Mitchum
Deity
Re: Forbidden Palace
The current odds for getting a GSpy in Cnip are 9% with the GW having been there the whole time. Since Hamster will only have the FP there for part of the time and since it gives 1 GSpy GPP vs. 2 GSpy GPP for the GW, the odds of getting a GSpy in Hamster should be less than 4.5%.
To me, this is a small enough chance to take the risk. If this risk it too great, please suggest a place where it makes sense (I’m not sure that Trumpster is the best location).
Here’s something we agree on. Keep in mind that every plan that has been presented so far other than researching Economics (bad) or scrapping the 3-person GA (worse) has risks associated with it. Even your current plan has risks.
You’ve listed this option multiple times and I strongly against either of these choices and would rather gamble.
Just to re-state, the number of turns and the gold/beakers spent researching Economics would entirely consume the benefits of commerce/hammers that we get from the Golden Age (brown idea but it’s close) while at the same time adding turns to our finish date because of the time spent researching Econ (2275
). It would currently take ~4 turns at 100% research and -224 gpt.
So, if we did get 3 GPs that we couldn’t use, rather than go for Economics, I’d say we use them in other ways. GSpies can scout and/or infiltrate to allow city revolts (0% city defenses), stealing techs, gold, switching AI civics/religions, etc. A GS could hopefully bulb something. If not, it could be settled or made into an Academy. A GM could be used for a Trade Mission (in our own city if we were at war with everyone – Is this even possible?). A GE could rush a wonder. A GA has several uses.
That is why researching Econ is not even in my mind. We either get the 3 GPs we want and we’re good or we use the GPs that we get in some other way. Either way, 3 turns of anarchy (plus getting to use the GPs for other things) is better than 4 turns of researching Econ and eating up a huge chuck of gold.
This is from your notation:
F] What we do with Cnip depends upon what we get out of Cnip for Great Person #1:
b) If we get a Great Engineer
ii. If Trumpster spawns a Great Artist... We would have been happier with Merchants, but are better with Artists than Scientists and can switch to Merchants.
Here is where your plan has risk. You gun for a Great Artist in Trumpster. But if you get one, then Cnip has to switch from running artists to running merchants.
Sure, you could run a single specialist in Cnip for those 2 turns but it would really push out the birth of our 1200 GPP in Cnip. I uploaded my spreadsheet. Feel free to play around with it or make your own.
Yes, there are other plans like the one you came up with that has lower risk… but there is still risk involved.
Here’s the worst that could happen with my plan:
1. We get two non-matching GPs from Trumpster and Cnip and use them for a GA.
2. We get another GSpy from Hamster and a GArt from Cnip.
3. No GA #3 and we have 2 GSpies and a GArt to play with.
I get it. It’s risky. The risk of getting another GSpy (one 9% chance and one 5% chance) might be 1 – [(1-.09) X (1 - .05)] = 1 – (.93 x .95) = 1 - .86 = 14%. Is that right? My statistics are a bit rusty after so many years. Could I have just added 9% and 5% (doesn’t seem right). In any event, there is ~15% chance that we get screwed on the GA.
EDIT: It's actually closer to 13% than 15% since the FP comes late and has fewer GSpy GPP.
If that’s too risky for the team to swallow, we can do something else. I’m willing to gamble but I won’t lay down on my sword for it.
Cnip is out as we've already clear-cut it.
Trumpster is an option, as we will work Hammer-based squares after getting our Great Person, but we'd delay and reduce the beneficial effects of The Forbidden Palace due to building it later and in a less centralized location.
The current odds for getting a GSpy in Cnip are 9% with the GW having been there the whole time. Since Hamster will only have the FP there for part of the time and since it gives 1 GSpy GPP vs. 2 GSpy GPP for the GW, the odds of getting a GSpy in Hamster should be less than 4.5%.
To me, this is a small enough chance to take the risk. If this risk it too great, please suggest a place where it makes sense (I’m not sure that Trumpster is the best location).
The point is that we want to be able to switch Civics ASAP at the time of learning Steam Power, so I'd rather have a guaranteed but delayed 2-Great-Person Golden Age to do so than to risk coming up short on our needed Great People and end up having to spend 2 to 3 turns in Anarchy.
Here’s something we agree on. Keep in mind that every plan that has been presented so far other than researching Economics (bad) or scrapping the 3-person GA (worse) has risks associated with it. Even your current plan has risks.
What I suggested for that scenario has us scrapping the 3-Great-Person Golden Age or planning to go for Econ.
You’ve listed this option multiple times and I strongly against either of these choices and would rather gamble.
Just to re-state, the number of turns and the gold/beakers spent researching Economics would entirely consume the benefits of commerce/hammers that we get from the Golden Age (brown idea but it’s close) while at the same time adding turns to our finish date because of the time spent researching Econ (2275

So, if we did get 3 GPs that we couldn’t use, rather than go for Economics, I’d say we use them in other ways. GSpies can scout and/or infiltrate to allow city revolts (0% city defenses), stealing techs, gold, switching AI civics/religions, etc. A GS could hopefully bulb something. If not, it could be settled or made into an Academy. A GM could be used for a Trade Mission (in our own city if we were at war with everyone – Is this even possible?). A GE could rush a wonder. A GA has several uses.
That is why researching Econ is not even in my mind. We either get the 3 GPs we want and we’re good or we use the GPs that we get in some other way. Either way, 3 turns of anarchy (plus getting to use the GPs for other things) is better than 4 turns of researching Econ and eating up a huge chuck of gold.
I don't know what the Fbii means, but how feasible is it to run, say, only a single Specialist between the time of Cnip #1 and Trumpster Great Person spawning?
This is from your notation:
F] What we do with Cnip depends upon what we get out of Cnip for Great Person #1:
b) If we get a Great Engineer
ii. If Trumpster spawns a Great Artist... We would have been happier with Merchants, but are better with Artists than Scientists and can switch to Merchants.
Here is where your plan has risk. You gun for a Great Artist in Trumpster. But if you get one, then Cnip has to switch from running artists to running merchants.
Sure, you could run a single specialist in Cnip for those 2 turns but it would really push out the birth of our 1200 GPP in Cnip. I uploaded my spreadsheet. Feel free to play around with it or make your own.
I'm not sure how to calculate those numbers, but surely we can come up with a plan with lower odds of messing ourselves up by using the Great Spy in our 2-Great-Person Golden Age.
Yes, there are other plans like the one you came up with that has lower risk… but there is still risk involved.
Here’s the worst that could happen with my plan:
1. We get two non-matching GPs from Trumpster and Cnip and use them for a GA.
2. We get another GSpy from Hamster and a GArt from Cnip.
3. No GA #3 and we have 2 GSpies and a GArt to play with.
I get it. It’s risky. The risk of getting another GSpy (one 9% chance and one 5% chance) might be 1 – [(1-.09) X (1 - .05)] = 1 – (.93 x .95) = 1 - .86 = 14%. Is that right? My statistics are a bit rusty after so many years. Could I have just added 9% and 5% (doesn’t seem right). In any event, there is ~15% chance that we get screwed on the GA.
EDIT: It's actually closer to 13% than 15% since the FP comes late and has fewer GSpy GPP.
If that’s too risky for the team to swallow, we can do something else. I’m willing to gamble but I won’t lay down on my sword for it.
