Skullduggery Thread for Demohacking

Yeah, I was wondering myself too how whipped down empire (WPC) is supposed to tech to Construction to field numerous catapults, but maybe we will see some interesting turn-around.

Now I saw that WPC are not that whipped down - last time Yossa got the population numbers they got 17 citizens. Not much less than Apolyton (19) for example. But when they whipped dogs instead of workers, this must have given some effect on their empire, right?
 
I have sent my spies ahead in anticipation of Ambassador Caledorn's trip to Realm's Beyond. They have reported back some details about the lay of the land.

Spoiler :
RB%20Lands.png

The first report I received is that the Corn on the western coast of Thunder Bay remains uncultivated, RB has not farmed this land yet. Good news!

Moving further west and north, my spies discovered that RB has pastured their Pigs and mined their Copper. They have no road on the Pigs, but the Copper is connected to their empire.

From there, my spies moved north and east of their Gold city, where they discovered strange new improvements the Egyptians call plantations over one of their Spices. My spies tell me that RB must have learned the secrets of Calendar in order to make such improvements. The Spices have been connected to their empire and bring happiness to all their cities. The city claiming these Spices must be fairly new, or else the knowledge of Calendars has come recently, since there are two other Spices and a Banana grove in the area that have not been similarly improved.

While I cannot be sure, these improvements seem to suggest that RB has planted cities on the grassland tile 1N of Copper (1E of Pigs), and the desert hill 1S of the improved Silks.
 
My spies tell me that RB must have learned the secrets of Calendar in order to make such improvements. The Spices have been connected to their empire and bring happiness to all their cities. The city claiming these Spices must be fairly new, or else the knowledge of Calendars has come recently, since there are two other Spices and a Banana grove in the area that have not been similarly improved.
An old army scout sips slowly from his coffee looking at the maps and says: "I cant be sure, but this spice which is reported as improved must be the city location itself. It fits too nice. Can work the gold when the gold city needs to grow and is on their side of the border, not claiming this rice on our side of the midway. Also, great idea from the intelligence guys to check for resources improvements."

220px-Jim_Bridger.jpg
 
One quick question about Calendar - cant we deduct if RB have this from looking what the tech adviser says? If we have the amounts of beakers needed to discover the tech as we should, then they dont have it, If it is less than it should be, then we know a nation, which have it, assuming RB.
 
One quick question about Calendar - cant we deduct if RB have this from looking what the tech adviser says? If we have the amounts of beakers needed to discover the tech as we should, then they dont have it, If it is less than it should be, then we know a nation, which have it, assuming RB.

Yeah, grant did this trick earlier to confirm one of RB's other techs. I don't remember exactly what to look for here, so maybe grant could log in and take a look? We know more teams this time around, though, so that makes it harder to be sure which of our known rivals is giving us the bonus.

I took another look at that screenshop a few posts up, and compared it to the area back when we first uncovered it (literally 50 turns ago). I was checking to see where there were forest chops, to get another idea of where they're settling and how much they're chopping.

Spoiler :
Future%20(T89)%20Chops.png


Future%20(T89)%20Chops.png

Based on the lack of a farm on the Corn or any chops in that area (in fact it is so pristine that there has been a forest growth), I really don't think they have settled the western shore of Thunder Bay. This is great news for us.

In the north, they have chopped the jungle under the Banana, so a Plantation there is probably coming soon. I thought for a second that maybe they had put their city on top of the Banana not the Spice, but that's not possible because the mouse-over is showing a plantation is required on the Banana, but not the Spice.

So we know for sure that they have IW and Calendar. They got a Classical era tech on T75, and just recently got enough points for another on T87. They had enough points for a Classical tech on T79 as well, but I divided that up between pop and an Ancient tech. So they have between 2-3 Classical techs, and at a minimum IW and Calendar. Perhaps their 3rd is Maths, if they actually do have a 3rd.

The next step is to check out the area with tile yields on. If that bare plains tile in the middle of that vast forest to RB's east has a second hammer yield, that means that is their Iron.
 
The game says we could tech Calendar for 70 turns with only 7 beakers, so thats 490 beakers and hovering Calendar says 630 beakers. We have 1 prerequisite. Anyone knows what discount the formula for 1 prerequisite gives? Or what gives for one met nation knowing the tech?
 
Here is the formula:

Spoiler :
Calculating the Known Civilizations w/ Tech modifier

1) Multiply 0.30 by the number of KNOWN, LIVING civilizations, who have the tech.

2) Divide by the number of civilizations which STARTED on the map and ROUND DOWN to the hundredth place (0.01) of the quotient.

3) Add 2) to 1

Tech Known by Civilizations modifier = 1 + RDDW (0.30 * # known Civs who have the tech / # of Civs who started the game

Calculating the Prerequisites modifier

1) Start with 1. If the technology does NOT have a minimum requirement (i.e., the starting techs = Fishing, The Wheel, Agriculture, Hunting, Mysticism, Mining), then use 1 AS the modifier.

2) Add 0.2 to 1) if a Technology has a MINIMUM Requirement that the player has met. Note: Even if a tech has MANY MANDATORY PREREQUISITES, it will still only give you a boost of 1.2 because you MUST have all those prerequisites to research the tech. (IOW, the minimum requirement IS all of those prerequisites.)

3) Add 0.2 to 2) for EACH ADDITIONAL OPTIONAL Prerequisite that the player has met.

Requirements modifier = 1 + (0.2 * MINIMUM Req. met) + (0.2 * # of Optional Prereq. met)

Req
So for having 1 pre-req, we get a 20% bonus. We get 9 / 30 = 3.33% bonus for each civ we know that already has the Tech. In this case, we only need to research 490 of 630 beakers to get the tech, which means we're getting the tech for 77.77% of the true cost. This is a 23.33% bonus, so exactly one known rival has researched Calendar. Since RB has that Spice connected to their empire, I'd say it's a pretty safe bet that they are the team who has it.


What I really came here to post, though, is that we got German graphs this turn.

Spoiler :
Power%20(APT).png

We now know who took over as Rival Best Power. See WPC's little dip there where the Germans take over as Power leaders? That was the huge loss we calculated to be 3 Dogs and 1 other miscellaneous unit. That is miniscule compared to the huge drop they took when the Germans got their GG. WPC could be in for a world of hurt here. However, it does look like they've picked up their unit-building, while the Germans are maybe starting to taper off?
 
Wow, it's been a couple weeks since I last updated this thread. I'm still keeping the spreadsheet updated, but as more stuff is going on, it's getting more difficult and less important to track little things like the individual population growths. In order to get us caught up, I'll go over the important stuff that each team has been up to, but leave out stuff like individual city growths and land increases. I'll go from the bottom of the scoreboard to the top.

WPC: 180
This one is the easiest, since they've barely had any score increases for the past 15 turns. They finally settled their 5th city on T88. After that, they didn't get another score increase until T95, when they finished researching a Classical Era tech. This took them about 20 turns to complete, so their tech rate is pretty bad right now. For their sake, I hope this was an economic tech like Monarchy or Maths, and not a war tech like HBR or IW.

Spaniards: 183
Back on T84, the Spaniards had a big 15-point score increase which probably included a Classical Era tech. Probably not IW since we haven't seen much Jungle in their land, or any swords. Probably not MC since we haven't seen Forges or Triremes. Probably not HBR since we haven't seen any HA's. That leaves Monarchy or Maths as the most likely candidates. On T89 they performed a 2-pop whip, then on T90 they did another 2-pop whip and a 1-pop whip. Hard to tell exactly what they were whipping, but when multiple whips come in around the same time, that sometimes implies that a concentrated effort is being made to get a lot of... something? At any rate, one of those might have just been a Settler, since they finally settled their 5th city on T91. This is the spot that they had reserved with us. Just now, on T96, they have completed another tech, and again it is a Classical Era tech.

Germans: 187
The Germans had been on track to be major contenders in this game before WPC ruined that for them. Thanks WPC! It looks like they're starting to get themselves back on track now, so let's just hope they're strong enough to keep RB's northern expansion in check. So, let's take a look at what they've been up to. They had some weird increases back around T85 that are confusing me. It's possible they researched an ancient tech, but I'm not too sure about that. They did (re)settle their 6th city on T88. WPC also settled a new city on this turn, and it was the first new city for either team since the war started, so I think the fighting was pretty much over for both of them by this point. On T95, they got 6 points, probably for another Ancient tech, and then settled their 7th city on the same turn.

UCiv: 249
And now we take a huge score jump to bring us to the middle-of-the-pack teams. Back on T84, UCiv settled their 8th city. On T88, they had a weird score increase that probably included land points, and may have included an Ancient era tech. On T92, they settled their 9th city. T94 was an exciting turn for them. They finished a Classical Era tech and revolted to HR, so this must have been Monarchy. They also settled their 10th city this turn. And on T96, they have gotten a 15-point increase, which could potentially include another Classical Era tech. If so, that's a pretty fast research rate to finish two Classical techs back to back.

CivPlayers: 261
CP researched a Classical era tech on T87. They settled their 7th city on T89. This was their second Classical tech, since they Oracled CoL back on T67. I put them down for Maths. On T93, they performed three 1-pop whips. Since then, their only score changes have been pop growths and whips. Interestingly, the vast majority of their whips have been of the inefficient 1-pop variety. Hopefully we'll get to meet them soon and figure out what they've been up to first-hand.

CFC: 263
Well, we know what we've been up to. Moving right up the scoreboard, I think we're in a much stronger position now then we were even just 15 turns ago.

Apolyton: 286
Way back on T83, Poly got a big 18-point score increase. I have to assume that a Classical tech was part of this. They already got one Classical tech back on T78 that I put down as IW, so maybe this one was HBR, Maths or Monarchy? Between T84-T87, they performed two 2-pop whips and a 3-pop whip. On T87, they got a score increase that could potentially include an Ancient tech. On T91, they settled their 7th city. On T92 and T94, they got more score increases that could have included Ancient techs. If these all included techs, then they have finished researching every single Ancient tech, but that seems unlikely so I'm probably incorrectly assigning land or pop points to tech. On T95, they got 12 points so this is almost certainly a Classical Tech. Maybe Metal Casting this time? Hard to tell. My concern is that they are going for war techs like IW, HBR or Maths->Construction. With the Germans on one side and the Spaniards on the other side, they could potentially have their pick of weak teams to take out...

CivFr: 290
CivFr is quite an enigma. We don't have a good idea of where they are on the map or who they might have met. They have a pretty solid score right now, but this is slightly inflated by land points from their Cre trait and early REXing. They are also consistently getting small score increases on almost every turn, whether for steady pop growths or border pops, I can't be positive. On T83 they completed their second Classical era tech. I have Maths down as their T74 tech, so I'll switch things up and put them down for Calendar for this tech. They might have gotten an Ancient tech on T93 and/or T94, but this could have been land or pop points, also. And just now on T96, they have settled their 8th city.

RB: 358
And here we take our final leap up to the clear #1 team at this point. On T83, they settled their 8th city. On T84, they popped their Great Prophet and used it to build the Hindu Shrine. On T87 they got a large score increase that probably included a Classical Tech. I'm putting this one down for Calendar, since we know that they're building plantations. On T90, they got another large score, but I doubt this one included a classical tech. More likely it was just some combo of land and pop. They planted their 9th city on T91. On T93, they got a huge 20-point increase, so this time I am putting them down for a Classical tech. I'm thinking this one might have been Metal Casting. On T94, they performed a 2-pop whip and a pair of 3-pop whips, perhaps to complete Forges in some of their core cities? If this was the case, we should be able to see them when we zoom into those cities by now, so I'll check if I get a chance to log into the game. And just now on T96, they got another large 18-point score increase, which again probably includes a classical tech. This one I'm not sure about, but I'll keep my eyes open for clues as we continue to scope out their lands.

...

That's it for now. If anyone has any specific questions about what the other teams are doing that you want me to look into, just let me know and I'll see if it's something we can deduce.
 
Yikes! I'd forgotten how strong RB is. I don't think I'll feel truly competitive until our GNP exceeds theirs.

On another note, maybe our first war should be against the Spaniards - it would really suck if we took out UCiv only to see Apolytonian troops in Zululand.
 
CivPlayers: 261
... Interestingly, the vast majority of their whips have been of the inefficient 1-pop variety. ...
Lets not forget they have the Sacrificial Altar, so 2 of their 1-pop whips one after another in one city are just as fine as our 2-pop whips regarding the unhappiness caused.

Another thing is CP are actually way worse developed than us. They have almost 30 points from Oracle and CoL, where our points are pure population/land/researched techs. Which is surprising, (to me at least) as OT4E is one of the best players around.

Apolyton: 286
... Between T84-T87, they performed two 2-pop whips and a 3-pop whip.
MZprox loves the whip.

I don't think I'll feel truly competitive until our GNP exceeds theirs.
They got quite scary research capabilities indeed now when described in techs in turns. But this is not to be surprising as I am sure they had collected gold to burn trough their academy, which unfortunately for them just did not happened, so they just had to continue teching and a classical tech each 6 turns (or even 3 turns) at 100% slider is not something to be amused at. As of GNP, we wont be surpassing their soon with all their culture generating buildings (2 wonders and already matured monuments everywhere is like 50 GNP just like that), but in terms of pure research we might well be on par with them once we get our academy, we connect routes to RB and Spaniards and get Currency. All this I think is due in some 6-7 turns for us.

On another note, maybe our first war should be against the Spaniards - it would really suck if we took out UCiv only to see Apolytonian troops in Zululand.
I doubt they will risk their expansion so early to go to war when they must have still quite a land to settle. Same applies to us btw. And as of our first war, it will be profitable after some 50 turns from now.
 
SilentConfusion checking in.

I'm really impressed with all the work you've done YossarianLives. If anyone knows how much work it is to do what you're doing, I do.

I don't have the time to do a whole lot with demographics, and I need to find my copy of Civ 4, but I can look at the numbers and possibly take some small tasks. I have requested to be added to the google shared document.
 
I can see the shared excel files now. And I have access to the screenshots on The Fast Worker. For a start, YossarianLives, I could update the Demographics which are a few turns behind. I will not start unless you say go, because I don't want to step on whatever system you have setup.

If there are other projects that you are working on that I could do, let me know. I'm free all day as it's a holiday here in Mexico.

In the meantime, I'll browse through the past numbers. I have to get caught up on Civ 4 stuff, as I've been playing only Civ 5 for a while.
 
Greetings SilentConfusion! I am very excited to have you on the team and helping out with the demohacking. Yes, please feel free to help catch us up on the Demographics numbers, and feel welcome to make any and all updates or revisions you think would be helpful. This is the team's spreadsheet, not mine.

As far as any other projects, there's nothing terribly pressing that I can think of. Probably the most important thing that I have gotten way off track on is the power rankings for each team. If you have any tricks up your sleeve to give us a better idea about the individual teams' power scores, that would be very helpful. At this point, we're probably too far behind to be able to keep an accurate accounting of this, though.

If there is anything else you can demo-hack for us that require specific screenshots or info, let me know and I will post that in here for you. For example, Maga_R was getting us production and GNP numbers for RB based on the Espionage screen.

Also, feliz Dia de la Constitucion! I've been helping with translations of our messages to the Spanish team, but I would certainly appreciate if you could check over my work, since Spanish is not my first language.
 
Greetings SilentConfusion! I am very excited to have you on the team and helping out with the demohacking. Yes, please feel free to help catch us up on the Demographics numbers, and feel welcome to make any and all updates or revisions you think would be helpful. This is the team's spreadsheet, not mine.

I will post here if I change anything so that people will know. I just wanted to make sure you didn't already have some kind of process that I'd be messing up by making changes.

As far as any other projects, there's nothing terribly pressing that I can think of. Probably the most important thing that I have gotten way off track on is the power rankings for each team. If you have any tricks up your sleeve to give us a better idea about the individual teams' power scores, that would be very helpful. At this point, we're probably too far behind to be able to keep an accurate accounting of this, though.

I'll update the demographics from the screenshots and see what I can do with back interpretation of Power numbers. No way to tell if I can find concrete stuff that you haven't already, but I'll see what I can do.

If there is anything else you can demo-hack for us that require specific screenshots or info, let me know and I will post that in here for you. For example, Maga_R was getting us production and GNP numbers for RB based on the Espionage screen.

I will let you know if other screenshots would help.

Also, feliz Dia de la Constitucion! I've been helping with translations of our messages to the Spanish team, but I would certainly appreciate if you could check over my work, since Spanish is not my first language.

Spanish isn't my first language either, but it's becoming my second and I can look over some stuff. Gracias, igualmente.
 
I'm not aware of very many changes to Civ 4 (updates or patches) since the last demogame. YossarianLives has already posted most of this information, but there might still be use for the information in the old Team AMAZON thread which you can find here. Look in the second post. It is arranged in nesting spoilers for easy reference.
 
Thanks for posting that link. I had been reading the Amazon threads since they got unlocked, but I guess I missed that one somehow. I'm very impressed by the explanations you give on what information is available and how to use it to deduce what the other teams are doing. If you don't mind, I might edit some of those explanations into my own opening posts in this thread.

I just started reading your thread, and wanted to share this little gem here with our CFC teammates. Nabaxo, who was one of RB's most vocal members against allowing Spy missions in this game, posted this regarding a potential rule in the last MTDG to disallow a technique to hide which tech you're researching:

FFS! Excuse my language but that is as bad a reason as they come! You shouldn't make something illegal because of WHINE! Yes, that's what it is! This is a multiplayer game that we are playing at a high level, pretty much anything should go! This article comes to mind: http://www.sirlin.net/ptw

Now, most of the time I think Sirlin is pretty ******** and can be pretty narrow-minded on his way of playing games, but now we are playing a competitive game at a fairly high level and I think it applies. If we start to impose rules because some people think it's "unfair" as opposed to come up with new strategies to deal with them, it will take a lot of the competition out of the game. You don't see top level Street Fighter and Tekken players whine that certain combos are unfair. If such a combo surfaces, people instead try to find out ways to counter them. There is a lot of mind-games involved in all competitive multiplayer games, from fighting games such as Street Fighter, that demand split-second reflexes all the way to competitive Pokémon battling (yes, I have been and am involved competitive Pokémon :P ), and that's half the fun and two thirds of the competition!
Emphasis added.
 
Thanks for posting that link. I had been reading the Amazon threads since they got unlocked, but I guess I missed that one somehow. I'm very impressed by the explanations you give on what information is available and how to use it to deduce what the other teams are doing. If you don't mind, I might edit some of those explanations into my own opening posts in this thread.

You can use any and all of that information in this thread or elsewhere. In the second post of that thread I explain the various sources for my information. Much of my information is from a fantastic thread in an Apolyton Demo Game in which the Realms Beyond team did an amazing amount of demo-hacking which helped lead their team to victory (link here). If any demo-hackers haven't read that thread, it's interesting. Like classic literature for the world of demo-hacking. And just a note: Most of the heavy hitters from that thread are on the roster list for Realms Beyond, so they most definitely will be demo-hacking us, perhaps better than we are demo-hacking them. Keep that in mind when wondering whether Realms Beyond knows what our numbers are.

I just started reading your thread, and wanted to share this little gem here with our CFC teammates. Nabaxo, who was one of RB's most vocal members against allowing Spy missions in this game, posted this regarding a potential rule in the last MTDG to disallow a technique to hide which tech you're researching:


Emphasis added.

I don't quite understand what this means. What did nabaxo do?
 
I don't quite understand what this means. What did nabaxo do?
In the setup phase of ISDG2012, RB wanted spies completely banned at first, then they wanted Civic and Religions Swap Missions banned and Nabaxo is part of the RB team and seems was vocal in explaining how "broken" those missions are along with his friend Lord Parkin. In contrast to what he said about banning other techniques in MTDG2, where he expresses completely the opposite opinion - that every technique must be allowed and good players instead of whining, must try to find a way to deal with this technique. Which last was our (CFC) position on the case.
 
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