SGOTM 21 - The Shawshank Redemption

[Pollina]

Make sure you chop the deer and not one of the 3rd ring forests. Those chops would go into Maastricht/Rotterdam.

 

[WastinTime]

Make sure you chop the deer and not one of the 3rd ring forests. Those chops would go into Maastricht/Rotterdam.

yes, I prechopped the deer (not sure I put a sign up)

 

[Pollina]

Here's an updated tile count.

Assumptions:
No culture slider (at least until t170). No Ulundi attack. 3 cities settled t170 (10+ culture on t171).

Result:
At least 12 tiles over dom limit. Realistically more by running culture slider on t170.

 

[LowtherCastle]

We'd overshoot the domination limit by ~85 tiles, if we settle New Moscow, New Baoding and NorthFish, capture Ulundi and run FS with 100% culture for 2 turns.

We can't run our culture slider until t170. That should will ensure we don't trip domination too early. Maybe CF with Shaka and stack some more units in uMgung to keep it from revolting. We'd probably have to give away a city, if we take Ulundi. We'll easily get the ~100 remaining tiles from (2nd ring) border expansions and settling 3 cities. I doubt we'll even have to run the culture slider.

Right. Thanks, Pollina. So let's see. According to my WB tests, we can build railroads anywhere in Cathy's lands with OBs, which is necessary to move our rifles from St Pete to Novgorod in 1t unless we get OBs before the last turn.

What's the best sequence?

T167
1. CF Shaka
2. Start loading up uMgung with units
3. Bribe Mansa off Liz
4. Bribe Mansa on Cathy
5. CF Cathy

Conditional:

6. Gift Nobamba to Cathy
(7. Liberate cities to Shaka till he'll DoW Cathy?)
8. Bribe Shaka off Liz, then on Cathy
9. DoW Shaka (reset WW flag immediately?)
10. OBs with Cathy​

T168
1. Chop Kremlin

 

[LowtherCastle]

yes, I prechopped the deer (not sure I put a sign up)

Sid/Buffy beat you to it...

 

[LowtherCastle]

Make sure you chop the deer and not one of the 3rd ring forests. Those chops would go into Maastricht/Rotterdam.

Right.

Here's an updated tile count.

Assumptions:
No culture slider (at least until t170). No Ulundi attack. 3 cities settled t170 (10+ culture on t171).

Result:
At least 12 tiles over dom limit. Realistically more by running culture slider on t170.

Thanks. Not running the cultural slider was the key I was forgetting. Just because we have Free Speech doesn't mean we have to run the slider...

Were you still assuming we revolt to Free Speech on T169?

 

[Pollina]

Were you still assuming we revolt to Free Speech on T169?

Didn't matter for my tests. Probably better to switch into FR, in case we lose some tiles by giving some cities to Shaka.

 

[LowtherCastle]

Okay, folks. I'm basically ready to play but can't for a few hours. I'll check back in for any last-minute thoughts you might have.

 

[Pollina]

Right. Thanks, Pollina. So let's see. According to my WB tests, we can build railroads anywhere in Cathy's lands with OBs, which is necessary to move our rifles from St Pete to Novgorod in 1t unless we get OBs before the last turn.

What's the best sequence?

T167
1. CF Shaka
2. Start loading up uMgung with units
3. Bribe Mansa off Liz
4. Bribe Mansa on Cathy
5. CF Cathy

Conditional:

6. Gift Nobamba to Cathy
(7. Liberate cities to Shaka till he'll DoW Cathy?)
8. Bribe Shaka off Liz, then on Cathy
9. DoW Shaka (reset WW flag immediately?)
10. OBs with Cathy​

T168
1. Chop Kremlin

Why not wait with the Mansa bribe until t169? I believe there's a ~60% chance that Cathy opens borders with us without shared war, unless we remain her worst enemy. Not sure if we can afford the -2 for bribing Mansa on her.

If that doesn't work, I'd prefer to go with the Mansa bribe and DoW. Maybe draft a couple infs to protect our border cities?

It's possible we would have to liberate 4 cities to Shaka to get him back to cautious (or even more?). Our city gift to Liz earned us some worst enemy trade negmod(s). Liberating cities would bring border tensions back down to at least -3.

 

[WastinTime]

If we can get Shaka on Cathy, then why bother with Mansa?
Or at least, like Pollina said, wait a bit on Mansa.

 

[WastinTime]

Let's not rush the end. My team lost the gold medal on the multi-gawa SG because of a tiny chance a city would flip. Not just revolt, but flip. I want a 100% plan that either:

a) prevents revolt in uMung
or
b) gets domination even if uMgung revolts.

We're counting on this city to be 100 culture or no? Is that also counting Ulundi is captured/razed? for the extra tiles?

 

[Pollina]

My tile count above had uMgung at <100 culture. No Ulundi.

Problem with the Shaka bribe is, that we would have to liberate 4 cities (or 5?) most likely to get him back to cautious. We could probably take them back, but Rotterdam (and uMgung?) would be back in revolt. I think we could still get domination with culture slider and border pops, but it would be a lot tighter.

 

[LowtherCastle]

Let's not rush the end. My team lost the gold medal on the multi-gawa SG because of a tiny chance a city would flip. Not just revolt, but flip. I want a 100% plan that either:

a) prevents revolt in uMung
or
b) gets domination even if uMgung revolts.

We're counting on this city to be 100 culture or no? Is that also counting Ulundi is captured/razed? for the extra tiles?

Okay. We'll build/chop a settler next turn in Utrecht. We'll whip 1 each in Rostov and Yaroslavl. We won't just dominate, we'll DOMINATE!!!

And this time, Tokugawa gives WT his blessings.

 

[Pollina]

Okay. We'll build/chop a settler next turn in Utrecht. We'll whip 1 each in Rostov and Yaroslavl. We won't just dominate, we'll DOMINATE!!!

And this time, Tokugawa gives WT his blessings.

Sounds good to me.

 

[LowtherCastle]

Why not wait with the Mansa bribe until t169? I believe there's a ~60% chance that Cathy opens borders with us without shared war, unless we remain her worst enemy. Not sure if we can afford the -2 for bribing Mansa on her.

If that doesn't work, I'd prefer to go with the Mansa bribe and DoW. Maybe draft a couple infs to protect our border cities?

It's possible we would have to liberate 4 cities to Shaka to get him back to cautious (or even more?). Our city gift to Liz earned us some worst enemy trade negmod(s). Liberating cities would bring border tensions back down to at least -3.

If we can get Shaka on Cathy, then why bother with Mansa?
Or at least, like Pollina said, wait a bit on Mansa.

Okay. We'll wait. It's something like 3X more expensive when we're at peace, but who cares? The other reason to not wait was the concern you two raised earlier about Mansa getting into a Peace deal somehow. I thought we'd averted that long enough, not risk any longer.

I'm game.

 

[LowtherCastle]

Hm...let me rethink this.

 

[LowtherCastle]

Does being CFed with Shaka decrease the uMgung flip odds? Or was the basic purpose of the CF to free our units to garrison uMgung?

We weren't necessarily going to capture uMgung edit: Ulundi before T170 anyway, so the domination limit isn't a problem.

.

 

[LowtherCastle]

Okay, I added a machine gun and a knight to uMgung, here's what happened to the flip odds:

Flip odds in uMgung	
3.51%	 3 rifles, 2 knights
1.93	 1 machine gun, 3 rifles, 2 knights
0.88	 1 machine gun, 3 rifles, 3 knights

 

[Pollina]

Good point.

Take Ulundi on t170, but not earlier. Better to liberate Ulundi (if we have to) than uMgung.

We can send the Utrecht settler to Rotterdam 3-S, if uMgung revolts, but we probably don't need him for domination.

 

[LowtherCastle]

Note that I'm making irreversible moves to the save.

I have an infantry headed toward Murcia now, with a knight in Santiago and in Cordoba. If Mansa were to capture Salamanca we only lose a few tiles.