SGOTM 23 - Turbo Ants

[LowtherCastle]

Data

1a. Hatty needs ~10t to tech CS. Then she could revolt to Bureau ~T74, blocking Slavery.
1b. Thebes first minimizes our whipping and hill troubles.

2a. Tech Math is 8t 100% slider. Steal Math is 2 more turns of 100% eps + spy + empty granary.
2b. Tech Currency is 12t 100% slider w/o Math, 10t with.
2c. We could steal Math in FurCity on T70.
2d. 2t eps + 1t 0% + 5t 100% Currency w/o Math, then 6t with Math. Currency = ~T76 at our current rate.

3. Chariot (+ 1 unit back-up).

4. Alexa pops the GS on T73 at the latest by my current calcs.

xpost: We often don't see what she's teching next till the following turn.

 

[LowtherCastle]

if Hatty looks like she's researching a useful post-Maths tech, look to quickly steal that one

What tech would that be in your eyes? The only one I see that she could finish in 5-6t is Construction. (or Currency of course)

 

[LowtherCastle]

I would run EPs this turn, and then if Hatty looks like she's researching a useful post-Maths tech, look to quickly steal that one and research Maths ourselves.

Philo is on our tech path, but it's not immediately on our tech path. I wouldn't delay Alexa+Thebes unless there's also another big-ish tech worth stealing, like CS. Spending EPs on it now vs spending Bureaucracy-Library-beakers or a GS on it later isn't a great conversion rate.

What do we need for Thebes+Alexa+one tech steal?

At a minimum:
3 galleys
6 HAs
1 spy

Following your argument about prioritizing warring over research, to me the obvious sequence is Thebes-Alexa, no matter when we decide to attack, because she'll revolt to Slavery as soon as we DoW. Every extra archer in Thebes means 2 more HAs and it has 7 pops to whip down and a boatload of fish to grow with. Do you agree with that?

 

[Mitchum]

Don't we have to put some of our own culture into FurCity in order to get a decent EP/Commerce conversion ratio? Or were you already assuming 0 culture in your calculations?

I'd be inclined to steal Math and self-tech Currency if we can make that happen in a timely manner. Of course, a lot depends on which tech she'll research next...

Does it make ANY sense to play forward 1 or 2 turns, whichever is required, to get eyes on Hatty's research? In other words, do any build or worker actions change in the next 2 turns that would prevent us from stealing Math on T70 per your post 901?

 

[ZPV]

Data

1a. Hatty needs ~10t to tech CS. Then she could revolt to Bureau ~T74, blocking Slavery.
1b. Thebes first minimizes our whipping and hill troubles.

2a. Tech Math is 8t 100% slider. Steal Math is 2 more turns of 100% eps + spy + empty granary.
2b. Tech Currency is 12t 100% slider w/o Math, 10t with.
2c. We could steal Math in FurCity on T70.
2d. 2t eps + 1t 0% + 5t 100% Currency w/o Math, then 6t with Math. Currency = ~T76 at our current rate.

3. Chariot (+ 1 unit back-up).

4. Alexa pops the GS on T73 at the latest by my current calcs.

xpost: We often don't see what she's teching next till the following turn.

Re 2a: Wow, it's that big a difference? I guess that does include the 94 EPs already invested, but I didn't think we were going to be able to get the super-cheap steals without a revolt.

What do we need for Thebes+Alexa+one tech steal?

At a minimum:
3 galleys
6 HAs
1 spy

Following your argument about prioritizing warring over research, to me the obvious sequence is Thebes-Alexa, no matter when we decide to attack, because she'll revolt to Slavery as soon as we DoW. Every extra archer in Thebes means 2 more HAs and it has 7 pops to whip down and a boatload of fish to grow with. Do you agree with that?

I'm game for going after Thebes first. Whatever HAs survive will tear through Alexandria quickly (and will actually be able to use the roads to get within striking distance). Can we finagle it so that we only need two galleys? (i.e. the last 2 HAs only provide amphibious support). It looks doable to me. Not sure if it actually helps though.

What tech would that be in your eyes? The only one I see that she could finish in 5-6t is Construction. (or Currency of course)

Hmm. Might have been a bit of double standards on my part - if Philo now is not worth the effort, then Calendar probably isn't worth the deviation either.
I'd take Currency with open arms.
Construction? We have Ivory in trade.

 

[LowtherCastle]

@ZPV
The revolt to Christianity only spares us about 25 eps on Math. Definitely not worth it now. I agree with your concern about delaying warring. I'm not really sure howto measure it, but I'm also just not sure there's too big of a delay, especially if we have to build the spy anyway. We can actually get Math sooner by stealing it (knock on wood).

In any case, I'd like us to have our cake and eat it, if possible. That's what I'm trying to figure out. I'd like for us to come to a general agreement, though, before doing detailed MM calcs. If you agree on Thebes-Alexa, then I think I can go ahead and try to work out how can can get this all done. The delay on Alexa might actually be perfect timing for our unit builds.

 

[LowtherCastle]

I'd take Construction for two reasons: AIs don't like to trade it and a cat or two on our galleys would devastate Istanbul and beyond.

 

[LowtherCastle]

@Mitchum
We'll put Jesus in Hagift. 1 cuts the ep price in half. I don't want to risk playing forward till I wire the MM, mainly because of the spy, but also because Thebes first is a different MM than what I did before. I'll try to get it done tonight. Any ideas are welcome.

 

[WastinTime]

I'll put my money on Hatty picking Construction. no monarchy

I like stealing as much as possible. Math is very critical. What's the backup plan in case we have spy-luck similar to last game? With so much stealing planned shouldn't we get 2 spies going soon?

 

[Mitchum]

@LC I'm down for a) stealing Math and b) Thebes -> Alexa. Make it happen.

 

[LowtherCastle]

I like stealing as much as possible.

I agree. With Jerusalem we'd get 4.5b on our ep. That's killer. No waay we can match that owning Thebes and Alexa now. What if we focus on Alex-(Joao)-Jerusalem and pick off Thebes+ALexa when she techs Monarchy? Do me a favor and run it through your puzzler this evening, see what you comeup with.

Math is very critical. What's the backup plan in case we have spy-luck similar to last game? With so much stealing planned shouldn't we get 2 spies going soon?

I'll look into it.

 

[Mitchum]

I agree. With Jerusalem we'd get 4.5b on our ep. That's killer. No waay we can match that owning Thebes and Alexa now. What if we focus on Alex-(Joao)-Jerusalem and pick off Thebes+ALexa when she techs Monarchy? Do me a favor and run it through your puzzler this evening, see what you comeup with.

The problem with letting Hatty keep the GLib and 'Mids is that we have no way to direct her research to ensure that she techs something useful. However, in the short term, I think just about any techs she picks (other than Alphabet) will be useful to us and we should consider stealing them.

So, in this plan of taking out Alex/Joao first, when do we get Math? I thought the plan was to steal it from Hatty and the best way to do that is to gift her the Trojan city (FurCity?), steal the tech, DoW and take it back all on the same turn, right? If we delay a DoW on Hatty do we also delay stealing Math? Or in this plan do we self tech Math in the hopes of getting bigger and better techs from Hatty?

I'm inclined to continue with the plan of taking Hatty first but I'm open to arguments and hearing from others.

 

[LowtherCastle]

Also: Part of the logic is to increase our production capacity asap. Athens is pop3 so it will come out of resistance in 3t. Joao we could worker farm on the iron. And get a super medic asap.

xpost: If we re-capture Hagift, she'll talk in 2t. You're right though, that might be enough for her to revolt to Slavery. Crap. That's a drawback. I was hoping she'd get CS in time to revolt to Bureau and give us another 10t window.

 

[LowtherCastle]

But this idea wasn't a long-term solution. I'm jjust looking at how fast she can get some juicy techs for us, like Aesthetics, COnsturction, Calendar, MC, CS. That's a lot of cheap techs right now when our research engine is pint-sized.

 

[LowtherCastle]

Also, the idea is toget some production and capture Jerusalem asap, which might be heavily defended or not. The barbs probably have BW by now or will soon. If they have copper they'll build axes.

 

[LowtherCastle]

Hatty is teching 16bpt less than I thought. Why? Because the brain-dead genius is running four artists in Thebes. Does that tell us anything about her chosen strategy?

I also realized that I've been needlessly crunching numbers to figure our her tech rate. Thebes and Alexa have the highest culture scores on F8. Add up her cpt + 6eppt, subtract from her GNP and that's her bpt. Alexa is producing 23cpt as expected. On T58 Thebes went from the expected 17cpt 33cpt!? She's an idiot.

That also verifies this:

1 floodplains cottage (hamlet) in Alexa and 3 fish in Thebes.

 

[LowtherCastle]

More data diving

Athens probably has a castle. Could be a monument, but knowing BSP... It started with 12cpt instead of 11cpt and it increased to 21cpt instead of 20cpt in 3000BC. The significance for us is that Athens loses the 3 tiles that are 3N of Thebes circa T68. THAT'S why Thebes is running the artists. I take it back -- Hatty isn't an idiot, just a dunderpate. We're still good though, because there is still one crucial tile, Athens-2S2W, where our 3 galleys can rally on T72 for a T73 invasion of Thebes.

Here's a sample, unrefined MM that gets the 2 spies, 3 galleys, 6 HAs, and 2 chariots (for Fredburg and FurCity). We'd steal Math on T70 in FurCity (knock on wood). 4 HAs and counting are CII. Wkr MM not done yet.

I think Paris is going to need the Rep 3 so I ended my fantasy about capturing other cities before Thebes, at least until someone talks me into it again.

Take a gander.

Spoiler :

 

[ZPV]

Does Thebes pop a GA/GE before Alexandria gets its GS? If she's been running artists since t58 then it should be due roughly on t72

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[LowtherCastle]

Does Thebes pop a GA/GE before Alexandria gets its GS? If she's been running artists since t58 then it should be due roughly on t72

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Very good spot, ZPV. Lying right under our noses. You're right. She'll have her pick of the two. At +5fpt she'll be pushing up against growing to pop8 at turn too. So she might even run another specialist. And she'll probably run a cultural mission, adding a new cultural ring. The worst of it is, she seems to be dead set on building and working cottages in Alexa now.

That threatens our rally point tile at Athens-2S2W as well. Sheesh. We might have to DoW a turn before we land if it pops on T71. It also depends on how many water tiles there are SW of Athens.

 

[LowtherCastle]

Bottom line: We have to DOW sooner. I'll re-work the MM without the spy in FurCity as soon as I get a chance.