SGOTM 23 - Xteam

I updated the PPP to state that we are spying on Egypt.
 
I updated the PPP to state that we are spying on Egypt.
Are we going to keep Spying on them at a 100% Espionage Rate as of Turn 69 and also build a Spy instead of a Swordsman in XO Cognac on Turn 72?

Personally, I'd like to get eyes on Hatty's Research. Also, the sooner that we can set up a Mathematics theft, the sooner that we can strongly justify going 100% Research on Currency.

Later, say by trading around Mathematics to Joao for Mysticism and by getting Meditation from Churchill for Peace, we can self-tech Priesthood and then steal Code of Laws.

Preferably, we'd make the Mathematics trade with Joao just before we declare war on Joao, rather than after the war.

The tough part with Spies is that we need to build them several turns in advance of needing them, as they require time to travel to their target location plus an additional 5 turns to wait in place, so the sooner that we can figure out from where we'll get our Spies, the sooner that we can ascertain the Mathematics theft for a reasonable price.


I don't have any additional feedback to offer on top of what I've already said. When do you plan to play?
 
I could play right now. A spy in XO Cognac and an extra turn with 100% espionage is ok with me.
 
Ideally, that'll be enough EPs to see what Hatty is researching. Remember that we should get the full amount of City Capture Gold (roughly 100 to 150) when capturing a City that has been around for 50+ turns, so we'll soon have plenty of Gold without needing to save up any additional Gold.

Play away and good luck!
 
Spoiler :

Turn 67, 1320 BC: You have trained a Galley in XO Cognac. Work has now begun on The Great Lighthouse.
Turn 67, 1320 BC: Euclid (Great Scientist) has been born in a far away land!

Turn 68, 1280 BC: You have trained a Galley in Orleans. Work has now begun on a Chariot.

Turn 69, 1240 BC: You have trained a Horse Archer in Lyons. Work has now begun on a Granary.

Turn 70, 1200 BC: You have trained a Horse Archer in XO Cognac. Work has now begun on The Great Lighthouse.
Turn 70, 1200 BC: You have trained a Chariot in Orleans. Work has now begun on a Galley.

Turn 71, 1160 BC: XO Cognac will become unhappy on the next turn.
Turn 71, 1160 BC: Orleans can hurry Galley for 1⇴ with 3ℤ overflow and +1⇤ for 27 turns.
Turn 71, 1160 BC: Paris will grow to size 6 on the next turn.

Turn 72, 1120 BC: Paris has grown to size 6.
Turn 72, 1120 BC: Paris can hurry Horse Archer for 2⇴ with 23ℤ overflow and +1⇤ for 35 turns.
Turn 72, 1120 BC: XO Cognac will become unhappy on the next turn.
Turn 72, 1120 BC: Clearing a Forest has created 13 ℤ for Lyons.
Turn 72, 1120 BC: XO Cognac will grow to size 4 on the next turn.
Turn 72, 1120 BC: Lyons will grow to size 2 on the next turn.

Turn 73, 1080 BC: The enemy has been spotted near Orleans!
Turn 73, 1080 BC: Paris can hurry Settler for 3⇴ with 13ℤ overflow and +1⇤ for 34 turns.
Turn 73, 1080 BC: XO Cognac has grown to size 4.
Turn 73, 1080 BC: XO Cognac has become unhappy.
Turn 73, 1080 BC: XO Cognac can hurry Spy for 2⇴ with 32ℤ overflow and +1⇤ for 34 turns.
Turn 73, 1080 BC: Lyons has grown to size 2.


london,
turn, size, city revolt, sabotage production, unit movement
67, 3, 578, 272?, -
68, 4, 572, 264?, -
69, 4, 552, 71, -
70, 4, 546, 110, a worker has moved into London.
71, 5, 546, 151, worker moved out of London, Axeman appear in York.
72, 5, 546, -, -
73, 6,546, 65, -

turn 68
great scientist somewhere

turn 69
found york with archer, warrior and worker.
Egypt is about to finish construction.
England is doing priesthood.

turn 71
Egypt has started Monarchy. (2 turns)

turn 72
I see a german axeman.

With only 2 archers in London and him producing something that is not a worker/settler I think an amphibious invasion is the way to go.

http://gotm.civfanatics.net/download.php?file=Xteam_SG023_BC1080_01.CivBeyondSwordSave
 
Right, forgot to mention on turn 73 that England just started MC.
 
I also seem to forgot that the warrior in York upgraded to a Axeman. England most have a city with iron to the north-east.
 
I suggest that I do the spy mission and if it succeeds I capture London. After London has been captured I unload 1 chariot SW of Orleans to protect against the axeman while our warrior walks towards Orleans.
 
Yeah, that German Axeman looks like it will maul our Warrior 1, so we probably want to retreat our Warrior 1 to 1 SW G Riv

It looks as though one of London's build items was a Lighthouse.

There is a risk that England might whip a Spearman or an Archer.

I'd be far less concerned about an Axeman or a Swordsman being whipped.

One challenge with declaring war, landing, then performing the Espionage Mission is that the Espionage Mission would likely cost more in total due to missing out on the 20% Open Borders discount, even though we would get an extra 10% stationary bonus.

So, I'm also okay with trying the Espionage Mission now.

If it's successful, then we'd want to:
1. Not move at least one of our other Units (say, the Scout) so that we don't accidentally end the turn midway through our attacking
2. Declare War on Churchill
3. Amphibiously attack with the 2 Unpromoted Horse Archers
4. Amphibiously attack with the Combat 1 Horse Archer
5. Promote Axemen one at a time and attack with them--I haven't tested to see which would give us better results, Combat I or City Raider I, although by default I tend to favour Combat I for Axemen. Don't use promotions that we don't have to use, as a Woodsman Axeman would also be nice to have

I'd also suggest that after we capture London, we don't move other Units and stop play there. We may want to think about how best to deal with what we see remaining... would we try to stop Frederick's Axeman with a Chariot? Would we advance on York? Would we sail toward Hamburg? Would we sail toward Lisbon? Would we Pillage Churchill's improvements? Let's leave our options open for now.


If the Espionage Mission fails, I'd vote for declaring war and landing our troops on the G For that is 1 W of London, giving us likely +1 City Defender to face but better odds of winning battles (relative to attacking from a Galley with 60% Cultural Defences) and having actual chances of our mounted Units being able to retreat.


Since it's such a crucial decision, please wait until we hear from others before proceeding.

It might also help to write yourself a mini-PPP just so that the steps are easy to remember, and to give others a chance to comment on exactly what you plan to do.

Also, while you have some time, you might run some scenarios with the test game to see whether City Raider I versus Combat I would make a difference for our Axemen; if there is no difference in the number of hits for various scenarios of facing off against wounded Archers, I'd suggest taking Combat I, so that we can have a decent City Defender to help hold London.

It's unfortunate that Churchill hasn't met Frederick yet, so we can't bribe Churchill to attack Frederick.


Nice work on throwing together our army on such a tight schedule! Excellently played! :cool:
 
I have looked at the combat1/city raider 1 already. Combat 1 gives better odds.

Mini-PPP
Execute city revolt mission in London, if fails stop play
declare war
Attack London with two 0 xp horse archers from galley. Then combat 1 HA, then combat 1 axeman. Attacking last with chariot.
stop play and hand over to Cactus Pete.
 
Sorry to be late to the fight.

I'm fine with an espionage dependent amphibious landing. Would suggest that by moving galley 4 last, you may capture London without it and be able to unload its units into Orleans this turn to deal with Fred's axe sooner.
 
Real life pulled me away for a few moments.

Starting to play now.
 
And the espionage mission failed.
Spoiler :

Turn 73, 1080 BC: A French Spy 1 (Paris) has been stumbled upon while operating near the English city of London!


Does Cactus Pete want to save us now?
 
Tough luck. I don't see any alternative but to DOW, land all our units, and attack next turn. I can and would do that, but you're up on the rest of the PPP for this turn. Only issue that I can see is whether it is still optimal to attack first with the non-promoted HA's.

Perhaps it would make sense for you to DOW, land units, complete the turn, start the next one, see what is produced in London, and pause for analysis and discussion.
 
Interesting Times.

Three options:
i) amphib assault against 2 archers: culture defence+CG bonus+stationary bonus +amphibious penalty adds up to low odds.
ii) land assault next turn, probably against 3 archers, slightly better odds but one more defender. Not clever enough (or dedicated enough) to calculate odds but my guess is that it ain't much better than amphib this turn because of extra defender and could be worse.
iii) pretend we're not attacking Chill (assuming we haven't declared yet) and use troops against Fred. Better odds perhaps but a waste of 4 galleys.

My preference is amphib assault now. Probability is irrelevant to one shot scenarios (such as sgotm and real life), we either get lucky this time or we don't. If we succeed then we're still competing. If we fail we're no longer competitive. If we bottle out we're falling behind.
 
It is not obvious that landing is the best option. We might consider just attack anyhow.
 
I do not really have time tomorrow and someone need to see what has best odds of success.
 
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