Skullduggery Thread for Demohacking

[SilentConfusion]

This is awesome work SilentConfusion! You rock.

I'll get you the requested screenshot in a few hours. We've got a couple options for you. I can get you the traditional power graph from the game from the previous 50 turns, but this will be jumbled with the graphs from all the other teams we have met. I can also get you a graph from the APT website (that's the double-move mod we're using for this game), where we can filter out the other teams, so it will just show our graph, RB's graph, and graphs representing the Best and Worst power. However, this would be for the first 100 turns of the game, I can't set it to just do the 50 previous turns.

Well, at 2metraninja's request I logged into the game and took a bunch of screenshots before the end of the turn. I just have to figure out how to upload them to The Fast Worker with Dropbox. I made sure to take screenshots of everything I could think of, including the power graph, but if you can tell me how to get APTmod working for me. I mean I have the mod loaded in my mods folder and I used that when logging in, but how do I see the nice screens I've seen people showing?

 

[YossarianLives]

POWER GRAPHS

In-game power graph from T100.

Spoiler :

APT Power graph of just RB from T99.

Spoiler :

 

[YossarianLives]

Haha, funny crosspost

If you can tell me how to get APTmod working for me. I mean I have the mod loaded in my mods folder and I used that when logging in, but how do I see the nice screens I've seen people showing?

It's a website that collects the info, like civstats. To access it:

1. Go to APTMod.com
2. Register
3. Give 2metraninja your nick and ask him to give you access

Once you're in:

1. Click on our game
2. Click on the "Game Detail" dropdown box and select Demographics
3. Have fun looking at all the graphs!

You have to be patient when using the site. It's extremely slow. It's worth it, though. Spend some time clicking on all the different options and exploring.

 

[YossarianLives]

Turn 99

There were no land increases on T79, so all points this turn must be from pop or tech.

Poly settled their 8th city.

CivFr got 12 points, probably for a Classical tech. This would be their 4th Classical tech.

UCiv got 12 points, probably for a Classical tech. This would be their 3rd Classical tech. The also performed a 3-pop whip this turn.

Realms Beyond got a huge 27 point increase. I think 12 points were for a Monarchy, since they revolted into HR and OR this turn. The other 15 points must have been for pop, I guess. That would mean they got 6 new pop across their 12 cities.

CivPlayers got 13 points, must be for 5 new pop. They then performed a pair of 1-pop whips. I mentioned earlier that they're doing a lot of these 1-pop whips, and that this is the most inefficient form of whipping. However, 2metraninja pointed out that with Sacrificial Alters available to this team, 1-pop whips do become very effective after all.

There were a couple other small pop increases this turn that I won't point out individually.

Turn 100

Wow, we finally reached T100! Great milestone. Domestically, we're doing pretty well. We captured the southern barb city this turn. We're one turn away from settling our Isthmus city that will secure our border with RB. We're also one turn away from our first Great Scientist. That said, let's take a look at what our competitors are doing this turn.

There were 22 new land tiles back on T80, so there will be about 15-16 land points this turn. Unfortunately, I am not sure who got them. Rival Best land went up 10 tiles, and I think that's CivFr (but could be RB or someone else).

WPC got 6 points. This is either an Ancient tech, or some combo of pop + land.

Poly got 19 points. We gave them a Classical techs on T98 and T95, so if they have gotten another already, that's a pretty scary research rate. The remaining 7 points are probably for pop, or maybe pop + land.

Spaniards got 7 points, probably for pop. Now that we have visibility on most of those cities, we should be keeping track of their sizes so we'll know when their points came from pop increases.

Civplayers got 6 points. Again, this might be an Ancient tech, or a pop + land combo. They also performed another 1-pop whip this turn.

RB got 7 points, probably all for pop, and did a 1-pop whip.

UCiv got one pop growth and settled their 11th city this turn.

CivFr got 10 points, I'm thinking 7 for land (if they were Rival Best on T80), and 3 for one pop.

 

[SilentConfusion]

I'm working on a new project. I'd like to know what other players (RB especially) is building in their cities.

For every city that we have actually seen (i.e. just seeing the borders does not count) we can tell how many hammers they have into a build by using the Espionage screen. The formula for hammers is FLOOR((SabatageProductionCost * (TheirEP + 100))/(3 * InvestigateCityCost)). When the hammer value is 0, then they have just finished a build. Right now we can see 8 RB cities, 4 SpAp cities, and 1 CP city. Here are the hammer values for each city (i.e. how many hammers they have in the current build, does not include hammers that are going to go into the build this turn).

RB
Adventure One: 3
Mansa's Muse: 70
Focal Point: 110
Horse Feathers: 27
Gourmet Menu: 27
Seven Tribes: 5
Forbidden Fruit: 34
Eastern Dealers: 0

SpAp
Ulundi: 17
Umgungundlovu: 15
Bulwayo: 6
KwaDukuza: 47

CP
Xochicalco: 23

Things we can tell from this are:
* Eastern Dealers just finished a build
* Focal Point is building something that costs more than 110 hammers.
* Mansa's Muse is building something that costs more than 70 hammers.

If I keep making these numbers we should see when cities hammer counts go to zero and we will know that their build was somewhere between the last recorded hammer count and that plus their hammer output in the city. This can narrow down what was just built. It can show you which cities wonders are being built in because they have a lot of hammers. It can also show you the output of hammers in the city for the last turn. Say Ulundi has 17 hammers now in a build and 23 next turn, then we know they have 5 hammers coming into the build.

If we are close to getting a visual on a city it may be worth going a little out of our way to actually see the city for calculations like this.

 

[2metraninja]

I could make a wild guess that one of those big hammer counts are MoM. The MoM path is strong.

One more thing you remind me just now SC, we can see what deals the other teams have with each-other. We must see if RB have deals with other teams and what deals they have. This can give us somewhat idea of their mutual stance. Also, will tell us if RB are getting Marble from somewhere for MoM.

 

[YossarianLives]

That's great info you've given us! If you can keep this up for every turn, we're going to have a much better idea of where we stand with our neighbors.


This link by T-Hawk at RB gives a simplified formula for getting those same numbers. The formula is Hammers = SabotageCost / InfluenceCivicsCost * 100. Or, if we're in all the same Civics, then replace it with Hammers = SabotageCost / CityRevoltCost * 650 / 6. That might save you a little time.

Eastern Dealers completed a work boat, which was visible in the city at the start of T101. They'll use it to net their clams this turn.

I agree that they're working on MoM right now, so it'll be good to keep an eye on Focal Point and Mansa's Muse, at least, to figure out when they're getting close.

 

[SilentConfusion]

Not sure where I originally got that equation. As far as I know it is from an earlier post of T-hawk's because I studied his posts in depth.

Anyone have a handy list of unit/building/wonder hammer costs? If no one responds I'll find a link to one.

 

[YossarianLives]

I think T-Hawk developed your equation during the Apolyton Demogame. Then about a year ago he posted his simplified equation at RB. Here's what he said at the time:

As many of us know, it's possible to work out the current hammer count in a rival city's production box by looking at the cost shown in the espionage screen for the Sabotage Production mission. Here's the original post at Apolyton.

I just figured out a better way than that formula, so you don't have to go fishing around for the EP numbers on each side. The key is the Influence Civics mission and its constant base cost of 600 and the fact that the exact same multiplier applies to both it and Sabotage.

To add onto the work you're doing, I zoomed in close to the city screens to take a look at the infrastructure in them (on T100):

RB
Adventure One: Palace, Granary, Library, Obelisk (free in all cities)
Mansa's Muse: Granary, Stonehenge, The Kashi Vishwanath (Hindu Shrine), Library, Obelisk
Focal Point: Granary, Obelisk
Horse Feathers: Granary, Obelisk
Gourmet Menu: Granary, Obelisk
Seven Tribes: Granary, Obelisk
Forbidden Fruit: Granary, Obelisk
Eastern Dealers: Granary,Obelisk

SpAp
Ulundi: Palace, Library, Ikhanda
Umgungundlovu: Granary, Library, Ikhanda
Bulwayo: Granary, Monument, Ikhanda
KwaDukuza: No buildings

CP
Xochicalco: No buildings

And finally, maybe these aren't the most convenient links for looking up costs, but here's one for units, and one for buildings.

 

[talonschild]

Remember though, that with Stonehenge those Obelisks came free.

 

[2metraninja]

Anyone have a handy list of unit/building/wonder hammer costs?

Look up google for "Civ4 BTS317 Reference Charts.xls". Its a great tool to use.

 

[2metraninja]

As for RB's buildings, interesting they have only one library. At least where we can see.

 

[SilentConfusion]

Looking at what might be more than 110 hammers. I got the following, aside from wonders:
Forge 120
Courthouse 120
Market 150

If it goes over those numbers I'll say it is almost certainly a wonder.

Also, someone's Espy points has been shooting up since ~T80. It is not RB, WPC, Civforum.de, UCiv, or SpApoly because it is someone we don't have graphs for on APTmod.com. Did someone build the Great Wall around T80? Or is someone using their slider against an opponent? If so it seems it is not someone we have graphs for.

 

[2metraninja]

This espionage monster must be CP. They took CoL from Oracle and ORG trait gives them Courthouses almost for free (1-2 pop whipped). Well done on their side. Only supports the opinion I had already on them for being serious competitor.

 

[SilentConfusion]

RB
Adventure One: Palace, Granary, Library, Obelisk - 8h (before 3, 5; +2/3h per turn; must be full growth mode)
Mansa's Muse: Granary, Stonehenge, The Kashi Vishwanath, Library, Obelisk - 89h (before:70, 80; +10/9h per turn)
Focal Point: Granary, Obelisk - 152h (before: 110, 131; +21h per turn; wonder, maybe HG)
Horse Feathers: Granary, Obelisk - 100h (before: 27, 0; whip overflow and/or chops)
Gourmet Menu: Granary, Obelisk - 55h (before: 27, 38; +11/17 per turn)
Seven Tribes: Granary, Obelisk - 115h (before: 5, 9; chops?)
Forbidden Fruit: Granary, Obelisk - 18h (before: 34, 12; change build 2t ago; since +6 per turn)
Eastern Dealers: Granary,Obelisk - 11h (before: 0, 10; some overflow and +1h per turn)

SpAp
Ulundi: Palace, Library, Ikhanda - 75h (before: 17, 0; whip overflow and/or chops)
Umgungundlovu: Granary, Library, Ikhanda - 71h (before: 15, 24; chops?)
Bulwayo: Granary, Monument, Ikhanda - 0h (before: 6, 12; whip or chop to finish build)
KwaDukuza: No buildings - 0h (before: 47, 0; completed build in 1 turn probably with overflow)

CP
Xochicalco: No buildings - 27h (before: 23, 25; +2h per turn)

Whatever they are building in Focal Point is probably a wonder. They said they will have HG in a few turns, so that may be it, but if it is it is only half built right now. But with chops it may still be done in a few turns. Otherwise they are exaggerating a little. The are gaining 21h per turn in that city. At that rate (with no whips/chops) if it is HG in Focal Point it will take 7 more turns. But, of course, with chops they can make it quicker.

EDIT: If stone is doubling hammers toward HG, shouldn't it be an even number of hammers per turn unless they have some percentage hammer boosting building like a forge? Does Org. Relig. boost wonder production by 25%? If so that could explain the 21h. Is it hammers * 1.5 * 1.25? I think it is the latter. If so they have about 11 base hammers.

 

[YossarianLives]

I don't think they can be building HG in Focal Point, since there is no Aqueduct there, yet. If I'm reading your numbers right, I think Horse Feathers might be a more likely candidate. It looks like they went from 27 hammers to 0 (whipped the Aqueduct to completion), and now they have 100 hammers in overflow (whip overflow into HG x 100% for stone). Would that make sense?

We should be checking for aqueducts in all RB's cities every turn. If we see one built, that is where HG is going. Otherwise, they're building it in the fog.

Is there another Wonder they could be building in Focal Point? With over 150 hammers, it can't be any buildings that are currently available to them...

 

[SilentConfusion]

The don't have aqueduct in either of those two cities, so maybe it's in the fog.

EDIT: It has to be a wonder in Focal Point. And with 6 citizens and low hammer tiles around, not quite sure how it is getting the necessary hammers to put 21h into a build each turn. Maybe they have chopped the last two turns. Currently there are 2 forests around Focal Point. We can watch in the future. Whatever Horse Feathers whipped, there's no aqueduct there now. Maybe Settler.

 

[2metraninja]

Does Org. Relig. boost wonder production by 25%?

That is correct.

Is it hammers * 1.5 * 1.25? I think it is the latter. If so they have about 11 base hammers.

Building a wonder with resource and OR is calculated as each other bonus - they are additive, not multiplicative. So it is ((1+0.25+1)*basehammers. First "1" is the base hammer itself, 0.25 is the OR bonus 25% and the third "1" is the 100% added hammers for the resource) I did not explain it corect for sure, but that is the idea - you have 100% of your hammers anyway before any bonus, then you have 25% OR bonus and 100% again for the resource. This comes to 225% of the hammers or basehammers * 2.25

 

[2metraninja]

EDIT: It has to be a wonder in Focal Point.

I wonder which one. If they are guessing we will be after Pyramids and I think they wont be particularly interested in TGW, then what it is with so many hammers?

Is there another Wonder they could be building in Focal Point? With over 150 hammers, it can't be any buildings that are currently available to them...

MoM without Marble?

 

[SilentConfusion]

I wonder which one. If they are guessing we will be after Pyramids and I think they wont be particularly interested in TGW, then what it is with so many hammers?


MoM without Marble?

Whatever they are building in Focal Point it is getting a 100% resource boost because the most hammers they could have is about 9 and 9*2.25 = ~21. So it must be a Wonder with a multiplier, but since you cannot see an aqueduct in the city it cannot be the Hanging Gardens. Let's look at whatever wonders they could be building with bonuses.

The Great Wall (250h) with Stone
The Pyramids (500h) with Stone
Schwedagon Paya (450h) with Gold

Are there any other wonders they might have the techs for that they might have a bonus for?