The above numbers are for the Hammers needed by AIs to complete build items. Since Churchill has 38 Hammers in a build item, and since a Swordsman would have been completed already, he cannot be building a Swordsman in York (nor could he be building any build item that costs 38 or less Hammers for him to complete, which is why I ordered some possible build items in descending order of cost).
I was suggesting that we land an axe first and, if the axe sees that there is already a third defender in York and therefore likely to be a fourth next turn, then we pause to consider not landing the remaining units
True. We could have our Chariot 2 (the one on a Galley) Pillage the Stone even right now (on Turn 73), blocking a 3-Hammer square from being used, while simultaneously baiting the Axeman.
If we're hesitant about Pillaging it, we could just park Chariot on that square for the same two purposes, letting Churchill get +2 Hammers on the following turn when we move away from the Stone (relative to him working a G For square) for the sake of us not having to rebuild the Improvement later.
If the Axeman does attack us there, it will be the loss of the Chariot and our wounded Chariot 1 can probably make the kill.
That seems a bit extreme, given your reasons for staying at war. Don't want to have to do it, but not sure 80 gold to avoid peace and get an axe wouldn't be the lesser of two evils, depending on the circumstances. Hopefully gold from city capture and GLH trade routes will be forthcoming.
You're right, it is a bit extreme, so let's leave it as an option, although as an unpleasant one. I'm used to seeing a cost of 120 Gold for an Axeman (the cost must be Difficulty-dependent), but 80 Gold still is a reasonably-high price to pay, with us only needing 10 Gold per Turn for a 100% Espionage/Science Rate. If it comes down to a decision of needing to upgrade a Unit versus make Peace/Cease Fire, that time sounds like a good time to stop play and consult with the team to get consensus.
The current plan calls for Paris building Horse Archer -> Chariot, with us completing the Chariot after 2 additional turns (completing it on Turn 75 to be moved on Turn 76), but optionally completing it after 1 turn by stealing XO Cognac's Copper on Turn 74 so that it can be moved into Orleans on Turn 75.
If Frederick follows us to Orleans, we could move both the newly-built Chariot and Warrior 1 into Orleans on the same turn as each other. Otherwise, I'd suggest not putting any Units inside of Orleans, as we've found that leaving the City completely empty of Units has kept Frederick away to date, but whenever we put in at least 1 Unit (even a Galley) inside of Orleans at the end of our turn, Frederick sees the City as a valid target.
If possible, we should capture at least Hamburg before the war with Frederick is over, for multiple reasons:
It it coastal, so it will go well with The Great Lighthouse
It would prevent Frederick from building Galleys to harass us
It should open up access to a Trade Network with Stalin
But, it's a matter of priority. York is vulnerable now and as Cactus Pete said, it's ownership by Churchill severely limits London's viability--that situation will get worse once York's Cultural Borders expand a second time.
After that, we want to hit up Hatty as soon as we can, with Lisbon being a valid mini-detour.
I'd see Hamburg as a later target, once we have more Military Units than can fit on our fleet of Galleys. When that will happen will depend upon how long our current Military Units will survive relative to us building new ones; it's not a factor that will be easy to predict (London being anywhere from 2 to 6+ Units being lost is not really a factor that we could have predicted, although our plans really should accommodate having enough Units to attack and win our major battles with a near-worst-case scenario of random number generator bad luck).
To reiterate, he will likely be one of the few AIs who won't meet the other AIs, which makes him special and worth keeping around for future diplomatic uses, be it gifting him Cities near the end of the game to get a Defensive Pact with him, letting him REX to the locations in England that we don't want and getting him to to Friendly (allowing us to have an AI on whom we can repeatedly declare war to get him up to Friendly status via City Liberation without angering a lot of other AIs), or just having an AI whom we can easily crush later be available to take a City that we capture but temporarily can't hold, due to him having a low City count. There are a lot of options there, so I'm not seeing why we'd benefit more by killing him off than by keeping Churchill alive.
The AIs will expand if there is uncontested land into which they can expand. After an AI expands, its Research rate will pick up (particularly after we stop cutting off inter-continental, Foreign Trade Routes by being at war with Churchill). And, unless someone knows a way to break Colonial Maintenance when Vassals are enabled, 3 Cities is our practical financial limit in England, so there should be room for Churchill to expand to, based on what we see of England already--without spotting Cultural Borders for Churchill's 3rd City (called Nottingham based on my updating the test game), there should easily be a row of 3 extra Cities that can be fit in to the north of London and York.
It will be nice to find out exactly where the Iron City is located to see if we want it (after Churchill expands to another location) or if we want to settle a different City in England before Churchill does. And, it will be nice to know whether we'll want to eventually abandon York if there are two other better City locations in England before we build a lot of infrastructure in York.
That's also an option. But, I can predict what we'll find: One City with 60% Cultural Defences in it (due to The Oracle), no Horse or Copper Resources within Alex's Culture (since he hasn't connected any yet but would have expanded his Cultural Borders to London's equivalent before Turn 40), a stack of Archers that may have Promotions from Frederick's Units, and possibly Pillaged land thanks to Frederick. He also has 2 Sheep Resources and 2 Clam Resources. What else would we be wanting to find at the moment?
We're already working on a Road toward Alex. Hopefully, by the time that we can spare some troops to send at him, the Road will be completed and he'll have actually built at least a second City, giving us a bit more value out of detouring our Units that far (capturing at least 2 Cities instead of just 1 to help make the trip more worthwhile).
By the way, Hatty is a tech monster. In updating the test game's techs for the AIs whom we have met in the real game, it appears that she must already know Philosophy and Construction in the real game.
Settling 3 S of Paris does have the risk of us having to chain-gift two Cities to her, but it's still probably the best location, since we have a decent amount of Culture on that spot and we haven't left anywhere else within Paris' Cultural influence to be able to settle a City due to our compact empire.
4 S of Paris doesn't really do much for us, as it's not within our Culture, so we wouldn't get the Cultural bonus for stealing techs, which can be a pretty significant discount.
I'm really sorry to see you go. I sincerely hope that you'll take some time to reconsider!
In the test game, Joao won't trade us Mysticism, but he will in the real game. The reason must be because he met some of the more-backward AIs (Frederick and Stalin).
I'm going to suggest that we keep Joao relatively isolated by Closing Borders with him now. In both the test game and the real game, he has sent a Scout to us (2 in the real game). If he meets Frederick, he'll know a backward AI and will be less likely to trade us techs. If he gets Open Borders with Frederick, he would likely meet Stalin and then the situation would be worse, and Joao would lose his value as being one of the AIs who might learn a tech that Hatty knows and trade it to us.
With Hatty teching so quickly, the chances of trading techs with her will be small, but if Joao learns a tech that she knows without him knowing a lot of the other AIs, Joao might just trade us that tech of Hatty's, saving us from having to steal said tech.
PPP (I prefer not to be the one to play it unless we lack volunteers)
Open Items A] Should the Scout go to England or to Greece? Answer: England at first, but if we can get a Woodsman II Axeman, we can send the Scout back to our mainland and then on to Greece.
B] Are we okay with the plan of ignoring Churchill's Worker, aiming to attack York on Turn 75 with mostly land-based attacks and one amphibious Horse Archer or do we prefer a different way of using our units? Answer: It seems like the consensus is yes.
C] Future Worker actions could use some input. Ideas have been discussed.
Diplo Policy
Christianity? No
Stop trading with another AI? No
Give a Resource? Yes (There isn't an enforced 10 turns of Peace for saying yes)
Peace deal or Open Borders? No--we should be the ones to decide when these deals happen
Give a Tech? No to Joao (since we'll be going for Lisbon soon), yes to anyone else
Reasons for stopping
We meet a new AI
One of our Cities (probably Orleans but maybe London) is threatened
Something in the plan sounds wrong EDIT: We reveal a Chariot in York on Turn 74
Actions for each turn
Ask Alex to attack Berlin
Turn 73, 1080 BC
100% Espionage Rate on Hatty
Close Borders with Joao
Trade Sheep from Alex <-> Deer
Cities
Paris switches to building a Horse Archer and 2-pop-whips it
XO Cognac steals the Copper (Work: Fish, Cow, Horse, and Copper)
London builds a Granary
Units
1. Warrior 1 retreats from Axeman. If Axeman follows, plan to enter Orleans at the same time as the Paris-built Chariot. Otherwise, head somewhere safe, such as 1 S of Orleans
2. Galley 2 goes into London to unload Horse Archer 3
3. Horse Archer 3 unloads in London (giving us the option of attacking a baited unit next turn or else moving to 1 SE of York next turn)
4. Galley 4 (Galley 3 in the test game) goes into London to unload Chariot 2
5. Chariot 2 unloads in London and moves to the Stone as bait, where we'll be able to see its attacker's health next turn if the bait works and our Chariot dies
6. The other units that are on boats stay on their boats
7. The other 2 boats move to 2 S of London, where we'll be in our Cultural Borders and can load the Paris-built Horse Archer next turn
EDIT: 8. The Scout moves to the G Riv For where Worker 1 is Chopping (2 S of the Fish) and will board the Galley with Horse Archer 3 on Turn 74
Double-checking: We Closed Borders with Joao, we are running a 100% Espionage Rate, and we have whipped a Horse Archer in Paris
Workers
Worker 1: EDIT: If we complete the Forest Chop on Turn 75, we can complete The Great Lighthouse on Turn 75. But, the Worker will Chop the Forest on Turn 74, which puts too many overflow Hammers into our Spy. So, we need to delay the Chop for 1 turn, probably by building a partial Cottage. EDIT: i. Build a partial Cottage on the G Riv For that is NE + N of XO Cognac, then STOP
ii. Chop the G Riv For NE + N of XO Cognac into The Great Lighthouse (confirm that the Forest is "lit up" in XO Cognac and not in Paris)--we should get this Chop on Turn 75
iii. Move 1 SE G Riv (1 W of Paris), partial Cottage, and STOP
iv. Move 1 S G Riv Road (1 SW of Paris) and Farm
Worker 2:
i. Road the GH that is NE + E of Lyons
ii. Move to the Fur
iii. Camp then Road the Fur
Worker 3:
i. Chop the GH For into Orleans' Granary EDIT: ii. If it is safe, move 1 N G (1 SE of Orleans) and build a Road; if it's not safe to move there but it is safe where he is standing, maybe build a Road on the GH where he is standing first
iii. Move along the Road to 1 SW of Orleans and build a Road there
Double-checking: Worker 1 has stopped Cottaging so that it can Chop starting next turn.
Turn 74, 1040 BC
Cities
Paris builds a Chariot EDIT: XO Cognac switches to the Spy and 2-pop-whips it; work Cow and Horse (we'll complete The Great Lighthouse next turn)
If Frederick is coming for Orleans, Paris can steal the Copper to complete the Chariot this turn
Units
1. The Paris-built Horse Archer boards an empty Galley
EDIT: 2. The Scout boards that same Galley
3. We send one Galley to unload an Axeman on the G For that is 1 SE of York, then stop play if we see 3 Units guarding York
Assuming that York only has 2 defenders, since we didn't stop play...
4. If the Axeman took the bait and we lost, we can use Chariot 1 and then Horse Archer 3 to kill him (Promote Horse Archer 3 to Combat I first), while still having movement points to move to 1 SE of York (for any of our Units that didn't die in the attack).
Spoiler:
If we lost BOTH Units, we'll need to kill that Axeman somehow, probably with an amphibious Axeman attack, then cry a lot. Of course, the Axeman might not take the bait and we could then end up losing a stack of Units attacking York and still cry
5. Move Chariot 2, Chariot 1, and Horse Archer 3 to 1 SE of York (if the Axeman didn't take the bait or if any of them are still alive after dealing with the bait)
6. Unload our other Units at 1 SE of York
7. The Galley with the Paris-built Horse Archer won't be able to unload the Horse Archer but can position itself 1 SW of the Stone, to be able to amphibiously assault York next turn
8. Our Galleys can probably all wait at 1 SW of the Stone, with the hopes of doing well in the attack and having Units available to board quickly and sail toward Lisbon
Turn 75, 1000 BC
Cities
Paris can either complete its Chariot or start on a Horse Archer if we completed the Chariot last turn
Orleans steals back its Cow and works Fish + Cow
Lyons whips its Granary (compared to whipping on Turn 74, we'll earn +1 Hammer and +1 Commerce but lose 1 Food from only putting 10 Food instead of 11 Food into the Granary--either approach could work, as we'll grow to Size 4 on Turn 83 for either case)
Units
If there are 3 or more defenders in York, stop play to assess the situation
Otherwise, do our best with the attack on York and then stop play to figure out our next steps
Since Churchill has 38 Hammers in a build item, and since a Swordsman would have been completed already, he cannot be building a Swordsman in York Sorry, I wasn't attending well there. Still interested to know for future reference if your figures include hammers that can be added IBT. That is, could he complete a wall by utilizing 6 hammers IBT or is 38 the maximum before next turn?
True. We could have our Chariot 2 (the one on a Galley) Pillage the Stone even right now (on Turn 73), blocking a 3-Hammer square from being used, while simultaneously baiting the Axeman.
If we're hesitant about Pillaging it, we could just park Chariot on that square for the same two purposes, letting Churchill get +2 Hammers on the following turn when we move away from the Stone (relative to him working a G For square) for the sake of us not having to rebuild the Improvement later. Like this better. Suspect that the extra hammers at that point will not effect his ability to whip a unit.
If the Axeman does attack us there, it will be the loss of the Chariot and our wounded Chariot 1 can probably make the kill. Doubt he'll attack unless a third unit is built IBT. But, if that were to happen, his attacking could be critical to any chance of quickly gaining York, so I really like this tactic.
If it comes down to a decision of needing to upgrade a Unit versus make Peace/Cease Fire, that time sounds like a good time to stop play and consult with the team to get consensus. Concur.
The current plan calls for Paris building Horse Archer -> Chariot, with us completing the Chariot after 2 additional turns (completing it on Turn 75 to be moved on Turn 76), but optionally completing it after 1 turn by stealing XO Cognac's Copper on Turn 74 so that it can be moved into Orleans on Turn 75. Check.
If Frederick follows us to Orleans, we could move both the newly-built Chariot and Warrior 1 into Orleans on the same turn as each other. Otherwise, I'd suggest not putting any Units inside of Orleans, as we've found that leaving the City completely empty of Units has kept Frederick away to date, but whenever we put in at least 1 Unit (even a Galley) inside of Orleans at the end of our turn, Frederick sees the City as a valid target. Follow that.
After that, we want to hit up Hatty as soon as we can, with Lisbon being a valid mini-detour. "Hit up" means steal tech?
There are a lot of options there, so I'm not seeing why we'd benefit more by killing him off than by keeping Churchill alive. One benefit unmentioned is that we will have less unhappiness in London and York, especially while at war.
What else would we be wanting to find at the moment [about Greece]?
Well, I'd still like to know exactly where Athens is located and if the gems are in the BFC. Also whether through Greece is a good route to get at Hats with immediacy, but that can indeed wait. On the other hand, if we succeed in capturing York, it's very likely that at least one of our mounted units, which will be attacking in the second wave, will survive, and we can heal it (perhaps in a galley) and explore England, looking for a worker to pick off, while rebuilding our army.
I'm going to suggest that we keep Joao relatively isolated by Closing Borders with him now. Fine with this. Would we be able to re-open them in 10 turns?
PPP (I prefer not to be the one to play it unless we lack volunteers) I will be going out of the country and completely out of contact on the 20th for ten days, so I'll try to contribute this week but would be delighted to step aside and let others play. Neil, where are you?
Open Items
A] Should the Scout go to England or to Greece?
B] Are we okay with the plan of ignoring Churchill's Worker, aiming to attack York on Turn 75 with mostly land-based attacks and one amphibious Horse Archer or do we prefer a different way of using our units? Tentatively, yes. Have you attacked York this way in the test game, yet?
C] Future Worker actions could use some input
3. Horse Archer 3 unloads in London (giving us the option of attacking a baited unit next turn or else moving to 1 SE of York next turn) Again, why does he have to unload to be able to attack next turn? If we keep him aboard and our axe spots trouble in York, then we might want to use him to capture a worker.
Workers
Worker 1:
i. Chops the G Riv For NE + N of XO Cognac into The Great Lighthouse (confirm that the Forest is "lit up" in XO Cognac and not in Paris)
ii. We need a task for him next. Maybe build a Cottage at 1 W of Paris? (That square is shared with XO Cognac.) Prefer to move him into Paris, then complete the road to Orleans before mining the joint Paris/Orleans hill.
Worker 2:
i. Road the GH that is NE + E of Lyons
ii. Move to the Fur
iii. Camp then Road the Fur
Worker 3:
i. Chop the GH For into Orleans' Granary
ii. We need a task for him next. Maybe Mine the GH at SE + S of Orleans where he's Chopping? After the chop, he might best serve us in England, if capturing a worker there proves problematic
Units
If there are 3 or more defenders in York, stop play to assess the situation
Otherwise, do our best with the attack on York and then stop play to figure out our next steps
Pete you have been following and contributing to the current Planning. If you could play to turn 75 before you leave it would help. Any way, I guess I am at least "on deck" unless Neil volunteers.
What about, send the scout to England and the spy to Greece -> Egypt.
Still interested to know for future reference if your figures include hammers that can be added IBT. That is, could he complete a wall by utilizing 6 hammers IBT or is 38 the maximum before next turn?
On Churchill's Turn 72, he already earned 38 Hammers in a build item. On Churchill's Turn 73, assuming that he makes 7 base Hammers from us standing on his Stone, if he is building City Walls right now, he will make 7 * (base cost of the item + Protective Trait bonus + Stone bonus) = 7 * (1.0 + 1.0 + 1.0) = 7 * 3 = 21 additional Hammers in the City Walls, giving him 38 + 21 = 59 Hammers in the City Walls, and since City Walls cost 44 Hammers for an AI, he'd complete the City Walls and would have some Hammers overflowing.
If he is building City Walls now, he would be able to complete them even if we Pillaged his Stone due to his Protective Trait bonus Hammers with him earning even as few as ( 44 - 38 ) / 2 = 6 / 2 = 3 base Hammers, with the Stone's bonus probably only giving him 1 extra overflow Hammer (since bonus Hammers don't carry over to the next build item and thus there only being a couple of base Hammers to which the Stone's bonus could apply), so I'm okay with the idea of not Pillaging his Stone.
SpoilerMore details :
Think of it this way:
At the end of our turn when we complete a build item, that build item gets completed as soon as we end our turn, before the AIs start their turns. If we don't complete a build item, any Hammers that we earned go into our current build item at the end of our turn, before the AIs start their turns.
It works the same way for the AIs.
The order of the players is almost always the human player being the first player.
The order that the AIs play in is listed on several of the "F4" screens. Specifically, after we play, it's Frederick's turn. At the end of Frederick's turn, any unit that he has completed appears on the map. Any build item that he hasn't completed has some Hammers go into it. It's those Hammers that we can Sabotage (destroy) using the Sabotage Production Espionage Mission.
That Espionage Mission's cost is relative to how many Hammers we will be destroying, plus a combination of other variables, such as how many EPs Frederick has earned in the game and how many EPs we have earned in the game.
We can "isolate" the other variables by comparing the cost of the Sabotage Production Espionage Mission against the cost of a different Espionage Mission that doesn't involve the Hammers factor, leaving the only difference being the quantity of Hammers.
The quantity of Hammers represents Hammers that were already spent.
Since Churchill plays after Frederick plays, any Unit that Frederick built will have already appeared on the map when it is Churchill's turn. If both AIs were going to complete a Unit in their capital on Turn 73, and each AI had an army assaulting the other player's capital, with Frederick playing first, Churchill's additional City Defender would not get built until the end of Churchill's turn, and since Frederick plays before Churchill does, Churchill's Unit would not have appeared in his capital and Frederick might capture Churchill's capital.
When it comes to Churchill's turn, Frederick's turn will have already ended and thus Frederick will have a new Unit defending his capital, making it harder for Churchill's army to capture Frederick's capital.
So, what we know is that on Churchill's Turn 72 (the previous turn), he wasn't able to complete a build item, but he has put 38 Hammers into a build item--it's possible that he only put in, say, 9 Hammers last turn and put in the 38 - 9 = 27 Hammers on previous turns.
After we play our Turn 73, Frederick will play his Turn 73, then Churchill will play his Turn 73. However much production Churchill makes on Turn 73 will then go into the build item at the end of Churchill's turn, which happens "in between turns" from our perspective. If Churchill completes that build item, the Unit or Building will appear on the map on our Turn 74. If Churchill doesn't complete that build item, the Espionage formula for calculating how many Hammers that Churchill has in a build item might equal, for example, 38 + 9 = 47 Hammers (if he works City Centre, Fish, 2 G Fors, Horse, and Stone) or 38 + 7 = 45 Hammers (if we block his Stone and he works City Centre, Fish, 3 G Fors, and Horse).
Or, if he's building a Settler and we block his Stone, it might equal 38 + 13 = 51 Hammers:
City Centre + Fish + Horse + 3 G Fors - citizens = 2 F + 1 H + 6 F + 2 F + 3 H + 3 * (2 F + 1 H) - 5 * 2 F = 16 F - 10 F + 7 H = 6 F + 7 H = 13 F/H
Or, he might whip that build item, which would mean that the build item would be completed at the end of his Turn 73 and that build item would exist at the start of our Turn 74.
It's also possible that he might abandon his current build item and start on a new build item, in which case we'd probably see 7 Hammers in a build item (assuming that we stand on his Stone)--that case is different from him completing a built item, because if he completes a build item, the Sabotage Production cost will be blank, as he won't have selected his next build item yet--he will just have "overflow Hammers" of a quantity that we cannot determine from the Espionage screen, but which we could calculate if we see what build item he made (say, a new Building appears in York). If we don't see a Building appear, but York went down in population points, we'll at least know that he whipped, making 30 Hammers plus whatever Hammers he earned (say, with 1-pop-whipping away one G For square, that would be 7 - 1 = 6 Hammers), giving him 38 + 30 + 6 = 74 Hammers minus the cost of the build item that he whipped, with the remaining Hammers being the overflow Hammers. Of course, if he 2-pop-whipped a Settler, then it would be 13 F/H - 2 H (for not working two G For squares) = 11 H, giving him 38 + 60 + 11 - 97 (the cost of a Settler) = 109 - 97 = 12 overflow Hammers.
If the Sabotage Production value is blank, the AI would have to "cold whip" (i.e. suffer the whipping penalty) in order to whip a build item, but if the Sabotage Production value has a number in it, then the AI can whip on its turn and that build item will appear on the map on our next turn.
Sorry for being confusing. I'm suggesting that after we attack Lisbon, we'll attack Hatty's Cities and try to capture The Pyramids and The Great Library from her.
Prior to our troops arriving at Hatty, it would be nice to steal at least Mathematics from Hatty and hopefully also Code of Laws. Stealing techs before being at war with Hatty is helpful in terms of getting an extra 20% discount for having a Trade Route in the City that we gift to Hatty which connects to one of our Cities (we may have to Open Borders or Close Borders with another AI on that turn in order to "trigger" the Trade Route calculation--testing is needed here)--i.e. her City must have a Trade Route to one of our Cities in order for us to get that discount, and because we would have to gift her a City prior to declaring war on her (since we can't gift a City while remaining at war). So, there is a need to get a couple of Spies to 3 S of Paris and park them there for several turns, then also get a Settler for that location.
Both Joao and Churchill know Mysticism and Meditation, while Churchill also knows Priesthood, which are techs that we'd want to get or self-tech to be able to steal Code of Laws.
My thinking is something like:
Steal Mathematics from Hatty
Trade Mathematics to Joao for one of Mysticism or Meditation
Get one of Meditation or Mysticism from Churchill for Peace
Self-tech Priesthood
Steal Code of Laws from Hatty
If we need to declare war on Joao before we can trade him Mathematics, then we'll just have to self-tech 2 of those techs.
An alternative to making Peace with Churchill is to stay at war with him and try to hunt for a Worker, but we'd probably only be able to do so if we had a 4-XP Axeman who hadn't taken a Promotion... so, if, say, during the York attack, there is a City Defender who was wounded by one of our Units and is an easy kill (95%+ chance of killing it) with an Axeman who hasn't taken a Promotion yet, we could attack with that Axeman without first taking a Promotion, hoping to get +1 XP so that we could create a Woodsman II Axeman to steal Churchill's Workers.
Well, I'd still like to know exactly where Athens is located and if the gems are in the BFC. Also whether through Greece is a good route to get at Hats with immediacy, but that can indeed wait.
Here's what we could do: send the Scout toward England, but if we can get a Woodsman II Axeman at Churchill, then we could send the Scout back to our mainland and have it explore Greece.
If the battle for York is tough, we likely won't have the luxury of avoiding promoting an Axeman before attacking and thus we won't get a Woodsman II Axeman and then the Scout at England would be of use.
Attacking Hatty via land has the potential issue of her having really deep Cultural Borders that we'd have to march through while she whips troops. Meanwhile, the placement of her City for which we see her Cultural Borders makes it appear to either be coastal or within striking distance of the coast, meaning that our Galleys will likely be of great use against Hatty.
In the test game, London suffers from 3 Motherland Unhappiness at Size 5, which means 1 Unhappy citizen. Assuming that we'll 2-pop-whip a Worker (or a Granary) on the turn after London comes out of City Revolt, that means not being able to work one Coast square worth 1 Food and 2 Commerce for 1 turn.
When London regrows to Size 4, it will still have 4 citizens available to work squares, as we only suffer from 2 Motherland Unhappiness at that City Size.
So, it's not a concern that we really need to worry about.
On the other hand, if we succeed in capturing York, it's very likely that at least one of our mounted units, which will be attacking in the second wave, will survive, and we can heal it (perhaps in a galley) and explore England, looking for a worker to pick off, while rebuilding our army.
If we lose a lot of Units at York, we'll probably need to send every available Military Unit toward Portugal.
If we do earn ourselves a Woodsman II Axeman, it could first garrison London until London has a chance to 2-pop-whip a build item, then optionally garrison York if it's large enough in City Size, then go hunting for Churchill's Workers.
It's hard to totally predict what we should do until we see how the York battle plays out, but if possible, we should try to fill up our 4 Galleys and unload troops at Lisbon as soon as we possibly can. There are a lot of competing build items, so it will be a challenge to make everything fall into place, so we'll just have to do our best to meet each of the competing goals:
i. Completing The Great Lighthouse
ii. Getting 2 Spies and a Settler for stealing Mathematics (2 Spies gives us a backup chance in case our first Spy fails)
iii. Building Granaries
iv. Rebuilding our army
Joao would be willing to Reopen Borders based on a random number dice roll.
CANCELLED_OPEN_BORDERS in the XML = 10 for every AI
Every turn, a number between 0 and 9 will be picked randomly.
If the number is 0, he'll be willing to Open Borders us with again.
On average, that might be 10 turns from now, but it could be sooner or later.
Yes, but the test game is a bit messed up because I rebuilt York via the World Builder this turn, so I had no way for Churchill to already put some Hammers in a build item. I.e. On the "Ctrl + e" Espionage screen, he has a blank Sabotage Production value, which doesn't match with the real game, leading to a slightly different set of possibilities of what Churchill could build over the next couple of turns. So far, I have seen him build a Swordsman, a Barracks, and a Chariot. I won against the Swordsman and against the Chariot in a couple of attempts, but had to use almost every Unit and sometimes every Unit.
So, we need to make sure not to unload Axeman 3 (Axeman 1 in the test game) from our Galley when we Unload Chariot 2 inside of London on Turn 73, so that the Axeman can unload from the Galley on the G For Road that is 1 SE of York on Turn 74--it can act as our "see what's inside of York" Unit. I.e. We'd want to individually select Chariot 2 and click on the Unload icon, instead of using the Galley's "Unload All" icon.
Dhooomstriker said:
3. Horse Archer 3 unloads in London (giving us the option of attacking a baited unit next turn or else moving to 1 SE of York next turn)
Again, why does he have to unload to be able to attack next turn? If we keep him aboard and our axe spots trouble in York, then we might want to use him to capture a worker.
We're on Turn 73 right now. In the real game, Horse Archer 3 is on Galley 2 and Horse Archer has 0 movement points remaining to it.
In order to Horse Archer 3 to be able to attack from land or capture a Worker, he needs to unload from Galley 2 inside of London on either Turn 73 or Turn 74. I am suggesting doing it on Turn 73 for two reasons:
a) So that we remember to send Galley 2 into London on Turn 73
b) So that we don't forget to unload Horse Archer 3 on Turn 74
Either way will work (unloading Horse Archer 3 in London on either Turn 73 or Turn 74), since Horse Archer 3 has 0 movement points remaining on Turn 73, but we might as well do it on Turn 73 since we can.
Horse Archer 3 can also get to the G For Road that is 1 SE of York from London within the span of 1 turn (i.e. on Turn 74). If Churchill manages to have a Chariot built at the start of our Turn 74 (unlikely, but theoretically possible with a cold-whipping action), then we'd want to move our Horse Archer 3 to 1 E of York to block his Chariot from attacking London.
As for capturing a Worker, please don't. Doing so could cost us a loss at the battle of York. The fight for York is really tight.
Earning one City, City Capture Gold, a possible Granary, a possible Lighthouse, likely more than 1 population point, the ability to work the Horse and Stone in London, and the ability to stop Churchill from spamming Units from York by capturing York is far better than 1 Worker. If we capture York, our first build item could be whipping a Worker if we wanted, getting us both York and a Worker.
I don't see us capturing a Worker in the short term, so maybe instead of building a Granary in London, it could be better to 2-pop-whip a Worker out of London, Chop into a Granary, and then 1-pop-whip the Granary.
Could we maybe have Worker 3 do so instead? Something like:
Worker 3:
i. Chop the GH For into Orleans' Granary
ii. Move 1 N G (1 SE of Orleans) and build a Road
iii. Move along the Road to 1 SW of Orleans and build a Road
iv. Move to the GH that is shared between Paris and Orleans and build a GH Mine
It would be nice for Worker 1 to start building some sort of improvements around Paris with us soon getting our Great Scientist and thus no longer needing to hire Specialists there, be it G Riv Cottages or finishing off the G Riv Farm at 1 SW of Paris. It is also good to keep a Worker in that area, as we'll soon get our G Stone within our Cultural Borders (once The Great Lighthouse gets completed on Turn 76), which would be nice to Quarry for the extra Hammers in XO Cognac.
The Spy was created so that it could try to steal Mathematics from Egypt in a City built 3 S of Paris. Stealing a tech at that location gives us a significant discount (up to a 50% City Culture discount) and carries with it only a small distance penalty (3%), meaning that a Spy without any Stationary Bonus only has to pay 56 EPs to steal Mysticism.
If we place a Spy inside of Thebes in the test game, the distance penalty goes up to 15% and there is no 50% City Culture discount, meaning that a Spy without any Stationary Bonus has to pay 127 EPs to steal Mysticism.
Mysticism costs us 74 Flasks to self-tech.
It should be self-evident that paying 127 EPs to earn 74 Flasks is not to our advantage.
There is also up to a 50% Stationary Bonus that can bring those costs down, but we also have to factor in the travel time to get to an Egyptian core City from Paris every time that a Spy wants to try to steal a tech, since successful Spies get returned to Paris. Having a City close to Paris means our surviving Spies being able to get the next tech with the full Stationary Bonus only 7 turns later.
We had some really terrible luck with our Spy at London--I had to load the test game more than 35 times just to get the same result of failing the Espionage Mission and getting -1 Diplo Attitude from Churchill.
What I'm finding really annoying is that Hatty's Creative bonus very quickly eats away at our City Culture discount. Our Paris Academy will help out in putting more Culture into the gift City, but we're definitely going to get the best discounts on techs which we steal soon after gifting the City to Hatty. So, we really need to be earning as many EPs against Hatty as we can now, to get the most benefit out of stealing soon.
It might not be practical to wait to declare war on Joao before we steal Mathematics and can trade it to him, depending upon how many Military Units survive at York.
There are also the competing goals of:
i. Wanting Mathematics soon, so that we'll get a bonus on self-teching Currency
ii. Earning as many EPs as we can collect against Hatty in the short term to be able to steal more techs soon
iii. Wanting to gift a City to Hatty before she settles her 4th City so that she'll accept gifted Cities without paying attention to the distance of those Cities to her nearest City
iv. The sooner that we gift a City to Hatty, the sooner that we can start stealing techs from her
v. The sooner that we gift a City to Hatty, the sooner that our City Culture discount will start to shrink due to her Creative Trait putting Culture into the gifted City
Later, we can spread Christianity to the gift City (assuming that we make that Religion our State Religion) for an additional 15% discount on Espionage Missions.
Also, later, if we get a reasonably-large stack of Spies who keep going between Paris and the gifted City of Hatty's, we can use the Spread Culture Espionage Mission repeatedly to return part of the City Culture discount to us.
Assuming that we might try to win this game (as we need a Victory Condition) via a Cultural Victory that is enabled via Espionage, then that City could easily be one of our 3 Legendary Cities.
EDIT: I forgot to mention that if we devote a Military Unit to exploring the rest of England, it will probably be safer to use an Axeman, who can defend against any Melee Unit of Churchill's that it runs across, whereas a Chariot would be on the losing end of any defensive fight against a Melee Unit of Churchill's that it runs across, especially when exploring the Forested area, where we'll only have 1 movement point per turn and thus can't run away from a Unit that we see.
On Churchill's Turn 72, he already earned 38 Hammers in a build item. On Churchill's Turn 73, assuming that he makes 7 base Hammers from us standing on his Stone, if he is building City Walls right now, he will complete the City Walls and would have some Hammers overflowing. Got it. Sorry you had to write an essay.
Sorry for being confusing. I'm suggesting that after we attack Lisbon, we'll attack Hatty's Cities and try to capture The Pyramids and The Great Library from her. Understood. Would we want to do so even if she has Feudalism or would we be better to wait until we have Construction?
so, if, say, during the York attack, there is a City Defender who was wounded by one of our Units and is an easy kill (95%+ chance of killing it) with an Axeman who hasn't taken a Promotion yet, we could attack with that Axeman without first taking a Promotion, hoping to get +1 XP so that we could create a Woodsman II Axeman to steal Churchill's Workers. Follow that. BTW, you have advocated taking a Combat 1 promotion (10%) for our axes in attacking London amphibiously. Don't really understand that. Seems like a CR promotion (20%) would clearly be more powerful in attacking York.
Here's what we could do: send the Scout toward England, but if we can get a Woodsman II Axeman at Churchill, then we could send the Scout back to our mainland and have it explore Greece. Good enough.
Attacking Hatty via land has the potential issue of her having really deep Cultural Borders that we'd have to march through while she whips troops. Meanwhile, the placement of her City for which we see her Cultural Borders makes it appear to either be coastal or within striking distance of the coast, meaning that our Galleys will likely be of great use against Hatty. Yes, of course. I was not anticipating a land route from Greece to Egypt. I'm interested in exploring the option to attack quickly (via galley) from both or either of two directions, depending on city location, unit location, and strategic resource location (for ease of pillaging).
If we lose a lot of Units at York, we'll probably need to send every available Military Unit toward Portugal. With whom we will have just closed borders, so we can't know what we'll be up against. What about either not closing borders with Joao or taking Hamburg next, allowing time to trade Math from Joao and get OB again?
It's hard to totally predict what we should do until we see how the York battle plays out, Concur. Let's take York and then discuss going forward.
Joao would be willing to Reopen Borders based on a random number dice roll.
CANCELLED_OPEN_BORDERS in the XML = 10 for every AI
Every turn, a number between 0 and 9 will be picked randomly.
If the number is 0, he'll be willing to Open Borders us with again.
On average, that might be 10 turns from now, but it could be sooner or later. Thanks. Did not understand that.
Yes, I won against the Swordsman and against the Chariot in a couple of attempts, but had to use almost every Unit and sometimes every Unit. Not surprised.
So, we need to make sure not to unload Axeman 3 (Axeman 1 in the test game) from our Galley when we Unload Chariot 2 inside of London on Turn 73, so that the Axeman can unload from the Galley on the G For Road that is 1 SE of York on Turn 74--it can act as our "see what's inside of York" Unit. I.e. We'd want to individually select Chariot 2 and click on the Unload icon, instead of using the Galley's "Unload All" icon. Safer to just click on the chariot and then on London.
We're on Turn 73 right now. In the real game, Horse Archer 3 is on Galley 2 and Horse Archer has 0 movement points remaining to it.
In order to Horse Archer 3 to be able to attack from land or capture a Worker, he needs to unload from Galley 2 inside of London on either Turn 73 or Turn 74. I am suggesting doing it on Turn 73 for two reasons:
a) So that we remember to send Galley 2 into London on Turn 73
b) So that we don't forget to unload Horse Archer 3 on Turn 74 Sometimes you come across as a bit patronizing, Dhoom, but your thoroughness is appreciated.
Horse Archer 3 can also get to the G For Road that is 1 SE of York from London within the span of 1 turn (i.e. on Turn 74). If Churchill manages to have a Chariot built at the start of our Turn 74 (unlikely, but theoretically possible with a cold-whipping action), then we'd want to move our Horse Archer 3 to 1 E of York to block his Chariot from attacking London. I would pause the game after our axe saw the chariot.
As for capturing a Worker, please don't. Doing so could cost us a loss at the battle of York. The fight for York is really tight. Yes, capturing a worker would only make sense if capturing York quickly seems unlikely or we get it done with limited losses and then see an easy target.
I don't see us capturing a Worker in the short term, so maybe instead of building a Granary in London, it could be better to 2-pop-whip a Worker out of London, Chop into a Granary, and then 1-pop-whip the Granary. London has a religion and will therefore expand in just 5 turns once out of anarchy. All that whipping will prevent us from working the 4 power tiles. Makes better sense for York to whip.
Could we maybe have Worker 3 do so instead? Something like:
Worker 3:
i. Chop the GH For into Orleans' Granary
ii. Move 1 N G (1 SE of Orleans) and build a Road
iii. Move along the Road to 1 SW of Orleans and build a Road
iv. Move to the GH that is shared between Paris and Orleans and build a GH Mine Fine with that.
It would be nice for Worker 1 to start building some sort of improvements around Paris with us soon getting our Great Scientist and thus no longer needing to hire Specialists there, be it G Riv Cottages or finishing off the G Riv Farm at 1 SW of Paris. It is also good to keep a Worker in that area, as we'll soon get our G Stone within our Cultural Borders (once The Great Lighthouse gets completed on Turn 76), which would be nice to Quarry for the extra Hammers in XO Cognac. Okay, I'd opt for completing the farm.
Assuming that we might try to win this game (as we need a Victory Condition) via a Cultural Victory that is enabled via Espionage, then that City could easily be one of our 3 Legendary Cities.
Well, she doesn't have Feudalism yet, but at the rate that she is researching techs, she'll likely have it before we arrive on her shores. Maybe she won't have had it long enough for her to have upgraded all of her Archers to Longbowmen, though, and even if she has upgraded them all, they may not have their full Fortification bonuses when we arrive.
Even if we just take one of her two Wonder Cities then call a Cease Fire, we'll have set ourselves up nicely to take her other Wonder City.
If we don't go after her, she might already have Musketmen, Knights, or even Riflemen by the time that we do get around to going after her.
There is certainly an argument for trying to get her up to Friendly status, but the easiest way to do so would be to capture some of her Cities and then play around with Liberating gift Cities to her, then also being able to convert to her State Religion due to having captured at least one of her Cities with Islam in it.
We might need another Galley or two if she gets up to Feudalism, but I think that it will be worth getting our navy ready to strike at her.
advocated taking a Combat 1 promotion (10%) for our axes in attacking London amphibiously. Don't really understand that. Seems like a CR promotion (20%) would clearly be more powerful in attacking York.
Open up Folket's "Test-SG23 HatAlexB BC-1080.CivBeyondSwordSave" test saved game from before the war.
Declare war on Churchill, sail the Galley with 2 Axemen aboard it to 1 SE of London, then Promote one Axeman to City Raider I and one Axeman to Combat I.
Select an Axeman, position your mouse cursor over top of London, and hold down the Alt key.
For the City Raider I Axeman, our survival odds are 1.86%
For the Combat I Axeman, our survival odds are 2.06%
Combat Promotions boost the Strength of the attacker. So, our Axeman fights with an extra 5 * 0.1 = an extra 0.5 Strength.
City Raider Promotions reduce the Strength of the defender. So, the defending City Defence II Archer goes down from 9.15 Strength (including other bonuses) to 8.55 Strength, while our Axeman fights at 5.0 Strength.
If I World-Build a scenario similar to York, where the City has a 20% Cultural Defence, there is a Hills square, the Archer just has the free Promotions that a Protective Leader has (City Defence I and Drill I), and I World-Build myself a Combat I Axeman and a City Raider I Axeman on land, I get these odds:
City Raider I Axeman: our survival odds are 6.64%
Combat I Axeman: our survival odds are 7.01%
Now, we should be leading with our Horse Archer 3 against the defenders, so assuming that the Archer is wounded when it comes time for our Axemen to attack, we have these odds for a 0.8/3 Health Archer:
No Promotion Axeman (hoping for Woodsman II): our survival odds are 99.41%
City Raider I Axeman: our survival odds are 99.58%
Combat I Axeman: our survival odds are 99.60%
If the City Defender in York happens to be an Axeman with full Health with no Promotion, then the odds change in favour of City Raider:
City Raider I Axeman: our survival odds are 9.94%
Combat I Axeman: our survival odds are 9.10%
Overall, I'd advocate taking the Combat Promotions, since Combat Promotions sometimes come out ahead and when they don't come out ahead, they don't tend to fall behind by too much. Combat Promotions will also be of use when we land our troops at Joao, since he has Iron and our Axemen would likely be our stack defenders against Joao's Swordsmen or Axemen.
That said, if we get a chance to earn a Promotion on an easy battle with our Axeman without first having to first spend a Promotion, we'd then be able to use both Promotions on Woodsman II. But, treat this idea as an opportunistic one that may not present itself.
With whom we will have just closed borders, so we can't know what we'll be up against. What about either not closing borders with Joao or taking Hamburg next, allowing time to trade Math from Joao and get OB again?
Your concern is valid. I'm extremely hesitant to keep Open Borders with Joao, since his primary value is that he has met Hatty but hasn't met many other AIs, so he is going to be generally willing to trade us techs that both he and Hatty learn, but that situation won't be true if he meets more AIs.
One option could be to try to fill 5 Galleys before going after Joao.
Another option could be to send our first Spy to Lisbon, spend a few EPs on Joao, then perform the Counter-Espionage Mission when we're ready to send our Spy home, as that Mission has a 100% chance of success, doesn't cost a lot of EPs, and would teleport our Spy back to Paris. Doing so would delay when we'd be stealing techs from Hatty, but that knowledge of what Lisbon contains right before we attack might be worth the delay.
Capturing Hamburg could be a third valid option. With Stalin having so many Cities, it's feasible that he'd have a Happiness Resource to trade to us, although he might not get to hook them up until he learns Mathematics + Calendar, unless he has Gold, Silver, Gems, or Ivory.
Note that Closing Borders with Joao won't prevent us from trading techs with Joao.
Since this game is ultimately a teching game, I would suggest putting a pretty high priority on keeping Joao isolated, which means Closing Borders with him on Turn 73.
Depending upon where the Galley is located, what you described could be different. If, for example, our Galley is 1 SE of London and we do what you just described, our Chariot 2 would lose all of his movement points on Turn 73, which would mean that our Chariot 2 could not act as bait.
One way to accomplish the unloading of Chariot 2 so that it still has movement points on Turn 73 would be to move the Galley into London, select Chariot 2, and then click on the Unload icon.
Another way to unload Chariot 2 so that it still has movement points on Turn 73 would be to move the Galley into London, select Chariot 2, and then move Chariot 2 to 1 W G For Road (1 E of the Stone), which will both unload Chariot 2 and move it one square in the direction that we want to move it.
You can also try to move it directly to the Stone, but a Unit which has to unload will only unload and move 1 square in the direction that you sent it, so then you'd have to re-select Chariot 2 and move it onto the Stone a second time.
Rest assurred that I do not feel that way, even though communication is two-way and I respect that others may feel differently in some instances and also have the right to feel differently than the way that a message was intended to be communicated. How a message was received is just as important as the intended way of communicating it.
One point should be noted with communication from me, though: if I were to feel patronizing toward someone, I would likely simply not respond to that person at all. I cannot recall one instance of feeling patronizing toward others on this forum, although I do acknowledge and fully respect that overly-wordy explanations and extra-cautious explanations for cases that might not even apply can certainly be interpreted that way; please try not to interpret my messages that way, though, as like I said, if I didn't feel that someone was worth my time, my approach would be not to respond at all.
It's hard to know what a given individual will know or recall about the possibilities for a given situation, and sometimes a reader, be it another teammate, a lurker, or a future reader of our thread, may benefit from the extra explanation. At least, that's my intent and hope.
Fine by me. Whipping a Granary in London works well, as then we very quickly make use of the extra Food to fill our Granary and hit Size 4 again right around the time that our Cultural Borders expand.
Got it. We might as well put in a partial turn of Cottaging on the way to the Farm square for free.
Also, I noticed a key element of the micro that Folket figured out for us: we can get The Great Lighthouse a turn early on Turn 75 if we delay Worker 1's Forest Chop by 1 turn. We could first put in a partial Cottage turn to delay the Chop, stop what our worker is doing, then Chop on Turns 74 and 75 to finish off the Chop.
It also means whipping the Spy on Turn 74 instead of on Turn 75.
If Churchill's Axeman takes our bait and we lose but Churchill's Axeman is badly wounded, we could consider having Horse Archer 3 promote to Combat I then attack for +1 XP, giving us a second Promotion (Combat II). But, if it's not a really easy fight (i.e. if we don't have greater than 98% odds with our Horse Archer 3), leave the first attack to Chariot 1, since Chariot 1 would get the extra 100% attack bonus against the Axeman, and we really want to keep Horse Archer 3 alive for the battle of York, since our Horse Archers are still our best City attackers.
Well, she doesn't have Feudalism yet, but at the rate that she is researching techs, she'll likely have it before we arrive on her shores. Maybe she won't have had it long enough for her to have upgraded all of her Archers to Longbowmen, though, and even if she has upgraded them all, they may not have their full Fortification bonuses when we arrive. Sounds a bit optimistic.
Even if we just take one of her two Wonder Cities then call a Cease Fire, we'll have set ourselves up nicely to take her other Wonder City.
If we don't go after her, she might already have Musketmen, Knights, or even Riflemen by the time that we do get around to going after her. No argument about the wisdom of going after her as soon as we have a good chance to succeed.
Open
Spoiler:
Seeing is believing. Very educational. Couple of follow-up questions: How does CR2 compare with Combat2 for city attacks? Does Combat 1 also work out to be your general choice over CR1 when a swordsman is doing the attacking?
If the City Defender in York happens to be an Axeman (which is what I'm anticipating) with full Health with no Promotion (maybe Commbat1), then the odds change in favour of City Raider:
City Raider I Axeman: our survival odds are 9.94%
Combat I Axeman: our survival odds are 9.10%
Overall, I'd advocate taking the Combat Promotions, since Combat Promotions sometimes come out ahead and when they don't come out ahead, they don't tend to fall behind by too much. Combat Promotions will also be of use when we land our troops at Joao, since he has Iron and our Axemen would likely be our stack defenders against Joao's Swordsmen or Axemen. Hadn't considered that. If we end up with a surviving Combat1 axe, wouldn't we promote it to Shock for a landing near Lisbon?
That said, if we get a chance to earn a Promotion on an easy battle with our Axeman without first having to first spend a Promotion, we'd then be able to use both Promotions on Woodsman II. But, treat this idea as an opportunistic one that may not present itself. Follow this.
Another option could be to send our first Spy to Lisbon, spend a few EPs on Joao, then perform the Counter-Espionage Mission when we're ready to send our Spy home, as that Mission has a 100% chance of success, doesn't cost a lot of EPs, and would teleport our Spy back to Paris. Doing so would delay when we'd be stealing techs from Hatty, but that knowledge of what Lisbon contains right before we attack might be worth the delay. Concur.
Capturing Hamburg could be a third valid option. Like to consider it after York.
Since this game is ultimately a teching game, I would suggest putting a pretty high priority on keeping Joao isolated, which means Closing Borders with him on Turn 73. Will do so somewhat reluctantly.
Depending upon where the Galley is located, what you described could be different. Sorry, miswrote. This is what I meant:
Another way to unload Chariot 2 so that it still has movement points on Turn 73 would be to move the Galley into London, select Chariot 2, and then move Chariot 2 to 1 W G For Road (1 E of the Stone), which will both unload Chariot 2 and move it one square in the direction that we want to move it.
Rest assurred that I do not feel that way,Understand -- given in the spirit of useful (for team bonding) feedback.
Got it. We might as well put in a partial turn of Cottaging on the way to the Farm square for free. Check.
I'll update the PPP. Time taken to do that is much appreciated.
Yes, it must feel annoying to have your seemingly favourite Victory Condition (Domination) being disabled. More concerned that builders think warring is more difficult, problematic, and time consuming than it usually is, but biggest attraction of playing SGOTM is learning different strategies.
If Churchill's Axeman takes our bait and we lose but Churchill's Axeman is badly wounded, we could consider having Horse Archer 3 promote to Combat I then attack for +1 XP, giving us a second Promotion (Combat II). But, if it's not a really easy fight (i.e. if we don't have greater than 98% odds with our Horse Archer 3), leave the first attack to Chariot 1, since Chariot 1 would get the extra 100% attack bonus against the Axeman, and we really want to keep Horse Archer 3 alive for the battle of York, since our Horse Archers are still our best City attackers.
RL caused delays, but here is report on successful capture of York (T73-75):
T73: Execute plan (J's scouts both transported south of our borders)
IBT: Our chariot on stone tempts and defeats English axe (must have been leif's Haka); Fred's axe advances on Orleans
T74:
Move warrior into Orleans
Unload axe and find only 1 archer defending York
Move victorious chariot onto horses and find English worker on furs
Promote chariot (to 2.7) and move him onto forest NE of York (to make sure there are no surprises coming from the northern forest)
Capture worker with wounded chariot from London (not needed with just max 2 defenders)
Leave empty galley 2 in London to facilitate possible future movement of units to Orleans
Advance remaining units as planned
IBT: York builds chariot; Fred's axe advances to Orleans; German settler stack appears 4E of Orleans; can sign OB with Stalin
T75: Capture an infrastructureless York with loss of 2 axes and a HA; get the non-promoted axe win (so doubt we need the scout in England); pause game
Would suggest sailing HA and scout into London and chaining them towards Orleans
It's hard to believe what we managed with our rag-tag army, but what we've earned has been greater than the costs that we paid!
No Buildings were captured, but we scored ourselves a nice Size-4 City and defeated an Axeman, a Chariot, and an Archer at the cost of 1 Horse Archer and 2 Axemen.
Cactus Pete also snagged us Churchill's Worker.
Our army now consists of:
4 Galleys
1 Horse Archer
1 Axeman (with 2 Promotions available to him)
3 Chariots
Frederick is threatening Orleans with a Combat I Axeman, while Orleans is defended by a Chariot and a Warrior.
We shouldn't take a Peace Treaty with Frederick if we want to keep fighting with him, but Frederick will accept a Cease Fire.
Frederick also has a Settler Party which currently consists solely of Axemen, which are vulnerable to Chariots attacking them as long as an Archer doesn't join them.
Spoiler:
We've also stagnated on our Research.
On that end, we can do something like:
Paris switches Copper + Fur -> 2 Sci to get our Great Scientist next turn
XO Cognac steals the Copper instead of the Fish, growing in 2 turns instead of in 1 turn, since 1 Unhappiness will wear off in 2 turns
One valid option is to forget about stealing Mathematics in the short term, get our Academy, and switch to 100% Research until we learn Currency.
Currency could probably net us Mysticism or Meditation from Joao, then net us Monarchy from Hatty (if she doesn't self-tech Currency herself) after we've self-teched Priesthood. Monarchy would definitely assist us with our Happiness issues, both for +1 Happiness from a Military Police Unit and +1 Happiness from Wine.
Going this way seems more practical than trying to set up a tech steal of Mathematics in the short term.
But, in the medium term, we still want to target stealing Mathematics and Code of Laws from Hatty, so that we can begin research on Civil Service right after that.
We haven't seen Ragnar show up on our doorstep, so I would see the exploration of Scandinavia (that landmass to the north of Hamburg) being far more interesting than exploring around Greece, where Alex doesn't seem to have space to expand to a second City, seeing as how its Turn 75 and he hasn't even settled a second City.
So, with our boats going after Germany, I'd suggest sending the Scout to the spot where we spotted a Wolf on Turn 14 to the north of Hamburg.
Stalin is expanding like a beast, and if there isn't a Viking AI, there won't be anyone to hold him off from expanding toward Finland and beyond.
Plus, with our navy already going to the east, we might even want to consider a brief war with Stalin to snipe any nearby coastal Cities of his--we have already seen that he's close to Germany due to the Cultural Borders of The Great Wall.
With Frederick remaining at war with Alex (that's the beauty of neither of them having Alphabet or Currency--it's hard for them to settle for peace), we can position our Units to take on Hamburg and the City that Frederick is likely going to settle where he's been settling it in the test game--1 S of the Sheep, to get Fish in his big fat cross (in a non-coastal City ), with Frederick hopefully sending the bulk of his forces toward Alex, at least momentarily.
By Cease Firing now, we'll lose the ability to immediately Cease Fire after capturing Hamburg, so we're likely going to need to plan to capture and defend the City instead of just capture and then Cease Fire.
By Cease Firing, Alex may ask us to rejoin the war, but we'll probably just turn him down so that we can plan the timing of our next war declaration on Frederick, as Alex has proven to be a relatively useless tech-trading partner due to him unpredictably being unable to expand his empire.
For now, Joao and Hatty can live, hopefully feeding us the techs that we want in the short term until we've sufficiently dealt with Frederick and possibly a couple of Cities of Stalin's, after which time London and York should be fully productive and helping us to pump out more troops, and possibly even a second navy, if we go for Stalin in the east.
After we learn Currency and have made progress in the fighting against Germany, we can set ourselves up for trying to steal something like 6 techs from Hatty, getting the City Culture discount on most of the tech thefts instead of just on the first 1 or 2 tech thefts.
We've already stolen Churchill's Worker, but he probably has at least one more to the north, which hooked up his Iron, so our Axeman can promote to Woodsman II and go exploring northward at England.
While we're running Monarchy, we won't really be missing out on not having The Pyramids, as our empire isn't yet in a state to be hiring Specialists. We also slowed our potential early REX in favour of getting our own Academy, so delaying the stealing of The Great Library's Academy also isn't the end of the world. It all may work out for us in the end if we can steal a boatload of techs from Hatty while also making progress with our armies to the east through Germany and possibly part of Russia, as we know that we'll need that land for our Railroad.
Lyons, now that it has whipped its Granary, is probably best used for 1-pop-whipping Chariots, since the City can't grow fast enough to whip out a lot of Horse Archers.
A combination of Horse Archers, Chariots, and 1 or 2 stack-defending Axemen is probably the most suitable army to use against Frederick. If necessary, a Chariot can bait a Spearman to leave a City that we want to capture, while our Horse Archers wound the defenders and our Chariots can opportunistically clean up lone Axemen or wounded Axemen with our Chariots' intrinsic bonus when attacking Axemen. Our own Axemen then act to defend our troops from any Spearmen that might try to retake a City that we capture.
I'm not entirely sold on the idea of building a Granary in York--it might be better to just 2-pop-whip a Worker there, Chop plus 1-pop-whip another Worker, then clear-cut the City while whipping out Military Units.
Owning the City in the short-term will give us a second 2-Commerce Trade Route in each of our mainland Cities. If it turns out to be a City that we'd keep, we can build a Granary later with help from the Stone and Horse Resources or with 1 saved Forest that we didn't Chop if we find that there aren't 2 better City locations in northern England.
Presumably, our Axeman can move to London to temporarily act as its City Defender, with a Chariot temporarily acting as the City Defender for York. London can 2-pop-whip a Granary and then complete an Archer via a Chop, to allow our Axeman to freely explore the north of England.
Once York has been whipped down to Size 2, we won't need the Chariot there and it can board a boat to join the war against Germany.
One approach that we could probably switch to is mini-turnsets where we don't wait several days to get them played.
It's easy enough to plan out the current turn and most of the next 2 turns without a test game, so if we go with that approach, we can abandon updating our test game, plan out the details for a couple of turns at a time, go ahead and play them, then reassess the new situation before developing another roughly 2.5-turn PPP.
It's a lot easier to spot minor efficiencies that we can make with multiple eyes looking at the game every couple of turns. We do need to find a new approach to move the game forward and planning out 5+ turns at a time is becoming burdensome with our every-growing empire.
It would then be up to the Active Player if that person wanted to play multiple mini-turnsets or wanted to hand off after finishing any given mini-turnset.
Jersey Joe, you're planning on playing next, right?
In looking at the real game, there are a lot of Coast squares where there should be Ocean squares; we'd noticed that fact before, but I didn't realise just how many there were... we could unload our Horse Archer and sail north-east with our Scout into what normally would be deep Ocean, exploring with both the Galley and Scout before arriving near the "T14 Wolf" sign area and being able to land so that our Scout can keep exploring, to see the limits of Russia's empire.
Cactus Pete said:
How does CR2 compare with Combat2 for city attacks? Does Combat 1 also work out to be your general choice over CR1 when a swordsman is doing the attacking?
There was a general rule mentioned somewhere on the forums about the amount of defensive bonuses that the defender has determining which Promotion is better, but I forget how it went.
But, one thing that can be seen from the use of Trebuchets is that high amounts of a City Raider bonus can work well.
The Combat Promotion will make more of a difference for a Unit that has a higher base Strength.
I.e. Combat I on a Spearman gives an extra 0.4 Strength, while Combat I on a Swordsman gives an extra 0.6 Strength.
Meanwhile, City Raider I on either Unit will reduce the defender's Strength by the same amount. For example, if Berlin has a City Defence I Archer and no Melee Units, then its modified Strength will be 7.05 whether we have +30% City Raider on a Spearman, an Axeman, or a Swordsman (I gave City Raider I to the Swordsman and I gave City Raider III to the Axeman and the Spearman so that they'd each get +30% City Raider).
The Strengths and odds for those Units are:
Spearman 4 Str vs 7.05 Str, 2.02%
Axeman 5 Str vs 7.05 Str, 8.84%
Swordsman 6 Str vs 7.05 Str, 22.84%
If we also give each Unit Combat II:
Spearman 4.4 Str vs 7.05 Str, 2.94%
Axeman 5.5 Str vs 7.05 Str, 18.85%
Swordsman 6.6 Str vs 7.05 Str, 27.90%
If we instead also give each Unit City Raider II:
Spearman 4 Str vs 6.30 Str, 3.12%
Axeman 5 Str vs 7.05 Str, 19.58%
Swordsman 6 Str vs 7.05 Str, 28.79%
Rather than looking at the "survival odds," which aren't that much different, I guess that it really comes down to more of a matter of whether you can change the number of "hits" required to win or lose a fight with a given Promotion, otherwise the differences are relatively minimal. They call that altering of the "hits" by the term "meeting the next breakpoint," aka getting enough additional Strength for your Unit or reducing the defender's Strength sufficiently to the point that either we need less successful hits against the enemy to win the fight or the defender needs more successful hits against us to kill our Unit.
You can either use a test game or some mathematical equations (I've heard talk of a "combat calculator" somewhere on the forums for which you might want to search that would perform the mathematical equations for you after you've typed in some numbers) to get the answers. Or, pick a general rule to use.
My personal general rule is that I've rarely regretted having a Combat Promotion, but I have regretted losing City Raider Units in counter-attacks many times, mostly when I lacked enough stack defenders to prevent the City Raider Units from being picked as the defenders in combats. So, if you have a large army, diversify your Promotions so that you can have the Combat-promoted Units defending your stack and can also sometimes meet the next breakpoint via other Promotions (Shock, Cover, City Raider, etc). If you have a relatively small army, stick to the Combat Promotions, allowing each Unit to do double-duty on both offense and defence.
"By Cease Firing now, we'll lose the ability to immediately Cease Fire after capturing Hamburg, so we're likely going to need to plan to capture and defend the City instead of just capture and then Cease Fire." So, why get a cease fire now before we even know what's defending Hamburg?
I can play some more turns during the next five days (before leaving) if others besides Joe don't step up, then he can take over while I'm gone.
Like the short-term planning concept.
Don't understand why our double-promotable axe can't start exploring England rather than MPing as soon as it heals (one turn, I think, if it stays in place).
We won't have favourable odds against Germany's Combat I Axeman unless we throw away 80 Gold to lose our Warrior upgraded to an Axeman (based on the odds), only to be able to counter-attack on the following turn with our Chariot, and then be down 1 City Defender and out 80 Gold.
80 Gold is a lot at this point, as we don't have Currency and there aren't a lot of easy ways to make Gold with our Happiness being so limited and our Forests having already been put to good use. 80 Gold post-Great-Lighthouse represents 80 Gold spent on Research / 14 Gold per turn spent at 100% Research + 80 Gold earned at a 100% Gold Rate / 30 Gold earned each turn = 5.7 + 2.7 = 8.4 ... more than 8 turns worth of our Research. Later, once Gold becomes more plentiful, it won't be so painful to spend Gold, as we'll be able to stay at a 100% Science Rate or a 100% Espionage Rate without having to take the time to earn more Gold, but pre-Currency, it's a very expensive proposition.
The other alternative is to very likely lose our Chariot on defence, rush to get our Horse Archer into Orleans, then put the Horse Archer in serious danger of also being lost.
Since the Axeman is Combat I, it has more than 79% odds of winning and would gain 2 XP for its second Promotion, likely continuing up the Combat line with Combat II. If it wins with no damage, it would then have 6 Strength and would have 50-50 odds of also killing our Horse Archer.
The Axeman could kill both of our Units and leave us still having to face the choice of upgrading our Warrior or Cease Firing--except that Cease Firing would be off of the table at that point and we'd be forced into a Peace Treaty, due to Frederick's War Success increasing from winning those battles, while our War Success was only barely high enough to earn a Cease Fire since we've accumulated a lot of Power.
Basically, he's gotten the upper hand on us by 1 turn, with a Cease Fire looking like the most reasonable choice. We won't make any headway against Frederick if we have to first take a 10-turn Peace Treaty.
Don't understand why our double-promotable axe can't start exploring England rather than MPing as soon as it heals (one turn, I think, if it stays in place).
Sure, we could do that, with a Chariot sitting on a Galley inside of London acting as our Military Police Unit. Let's be vigilant for Churchill's Galleys, though, so that they don't recapture London when there's no one defending it (Units aboard of a Galley will not defend the City in BtS).
Another thought is that with The Great Lighthouse coming even sooner than expected, due to the extra Culture, we can start Quarrying our G Stone in 2 turns' time. So, Worker 1 could move 1 NW G (1 N of our Horse) and partial Road, then move to the G Stone and immediately start Quarrying.
It's a lot harder to plan things out without a test game, so hopefully I didn't miss anything important.
One thing that could mess us up is if Churchill has a Galley somewhere, so if we spot such a Galley, please stop play so that we can deal with it properly. In BtS, Units can be aboard a Galley but the game won't tell you--in Vanilla, you can see whether Units are on a boat or not. So, assume that any Galley that we spot has 2 Military Units aboard it.
Suggested PPP
Diplo Policy
Christianity? No
Stop trading with another AI? No
Give a Resource? Yes (There isn't an enforced 10 turns of Peace for saying yes)
Peace deal or Open Borders? No--we should be the ones to decide when these deals happen
Give Horseback Riding? No
Give a Tech other than Horseback Riding? No to Frederick (since we'll be attacking him soon), yes to anyone else
Join a war? No
Reasons for stopping
We spot a Galley of Churchill's
We meet a new AI
One of our Cities is threatened
Something in the plan sounds wrong
Turn 75, 1000 BC
Ask Alex to attack Berlin
Trade Cease Fire with Frederick for Cease Fire
Check for Resource-trading opportunities with Stalin
Cities EDIT: Paris builds an Axeman instead of a Horse Archer (otherwise the Axeman will be delayed)
Paris switches Fur and Copper -> 2 Sci
Paris works: Wheat, Fur, 2 Sci, and 1 Unhappy face
XO Cognac switches Fish -> Copper
XO Cognac works: Cow, Horse, and Copper
York switches to building a Worker
Units
Spy 2 moves southward (toward Lisbon)
Galley 1 moves into London
Scout (on Galley 1) loads into Galley 2
Galley 2, with Scout aboard, sails two squares north-east into the Coastal "ocean"
Stop play if we spot a Galley of Churchill's
Galley 3 moves into London
Galley 4 moves to 2 S of London
Chariot 1 moves into London and loads onto Galley 3
Spoiler:
By doing so, we could lose London and all of our Units inside of London if Churchill has a Galley with Units nearby, as our Units aboard boats will not defend the City and will just die to even a Warrior attacker--but, Galley 2 should have spotted such a Galley of Churchill's if one existed.
If Churchill doesn't have a Galley nearby, we can gain a future extra turn of healing our Chariot 1 by loading it on a turn where we've already moved our Chariot 1.
Workers
Worker 4 (in England)
Name him Worker 4
Select him and press Ctrl + 4 to number him
Move him 1 SW Horse, 1 SE G For Road (1 W of London) and start Chopping
Turn 76
EDIT: Lyons completes Granary -> builds a Chariot
Create an Academy in Paris
Science Rate 100% on Currency
EDIT: Open Borders with Frederick
Cities EDIT: Paris continues building an Axeman
Paris fires the Scientists (now that we have our Great Scientist)
Paris works: Wheat, Deer, Fur, Copper, and 1 Unhappy face
XO Cognac works: Fish, Cow, and Horse
XO Cognac builds a Horse Archer
Units EDIT: Axe 3 Promotes to Woodsman II and moves 1 NE Horse > 1 NE Fur (he can't move 3 squares in the span of one turn, as originally hoped)
Chariot 2 Skips his turn in York (to help us visually look for Churchill's Galleys in in western England)
Galley 1 with HA 3 sails 2 SE (to 1 W of Orleans)
Galley 2 confirms that no Galley of Churchill's is visible
Galley 2 and its Scout keep exploring toward the north-east (or east if we've run out of Coastal "ocean" squares)
Galley 3 stays in London
Galley 4 sails 2 NE to 2 E of London EDIT: Chariot 3 moves toward Hamburg to reveal what's inside of that City
Warrior 1 Fortifies in Orleans
Worker 1:
i. Move 1 NW G (1 N of the Horse), partial Road, and STOP
Worker 2:
i. Camp the Fur
Worker 3:
i. Move 1 N G (1 SE of Orleans) and Road
Turn 77
Paris switches to the Settler
Paris 3-pop-whips the Settler
Paris works: Wheat, Deer, and Fur
XO Cognac steals the Copper
XO Cognac works: Fish, Cow, Horse, and Copper
XO Cognac builds a Chariot (to avoid putting too many Hammers into the Horse Archer)
Units EDIT: Axeman 3 explores 1 NE (3 N of London) so that we can see if Churchill has a Galley coming toward London. If there is no Galley, feel free to explore one more square
If it's not obvious what to do with a Unit, particularly the boats, don't move it until the next mini-turnset
We won't have favourable odds against Germany's Combat I Axeman unless we throw away 80 Gold to lose our Warrior upgraded to an Axeman (based on the odds), only to be able to counter-attack on the following turn with our Chariot, and then be down 1 City Defender and out 80 Gold. Concur that that's not a good option.
The other alternative is to very likely lose our Chariot on defence, rush to get our Horse Archer into Orleans, then put the Horse Archer in serious danger of also being lost. This is the alternative I had in mind.
Since the Axeman is Combat I, it has more than 79% odds of winning and would gain 2 XP for its second Promotion, likely continuing up the Combat line with Combat II. If it wins with no damage, it would then have 6 Strength and would have 50-50 odds of also killing our Horse Archer. Follow that, but what are the odds of his winning without damage? Indeed, what are the odds that he will attack 2 units rather than move to pillage the iron?
The Axeman could kill both of our Units and . . . we'd be forced into a Peace Treaty,
We won't make any headway against Frederick if we have to first take a 10-turn Peace Treaty. True, but isn't it pretty likely that our HA will win and get its own valuable promotion? We'd avoid a cease fire and be in pretty good shape to attack Hamburg fairly soon. Not sure it isn't a chance worth taking. If we do take a cease fire, I'd opt for going after Lisbon next, rather than have to defend against a potentially powerful German counterattack on Hamburg and perhaps Orleans too. Rather stay on the offensive.
Sure, we could do that, with a Chariot sitting on a Galley inside of London acting as our Military Police Unit. Why does he need to be loaded on and tie the galley to London? Let's be vigilant for Churchill's Galleys, though, so that they don't recapture London when there's no one defending it (Units aboard of a Galley will not defend the City in BtS). Recognize the hidden-units-on-galley threat (though would bet he doesn't have another one). Might capture his worker back too, if we chop a coastal forest. Need to explore and find out what he does have.
Another thought is that with The Great Lighthouse coming even sooner than expected, due to the extra Culture, we can start Quarrying our G Stone in 2 turns' time. So, Worker 1 could move 1 NW G (1 N of our Horse) and partial Road, then move to the G Stone and immediately start Quarrying.
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I sincerely hope that you'll take some time to reconsider!
Our true opponents are the other teams.
), with Frederick hopefully sending the bulk of his forces toward Alex, at least momentarily.
