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SGOTM 20 - Misfit Gypsy Nuts

Discussion in 'Civ4 - Succession GOTM' started by AlanH, Jun 30, 2014.

  1. haphazard1

    haphazard1 Dancing Bear

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    OK, there does not seem to be any more input. I will try to complete the worker so I can hand over to the next player.

    There is one barb warrior around the fort somewhere -- it disappeared turn before last. So I will be careful with the archer.
     
  2. haphazard1

    haphazard1 Dancing Bear

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    Played 4 more turns, the worker is now ready to start improving our capital. More "interesting" things occurred....

    T9

    Our warrior moves north and we meet another AI!

    Spoiler :




    Catherine of Russia is neutral (0 relations) towards us. Oddly, she has not met Peter despite being right next door.

    T10

    The barb city to our southeast pops borders again. Definitely 10 culture/turn there, so I assume it is a double holy city.

    T11

    A lion shows up near our warrior, a bear near our scout. I have placed signs on both tiles.

    T12

    Continued exploration. Hit end turn and our worker is complete. :) Also, a scout from Suleiman has appeared on the road.

    None of our units have moved this turn. Please check the tile usage in the capital, I have not adjusted it. The warrior is just a place holder, although I think we need to grow and it seems the obvious choice.

    The north:

    Spoiler :




    Lots of resources east of Peter, but given his position with Cathy, us, and the coast to the north he is going to have to expand that direction. I doubt we will get any of that region without war. Hopefully we can claim the marble site.

    Be careful moving the scout! Note the sign for the bear's location the previous turn. Not sure exactly where it went, and there could easily be more animals (or worse) roaming about.

    The south:

    Spoiler :




    Another elephant, gems, banana...some nice territory, despite the jungle. Hopefully Suleiman has other paths to expand, I would like to grab at least some of this region. We are in danger of being very tightly boxed in, with multiple rivals around us.

    Note the second bear, south of Silver Lining. And there was a barb somewhere south of the fort a few turns ago, although it could be gone now that barb animals are appearing.

    BUFFY log:

    Spoiler :

    Turn 8/500 (3680 BC) [15-Jul-2014 16:06:22]
    100% Research: 9 per turn
    0% Espionage: 4 per turn
    0% Gold: 0 per turn, 0 in the bank

    Turn 9/500 (3640 BC) [15-Jul-2014 16:06:24]
    Player contact made: Catherine of Russia
    100% Research: 9 per turn
    0% Espionage: 4 per turn
    0% Gold: 0 per turn, 0 in the bank

    Turn 10/500 (3600 BC) [15-Jul-2014 16:09:58]
    100% Research: 9 per turn
    0% Espionage: 4 per turn
    0% Gold: 0 per turn, 0 in the bank

    After End Turn:

    Other Player Actions:
    Attitude Change: Suleiman (Ottomans) towards Catherine (Russia), from 'Pleased' to 'Cautious'

    Turn 11/500 (3560 BC) [15-Jul-2014 16:12:07]
    100% Research: 9 per turn
    0% Espionage: 4 per turn
    0% Gold: 0 per turn, 0 in the bank

    After End Turn:
    Silver Lining finishes: Worker

    Turn 12/500 (3520 BC) [15-Jul-2014 16:14:02]
    Silver Lining begins: Warrior (5 turns)


    Upload log:

    Spoiler :

    Here is your Session Turn Log from 3680 BC to 3520 BC:

    Turn 11, 3560 BC: The enemy has been spotted near Silver Lining!


    The barb alert is just the roaming trireme.

    Save is uploaded, handing off to the next player. It has been an "interesting" 12 turns. :lol:
     
  3. nocho

    nocho Deity

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    Well done on your twelve turns. :D

    Seems we might have country pairs all over, 2 Russians, 2 Ottomans etc. The holy city looks like maybe a 1 tile island surrounded by a ring of sea (edit: or 2/3 tiles, but very small anyhow). Wouldn't be surprised if that pattern continues for the other holy cities. Actually the land around the ring-shaped sea looks ring-shaped too. Maybe to the west we'll find something similar? Could we have overlapping rings, as if it were an infinity symbol? Could fit into the religious theme. Maybe we have Olympic rings even. :crazyeye: Would explain the large map. :lol:
     
  4. haphazard1

    haphazard1 Dancing Bear

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    I am concerned about our position and our neighbors. Suleiman has been pre-set to hate us with that -20 relations, Catherine is never an easy neighbor (lots of demands, large negatives from refusing demands, can backstab at Friendly), and while Peter is far from the worst neighbor he can also be a bit tough to work with. Unless a religion spreads and can be shared (can religion spread from barb cities to non-barb cities?) it is going to be a very tense region. And given the immortal starting units the AIs get, we are already the weakest civ -- even with our bonus starting units.

    I think we definitely need to consider building a couple warriors while the capital starts growing. Do we want max food (the grass cow with 3F) or do we grow a bit slower while building a couple warriors using the forested sheep? The grass cow will not be improved for about 7 turns yet (3 more turns to finish AH, then 4 to pasture the cows).

    Hmmm. At max food we would grow to size 2 the turn after the cows finish (missing growing one turn earlier by 1 food, sadly). The worker would need 6 turns to move to the other sheep and pasture it, by which time we could about grow to size 3. That would allow us to work improved cows, improved sheep, and forested sheep at size 3 for 6 surplus food plus 6 hammers (or would it be 7? Not sure if the sheep tile gets another hammer when pastured?) per turn. So if we grew to size 3 before starting a settler we would be looking at 7 + 6 + 8 = 21 turns or so to get the settler out. That would be T33 or so, give or take a turn.

    If we instead started a settler at size 2, then we are looking at pastured cows and forested sheep for 6 turns, then pastured cow and pastured sheep for the remainder. Hmmm. 7 turns to grow to size 2 + 6 turns at 4F + 5H per turn (54 food-hammers total) + x turns at 6F + 4H per turn. X would be 5 turns, so 7 + 6 + 5 turns or settler ready to go on T30 or so, give or take a turn. After the settler we would grow in 4 turns working both pastures. So we get the settler three turns earlier and the net delay in reaching size 3 ready to work something other than a settler is only 1 turn.

    Seems to me that building the settler at size 2 makes sense. Especially since we can not improve a third tile until we have BW to clear the forests. The forested sheep is good for a non-improved tile, but not that good.

    Of course, we need to figure out where we will send the settler (marble?), what will escort/cover it (if we work max food to grow to size 2, we won't be able to complete a new warrior), and support for the new city (the worker can go with, I think, and the capital can build another while we wait for BW to complete?).

    I will try to update the test map with what we have learned. Not sure if I can get everything correct (colors of AIs, etc.). But with the coast north of Peter, maybe I can use the same test map even though it has our capital farther north than the real game. That should not impact sims of the start.
     
  5. adrianj

    adrianj Deity

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    Nice work h1.

    I favour producing our first settler ASAP. It would be really good to get that Marble site before Peter steal it.

    The roster order is:
    1. Haphazard1 Just Played :goodjob:
    2. da_Vinci Up Now! :scan:
    3. nocho On Deck :p
    4. Ronnie1
    5. Sleepless
    6. McArine

    Advising:
    Ororo, adrianj
     
  6. Ronnie1

    Ronnie1 Deity

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    Looks good h1.

    By ASAP you mean at size 2? Or now?

    Without an improved tile, settler now is an option I think we should consider. Maybe settler until the cow is improved, then switch to warrior to grow real quick to size 2. As soon as we hit size 2 we finish the settler. :dunno:
     
  7. Ronnie1

    Ronnie1 Deity

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    Very basic (not even bfc is correct), 3 tile test for getting settler out and looking at options.
     

    Attached Files:

  8. Ronnie1

    Ronnie1 Deity

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    Test results, done for tonight

    Settler at Size 2_Cow 1st_Walk = T30_105/210BW_warrior=9/15h_5 roads for settler.

    Settler at Size 2_Sheep 1st_Walk = T30_116/210BW_warrior=8/15_5 roads for settler.

    Settler at Size 1 _Cow only_Walk = T28_61/210BW_War=0_7 roads for Settler.

    Settler at Size 1_Cow 1st_insert warrior 1T pre cow pastured, complete = growth to size 2 = T23_ > complete settler_Walk = T31_120/210BW_warrior complete(T23)_5 roads for settler.

    Settler at Size 1_Sheep 1st_insert warrior 1T pre sheep pastured, growth = T23 > complete settler_Walk = T31_131/210BW_Warrior=11/15_5 roads for settler .
     
  9. Sleepless

    Sleepless Deity

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    Well thought I had my computer problem solved. Went to switch on and found no I haven't!!! Back to the drawing board.. :(

    back to the game. It looks like some early wars will be in order so might be better to let the AI build most of our cities for us. If we have horses perhaps a HA rush somewhere.

    Having access to phants could be a reasonable later move if we can but certainly seems that early war is inevitable.
     
  10. haphazard1

    haphazard1 Dancing Bear

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    Sorry to hear about your computer issues, Sleepless. :(

    I agree we are likely to face some serious early warring. Let's hope we have something available to war with.

    I have made a bunch of updates to my test map. It should be mostly correct for our local area and immediate surrounding region. I have not corrected AIs or placed anyone to our north, but this should not impact testing for the near future. I have added barb cities as holy cities, and stuck an AI in Suleiman's approximate location (I think maybe they need to be 1 tile east...).

    Anyway, it is not perfect but should be pretty solid for testing our start and immediate future. The game has been advanced to turn 12 with the worker just finished, AH 3 turns to go. The units are just fortified doing nothing, as actual exploration seemed kind of meaningless. Please let me know if you spot any problems that need to be fixed, or have suggestions for improvement.

    https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/42963317/MGN SGOTM20 TEST v2_1 BC-3520.CivBeyondSwordSave
     
  11. da_Vinci

    da_Vinci Gypsy Prince

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    Ok, I played 20 more turns, and ...

    Spoiler :
    JUST KIDDING! :joke: :mischief:

    I could not resist ...

    I will get a good look at the save tonight and draft out the PPP.


    dV
     
  12. adrianj

    adrianj Deity

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    I agree that we can expect significant early warring. If I were to look into my crystal ball, I can see our opening game going something like this:

    1. Settle 2nd (Marble) and 3rd (Sheep?) cities.
    2. Build Oracle for MC.
    3. Clear out triremes and net seafood.
    4. Amass army (depending on resources) and go to war.
    5. Capture cities 4, 5, 6+.

    There was discussion about aiming for something more ambitious from the Oracle. I think that the ability to get much earlier access to the seafood and the coastline in general (eg, exploring) is a good reason to accept a lower value tech.


    When I say "Settler ASAP", what I really mean is "City #2 ASAP". This includes provision for a) walking to the site and b) defending the site. Of the options you have tested Ron :)goodjob:) I like either Settler@size2 sheep first, or Settler@size1 cow only.

    I notice that you've also allowed for the worker to be building some roads? If we prioritise roads for the settler@size1 option, on what turn is the city actually founded? Compared to settler@size2?
     
  13. Ororo

    Ororo King

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    I would grow at least to size 2 before building a settler. Couple of reasons: a) that way we can actually work both the Cows and Sheep, meaning that improving Sheep won't go to waste for a first couple of turns, b) we desperately need some sort of military presence - at least one more warrior, which should protect the settler while moving and eventually even fortify in our second city.

    Also... nobody replied the last time, so I am going to ask once again: Are we committed to the Astronomy beeline? We have to make the decision relatively early since as I have mentioned earlier it does require us to skip certain early game techs.

    We should Horse Archer-rush Sully once if we have a Horse resource nearby. And considering Peter and Cathy are so close-by, I don't think we should stop with just Sully...

    EDIT: Actually, Horseback Raiding is quite a bit of detour. An Axe rush may be ideal, but I don't think we can pull that one off considering we also want to build the Oracle.
     
  14. da_Vinci

    da_Vinci Gypsy Prince

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    On the astronomy beeline ... this is supposed to be a modified pangea map, right? So do we really need astro?

    Or are we assuming that there will be at least one astro needing city to acquire?

    How much does astro beeline disrupt the typical start, especially given the close proximity of neighbors and the early war scenarios?

    On the city, how important is it to get working mined silver quickly? Is faster teching critical? Where does that fit into the grow first or settler first question?

    dV
     
  15. adrianj

    adrianj Deity

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    I don't think we can put much faith in the Pangaea map option, since it is likely to be modified.

    I'm also not sure how much an Astro beeline will disrupt things. It assumes we avoid Civil Service and the Education/Liberalism beeline? How does it compare to using Liberalism for Astronomy?

    Vs Liberalism Beeline:

    A) 2x GS (Philosophy, part of Education). Can easily throw more GSs at it for Paper and the rest of Education. Not particularly efficient though.

    B) No need to avoid anything.

    C) See above.

    D) Research Astro prereqs: MC, Calendar, Compass, Machinery, Optics. Also need CoL, CS, Paper and Liberalism itself.

    Min techs: Mining, Sailing, Pottery, AH, BW, Writing, MC, IW, Maths, Compass, Calendar, Machinery, Optics + Mysticism, Meditation, Priesthood, CoL, CS, Paper, Education (remainder), Liberalism

    Some of those extra techs are very useful anyway, eg, CoL for courthouses/Caste system and CS for Bureaucracy. Meditation+Priesthood are also in the 'crucial early game tech' list, and needed for the Oracle. (Or Polytheism instead of Medi, though more costly and we need Medi for Philo anyway)

    Ultimately, Liberalism route is more expensive, but we get some advantages:

    1) Do not need to avoid techs.
    2) Some utility / trade value from the extra techs.


    I also wonder if we have enough local warring to keep us occupied, before we begin inter-continental conquest. Ie, we could reach Astro 20 turns earlier but aren't ready to set sail anyway. Hard to judge.
     
  16. haphazard1

    haphazard1 Dancing Bear

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    Lots of good discussion. :)

    The need for Astro is only speculation, based on the hidden requirement needing either 3 holy cities or meeting all AIs. This implies that meeting all the AIs will be relatively difficult. Either one (or more) is not reachable by land/coast, or perhaps one (or more) is hidden somehow (e.g. behind walls of mountains).

    It seems very likely that the barb city to our southeast is a double holy city. So assuming we can capture it (which should be very doable, even if it takes a while to clear triremes and build galleys and whatnot) plus one more, we may not need Astro to meet all the AIs. Of course, if a holy city is not reachable without Astro then we would still need the tech, but perhaps not as soon.

    I like adrianj's idea of possibly using Liberalism for Astro, if it turns out we need the tech. The techs we would have to avoid for a bulbing beeline include some very useful ones. :(

    A question for the team: how are we planning on popping borders in our early cities? Mysticism and monuments? Libraries? Religion? (Unlikely since we can not control acquiring religion early.)

    On planning for city #2, is the earliest possible date for the first settler really what we want to optimize for? Or should we be thinking earliest possible date for second (or third) settler? Yes we want marble city, and sooner is better. But I think we need to consider going for more than just two cities before we go to war. Building the settler at size 2 (or even size 1!) may get that first settler a couple turns sooner, but it will mean a smaller capital and thus delays in completing additional settlers. We also need to plan for an additional worker or two, plus some military for escorts/garrisons. Still having a size 1 capital on turn 35 would mean significant delays on everything after the first settler.

    Also, what do we do if we have no horses and no copper? Adding the two Russian capitals and Suleiman's capital to our empire would be very nice, but immortal AIs start with 3 archers (among other things). It will take some real units to engage in any offensive wars. And that assumes we don't find ourselves fighting a defensive war.... We will have some idea about horses in 3 more turns, but if we do not see any then we have to at least consider that Pollux has been really evil and we won't have any early military resources.

    On dV's question about the silver...I think getting it chopped, mined, and worked early is going to be important. We are up against immortal AIs, and we are going to need some commerce to compete in tech. The happiness will be very useful as well to grow our cities a bit larger.

    With gems visible to our south and to the northeast, this also increases the value of early MC tech as an Oracle target. Forges will provide more happiness as well as more hammers. Add the need to clear triremes to access our 6 nearby seafood resources and I think Oracling MC looks pretty good. This is assuming we can manage to build the Oracle at all, of course -- this is immortal difficulty and we are not guaranteed to get the wonder.
     
  17. Ronnie1

    Ronnie1 Deity

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    My tests showed me what I always new, there's no free lunch! Everything has a trade off.

    If we want early teching to BW we improve the sheep first. The sheep adds 2:commerce: which is significant early.

    If we want to settle city 2 the fastest, settler now, at size 1 will settle 4 turns faster than the next best option I believe. The only way this works is to have both the scout and the warrior fogbusting the path and the worker roading to the site immediately upon improving the cow.

    The real question we need to ask is what will Peter build 1st and 2nd? If he builds settler first or second, which AI do at this level, and he wants the site, we can't be him anyway.

    Everything else is minor trade offs in :hammers: -vs -:commerce:.

    I think I like Settler now, but we need to get the warrior and the scout into the area and hope to eliminate the bear somehow. If we are not able to do that settling T31 -vs- T35 won't be possible anyhow.

    If we go this route, we can always insert warrior and grow after the tile is improved. Worst case here is only 1 turn slower (T36) and we have another warrior available on T23.

    I'm guessing on the settle exact dates. The big difference is the worker roads 7 tiles if he only improves the cow. Every other scenario he builds 5 roads before the settler needs it. So on the settlers second move from SL, he can either move a total of 7 tiles, ohhhhhh

    The last (7th) roaded tile in the size 1 scenario is a forest, so I think it gains us an extra turn to get road there. We would settle 5 turns sooner I believe than walking on T30. I want to test this to confirm, but if so, I would be in favor of this option.
     
  18. Ronnie1

    Ronnie1 Deity

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    What if horses lie in a different direction?

    On the Astro question, we can afford to wait a bit before we decide. We know we want mining > BW next. That is at least T35 and probably later.
     
  19. haphazard1

    haphazard1 Dancing Bear

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    I believe the improved sheep will be 4/1/2, compared to the improved cows 4/2/0. So we can get some more commerce (which is admittedly about a 20% increase in our current total commerce) but will give up a hammer/turn. If we are building a settler at size 1, that is roughly a 15% difference (6 food-hammers/turn for the sheep compared to 7 for the cow). This should cause a 1 turn delay in building the settler at size 1. The sheep is also obviously not in the direction of the marble, as far as positioning the worker for road building or moving to the new city.

    If we grow to size 2 before building the settler, our food-hammer base increases and the 1 hammer/turn difference becomes less significant (~12%).

    As I noted previously, I am not sure that "city #2 the fastest" is the metric we should be optimizing towards. "City #3 the fastest" might be better, or even city #4. I generally dislike building a settler at size 1, and sending our worker off to road rather than improving a second strong tile at the capital just does not seem good to me. Especially with barb animals roaming around, which means the worker must be covered. And with bears out and about, nothing we have can effectively cover the worker when it is roading on flat ground.

    We know from demographics during my turnset that all of the AIs have grown to at least size 2 (some to size 3). So no AI has gone settler first. Some could have started a settler upon reaching size 2 -- no way to know for certain. With their starting workers improving tiles (also visibly from demographics) I doubt we can beat a size 2 AI settler.

    I do not really see how we can eliminate a bear right now. Best option would be the warrior on a forested hill, and even that will not give great odds. Warrior plus scout together could probably be pretty certain of doing so, but on flat ground even together they can't deal with a bear. Better to plan to use the settler's speed to outrun any bear problems, with warrior and scout providing info/visibility. Or build another warrior or two while growing and use them to escort.

    I think growing to size 2 or even size 3 before starting the settler will "only" cost us a few turns, while also allowing time to build an extra warrior for escort duties. The larger capital will also allow for a more rapid third city, which I think is an important consideration.

    We will know about horses in 3 more turns. If they are available somewhere other than the marble site, what do we do? Is stronger military that important at this stage? How likely are we to have hammers available to build even one chariot before getting a second worker and another settler out? I think we could probably leave any horses for our third city, unless the resource is positioned to be very vulnerable to settlement by Peter or Suleiman.

    I would like to also ask about what our new city will do once we have it? Without any way to pop borders (finish AH -> Mining -> BW seems set, so it is going to take a while before we could even think of teching Mysticism for monuments or Writing for libraries), the marble site is going to be one plains cow for quite a while. And that will be the far plains cow, meaning we have to send the worker along to improve it. Or I suppose we could keep the worker at the capital and have the marble city build another worker. Slow, but without any other tiles to improve for a while it might be an option?

    The burned city site might actually be stronger, since it has wheat that can be improved and the grass hill to be mined without needing a border pop. But with a greater threat of losing the site to an AI, I think we have to go for the marble if we want to have it for the Oracle.

    How do we intend to pop borders? We are going to need to do so for almost any site we choose early -- Pollux has set us up with some tough choices.
     
  20. BSPollux

    BSPollux Deity

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    Spoiler :
     

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