SGOTM 23 - Turbo Ants

[Mitchum]

@Pollina: HBR for Slavery, right? Circa T68 or earlier.

I thought that was the plan too. Is she willing to do a Slavery <-> HBR trade now?

 

[WastinTime]

I still don't understand the huge value in giving away Alpha but I guess it's not going to hurt. It's hard to believe we're putting someone into slavery. I guess we're doing it so she'll switch out of slavery in 10 turns?

 

[WastinTime]

Are we getting poly from Gandhi or is that something we could get from Hattie for alphabet

 

[Mitchum]

I thought that was the plan too. Is she willing to do a Slavery <-> HBR trade now?

Forget this question. I guess Hatty has to be Friendly before switching her into Slavery is even an option which is why we're considering giving her Alphabet in the first place.

 

[Pollina]

I wouldn't do it. There is no guarantee that she'll pick Slavery over Caste System.

I was too curious and had to investigate this...

Here are the results:

On the left, I calculated the civic values for Slavery and Caste*. If you give an AI that is running Tribalism BW and CoL, they will switch into Caste when they have less than 15 cities, and switch into Slavery when they have 15 or more cities. An AI that is at war or plotting war will always switch into Slavery, unless they have only 1 city.

On the right, I calculated the values for switches between the two civics. When considering civic switches, the current civic's value is multiplied by 6/5 (non-SPI) or 16/15 (SPI). That means the AI won't switch into a civic that is only marginally better than their current one.

Once an AI is running Caste, they won't switch back into Slavery while in peace mode. While in war mode, a SPI AI will switch into Slavery when they have more than 1 city. A non SPI AI will switch into Slavery when they have more than 2 cities.

An AI that is running Slavery will switch into Caste if they have less than 7 cities (SPI) or less than 3 cities (non SPI). They won't switch out of Slavery while in war mode.

*This assumes that the AI has no workshops built, no production multiplier buildings and negliglible civic upkeep. More workshops and production buildings would make Caste more attractive. This also does not account for favorite civics. Wang Kong values Caste much higher than other leaders and won't switch out of it, even when at war.
** I confirmed all of these results in various test games.

Edit: re-uploaded table with full results.

 

[Pollina]

In case that wasn't clear. The above results mean that Hatty will switch back into Caste 10 turns after she adopts Slavery (unless she is at war).

Now do we want her in Slavery before the war, so that we can declare on her after her switch back into Caste (t74)? Or do we want her in Slavery while we are at war and have her switch back into Caste during a Cease Fire? Both options work for me. We will have to give her HBR and Alpha in both cases if we don't want to DoW early to switch her into Slavery.

 

[WastinTime]

so if we amphibious attack Alexa with her still in caste and capture the Steal City then she'll be down to one city and will not ever switch to slavery

 

[Mitchum]

so if we amphibious attack Alexa with her still in caste and capture the Steal City then she'll be down to one city and will not ever switch to slavery

Unless she builds the settler we're hoping she builds soon.

Nice work on the work and collecting the data, LC!!

 

[Mitchum]

Now do we want her in Slavery before the war, so that we can declare on her after her switch back into Caste (t74)? Or do we want her in Slavery while we are at war and have her switch back into Caste during a Cease Fire? Both options work for me. We will have to give her HBR and Alpha in both cases if we don't want to DoW early to switch her into Slavery.

Interesting. The first one almost ensures that she'll get a GS next, right? Although it would delay our declaration from ~T69 to T74. Yuck.

For the second option, I don't see that as helping too much because I'm thinking that we'll DoW -> CF -> DoW all within ~7 turns (the time for a spy to get the stationary bonus) so she may never make it back to Caste System, right? I guess it depends on when we do it.

 

[LowtherCastle]

so if we amphibious attack Alexa with her still in caste and capture the Steal City then she'll be down to one city and will not ever switch to slavery

I had the same thought, but we need Hatty to stay alive so she has to have a second city when we capture Thebes. I think our simplest solution is to capture Thebes on DoW+1, having our warrior there to make sure it's not over-defended.

But if we delay to T74 and she switches back to Castes, she won't revolt to slavery for 10t.

 

[LowtherCastle]

We need to gift Dummy City to Hatty some time before we capture Alexa. When we capture Thebes, we're likely to lose a unit or two at least. That probably means 3t before Hatty is willing to talk. That's might unnecessarily delay our capture of Alexa. Better to gift Dummy City before our first DoW. Unless she miraculously settles it herself.

 

[LowtherCastle]

Or do we want her in Slavery while we are at war and have her switch back into Caste during a Cease Fire?

This would possiblly allow us to DoW and steal Math (knock on wood) a turn earlier but is only really good if she talks in 1t. That requires 11+ Warsuccess whereas capturing Hagift only yields 10. We could gift her our worker and re-capture or steal one of her workers.

My question: Is it possible to have one of our HAs capture her worker and then somehow teleport onto one of our galleys?

.

 

[WastinTime]

I don't like putting her in slavery this early. I'm on the verge of VETO. Sure, she will probably get us a settler, but also many more defenders/escorts and, in this case, she can build HAs too. Let's just leave her with her pathetic build speed instead of finding out what all she can crank out in 10 turns.

I'm working on my suggestion.

 

[LowtherCastle]

@WT: my guesstimates
Thebes GP T70-T73
T63: 186gps, @14/t => T73: 312gps
-or-
T64: 200gps, @17/t => T70: 302gps

Alexa GP T70-T74
T63: 213gps, @8/t => T74: 301gps
-or-
T63: 213gps, @14/t => T70: 311gps.

Since Alexa is building and working cottages, my hunch is Alexa T74, Thebes ~T72.

Now that I have normal access to the internet, I don't think ALexa has 213gps. I've edited this:

More data

T59 cottage unfinished; GNP 167; 22f
T60 cott 9t to hamlet; GNP 160; 25f
T61 cott 9t to hamlet; GNP 150; 22f
T62 cott 9t to hamlet; GNP 167; 22f
T63 3 cottages worked; GNP 152; 28f

Inferences:
1. Alexa worked 2 sci T59, 61?, 62; 1 sci T60
2. GS could pop during IT before T68, bulb Philo before T69.
3. Hatty's not teching Monarchy.
4.

Edited 6/2/2016

It looks like Alexa has either 219 or 225 gps. I don't know how to make sense of T61. All indications (22f, 4h total) are that Alexa worked 2 sci, but the GNP doesn't add up. In any case, there is still a chance that Alexa pops the GS on T69 and at latest T74. I'm now going with T73, but it really could be a turn or two sooner since Alexa keeps oscillating. We have to monitor it.

 

[LowtherCastle]

I don't like putting her in slavery this early. I'm on the verge of VETO. Sure, she will probably get us a settler, but also many more defenders/escorts and, in this case, she can build HAs too. Let's just leave her with her pathetic build speed instead of finding out what all she can crank out in 10 turns.

I'm working on my suggestion.

It pains me too. Thing is, I prioritize Philo as higher than when we capture Thebes.

As input into your workout, the basic reason for putting her into Slavery is to guarantee the Philo GS. I personally don't have a must-do on the T63 revolt to Slavery. I like T63 Gift Alpha because it prevents her from teching Alpha and guarantees the plusmods. Then I like monitoring her gp production in Thebes and Alexa. We can do that until T68, unless Thebes grow to pop8 and she starts running 5 artists, in which case we may have to decide by T67.

I also view our decision when to DoW and which city to attack first as fluid. We'll continue to produce units, so if we decide to grab Alexa first, after the Philo bulb, we simply ensure we have enough units for Thebes.

HAs for her are still weaker than archers in Thebes and cost more hammers. Not necessarily objectionable for us.

 

[WastinTime]

Alexa should have (could have?) 225 GPP T63 (xpost)

When does she grow to size 4?
If she keeps up working 0 sci to size 4, but then works 2 sci after that, here's when the GS is born:

Turn size4 : Turn GS born

T64 : T69
T65 : T69
T66 : T70

Let's plan to get Alexa T70 or T71 (with Math steal). Let her go to Slavery and create a settler in Thebes, or try to keep her in caste with the amphibious capture. Currently I see Math steal + Alexa an awesome deal. If we can, I'd lean towards the 2 spy plan that make Math more certain as long as we still can get 4 HAs to Alexa for a possible T69 DoW (or T70 amphibious Dow/Capture)

Thebes can be in the next plan. We could get some easy Fred cities or something to use or gift to Hatty. Or she simply builds a settler.

 

[WastinTime]

Let her go to Slavery and create a settler in Thebes, or try to keep her in caste with the amphibious capture.

btw, Pollina, superb research on this! Knowing she won't switch to slavery with 1 city. That is deep knowledge of the game mechanics.

 

[LowtherCastle]

Summary of Key Actions

Pre-DoW
1. Build 2-3 galleys + 4-6 HAs + 1-2 spies + Conditional: Hagift/Fredburg units(1-2 chariots?).
2. Collect eps to steal Math.
3. Conditional: Capture Fredburg and gift to Hatty.
4. Gift Hagift with 50% spy.
5. Steal Math (knock on wood).
6. Conditional: Gift worker in Hagift.
7. Move units into place.
8. Spread Christ to Hagift at least 1t before gifting it.

Philosopy
1. Gift Hatty Alpha
2. Conditional: Revolt Hatty to Slavery

DoW
1. Capture Hagift.
2. Conditional: CF, capture Fredburg and gift to Hatty. Re-DoW.
3. Capture Thebes or Alexa.
4. Conditional: CF, capture Fredburg and gift to Hatty. Re-DoW.
5. Capture Alexa or Thebes.

Have I missed anything crucial?

 

[LowtherCastle]

Thebes can be in the next plan. We could get some easy Fred cities or something to use or gift to Hatty. Or she simply builds a settler.

Ah. I get it. War 1 conditionally ignores Thebes altogether. That does indeed ease the constraints. Technically we don't need Rep until we need the happies or want to run scientists. Nerfs Alexa by 13.5 bpt.

 

[WastinTime]

We will also get visibility on her cities in 4t If We Gather eps for stealing. Will be able to see exactly how many gpp's she has