The "percentage chance of success" is a misnomer - any ship with at least 15 structurals and one of each other kind of part (components and modules) seems to get there, but you get less "victory points" when you have less than 100% "chance of success". In particular, when you only have one of each type of component (propulsion and fuel) you will have a very slow ship, even with Fusion Power. Consider whether adding one or two more of each component type will get your ship there in less time than it takes to build the extras (depends on how many years are going by with each turn at the time you launch). There are several threads that relate number of spaceship parts to transit time, like this one:
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