during a GA and 21H outside of a GA.

Without the corn, it will have to give up the PH mines for a spell so that it can grow +1 pop and work two new GFarms at food neutral. It can then go back to working the current mines for 25H during a GA and 18H outside of a GA.

So, if Gondor stealing the corn is pivotal to WT's executive spreading plan, we can do it. The cost to Lali is -4H (or -3H) which probably equates to two less units over the course of the game with many of them that do get built being delayed compared to keeping the corn in Lali.

I'll leave this as an OPEN item so please state your preference.
 
Aksum and Lali can draft one near the beginning and one near the end of this span. 16/39

As I said, I'd rather not draft in Lali. -2 drafts.

Assuming you can wipe out Nappy by say T129, Then we can draft in Edirne, Istanbul, Bursa, and maybe Samsun if we keep it. 21/39

Not gonna happen by T129, especially without Slavery. :p Even if we captured them by T129, they wouldn't be out of resistance for a while. -4 drafts.

Sarmation better steal the rice for a while from N.W. I'd like to see 3 drafts and 2 respectively, but remember N.W. has to whip 2 execs! (size 11 1/2) so dial back to 1 draft if you have to.

Let me get this right. Steal the rice from N.W. slowing its growth, draft twice in N.W. removing population and then grow to 11.5 pops (current population is 7). That might be a tall order. Maybe a better plan is just to draft once here early so the :mad: has time to wear off and then consider drafting again near the end of the 12 turns if it looks like growth will work here (depends on how much it gives up the rice)

Sarmatian, size 4 with no granary, wants to whip 3 times? If so, it's gonna need the rice for quite a few turns which makes N.W. a bit more dicey.

I'm going to call this -2 drafts because it might be a bit optimistic. I'll do my best and we can fine tune between each mini-turnset if needed to make sure N.W. meets it targeted size.

Adri needs to sneak in a turn or two on Cnip's corn. and draft 2 (I'd like 3 or 4 drafted here, but I don't think Cnip can spare the corn that much. 34/39

Actually, Cnip can't spare a single turn of its corn since it's at 0F in the food box and +0F per turn while running the required 8 specialists to get the 900 and 1200 GPP. I guess when we're starving Cnip around T130 (12 turns from now), it can use the corn but that may be too late. I'll keep an eye on this but at this time, Adri is stuck growing at +2F/turn.

I'm going to call this -1 draft.

Bursa, Istanbul, and Edirne can each do an additional one easily.

As I said before, unlikely since it will take longer than T129 to wipe out Nappy.

-3 drafts.

You had Spicy at 4 drafts. It's at 5 pops with +2F/turn and 14F in the granary. I'm not sure how this city is going to grow fast enough. We've got 2 workers here chopping ( I guess to finish emergency units). After that, they could farm 2 G tiles. But that will take some time. In the mean time, do we work the two 2F G tiles and stop working the two 7C spice tiles? That's +4F for -14C per turn but it does allow the city to grow.

I'm going to say that 3 drafts is doable so -1 draft.

You had Addis at 3 drafts. It has 5 pops and +4F. This might be tight and we'll have work one or two 2F G tile.

You had PT Igloo doing 4 drafts. It has 4 pops, a granary + LH and +5F/turn. Four drafts is going to be very tight. Let's call this -1 draft.

Probably can't afford to draft at all in Cnip or Hamster.

Right!


I count a total of -14 drafts, which puts us at 29/39. We might be able to add one or two (or lose one or two) but we won't hit your 39 number from what I can tell.
 
I'm having trouble seeing how an executive built on T0 (available to move on T1) can make it to Gondar in 2 turns (moves on T1 and up to 5 tiles on T2) such that Gondar could start an executive on T2 with only 2 4-movement galleys and 6 forts. Do we actually need 7 forts?

T0 - Rush buy executive in HQ

T1 - Galley1 moves out of the fort at FW-E (Fort #1), picks up the executive and then sails back to Fort #1, #2 and #3 where Galley2 is waiting. Galley2 moves to Fort #4, #5 and then 2 tiles across the 4-tile lake. Rush buy another dry executive.

T2 - Galley 2 moves to Fort #6 and #7. Executive leaves the galley and walks the five tiles to Gondar (assumes roads, of course). Galley 2 is done. Galley1 moves back to pick up executive2 and then back to Fort#1.

T3 - Galley1 moves from Fort #1 to Fort #5. Executive2 walks from Fort #5 to Fool's Gold-E+E+SE (1SE of the gold resource).

T4 - Executive2 walks 4 tiles into Hamster and spreads ALU so that Hamster can start on an executive.

So I think this is what you were doing but you only needed 6 forts... Am I on the right track?

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@ WT

In working through your plan, I found a few things:

Madrid is not a dead end. It spreads to Seville.

Istanbul is not a dead end. It spreads to Bursa.

Fool's Gold is a Dead End.

Ankara and Samsun are missing from your list.

You're missing one or two islands in the Central Sea but you have Alex Coal, NW Island and HC Coal, all of which are speculative.

NOTE TO ALL (as an FYI): This plan calls for razing all of HC and Alex's cities.

I think I have enough to finally start planning my city builds! :D
 
I like 100% GP chances. How much does the FPalace pay? not much.
Solution: Let's build it somewhere else!

1) we get failgold in Hamster
2) we get 0% chance of a spy there.
3) Hamster still has enough GPP power to do it's job.

Problem solved.
 
@ WT

In working through your plan, I found a few things:

Madrid is not a dead end. It spreads to Seville.

Istanbul is not a dead end. It spreads to Bursa.

Fool's Gold is a Dead End.

Ankara and Samsun are missing from your list.

You're missing one or two islands in the Central Sea but you have Alex Coal, NW Island and HC Coal, all of which are speculative.

NOTE TO ALL (as an FYI): This plan calls for razing all of HC and Alex's cities.

I think I have enough to finally start planning my city builds! :D

Yep, those are all minor details we need to work out when we actually know where coal is. I did already put Ankara in the old plan, and Seville. But this is a long way off. Don't worry too much about it. I'm sorry I put too much focus on this so early.
 
I like 100% GP chances. How much does the FPalace pay? not much.
Solution: Let's build it somewhere else!

1) we get failgold in Hamster
2) we get 0% chance of a spy there.
3) Hamster still has enough GPP power to do it's job.

Problem solved.

So it sounds like you want to use the GSpy on the two-person GA like Dhoom. Fine. I think that makes 2 vs. 2 based on LC's earlier comments but we'll wait for him, Jastrow and ZPV to weigh in.

Where would you put the FP instead?
 
Keep Samsun (~T127 – if we don’t suicide cats at Konya, they arrive at Samsun-S on T126 for an earliest attack on T127). The plan is to put 1:culture: in the city, whip it if the timing is right, and gift it to HC.

plan is to draft it at least once, maybe twice, then whip it if we can....etc.
 
Regarding Lali and the corn, I could go either way. It is our only city with a barracks so it really should be a major military pump (and maybe we shouldn't draft twice per your plan). It's close to the front lines so LC's idea of a HA pump makes a lot of sense to me even though ZPV is not a fan of HAs. Even if it builds only cats, it still is a good place to do so.

With the corn, it can grow +1 pop in 9 turns (sooner if we build a GFarm) and get +4H for a total of 29H during a GA and 21H outside of a GA.

Without the corn, it will have to give up the PH mines for a spell so that it can grow +1 pop and work two new GFarms at food neutral. It can then go back to working the current mines for 25H during a GA and 18H outside of a GA.

So, if Gondor stealing the corn is pivotal to WT's executive spreading plan, we can do it. The cost to Lali is -4H (or -3H) which probably equates to two less units over the course of the game with many of them that do get built being delayed compared to keeping the corn in Lali.

I'll leave this as an OPEN item so please state your preference.

We've already lessened the stress on Gondar to 2 execs (from 3) for the sake of Lali. I would not worry over this city this early...although Gondar is the lynchpin to the whole plan...no pressure.
 
Lali...C'mon, draft once at least. Don't waste that happiness. And it's so close to the front lines. It's not like we have the HE there...or ever will. We gave Lali the corn back.

+1 draft
 
Not gonna happen by T129, especially without Slavery. :p Even if we captured them by T129, they wouldn't be out of resistance for a while. -4 drafts.

You're being a little too ....... I don't know the word for it.... You're trying to hard to make up reasons we can't draft 3 every. single. turn. somewhere..

Some of those cities will be out of revolt, and the draft window I planned was until T132, not T129. so we could draft on Nappy's cities T131 and T132.

+6 drafts.
 
I will not engage Dhoom on this any longer until others state an opinion. This is an OPEN ITEM so please check it out and state your opinion because we're currently at a stalemate.

My opinion...

1-You should have stopped engaging him several days ago.

2- The biggest risk we face right now, is the deadline on the real life calender.

3- I vote for the plan that is clearly thought out and documented (i.e. Mitchum's in case there is someone on the team who does not get that), so that we can try moving on, and at least have a possibility of ending this game in time.
 
With some work, N.W. could chop 1 exec and whip the other.
There are 3 forests there...counting the one shared with Sarmation, so save them, and get a forge in there.
That will allow Sarmation to use the food more.

(+2 drafts)

Oh, and try to make a forest grow there. :cool: We are overdue for some regrowth.
 
I'm brain dead. Here is what I have. Still a bit of work but I wanted to post what I had. I can play pretty much any time starting ~14 hours from this post if we get everything worked out.

PPP – T118 (75 AD)

Turn-by-turn reminders

T118
Hit print screen several times in the hopes of seeing what Alex is researching next. Once we have solid eyes on Alex’s research, start putting more EPs on HC to keep eyes on both while maximizing on HC each turn as possible.

Spy in Gaul moves toward Samsun.

T119

T120
Switch civics from Bureau -> Nationhood
Draft 5 times per turn as possible.

T121
Golden Age ends

GP Plan

This is all TBD. I just left what I had here for now until we decide what to do.

We will not be running Slavery, so we can afford to run the specialists we want. I’ll try for a GS out of Trumpster but I plan to use him with the Cnip GP for our 2-person Golden Age, saving the GSpy as a fast moving, indestructible scout to help us with our Conquest (don’t overlook the value of this). So:

T121 – Cnip (no starving) – 82% GM, 9% GE, 9% GSpy – Next GP will try to be a GArt (~T134).
T123 – Trumpster (starve 1 pop; T124 without starving?) – 64% GS (going up), 28% GE (going down), 8% GArt (going down)
Hamster will try for a GS per Dhoom’s desire but in my plan a GM is 100% fine too.

Plan to fire off the 2-person GA with the GPs from Cnip and Hamster (unless we get 2 GEs).

3-person GA will work unless we get a 9% GSpy from Cnip or a 5% GSpy from Hamster.

Diplo

Gift HC dyes once we have one to trade.

Watch what Alex and HC are teching. Sell them techs if they are duplicating our research. Keep KK dumb so that we can sick him on HC if/when possible.

Research

Gunpowder at 0%. Switch to Banking (for Merc) if/when we get Guilds (won’t happen any time soon most likely)?

Nappy War Plans

T118 (this turn): Capture and keep Ankara

T118 (this turn): Capture and raze Diyarbakir (iron city). Spear has 99% odds to beat the chariot there. Don't risk the city being reinforced for those 2 workers.

The following is largely influenced by what Hammy’s stack in Erdine does.

Keep Istanbul (~T121 – cats arrive at Istanbul-NE on T120 for a soonest attack on T121 if we don’t bombard one turn and suicide the next.)

Raze Kona (~T124 – if we don’t suicide cats at Istanbul, they arrive at Konya-S on T123 for an earliest attack on T124).

Keep Samsun (~T127 – if we don’t suicide cats at Konya, they arrive at Samsun-S on T126 for an earliest attack on T127). The plan is to put 1:culture: in the city, whip it if the timing is right, and gift it to HC. This can be decided later depending on how tech trading is going and whether HC will have something useful to steal.

We then need plans for how to capture Erdine (keep for size and forests), Bursa (keep for its strategic location way over by Alex) and Gaziantep (raze iceball city south of Istanbul)

Cities

Note: Wealth means either building Wealth or Fail Gold (Angkor Wat and later UoS once we give Paper around)

Trumpster
Executives: 2 executives – has a forge – needs to be at 12 pops to dry whip twice
Draft: Shoot for 3 units
Builds: Wealth (built units take too long to travel)
Specialists: TBD

Late Mega
Executives: Dead End
Draft: Shoot for 3 units
Builds: Angkor Wat (has 45H OF that we may as well put into Fail gold while we get the OR bonus) -> Wealth (built units take too long to travel)
Specialists: merchant or scientist

Hamster
Executives: 3 executives – has a forge – needs to be at 16 pops to dry whip 3 times
Draft: NONE
Builds: Forbidden Palace? while growing to 16 pops -> wealth
Improvements: Needs two GFarms
Specialists: scientists

Cnip
Executives: 1 executive – needs to be at 10 pops to dry whip once.
Draft: NONE
Builds: Wealth (only 2H/turn)
Specialists: merchants for now. Switch to artists when the next GP is born.

Sheep2N
Executives: Dead End
Draft: Shoot for 3
Builds: finish CH -> Wealth
Specialists: merchant or scientist

StoneCity - weren’t we going to give this city away 60 turns ago? :lol:
Executives: Dead End
Draft: NONE
Builds: finish cat – Wealth (only 2H/turn)
Specialists: merchants or scientists

Adriana
Executives: Dead End
Draft: WT wants to steal the corn from Cnip and draft 2. I say we can’t steal and draft 1.
Builds: Wealth (only 6H/turn and fairly far from the front lines)
Specialists: merchant or scientist

Fool’s Gold
Executives: Dead End
Draft: NONE
Builds: Wealth (only 6H/turn and far from the front lines)
Specialists: merchant or scientist

Lalibela Gets +2 :) in Nationhood for barracks
Executives: 1 executive – needs to grow to 10 pops to dry whip 1 time (currently at size 7)
Draft: WT wants 2 but I suggest NONE to focus on units instead.
Builds: stable? (already has barracks) -> WE (for Dhoom) -> HAs (flanking II)
Specialist: artist to get the wine resource (22 turns)

Aksum
Executives: 2 executives – has a forge – grow to 12 pops to dry whip 2 times – NOTE: :mad: may be an issue here.
Draft: draft one near the beginning and one near the end of this span
Builds: barracks? -> units
Specialists: merchant or scientist

Spicy Deer
Executives: 1 executive
Draft: WT said 4 drafts but I think 3 drafts is more likely.
Builds: Wealth (saving 30H from chop in case we need an emergency unit to defend against Nappy attack)
Specialists: artist to cut down the number of un-owned tiles by ~9 to prevent future barb city spawn?

Addis Ababa
Executives: 1 executive – NOT SURE HOW TO GROW TO 10 POPS…
Draft: WT had 3 drafts. I’ll try but it will be tight. It has to work 2F grass tiles to grow at a reasonable pace.
Builds: spy - cats
Specialists: merchant or scientist

Northern Wastes
Executives: 2 executives – will have forge – needs to grow to 12 pops to dry whip 2 times
Draft: WT wants to draft twice but I think it’s a stretch and say draft once to grow for executive whips.
Builds: forge (chopped) -> Wealth
Specialists: merchant or scientist. Do not run artists here because we do NOT want to flip the barb city.

Palm Tree Igloo
Executives: Dead End
Draft: WT wants 4 drafts but I think 3 drafts is more likely.
Builds: Wealth (2H/turn)
Specialists: merchant or scientist

Gaul
Executives: 1 executive – Needs to grow to 10 pops to dry whip 1 time.
Draft: 4 times – but this will make growing to 10 pops tight…
Builds: Cats (slow at 4H/turn but it’s right at the front of the action)
Specialists: merchant or scientist (LC thought artists to get to 100:culture: but I’m not sure we need it since we’re now keeping Ankara)

Gondar
Executives: 3 executives - must be size 12, needs to expand borders, needs forge – no whipping/chopping
Executive planning: No chopping/whipping. Run artist for border pop.
Draft: Draft once… could make getting to size 12 dicey
Builds: Forge
Specialists: Run artist to pop borders

Yeha
Executives: 1 executive – DO NOT CHOP since forest will be used for the executive.
Draft: None
Builds: finish granary
Specialists: artist to cut down the number of un-owned tiles by ~7 to prevent future barb city spawn?

Sarmatian
Executives: 1 executive – getting forge – Grow to 8 pops to dry whip 1 time
Draft: WT wants to steal the rice and draft 3. I say draft 2.
Builds: granary - forge (both chopped… if we had a spare worker)
Specialists: artist to pop borders at 100:culture:

Free Willy
Executives: Dead End
Draft: Yeah, right!
Builds: Galley -> Galley
Specialists: 2 artists this turn and then merchant or scientist.
Workers: Pop the border in 1T running two artists. Two workers mine FW-2S starting next turn. One worker roads FW-1E. Two workers fort FW-1SE (1t). THen all three fort FW-E, et cetera...

Other cities included in WT’s executive spreading plan which implies that we’ll be keeping these cities as well:

HQ: 2 executives
Toledo: 1 executive
Barcelona: 1 executive
Madrid: 1 executive
Seville: 2 executive
Erdine: 1 executive
Istanbul: 1 executive
Bursa: 1 executive
Ankara (missing from the plan)
Samsun (missing from the plan)
Alex’s coal?
Far NW Island?
HC’s Coal?

Missing from this plan are the two islands in the Central Sea. But the last 3 cities on the list are guesses so we have 3 planned executives to cover 5 or 6 possible locations. Obviously, we’ll have to adjust this part of the plan once we research Steam Power and know where the coal is.

Open Items

Do we want to try to spread Christianity to HC while we’re in OR and he’s not in Theocracy?

Bribe KK off of Asoka and onto HC? If so, when?

Go down on Asoka any time soon?

Go after Erdine soon (i.e. after Istanbul) or beeline Samsun?

Try to pillage Nappy’s horse with spear + mace that razed Diyarbakir (for a later turnset)?

Keep the corn in Lali for a better military pump or give it to Gondar for a better executive pump.

Stable in Lali?

Barracks in Aksum?

Where to build the FP?

GPP plan?

Things to watch for each turn

Watch for Asoka’s worker(s) and units.

Is Kublai about capture any of Asoka's Cities? He has some units in Yeha at the moment.

Representation happiness keeps bouncing around. Watch it and plan for it once drafting starts.

F5 screen to look for any AI units.

Other things to Consider

Without counting, we have about 260 un-owned land tiles (assume about 2.5 rows at the top and bottom of the map; 5 * 52 = 260). This means that 260/90 = 2.89 barb cities can be supported. There are currently 4 that we know about so we’re good for now. As we raze cities, we’ll have to keep an eye on this.
 
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