SGOTM8 - Cutlery

[Tubby Rower]

Ok jb. you got it? go get him!!

 

[Beorn-eL-Feared]

I just wanted to say we are not trailing so bad in the QSC:
http://gotm.civfanatics.net/results/sgotm_qsc_results.php

Looks like we did pretty good on science but were somewhat behind on food and production. Probably due to sheer population count. No extra contacts from anyone, so that's all good.

 

[jb1964]

[Edit - Forted is a 10% defense multiplier - please correct me if I'm wrong]
I'll be playing methodically this evening. Last night was the other SG.

Concensus seems to be to wait from some more troops to reduce the risk of not capturing Beijing and to have enough reinforcements to reduce the flip risk.

Rough strength estimate...
Spear (2), Hill (50%), Forted (10 or 25%), Size 8 (50%)
2.0 * 1.5 * 1.1 * 1.5 = 4.95
Is this calculation correct?

4 reg spears and a vet horse 4*3*4.95 + 1*4*2.5 = 69.40 strength
Using the same logic we have 98 points of offensive strength (11*2*4 + 1*2*5). We'll need more punch before we crack this nut.

I'll take a real close look at what reinforcements can be there on what turn.

I'm not going to join any workers to the city until it is sufficiently starved. IIRC it's always your native people that get bumped off first when the population is shaved down.

 

[Beorn-eL-Feared]

It is indeed the latest pop additions that get a shaving. Good calcs, that's the kind of thing that make a game easier and clearer

 

[jb1964]

Another way to look at this is that, according to my calcs, a vet archer will win ~25% (ave 27%, stdev 5%) versus the forted spears in Beijing.

Win is defined as: Base Def * Mult * Rand() < Base Off * Rand()

4 regular spears give 12 hps so we'll need to be attacking with a minimum of 48 hps, or 12 archers/horses. Horses would be better so we would have something to occupy the city.

I also love it when a stack of cats give you an accurate count of the defenders.

 

[Minute Man]

Rough strength estimate...
Spear (2), Hill (50%), Forted (10 or 25%), Size 8 (50%)
2.0 * 1.5 * 1.1 * 1.5 = 4.95
Is this calculation correct?

Two errors. First, forted is actually 25%. Second, the bonuses add, not multiply. So the correct formula is 2.0 * (1.5 + 0.25 + 0.5), yielding a strength of 4.5.

Another way to look at this is that, according to my calcs, a vet archer will win ~25% (ave 27%, stdev 5%) versus the forted spears in Beijing.

Win is defined as: Base Def * Mult * Rand() < Base Off * Rand()

4 regular spears give 12 hps so we'll need to be attacking with a minimum of 48 hps, or 12 archers/horses. Horses would be better so we would have something to occupy the city.

Again, that's not quite the right way to think about it. A 25% chance of winning a battle doesn't mean we need 4x as many hitpoints, since any damage we do will carry over to later battles. Rather, our ratio of winning rounds is 2 / 4.5, so we're going to lose 2.25 hp for every one that we take off. Given four regular spears (though I'm pretty sure I promoted at least one of them), that implies we're going to lose 27 hp in the battle, assuming neutral RNG luck.

That implies 7 vet units, but I think we should send more than that because (a) there could be more defenders (and some of them will promote) and (b) we could have bad luck. Also keep in mind that horses are a little less efficient because sometimes they retreat. Twelve or so (plus cats) is probably a minimum, and I really wouldn't mind having more.

 

[MeteorPunch]

lurker's comment: hi guys. town captor simulator is an simple, easy to use progam for simple minded folk such as ourselves. It shows the stats for units to take over cities.

 

[Tubby Rower]

Ok I ran it through Offa's town capture simulator (Thanks MP) and got these results. It implies that no cats were used so it's worst case with what we have in Horsetooth Jewels right now and no more.

 

[Tubby Rower]

I re-ran it with the horse (fast attacker) last instead of first and the vet spear 1st instead of last and it came out as 66.19%. Which is better so attack with the horse last.

Then I ran it for 300,000 simulations and it comes up with 65.8% which is probably a little more accurate since it involves more simulation.

 

[Tubby Rower]

By adding one more horse to the mix the percentage jumped up to ~75%. So wait on that horse by Chicago Cutlery to get there then go after it.

If you add in the 2 spears it comes out to 83.4%. Take them with you too. If anything else they can cover the stack.

I would go ahead and get them in position so that we are only waiting on that horse to get to Bejing (it has 2 movement points where as everything else can only move 1)then go after Beijing. After taking it (or <<gulp>> losing all of our forces), make peace with Mao and start the build up for Alex.

Remember to cancel the Alliance with Alex before signing peace and also try to get Tatung first then see if he'll throw in Teintsin

EDIT::: enough work for me today, I'm going home.

 

[soul_warrior]

all this number crunching is painful.
i use a simpler formulae.
i want 2-3 attackers per citizen.
the more the merrier.
if we can get 14 attackers, or even more, all the better.

i know its not scientific, but i work on an average of 2/3 of the force will be killed off.
which is very close to tubby's estimate.

i always try to use the retreaters about mid-late attack, as the slower are usually stronger (not the case here)

well,ill stop babbling. its juust that i took my lil' sis to get tattooed.
which means too many in me right now.

 

[jb1964]

Thank you very much for the input. It's been an education.

I was always counting on bringing the spears with but would not consider using them unless I knew there was but a single beat-up archer.

I really want occupation forces to be able to hold and quell the city.

My little sister is 40 years old today.

 

[Tubby Rower]

Sorry about the nerdy vomit....

I'm heading up the Department of Geeks and Numbers on Team KISS in the MTDG. I guess some just carried over.

Enjoy the party and good luck with the seige!!

 

[Beorn-eL-Feared]

Don't bother about the nerd , I've got a handful of cadets that'll wipe it out

I'd clearly call this a go with that dude from the south tagging along. Add 3 cats and they're toast

 

[Admiral Kutzov]

methinks (yes, that happens, everyone skip the obvious jokes) that we should take the city whatever will work just get enough rock throwers there to reduce the defense.

 

[jb1964]

All does not go well.... Turns through 5...

Turn 0 – 150 BC
Move settler and spear on tile N of mined grass.
WFC can give up the BG for a mined grass and not lose a turn on the FP.
Pearl takes the BG and drops a turn off the cat.
Entertainers switched to taxmen. WST MM’ed for settler in one.

IBT: Another notification that the Chinese are building the GL

Turn 1 – 130 BC
Found Walnut Bowls – Library.
Horse moves off to help take Beijing.
Two settlers move N for no particular site.
Workers are moving N of mountains to clear jungle.
Pushing entertainment to 40% buys us nothing on production so it stays at 30%.

IBT: Construction begets Currency
It appears Viking galleys have entered our waters, yuck, on our west coast.
Again the Chinese are building the GL.

Turn 2 – 110 BC
Our rear is wide open. Should the Vikes choose to attack we would be in a world of hurt. Their galleys have 7 movement! Probably loaded w/ a settler and spear.
Hmmm, when did we meet the Japanese?

We can trade Rep to the Vikes for Currency.
The Japanese have Rep, Mon and Currency.
We can also get Currency and 30g from Alex for Rep.
Alex is already a Monarchy so I don’t see where Rep benefits him. I make the deal and set for Feud. Alex is in Anarchy. I guess he likes the idea of a Republic. I wish I could have held off on this but was afraid of losing the opportunity.
And since Ragnar is heading up the coast I’ll sell him contact w/ Alex for contact w/ Caesar and his TM.
Contact w/ Alex to Tokugawa for TM and 41g. He already has Feud.

Next turn we’ll cross the Chinese boarder w/ the extra horse. If Ragnar wants our butt’s in a sling there’s nothing we can do to stop him.

IBT: Ragnar sails on. Elisabeth wants to trade maps for a price. Elisabeth is also in the Middle ages w/ Feudalism. WM to England for TM and 52g.
The Chinese run their elite horse out and it retreats w/ 1hp after bringing a vet spear to 2hp which heals to 3/4.
Dorking around w/ MM I managed to leave PartHV in an unhappy state.

Turn 3 – 90 BC
Holy crud! Alex traded for construction, went into the MA’s, drew Engineering and traded for Feud.
I’m setting up WST for a horse. We need attack more than we need more settlers.
The stack sallies forward towards Beijing.
I switch the research to Mono in hopes of a peace dividend after Beijing to get to it first.

IBT: Ragnar keeps moving. Kewl! An archer moves north out of Beijing.

Turn 4 – 70 BC
Nothing of note. Just moving in on Beijing. Horse joins up.

IBT: Nothing

Turn 5 – 50 BC
The assault of Beijing… starts well but goes nowhere...
Cats hit elite spear, vet spear, elite (4/5) again and then miss a regular spear.
Archer 1 – dies, no hits (0-1)
Archer 2 – ¼, kills vet spear (1-1)
Archer 3 – ¼, kills reg spear (2-1)
Archer 4 – 2/4, kills reg spear (still on the regular spears) (3-1)
Archer 5 – dies, 1hit but promotes spear ¾ (3-2)
Archer 6 – ¼, kills reg spear (still another regular spear appears) (4-2)
Archer 7 – dies, promotes regular spear (4/4) (4-3)
Archer 8 – dies, no hits on vet spear (4-4)
Archer 9 – dies, vet promotes (5/5) (4-5)
Archer 10 – dies, no hits on spear (5/5) (4-6)
Three vet horses all retreat at ¼ and do a single hit on the elite spear. (4-6-3)
It’s time to retreat w/ the elite archer and two spears to cover the 3 horses and 4 cats.
There are 3/5,3/4, and 4/5 spears, an archer and a 1/4 horse, minimum in Beijing.

 

[Beorn-eL-Feared]

I think the outcome is not so dire. We'll be back with more horses (how many can be rushed sometime soon?) and we'll take it. Killing 4 and losing 6 on a battle where we outnumber/underpower them 2 to 1 is not so bad imo. We'll just have to use some perseverance.

And thanks for the minimap

 

[eldar]

I agree; that's not as bad as it looks, surely? We should have enough to finish it off, with more coming? And my, England is big!

 

[Beorn-eL-Feared]

Just in size, their towns have too much space for themselves. It's not the size that matters they say ...
Oh well they lied but Japan looks meaner to me

 

[soul_warrior]

I agree; that's not as bad as it looks, surely? We should have enough to finish it off, with more coming?!

right. we just wait for some more troops to arrive, and finish them off then.

And my, England is big!

always was bigger than life....
i still remember the times when the world was mapped in pink, and the sun never set...